Offishial News: The case for keeping Edward Cabrera in Miami for 2026

[Ely Sussman]

The Miami Marlins are expected to trade Edward Cabrera before the Major League Baseball season begins. The rationale behind this stance is simple: Cabrera's market value has soared following his successful 2025 campaign and the club doesn't fully trust him to replicate that production.

But what if they're wrong? Would the benefits of retaining Cabrera for a bit longer outweigh those provided by a package of presumably younger, more controllable players?

His stuff looks better than ever. He just set a new career-high for average four-seam fastball velocity (97.0 mph) and his curveball has become a nasty complement to his signature changeup. Last season, the 27-year-old demonstrated a newfound willingness to fill up the strike zone, particularly early in counts, culminating in by far his lowest walk rate as a big leaguer. Working from a lower, more comfortable arm slot and once again collaborating with pitching coach Daniel Moskos, what's stopping him from continuing that?

By any measure, Marlins starting pitchers were mediocre in 2025 even with Cabrera—the unit ranked tied for 18th in MLB in FIP, 24th in innings pitched and 26th in ERA. Why is it seemingly so widely assumed that the rotation will be fine without him? The eventual call-ups of top pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling could help, but look no further than Cabrera himself for a reminder that we shouldn't set expectations on players during their debut year (5.81 ERA and 6.63 FIP in 2021).

Cabrera is still three full years away from free agency. What combination of assets could the Marlins realistically receive in exchange that would translate to more wins than Cabrera is projected to provide over that span? The most lopsided trades in recent memory that favored the team parting with its controllable starter—Rays trading Chris Archer, White Sox trading José Quintana—were consummated midseason when wannabe contenders had to throw caution to the wind. You can't manufacture that sense of urgency in January.

All things considered, I actually do believe now is the appropriate time to trade Cabby! As the previous few paragraphs expressed, though, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a risky and multi-layered decision.

Marlins Opening Day is only 80 days away.

🔹 Right-hander Jack Ralston is the sixth confirmed Marlins minor league free agent signing of the offseason. He will have to be improve his control to earn a call-up from Triple-A Jacksonville.

🔹 Kevin Barral helmed our latest Fish On First Opening Day roster projection with the additions of Pete Fairbanks and Esteury Ruiz.

🔹 According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, international free agent infielders Ronny Muñoz and Santiago Solarte are expected to receive the 34th-largest and 45th-largest bonuses of the 2026 signing period, respectively. Both bonuses should land in the $1-2 million range. Badler is particularly bullish on Solarte, a "remarkably coordinated" shortstop with the potential for plus-plus raw power once he fills out his 6'6" frame.

🔹 Also from BA, Walter Villa spoke to Kevin Defrank about his background and pursuit of greatness. The 17-year-old could ultimately reach 6'7", doctors have told him. Defrank will experience his first stateside spring training beginning next month, and he's bringing his mother with him from the Dominican Republic.

🔹 dym explained why Kyle Stowers, Joe Mack, Josh White, Sandy Alcantara and Graham Pauley are particularly critical to the fate of the 2026 Marlins.

🔹 For those who couldn't attend the NHL Winter Classic at loanDepot park, South Florida Sports Historian captured the venue's transformation from all angles.

🔹 Agustín Ramírez returned to his hometown in the Dominican Republic. He and his mother reflected on how far they've come.

🔹 Congratulations to Deyvison De Los Santos and Edili Jiménez, who got engaged last weekend.

 

 

 

 

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🔹Elsewhere around baseball, the Kansas City Royals signed manager Matt Quatraro to a three-year contract extension. The Philadelphia Phillies hired Don Mattingly as their new bench coach. Mattingly held the same position with the Toronto Blue Jays from 2023-2025. In other former Fish news, Joey Wiemer was claimed off waivers by the Washington Nationals and George Soriano was designated for assignment by the Baltimore Orioles.

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[Hans Herrera]

If the Marlins really want to contend over the next three years, Eddy has to stay. He's reaching his peak in that window, and the three-headed monster (Sandy-Eddy-Eury) is just scary. 

As Ely mentions, teams usually get more desperate in late July, so the return should be better than now. Besides, the Marlins have rotation depth, but you cannot say there is a lot of it.

