Sean McCormack

Lake Bachar has been successful out of the Marlins bullpen for parts of three seasons since being claimed off waivers from San Diego. Bachar has been one of the steadiest arms out the ‘pen in 2026. Through 39 ⅓ innings, he has a 2.97 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 20.5 K-BB%. With regular rotation members Eury Pérez and Janson Junk sidelined by injuries, the Marlins have tried to patch things together without a full group of conventional starters. Bachar, for example, has served as an opener three times this month, completing as many as three innings in those situations. The right-hander hasn't pitched consistently in a starting role since early in the 2022 season when he was still at the Double-A level. Would the Marlins dare experiment with stretching him out to fill one of their rotation voids? Bachar has seen his pitch mix expand every season with the Fish. Coming into 2025, he only threw a four-seam fastball, split-finger, and sweeper. Adding a slider in 2025, and now both a curveball and sinker this year has expanded his mix from three pitches to six. Baseball Savant’s movement profile illustrates how Bachar can throw many different shapes and attack batters in a plethora of ways. This is how many of today's top MLB starting pitchers approach the game as well. Bachar ideally fits into how the Marlins approach pitching: off-speed and breaking ball heavy. All of Bachar's non-fastballs have an xAVG under .208 with a xWOBA under .260 and 37.5 whiff% or more. He usage each of those pitches 10% or more, evenly distributing his mix to keep hitters off balance. a0RsWUtfVjBZQUhRPT1fQUZBQ1VsTUFWbEVBQVZGVUFnQUhVZ1VIQUFBQkFBQUFDbDBOQ1FvRVVGZFNBZ0pX.mp4 The addition of the sinker may be pivotal for Bachar's development as a pitcher. Bachar's four-seam struggles against vs. lefty batters as reflected in its hard-hit rate allowed and called strike plus swinging strike rate. The addition of the sinker will be strong vs. RHB, like his four-seam. Experimenting with a cutter, like many other pitchers have, may be a ideal addition for Bachar to have a variation of fastball to attack lefties with. Adding a cutter would continue a league-wide trend of three fastball shapes for pitchers—49% of the league has three fastballs they utilize, compared to 32% ten years ago. Due to Bachar's lack of extension and league-average velocity on the four-seam, it will be more likely to regress in an expanded role. The longer Bachar's outings are, the more plausible that his velo will drop, which is common when players move from the ‘pen to the rotation. TzA0TDRfWGw0TUFRPT1fQjFJSEFnSlJCd2NBRFZFQUFnQUhDRlJVQUZrQlVBQUFCQUVCVmxJREExSlZVbEZU.mp4 Lastly, like with any starter, Bachar's command would be tested. So far, Bachar has a 8.3% BB%. The FanGraphs Location+ metric, gives Bachar overall a 99 Location+ score (100 being average), although this score is severely hindered by his split-finger which registers a 52 Location+. (Heat map via Fangraphs) Overall, Bachar's expanded pitch mix, lack of physical exertion when pitching, and ability to utilize all his pitches in different quadrants of the zone, could allow him to move to the rotation for the Marlins if needed as the 2026 season continues. View full article

The first edition of the 2026 MLB mock draft has arrived. As the college baseball regular season nears its conclusion, my board of top draft-eligible prospects has fallen in place. The Marlins select 14th in the first round. Pick # Team Player Position School Slot Value 1 Chicago White Sox Roch Cholowsky SS UCLA $11,350,600 2 Tampa Bay Rays Grady Emerson SS High School $10,507,000 3 Minnesota Twins Vahn Lackey C Georgia Tech $9,740,100 4 San Francisco Giants Jackson Flora RHP UC Santa Barbara $8,988,400 5 Pittsburgh Pirates AJ Gracia OF Virginia $8,336,500 6 Kansas City Royals Jared Grindlinger LHP/OF High School $7,746,100 7 Baltimore Orioles Drew Burress OF Georgia Tech $7,327,200 8 Athletics Logan Reddemann RHP UCLA $6,982,600 9 Atlanta Braves Cameron Flukey RHP Coastal Carolina $6,675,300 10 Colorado Rockies Jacob Lombard SS High School $6,393,100 11 Washington Nationals Ryder Helfrick C Arkansas $6,133,500 12 Los Angeles Angels Derek Curiel OF LSU $5,889,300 13 St. Louis Cardinals Chris Hacopian INF Texas A&M $5,661,300 14 Miami Marlins Ace Reese 3B/1B Mississippi State $5,444,900 15 Arizona Diamondbacks Eric Booth Jr. OF High School $5,241,000 16 Texas Rangers Sawyer Strosnider OF TCU $5,051,900 17 Houston Astros Aiden Robbins OF Texas $4,868,600 18 Cincinnati Reds Gio Rojas LHP/OF High School $4,696,500 19 Cleveland Guardians Tyler Bell SS Kentucky $4,530,500 20 Boston Red Sx Logan Hughes OF Texas Tech $4,373,900 21 San Diego Padres Tyler Spangler SS High School $4,224,700 22 Detroit Tigers Logan Schmidt LHP High School $4,082,700 23 Chicago Cubs James Clark SS High School $3,947,600 24 Seattle Mariners Cole Carlon LHP Arizona State $3,818,700 25 Milwaukee Brewers Daniel Jackson C Georgia $3,696,000 26 Atlanta Braves* Justin Lebron SS Alabama $3,578,800 27 New York Mets Cole Prosek C/SS High School $3,466,500 28 Houston Astros* Aiden Ruiz SS High School $3,363,600 29 Cleveland Guardians^ Mason Edwards LHP USC $3,270,200 30 Kansas City Royals^ Coleman Borthwick RHP High School $3,190,500 31 Arizona Diamondbacks^ Tegan Kuhns RHP Tennessee $3,118,300 32 St. Louis Cardinals^ Cade Townsend RHP Ole Miss $3,044,600 33 Tampa Bay Rays^ Jarren Advincula 2B Georgia Tech $2,980,200 34 Pittsburgh Pirates^ Liam Peterson RHP Florida $2,897,400 35 New York Yankees Bo Lowrance 3B High School $2,826,700 36 Philadelphia Phillies Connor Comeau SS/C High School $2,758,800 37 Colorado Rockies^ Brody Bumila LHP High School $2,696,700 * = Prospect Promotion Incentive ^ = Competitive Balance Round A Marlins first-round pick: Ace Reese, 3B/1B, Mississippi State Ace Reese is one of the best power-hitting prospects in the 2026 MLB Draft class. He’s also one of the most consistent hitters in this class and continues to show growth after every season. The Mississippi State product has had an extremely successful college career to date. Through 49 games as a junior, Reese has a .317/.420/.688 slash line, with a .463 wOBA, and 17 home runs. Power is the name of the game for Reese, flashing elite exit velocities for a college bat, and staggering barrel rates. Reese's approach is slightly aggressive, although he makes strong contact and whiff numbers for a power bat. Reese slips down draft boards a bit due to lack of a positional home. He has spent most of his time at third base and the corner outfield spots during college, but may be best at first base as he grows older. On many fronts, he resembles 2025 Brewers first-round pick Andrew Fischer, who made waves for himself in the World Baseball Classic (Italy) and has built upon that in High-A. Reese will not add much on the base paths, but would add much needed pop to the Marlins farm system if selected. He'd cost slightly less than half of Miami's total draft bonus pool of $11,960,100. View full article

