Miller Lepree

Cool piece! How about a Marsee 5 homer game?

I feel like the offense is always slow to come around for some reason. Would love to see them sniff 4/5 runs per game in april/may.

I felt like Brax was ready to make a leap in 24. Still think about this start: Hope he bounces back strong this year. Think the extra time off bodes well.

Pitchers and catchers report today. So before I relish in the return of baseball and take whatever comes, I figure I'd get my hopes for the season well documented. Here goes: 1. Aggressive Call Ups I’m looking at you, Robby Snelling, Joe Mack, Josh White (and yes, Thomas White, too.) Remember when Jose Fernandez made the leap from High A to the majors? That was fun. Peter Bendix & Co seem to favor a more cautious approach. Spring training will tell whether their practices border on manipulation. I hope the likes of Janson Junk and Chris Paddack don’t get too long a leash in blocking the emergence of what could be a two-headed, left-handed monster for years to come in Snelling and Thomas White. I hope that Augustin Ramirez isn’t forced to allow his offensive value to pass between his shin guards. Clayton McCullough says the word of the year is “urgency”. If that’s true, let’s not block guys who have nothing left to prove. My wild card prediction: Dillon Lewis gets a cup of coffee sometime late in 2026. 2. Three starting pitchers log 130 IP. Last year this number sat at two. Sandy pitched 174 innings, and Edward Cabrera barely cleared 130. Look, I know the days of needing a staff full of workhorses is largely antiquated in the bullpen and 6-man rotation era. Depth is everything when it comes to the fickle world of pitching. But still, if the Marlins aspire to compete with the likes of the Phillies and Cubs, they’re going to need more out of the rotation. The Phillies were seven Tijuan Walker innings away from having five starters reach 130 innings. And all were healthily above average. The cubs had four such pitchers. 3. A Right-Handed Hitter meets the following criteria: 120 games played, OPS+ over 100 Augustin Ramirez was the closest to meeting this seemingly arbitrary benchmark last year. He fell short with 92 OPS+. He’ll be the most likely to do it in 2026, some kind of rebirth from Christopher Morel or Connor Norby notwithstanding. Not having a consistent right-handed threat in the lineup is the kind of weakness that can creep up on a team’s postseason aspirations. 4. Caisie & Stowers “Strawberry Lemonade” combine for 50 bombs. I’m working on the nickname. Maybe one will naturally emerge. Whatever we call them, this feels like a lot to ask, given Stowers' history and Caisie’s complete lack of big-league experience. Both should get the opportunity to play most days this season. It felt like everything went right for Stowers last year, aside from the injuries, and he ended up with 25 bombs. If the two can hit 50, I think that bodes well for the team’s offense. 5. Eury Perez gets the Sandy Treatment. I saw some iPhone footage in a post from Kevin Barral (was it him? I think so) of Eury looking heavier and throwing absolutely effortless gas. It was all I needed to see. Extend this man. Do it before opening day. As drawn out as the will they/won’t they trade Sandy thing has been, I don’t see them re-upping on his next contract. That money would be wiser to spend on someone like Eury, who is much younger and has the chance to be even better. Though I’ll go on record and say that I’m in favor of extending Sandy, too. I’m just not completely delusional. What do you want to see in 2026?

I really hope Augustin switches off or shows a miracle improvement and can serve as a backup. Pumped to watch Snelling too.