Some quick projections around the projected rotation:

P10 (Best-case scenario): Sandy again in the conversation for the Cy Young award; Eddy, Eury, and Weathers throw at least 150 IP each of 3.50ish ball. Buyers at the deadline. Make it through the Wild Card Series and lose either in the NLDS or the NLCS.

Good-case scenario: Sandy gets closer to his old self; Eddy and Eury keep improving, the back of the rotation holds its own, and the offence improves but stays close to average. Solid bullpen. The Marlins should be in the thick of the WC race most of the year. Chances to make the WCS are above 50%.

P50 (status quo): One of them three underperforms, some injuries on the back side of the rotation, and sophomore regressions. The Marlins remain with an outside shot of making the playoffs (just like in 2025).

Worst-case scenario (P90): Eddy gets hurt and misses the season, Sandy and Eury are a bit better than last season, but still far from their potential. Sandy, Fairbanks, and some other are traded in July. Back of the rotation so-so. Stowers regresses; Gus cannot take another step forward. 70 wins, max.

[Slacker Mills]

Trading any of Alcantara, Cabrera or Eury would be a mistake. That would result in three of Weathers, Braxton, Myer, Snelling, or White having to fill out the rotation. Good luck with that.

[Miller Lepree]

Precisely why I cautioned against trading him in my post last week. I think they should just sign another FA bat and call it a day. Returning same staff as last year, only difference being white and Snelling are closer to ML ready. Risk involved with keeping him is that he gets hurt. Risk in dealing him is that Eury and Sandy are your only proven rotation options. 

[Robert Hanson]

A risk, no matter what the Marlins ultimately do with Edward.

    Hold onto him and voila, yet another injury. His most recent injury, an elbow sprain in September, was/is concerning.

   Trade him and there’s the risk of another Jesus Luzardo situation, which is when the Marlins trade a starter in the offseason & it ends up costing them a spot in the playoffs the following season. The Marlins finished 79-83 last year, 4 games behind the Reds, who grabbed the final playoff spot.

   The last 2 starters the Marlins traded, Luzardo & Trevor Rogers, balled out with their new teams. Prior to that, Pablo put together 2 straight healthy seasons in Minny before his shoulder started acting up again last year. 

  

[2qbn]

Keep Eddy and see what this team can really do. If he is truly coming in to his own, and avoids injury, that 1-2-3 would be nasty in a WC series. Go Fish! 

[Jose Herrera]

I want us to keep Cabby; however, I trust our front office.

[Hippyboi]

I agree that we keep Eddy and build around a strong top 3.

Weathers has earned a long look at the 4 as long as he can stay healthy.

Snelling, Junk or Garret handles the 5 and we have a really strong staff.

I have little faith in Myer, but hopefully he will surprise me.

I do not trust our front office.

Quote

 

 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

The Marlins have three contract years at undeniably affordable costs. It's worth the risk, such as it is, especially given the ludicrous FA contracts given to middling and over-the-hill starters these days. A monster starting rotation is the envy of every team. It means true playoff aspirations. Yet, as Ely stated, I still expect a trade, and will be ok with the decision, I suspect. After all, this whole thing is a giant crapshoot. We hope, we measure, we argue, but have no access to the internal assessments, no vote, and certainly nothing to say about injuries. Happy New Year, fellow Marlins travelers. 

[Guest]

Whoever it is that's saying the Marlins should trade Cabrera is either a complete idiot, a fan of a team that would love to have Cabrera, or one of these morons who always are calling for the Marlins to trade for prospects. These same morons will be the guys saying that the prospects that they get for Cabrera should be traded in a few years, once they have shown their value. I really can't stand the kinds of people who are always telling teams like the Marlins to trade established players for prospects. Two years ago in 2024, when the Trade Deadline passed and the Detroit Tigers did NOT trade Tarik Skubal (as all these clowns were saying they should), the fools at the MLB channel (Robert Flores and that Greg guy) were calling the Tigers the "biggest losers" at the trade deadline. 

