Ely Sussman

Fish On First staffers react to the latest Miami Marlins news and rumors and prepare you for what lies ahead. Tuesday's show was hosted by Ely Sussman and featured panelist Kevin Barral. This podcast is brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. Make sure to use promo code FISHONFIRST to receive 10% off your next booking. You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. In case you missed it, Ely's annual "offseason blueprint" exercise included three major league free agent signings, six trades and two contract extensions. View full article

You know the saying about one man's trash. To be blunt, Chris Paddack was a trash signing for the Miami Marlins last offseason. Penciled into their starting rotation from the get-go, the veteran right-hander lasted barely a month into the 2026 regular season. He posted a 7.63 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 30 ⅔ innings pitched, with the Marlins losing all six of his starts. The notoriously thrifty Fish reluctantly flushed $4 million down the drain. After brief stints with the Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers, Paddack made the unorthodox midseason move overseas. He debuted with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) on July 18. As humbling as it must have been for Paddack to drop down to a lower level of competition, the fit proved to be fantastic. He had a 2.95 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 13 games (12 starts) during the second half of the KBO campaign. His strikeout rate spiked from 15.0% to 26.4% and he allowed home runs half as often. The Lions finished second in the KBO League standings. On Wednesday in Game 2 of the Korean Series, Paddack pitched admirably (7.0 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K). He recorded a no-decision as the Lions won in extra innings. He returned to the mound on short rest during Sunday's Game 5, tossing four perfect innings of relief to clinch the league championship. The Lion roster featured another former Marlins player. Although a lousy hitter in the big leagues from 2020-22, Lewin Díaz is a KBO superstar. This season, he slashed .305/.384/.510 with 26 home runs, two stolen bases and a 134 wRC+. Since his arrival to the league in August 2024, no KBO player has driven in more total runs (306). The Dominican first baseman went 7-for-22 at the plate during the Korean Series. The Lions have a proud history, ranking second among all KBO teams with nine championships since entering the league in 1982. However, this victory snapped a 12-year title drought. View full article

On Friday, Miami Marlins outfield prospect Max Williams had one of his most productive games of the Arizona Fall League season. In his only plate appearance, he reached base safely because a 95 mph fastball plunked him on the left foot. Unable to put his full weight on the foot without discomfort, he was removed for a pinch-runner. Yes, that qualified as a successful day at the office as Williams wraps up a historically poor showing in the desert. With two games remaining for the Glendale Desert Dogs, Fish On First's 22nd-ranked prospect is slashing .157/.214/.157 while striking out 30.3% of the time in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly league. His .371 OPS is second-lowest among all qualified AFL hitters. No extra-base hits. No balls that even reached the warning track. That is despite having the platoon advantage against 82.1% of opposing pitchers. For position players, being selected to participate in the AFL is typically a significant career milestone. It means your MLB organization has made it a priority for you to get additional game reps. On the heels of a brilliant but abbreviated 2026 minor league season, has this AFL stint actually stunted Williams' growth rather than accelerated it? Prior to this year, we have comprehensive public data from 20 other AFL seasons (2005-19 and 2021-25). Only 15 players from that period accrued at least 50 plate appearances while posting a lower OPS than Williams. Of those 15, ten reached the major leagues, but of those ten, just one went on to have any seasons as a qualified MLB hitter (Joc Pederson). Being lenient due to the volatility of small sample sizes, let's also consider the 15 AFL players since 2005 directly ahead of Williams in terms of OPS. Unfortunately, their MLB debut rate was even lower and the most notable career of the bunch belongs to Owen Miller (0.7 fWAR in 304 games across parts of six seasons). Adding more context does not brighten Williams' outlook. At 22 years old, he's approximately the same age as the average AFL hitter. He already had some experience at the Double-A level prior to this. Although the 2025 draft pick was sidelined for most of this year coming off shoulder surgery, he was injury-free from July 9 onward. There was still rust to shake off as a fielder— Marlins affiliates mainly used him as a designated hitter upon his return from the IL—but not at the plate. Entering Friday, Williams had been swinging at 61.1% of total pitches, according to TJ Stats, placing him in the 98th percentile among