For most of this off-season, I’ve operated under the assumption that the 2025 Marlins were full of skunks, pumpkins, liars. Over performers bound for regression. For every Kyle Stowers in Marlins history, there is a Justin Ruggiano. Recently, I wondered if the 2026 fish would mirror the 2016 team. Jakob Marsee, for example, is bound to hit a few bumps during his first full big-league season. He could go blind, after all, or eat too many croquetas and render himself unable to steal bases. I don’t know. Kyle Stowers is a complete wild card in whom I have no trust. Can he maintain his Cliff Floyd impression while striking out 28% of the time and avoiding the injury list? And about the pitching…. If you haven’t already read this on Janson Junk, who is suddenly a shoo-in for the opening day three hole after the trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, I suggest changing that. The rest of the rotation isn’t perfect, either. Will Eury finally put it together and stop getting randomly shelled five times a year? Is Sandy still capable of being Sandy for a full season? Can we expect Braxton Garrett to slide back into his old abilities, after seeing how hard it was for the likes of Sandy and Eury? All to say reasons abound to pour cold milk over this sudden optimism. Then again—the Marlins may not have had a more exciting young core since 2006. With an increasingly loaded farm system, to boot. The emergent group of Marsey, Otto Lopez, X, Stowers, Owen Caisie, Griffin Conine, Augustin Ramirez & soon Joe Mack leads a far deeper and more formidable positional group than the franchise has seen in decades, plural, not just since the 2016 squad. Perhaps I was unkind in my initial assessment of the ’25 squad. I hadn’t considered, for example, that guys like Xavier Edwards could be even better next year. That feels like a mistake. X’s transition from shortstop to second base has been well covered. If you’re reading this, you likely already know that he ended up being a very valuable defender after going back to second, and it seemed to provide his offensive game with a boost, at least initially. And you know that he was under fire from fans for his weak throwing despite an unfair burden playing out of position at short. Going back to second let him focus on hitting. He hit to the tune of a 127 WRC+ in June and July. I think X left some meat on the bone last year, and a full year at second could make him a 5-WAR player. Otto Lopez is an elite defender at short with underlying metrics suggesting he was an unlucky hitter in 2025. Graham Pauley and Connor Norby can spar for the corner infield reps. I suppose Christopher Morel also exists. Every left-handed hitter playing outfield is better than anyone the team has had since Christian Yelich. The depth pieces are there in Sanoja, Heriberto Hernandez, Liam Hicks, Esteury Ruiz. I am now just naming the 40-man roster. But in how many years past could you survey a Marlins depth chart and see the potential in almost everyone to be a positive contributor? There’s talent all over the diamond. All of that, and upper minors depth knocking on the door in the form of Robby Snelling, Thomas White, and Mack. Sure, it’s all projections and hope in the continued development of these young players. There are few sure things. So, they had a few good months in 2025. But this fan base is starving. I’ve always believed that if the team won more than they lost and had maybe two marketable stars, Loan Depot would be packed every weekend. Jose Fernandez used to jam the place by himself when the team had no hope of being competitive. The Yankees series last summer was loud on TV. And wildly entertaining. But since the place opened in 2012 the team has been horrible. They’ve gone 947-1217, to be exact. But pitchers and catchers report this month, and for once, there’s a note of hope drifting south from Jupiter. Last year, they made a big jump. This year, with the only meaningful free agent contract of the off season going to Pete Fairbanks, they’re going to have to do it again. And I’m starting to talk myself into the idea that they just might.

It's like having a venture capital firm run your team. Not much fun. But have to admit Bendix is doing the best he can with the seemingly choke hold budget he's given. Just makes signing Fairbanks seem like they're trying to avoid a grievance than a real indication of whether they believe in the current roster. Almost every other move this off season screams continued rebuild. I think they know they got lucky last year, don't want to bet on Lopez, X, Stowers, etc, and are sticking to the long term plan. Stay tuned? Always next year?

Just wait until Avi Garcia's money comes off the books...then they'll spend!!

Precisely why I cautioned against trading him in my post last week. I think they should just sign another FA bat and call it a day. Returning same staff as last year, only difference being white and Snelling are closer to ML ready. Risk involved with keeping him is that he gets hurt. Risk in dealing him is that Eury and Sandy are your only proven rotation options.