The Marlins, if they have any intention of trying to actually COMPETE this year, should keep all their starting pitchers until the July Trading Deadline comes around. If the team is in last place and below .500 they can dump Cabrera and anyone else at that time. If they do trade Cabrera now then we will know one thing FOR SURE: The Marlins have no intention of even TRYING to compete this year, and they are expecting to be LOSERS once again.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

The Marlins have three contract years at undeniably affordable costs. It's worth the risk, such as it is, especially given the ludicrous FA contracts given to middling and over-the-hill starters these days. A monster starting rotation is the envy of every team. It means true playoff aspirations. Yet, as Ely stated, I still expect a trade, and will be ok with the decision, I suspect. After all, this whole thing is a giant crapshoot. We hope, we measure, we argue, but have no access to the internal assessments, no vote, and certainly nothing to say about injuries. Happy New Year, fellow Marlins travelers. 

If they start trading away established MLB starters BEFORE THE SEASON EVEN BEGINS, the Front Office is telling the few fans they have left to FORGET ABOUT 2026, we have no intention to compete and we are going to suck again. And they can do that and get away with it because this is Miami, and nobody really gives a damn, not the press, the Sports Media, the fans, or the writers here at Fish Stripes. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Hippyboi said:

I agree that we keep Eddy and build around a strong top 3.

Weathers has earned a long look at the 4 as long as he can stay healthy.

Snelling, Junk or Garret handles the 5 and we have a really strong staff.

I have little faith in Myer, but hopefully he will surprise me.

I do not trust our front office.

 

"I do not trust our front office." Well said! Basically, if they trade any of the established major league starters that we have, this is what they're saying to their fans: Forget about 2026, we are going to suck again.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Jose Herrera said:

I want us to keep Cabby; however, I trust our front office.

I have zero trust in the Front Office, and if they trade any of the 3 established starters they are telling everybody :Forget about 2026, we do not plan to be competitive and are going to suck again.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Robert Hanson said:

A risk, no matter what the Marlins ultimately do with Edward.

    Hold onto him and voila, yet another injury. His most recent injury, an elbow sprain in September, was/is concerning.

   Trade him and there’s the risk of another Jesus Luzardo situation, which is when the Marlins trade a starter in the offseason & it ends up costing them a spot in the playoffs the following season. The Marlins finished 79-83 last year, 4 games behind the Reds, who grabbed the final playoff spot.

   The last 2 starters the Marlins traded, Luzardo & Trevor Rogers, balled out with their new teams. Prior to that, Pablo put together 2 straight healthy seasons in Minny before his shoulder started acting up again last year. 

  

There is always a risk of injury with ANY pitcher; deciding whether to keep Cabrera should be based on one thing and one thing ONLY: Do the Marlins plan to compete in 2026? If the answer is YES, they have to keep ALL the starters. If they trade Cabrera or any of the top three we will know that the answer is NO.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

Trading any of Alcantara, Cabrera or Eury would be a mistake. That would result in three of Weathers, Braxton, Myer, Snelling, or White having to fill out the rotation. Good luck with that.

Well said!

[1993 fan from start]

following his successful 2025 campaign and the club doesn't fully trust him to replicate that production.. they know better then I would. But on that line Would say this IP see him staying around 112 IP .  Do think his projection is 138. 

[Jose Herrera]

:59 is @Alex Ligero today.

 

[1993 fan from start]

6 hours ago, Alex Ligero said:

I have zero trust in the Front Office, and if they trade any of the 3 established starters they are telling everybody :Forget about 2026, we do not plan to be competitive and are going to suck again.

but you be judging a trade before it happens also.  if it was jeter and kim I be saying same thing also

[Chad Turner]

The best investors sell high and buy low.  Imagine the haul we would have gotten for Sandy after the Cy Young season.  Instead we traded Pablo Lopez, who has produced more than double the WAR of Sandy.  

We have a plethora of SPs.  There's not enough innings to go around.  Snelling has nothing more to prove in AAA and White isn't far behind.  Meyer looked great until he hurt his hip last year.  Weathers also flashed top of the rotation potential.  Brax has better career numbers than Ed.  You can't keep them all.  

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Chad Turner said:

The best investors sell high and buy low.  Imagine the haul we would have gotten for Sandy after the Cy Young season.  Instead we traded Pablo Lopez, who has produced more than double the WAR of Sandy.  

We have a plethora of SPs.  There's not enough innings to go around.  Snelling has nothing more to prove in AAA and White isn't far behind.  Meyer looked great until he hurt his hip last year.  Weathers also flashed top of the rotation potential.  Brax has better career numbers than Ed.  You can't keep them all.  