AFL hitters. That extremely aggressive approach is failing him in part because a lot of those swings are chases outside the strike zone, but more concerningly, he's frequently whiffing inside the zone (sixth percentile in Z-Contact%). For all of the doom and gloom in this article so far, I'll remind you that Williams' primary problem in the fall league has been the absence of power. His amateur and professional track record strongly suggests that is an anomaly. He slugged .582 as a college sophomore in 2024, followed by .598 in 2025. This past summer, he bumped it up further to .620. That distinguishes him from fellow Marlins prospect PJ Morlando, who similarly stunk in the AFL last year and has done little before or since to show he's capable of handling an eventual major league role. Williams is a guess hitter, and when he guesses right, he sends balls out of sight to all fields. With such simple, repeatable swing mechanics, he can rebound by seeing the ball more clearly and making better decisions. This past month has unquestionably been a disappointment, but it doesn't disqualify him from contributing to the Marlins in the coming years. View full article

Thomas White has topped Marlins prospect lists for years, but Baseball America's Jacob Rudner explains why there's now a strong case to be made for Cam Cannarella coming off his terrific 2026 season. View full video

The tradition continues, even under unorthodox conditions. This is how I would navigate the MLB offseason if put in charge of the Miami Marlins front office. There is no new reporting in here, to be clear. I have devised a blueprint based on my understanding of the organization's roster construction philosophy, current strengths and weaknesses, minor league depth and broad goals moving forward. We are coming off a year in which the Marlins ranked dead last among MLB teams in payroll. I loosened the purse strings for this hypothetical, but not too much (I've kept the projected cash spending below $100 million). MLB owners will lock out the players on the evening of December 1 following the expiration of the league's collective bargaining agreement. Nobody knows for sure what will happen next in terms of the pace of negotiations and potential rule changes. For the sake of simplicity and good vibes, I made decisions that assume we'll have a resolution in time to proceed with a full 162-game season. 40-man roster selections Marlins select OF/1B Kemp Alderman, 1B/OF Jonathon Long and RHP Karson Milbrandt to 40-man roster The last time that an MLB offseason was interrupted by a lockout, the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft never took place. I expect it to be cancelled again this year. Even in a realistic best-case scenario, CBA negotiations will drag on deep into February, inevitably condensing spring training and create transactional chaos on the other side of the lockout. I think teams will agree to prioritize other business, in part because it's difficult to determine what you really have in a Rule 5 pick if there are limited opportunities to evaluate them in the preseason. Just to cover my ass, I'll protect Alderman, Long and Milbrandt with 40-man spots. All three spent considerable time at the Triple-A level last season. They are likely to debut in 2027 barring severe injuries. The Marlins' best Rule-5 eligible prospect is actually right-hander Eliazar Dishmey, but he requires a bit more developmental time. If a normal draft was likely to take place, I would protect him out of an abundance of caution. However, in this situation, I'll take the calculated risk, preserving all of his option years for 2028 and beyond. These 40-man moves would coincide with non-tendering Andrew Nardi. Free agency Marlins sign LHP Matthew Boyd (2 YR/$26M) Boyd earned $29 million over the course of his previous two-year deal with the Chicago Cubs and fully met expectations. But the combination of his age—he turns 36 in February—injured list stints during his walk year and below-average velocity should make him slightly cheaper this time around. Since completing his comeback from elbow surgery late in the 2024 season, Boyd has pitched to a 3.41 ERA (20% better than league average) and 3.81 FIP in 61 starts. There was an All-Star selection right in the middle of that stretch and he's been trusted to make starts in each of the last three postseasons. Boyd throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball and occasional sinker. The breaking balls combined to yield a .152 batting average against and only one home run in 109 plate appearances in 2026. Boyd is also brilliant at controlling the running game, tallying an MLB-best 11 pickoffs in 2025 and not allowing a single stolen base in 2026. He and Joe Mack would form a nearly impenetrable battery from that standpoint. There must be some kind of external starting rotation acquisition to fill the void until the likes of Thomas White and Robby Snelling are ready. I think Boyd is good enough to hold onto a starting spot even when they're back, giving the Marlins a deeper rotation than they've had in many years. Marlins sign LHP Sean Newcomb (2 