It’s on: the Marlins signed a major league caliber player to a guaranteed contract for 2026. Well, they had technically fulfilled their media-stamped promise of signing someone when they handed Christopher Morel 2 million dollars, but fellow former Ray Pete Fairbanks is the first real indication that Bruce Sherman might be ready to pump some change into this nearly good roster. He’s going to be the second highest paid player on the fish this season. A move like this signals a desire to compete or at least bring the payroll up to a grievance-averting level. A move like this necessitates another. So, who’s next? They could still deal from their starting pitching surplus, which seems less likely with each passing day as their asking price remains high. But I’m going to focus on the remaining free agent hitters, because all they will cost is cash, which will allow the Marlins to retain their starting pitching depth, rather than compromise it and increase the likelihood of having to rush prospects to the big leagues or rely on AAAA arms when one or more of Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, Ryan Weathers, Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett end up on the IL this season. Sure, Jason Junk was admirable in 2025, but do we really want to see that much more of him in 2026? I’ve pegged Yoan Moncada, Paul Goldschmidt, Nathaniel Lowe, Rhys Hoskins as the most likely to be signed based on their predicted 2026 value and fit within the one-year-only deal thing that Bendix and Sherman are keen on. All of them are either old or recently injured and looking to re-establish their value. They aren’t signing Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker, the two loudest bats left on the market. So, which of these bats offer the highest upside in a platoon with Morel at first, or mixed into the DH/Corner infield rotation? Paul Goldschmidt: 2025 (age 37): 146 G, .274/.328/.403, 10 HR, 104 OPS+, 1.2 BWAR Yoan Moncada 2025 (age 30): 84 G, .234/.336/.448 12 HR, 116 OPS+, 0.7 BWAR Nathaniel Lowe 2025 (age 29): 153 G, .228/.307/ .381 18 HR, 94 OPS+, 0.1 BWAR Rhys Hoskins 2025 (age 32): 90 G, .237/.332/.416, 12 HR, 108 OPS+, 0.9 BWAR While none of these players jumped off the page, a closer look reveals that Nathaniel Lowe has the highest upside. He’s still in his physical prime at age 29, coming off a serious down year, but was a productive, 3-win player as recently as 2024 with the Texas Rangers. Once acquired by the Red Sox last August after being cut by the Nationals, he started hitting a lot more fly balls (from 24% up to 37%) and saw a huge uptick in production (88 OPS+ up to 122). 37 games is a very small sample, and although his results with the Nats were so poor, he maintains a career 116 OPS+, which would represent a substantial upgrade over what the Marlins trotted out in 2025 at first base. Whatever the Red Sox unlocked in his swing wasn’t enough to keep them from non-tendering his 10-million-dollar deal for 2026. I’m going to assume he will sign for someone in that neighborhood for one year. Buying low on his stock for one year would present very little risk to the Marlins, and he seems more likely to regain his form than Christopher Morel. Morel’s signing makes this move a bit clunkier: The Marlins signed him to play first, a position he has never played, and gave him a major league deal. In this scenario, he could also serve as the club’s fourth outfielder, become a factor in the DH mix, or split time with Lowe at first. Lowe’s biggest knock would be the lack of positional versatility. He has started 7 games at third base in his career. All 826 of his other starts have been at first base and DH. I don’t think Goldy, Moncada, or Hoskins represent enough upside to force clearing a 40-man spot with the presence of Morel on the roster. Signing one of those guys, who are bargain candidates for a reason, means not getting to see what, if anything, DDLS has to offer the big-league club. Any combination of Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, Liam Hicks, and Augustin Ramirez is more appealing than any of the other candidates I’ve mentioned outside of Lowe. Missing out on the top-tier sluggers every year means that they will have to bank on finding diamonds in the rough. Might as well cast a wide net.