 That's hilarious. This isn't the stock market. Trading established major league starters (WHO WE SPENT YEARS DEVELOPING!) for some great "haul" of prospects is only a good move if you have no intention of fielding a competitive team. There's a reason why most teams DO NOT trade Cy Young winners immediately after winning the award. The Marlins always trade away the players they spent years developing into stars; I can go ahead and list all the great players even just starting with Miguel Cabrera, but I think there's a character limit here, LOL.

[Guest]

19 hours ago, Jose Herrera said:

:59 is @Alex Ligero today.

 

Wait, Jose, who am I supposed to be? The black bird on the screen at :59? Or Mike Redmond arguing with an umpire? I can't figure it out, LOL.

[Jose Herrera]

@Alex Ligero Redmond. Alex we needed you in the days leading up to the Yelich trade.

[One Regend]

10 hours ago, Jose Herrera said:

@Alex Ligero Redmond. Alex we needed you in the days leading up to the Yelich trade.

Alex was there in the days of the Yelich trade. He knew it was terrible from the moment it happened.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

On 1/6/2026 at 1:39 PM, Alex Ligero said:

If they start trading away established MLB starters BEFORE THE SEASON EVEN BEGINS, the Front Office is telling the few fans they have left to FORGET ABOUT 2026, we have no intention to compete and we are going to suck again. And they can do that and get away with it because this is Miami, and nobody really gives a damn, not the press, the Sports Media, the fans, or the writers here at Fish Stripes. 

The flip side is that the team must be confident in White and Snelling. Perhaps even Garrett, returning from TJ surgery. I preferred to keep Cabrera, but the return looks quite good on paper. Fingers crossed. 

[Guest]

On 1/10/2026 at 4:55 PM, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

The flip side is that the team must be confident in White and Snelling. Perhaps even Garrett, returning from TJ surgery. I preferred to keep Cabrera, but the return looks quite good on paper. Fingers crossed. 

We'll see at the end of this season who did better, Owen Caissie or Troy Johnston. The two are very similar, power hitters in the minor leagues. But there is one difference: Troy actually hit pretty well in the Major Leagues, finishing last year with a .277 BA and 4 HR, 13 RBI in very limited playing time. What I'm trying to tell you is that we already HAD an "Owen Caissie type" of hitter in Troy Johnston. The freaking morons in the Front Office decided not to include him on the 40 man roster and the Rockies grabbed him. Instead of Troy they included Eric Wagabum on the 40 man roster, who they then traded, LOL. So basically here's how the whole thing ended up: We lost Troy to the Rockies, then we lost Cabrera to the Cubs, in exchange for a player that is very similar to Troy.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

21 hours ago, Alex Ligero said:

We'll see at the end of this season who did better, Owen Caissie or Troy Johnston. The two are very similar, power hitters in the minor leagues. But there is one difference: Troy actually hit pretty well in the Major Leagues, finishing last year with a .277 BA and 4 HR, 13 RBI in very limited playing time. What I'm trying to tell you is that we already HAD an "Owen Caissie type" of hitter in Troy Johnston. The freaking morons in the Front Office decided not to include him on the 40 man roster and the Rockies grabbed him. Instead of Troy they included Eric Wagabum on the 40 man roster, who they then traded, LOL. So basically here's how the whole thing ended up: We lost Troy to the Rockies, then we lost Cabrera to the Cubs, in exchange for a player that is very similar to Troy.

I hear you, with the very significant age difference. I liked Johnston, too, and hope he does well in Denver. Regarding the FO, I think they're doing quite well on balance, up against many limitations, but working a plan for which they have all the internal assessments and knowledge that we fans never know. Hang in there. Should be a another fun season. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, THOMAS JOSEPH said:

I hear you, with the very significant age difference. I liked Johnston, too, and hope he does well in Denver. Regarding the FO, I think they're doing quite well on balance, up against many limitations, but working a plan for which they have all the internal assessments and knowledge that we fans never know. Hang in there. Should be a another fun season. 

Hilarious. They are TELLING YOU that the team will be garbage this year by getting rid of starting pitching and you think it will be a "fun season". With fans like you, willing to accept being pissed on by Sherman & Bendix as long as they tell you it's only rain, this team is doomed. MLB should force these scumbags to sell the team.