YR/$16M) Our own Kevin Barral linked the Marlins to Newcomb earlier this week. Similar to Boyd, Newcomb has had an inconsistent career, but we now have nearly two full seasons of strong production from him out of the bullpen (2.69 ERA and 3.03 FIP since being removed from the Boston Red Sox rotation). He was used heavily in 2026, and just when it seemed like he was wearing down in early September, the 33-year-old locked back in. The Marlins would be able to go to Newcomb in high-leverage spots against imposing left-handed batters and stick with him for multiple innings at a time. Their pitching staff sorely missed having that sort of arm this past year. Marlins sign OF Myles Straw (1 YR/$3M with $4M club option for 2028) It's questionable whether Jakob Marsee will be ready for Opening Day. Even if he's on the active roster, expect some of his initial reps to come as a designated hitter while he rebuilds his arm strength following elbow surgery. Straw would be most useful to the Marlins early on in 2027. He should provide enough defense, speed and contact ability to continue being a complementary piece throughout the season. Marlins sign C Jake Rogers, 1B Rhys Hoskins, LHP Jeffrey Springs and RHP Albert Abreu to minor league deals Rogers, Hoskins and Springs are all buy-low veterans coming off ineffective seasons. Abreu was a sub-replacement level MLB reliever from 2020-23 who has since gone to Japan and is currently working as a starter in the Dominican Winter League. The right-hander's slider is looking pretty nasty and his fastball tops out at 97 mph, so worth a flier. Trades Marlins trade RHP Max Meyer to the St. Louis Cardinals for C/DH Iván Herrera and C Juan Rujano The Marlins faced this conundrum last offseason with Edward Cabrera, another former MLB Top 100 prospect who finally put together a great campaign after years of frustrating them. They haven't regretted selling high on Cabrera, and I won't lose any sleep over following suit with Meyer if it brings back a player with just as much club control and a more consistent track record. Fans outside of Miami and St. Louis may not realize that Meyer and Herrera were both All-Stars in 2026. It's hard to envision either returning to that stage given the former's durability issues and the latter's defensive limitations. Still, sexy trade given that context. Herrera owns a lifetime .265/.362/.410 slash line, including .276/.401/.462 against lefties. He would platoon with Joe Mack behind the plate and serve as the Marlins DH most of the time when Mack is catching. Meyer and Herrera are both in the midst of their arbitration years and on track to hit free agency after the 2029 season. The gap in their projected 2027 salaries is large enough that I believe the Cards would have to include Rujano as well—he'll enter his age-19 season with 57 games of solid rookie ball experience under his belt. The aforementioned Boyd signing is critical to offsetting the loss of Meyer. Marlins trade 2B Xavier Edwards to the Texas Rangers for RHP Jack Leiter, C Malcolm Moore and LHP Breyner Figuereo Edwards has been a nice floor-raiser for the Fish. While there's no urgency to part with him, this would be an efficient way to simultaneously address long-term rotation depth and catching depth. An ankle injury spoiled most of Leiter's 2026 season, but he's fully recovered now. He'll get every opportunity to win an Opening Day rotation spot and live up to his No. 2 overall draft pick pedigree. Although the bar is so low following Mack's graduation, Moore would immediately become the top catching prospect in the Marlins org. Splitting time between High-A and Double-A, he slashed .260/.352/.480 with 18 homers and a 113 wRC+ in 97 games. An outfielder-turned-pitcher, Figuereo struck out a whopping 40% of the batters he faced in the Dominican Summer League. Marlins trade LHP Nate Payne, OF Dillon Head and DH/C Agustín Ramírez to the San Francisco Giants for UTIL Casey Schmitt and LHP Jack Choate When composing the 2025-26 blueprint, I remember trying very hard to come up with a logical Casey Schmitt trade. He'll be pricier to acquire now, but I don't mind paying the premium for another impactful right-handed bat. It was a career year for Schmitt at age 27 (.271/.301/.483, 21 HR, 9 SB, 114 wRC+ and a 1.9 fWAR). That came while playing every infield position as well as left field. I like his defense best at third base. He missed the final two-plus months of the season due to a torn meniscus. Choate is a deceptive, 6'8" reliever who's ready to be tested at the Triple-A level. Payne is the main asset going back to the Giants as they gradually turn over their roster after losing 97 games. He ranked second among all Marlins minor leaguers in strikeouts and has plenty of starter traits. Head has shown elite speed...and not much else. Most concerningly, he slugged only .200 versus lefties at High-A. Displaced by Iván Herrera and out of options, Ramírez does not fit in Miami's plans anymore. His offensive potential remains tantalizing, but I've given up hope for him becoming serviceable with the glove. Marlins trade RHP Ryan Gusto to the Colorado Rockies