The Marlins might have been a decent team last year. They might have also been mostly bad and extremely lucky. Whatever your interpretation of the 2025 on field results, there are legitimate reasons for optimism heading into next season. But fans are greedy. They want to project years in advance; to sign every breakout rookie to a long-term extension, throw in Pete Alonso and a handful of relievers, and maybe bring back the old uniforms. I’m not going to make any predictions about what Bruce Sherman and Peter Bendix have cooking. Rather let’s look to the past and examine where a Marlins core that never reached its potential went wrong. It’s December 2014—and the Fish are coming off an encouragingly mediocre 77-win campaign. This relative success was owed largely to the emergence of their stellar outfield trio, led by the oft-injured but electric, still-athletic Giancarlo Stanton. Young bloods Marcell Ozuna (power bat, cannon arm) and Christian Yelich (contact skills, outfield grace, impeccable eye) made it the best unit in the league. The three of them lit up the now defunct homerun sculpture a combined 70 times. There was also Casey “hits” McGehee. The team weathered the loss of their supremely gifted, impossibly young ace, the late Jose Fernandez, in May to Tommy John and found a 15-game improvement over their 100-loss campaign in 2013. The infield was a mess. The rotation was thin. But they could hit! And they were, of course, cheap. The team had a 45-million-dollar payroll. And for the most part, nobody cared about them. The 2012 disaster and ensuring fire-sale still lingered on the palates of the fan base. The most hated ownership group in the history of sports needed to make a statement if fans were going to buy into this promising young club. We’re talking about Marlins fans, who knew better than to get attached to young, talented players. So, Jeffrey Loria and David Samson did something that read more like an Onion headline--signed Stanton to the richest contract in North American sports history. They acquired Michael Morse to play first, Dee Gordon to play second, and brought in Mat Latos and Dan Haren to hold down a couple of rotation spots while Jose finished his rehab. As a bonus, they brought in Ichiro as a fourth outfielder, hoping he would hit the 3,000-hit mark in a Marlins uniform. Maybe the team would be good in 2015. But beyond that, fans started to dream that it could be sustainable. They had 300 million reasons to believe. Of course, the rest is history. Stanton played 74 games that year. Jose came back and showed some signs of humanity in his 11 games pitched. Morse was a bust. Ichiro racked up 400 ABS and was worth -1.1 BWAR. Dan Haren and Dee Gordon were good. But it wasn’t enough. The next off-season the team did not do anything to improve the club. Well, they did sign Wei-Yin-Chen. We don’t need to discuss how that went. The club went up in smoke after the horrific death of Jose Fernandez. But the real failings happened well before that. I’d argue that the critical junction was the inaction of the 2015/16 off season—where the front office stood pat and banked on positive regression and in-house development. Stanton’s contract turned out to be heavily back loaded. Loria and Samson laughed their way to the bank knowing they would never have to foot the bill. The farm talent dried up, and the on- field product plateaued at mediocrity. Why am I digging up old bones? Re-traumatizing myself for fun? I think Bruce Sherman and Peter Bendix find themselves at a similar junction to those 2014 Marlins. They find themselves at the incline of the bell curve where the rebuild approaches a competitive window. Where fans will itch for deliverance on the years of promises that the club is doing everything it can to improve. That they will spend money when it makes sense to do so. For what it’s worth, their approach seems much more player development oriented. For all the talk of investment in those resources, it was refreshing to see some minor league players show improvement under their tutelage, rather than flame out like most of them did during the Jeter regime. In a small sample, Bendix & co. have showed competence at identifying players of value and helping them tap into what makes them valuable. But none of that will matter if they continue to spend less on payroll than they bring in from competitive balance revenue. Some of these guys will need to get paid. Some of them will flame out. Fans might be ready to invest in this team, but I’d caution them to wait and see if ownership shares their optimism before doing so much as buying a jersey. I’m sure I’ve still got my Miguel Cabrera number 24 in a closet somewhere. How’d that turn out?

Wow...seems like FoF has its first senile heckler? Chill out @Alex Ligero. If you're going to engage with these honest ppl's work, do us all a favor and be respectful.

68-92 :D

ok my memory is terrible...Was thinking of this homer in 2014:

Even though the numbers are comparable, the fear and imposition of peak Stanton in the box is still unmatched by Shohei. And he's doing it in a 250 million dollar lineup. DHing. Stanton played the outfield every day. Don't get me wrong, Shohei is in a class of his own as a 2-way. But style points still go to Stanton for me. He hit that 118 mph laser over the right field wall that defied physics. His hack was so damn mean. Shohei gives more of that built in a lab, picture perfect quality.