for UTIL Willi Castro This is also a case of moving on from a player who couldn't really spread their wings with the Marlins. Gusto was a starter in 2026 only by the loosest possible definition, rarely completing five innings in an outing. What he lacks in pitch quality, he attempts to compensate for with pitch quantity. The rebuilding Rockies can take off his training wheels without worrying too much about the results. Castro has been almost precisely a league-average hitter dating back to 2023. A pending free agent, his $6.4 million salary is more than fair if he continues executing well with runners in scoring position and bouncing around the diamond based on the team's needs. With the Marlins, Castro would be pinch-hitting more often than he's used to. Marlins trade INF Carter Johnson to the New York Yankees for RHP Luis Gil This would have been a much bigger deal two years ago, when Johnson had just received a $2.8 million signing bonus out of the MLB Draft and Gil was the reigning American League Rookie of the Year. Now, it's hard to imagine Johnson becoming an MLB regular given his shaky hit tool and slide down the defensive spectrum. Gil still boasts a career 3.61 ERA, but he has a lot of difficulty throwing strikes. The mighty Yankees pitching staff wouldn't miss him. With the Marlins, Gil could at least audition for the fifth starter job. Realistically, he profiles as a low-leverage reliever. He's got the upside to eventually become more than that as he settles into the bullpen routine. Marlins trade OF Esteury Ruiz to the Cleveland Guardians for LHP Caden Favors Ruiz was a net positive for most of 2026, but he doesn't belong in center field and I'm discouraged by his high whiff rate. That's why I have replaced him with Myles Straw. Ultimately, the Marlins come away with a better pitching prospect than the one they originally traded away to acquire Ruiz (Adriano Marrero). The 25-year-old Favors has enjoyed an injury-free professional career to this point. He posted a 2.96 ERA in his last 10 Double-A appearances. Contract extensions Marlins extend RHP Sandy Alcantara (4 YR/$90M with $20M vesting option for 2032) $22.5M annually from 2028-2031 Option vests with at least 300 innings pitched from 2030-31 The Marlins have been allergic to continuity. Not on my watch. As the franchise's only Cy Young Award winner approaches the end of his contract, let's leave no doubt that he'll be staying put. There aren't many direct comps to use for Alcantara when arriving at fair terms for an extension. He was an above-average, incredibly durable starter (and emergency closer) in 2026, but did so with an extremely low strikeout rate. Even if we completely ignore his 2025 first-half catastrophe, he's far removed from being a true ace. My starting point was Madison Bumgarner's five-year, $85 million free agent deal from the 2019-20 offseason. Marlins extend OF Jakob Marsee (7 YR/$48M with $15M club option for 2034) $1M in 2027, $2.5M in 2028, $4M in 2029, $5.5M in 2030, $8M in 2031, $12M in 2032 and $12M in 2033 Club option comes with $3M buyout There are question marks with Marsee too, as his first and only full MLB season was the epitome of inconsistent. Although capable of sticking in center field, it might not take long for Miami's top hitting prospect, Cam Cannarella, to bump him off that premium position. I still see awesome value for the team here, paired with an appropriate payout to Marsee considering the risk he'd be taking by going year to year with his contract status. He would collect a total of $60 million if the option is exercised—not too many former sixth-round draft picks sniff that kind of fortune. Marsee's plate discipline and instincts make him so reliable over any extended period of time. His career upside resembles that of Brandon Nimmo, who's at 29.5 fWAR and counting. However, Ceddanne Rafaela's extension (8 YR/$50M) was the main comp I had in mind during the process. How the pieces fit together Here is a before-and-after look at the Marlins 40-man roster once the dust has settled on my offseason moves. Players no longer with the organization have been crossed off Outside additions to the 40-man roster are highlighted, underlined and italicized Up arrows denote players who were already with the organization, but now hold 40-man spots Overall, this isn't a dramatically different roster from 2026, but it didn't need to be in order to take a meaningful step forward. The Marlins should be improved defensively and match up better against both opposing left-handed pitchers and left-handed batters. The most likely Opening Day starting rotation would include Alcantara, Pérez, Boyd, Leiter and Junk. The trio of Sanoja, Schmitt and Castro would combine to handle second base and third base, with Sanoja receiving the largest share of playing time. Several of the 40-man roster guys are on short leashes entering 2027. If they slump early, the likes of Thomas White, Cam Cannarella and Brandon Compton will be breathing down their necks. View full article

Here is what made Cam Cannarella the easy pick for Marlins Minor League Player of the Year. View full video