Starlyn Caba, Fish on First's eighth-ranked prospect, was acquired by the Miami Marlins in the December 2024 trade which sent Jesús Luzardo to the Philadelphia Phillies. One season later, the Phillies looked like they got the better end of the deal, as Luzardo was a crucial piece of their division-winning starting rotation and the left-hander was signed to a five-year contract extension. Meanwhile, Caba struggled with injuries and the stick during his age-19 season. The shortstop played his whole 2025 with the Jupiter Hammerheads. He had a .613 OPS and .284 wOBA, unable to hit the ball with much authority. Fortunately for the Fish, Caba fared much better in the Arizona Fall League. Among the youngest prospects who participated in the AFL, he recorded a 105 mph max exit velocity, .363 wOBA and 42.6% hard-hit rate overall, and continued his strong swing decisions and 70-grade defense at short. He reached base safely in all 18 games he played and earned a Fall Stars Game selection. Three weeks into his 2026 season, Caba has made even more progress in the batter's box. Through 13 games with High-A Beloit, he has a .327/.424/.531 slash line with a .436 wOBA and 153 wRC+. The lack of public batted-ball data from the Midwest League prevents us from speaking on his EVs, but he appears to be mostly deserving of these results. The glove on its own may have given Caba a future MLB role, but this positive development to his hitting profile from a damage perspective mixed with his great plate approach makes him a viable potential building block for the Marlins. While we're at least a full year away from seeing the Dominican switch-hitter in the majors, he has undeniable similarities to some longtime big leaguers. Using them as reference points, I'll lay out three plausible career outcomes for Caba. Low-end outcome: Alcides Escobar MLB seasons: 14 Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 3.5/13.3 Alcides Escobar was an All-Star, Gold Glove award winner, and World Series champion, though all of those accolades came during the same 2015 season. He had an extremely up-and-down career overall. At his peak, Escobar was the spark at the top of the Kansas City Royals lineup. The majority of the time, he was best suited for the bottom of the order, earning his keep with defense and speed. cv_516191283_1200K.mp4 Escobar had a single-season high of only seven home runs and didn't get on base consistently. It wouldn't be unfair to expect Caba to fare better in one or both of those areas in the future. That being said, this kind of stability at shortstop has considerable value. Likely outcome: Jose Iglesias MLB seasons: 13 Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 2.5/16.8 Caba's remarkably smooth actions up the middle are reminiscent of Jose Iglesias. The former top prospect with the Boston Red Sox saw major league time with eight different franchises, making flashy plays every place he went. Iglesias hit for an elite average in several seasons, too. However, like Escobar, his production was limited in terms of homers and walks. Caba's patient approach could elevate him above this tier of player. High-end outcome: Andrés Giménez MLB seasons: seven Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 6.1/16.2 Andrés Giménez is not only still active, but should be for at least another half-decade. The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop is in the midst of his age-27 season. Even with many years of baseball ahead of him, it's safe to say that 2022 will go down as his career year, when he finished sixth in American League MVP voting. Most often utilized at second base in the past, Giménez has been one of the best infield defenders in baseball. He already has three Gold Gloves as well as the 2023 AL Platinum Glove. SzQ3QUJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnQldBUWNDWGxZQUMxVlJYZ0FBQ0FGU0FBQlhXd2NBVkZJRkJBSlFBRkZkVmxaVA==.mp4 If Caba grows into a Giménez-like combination of speed, elite defense and nearly league-average hitting, I believe this would be a fantastic outcome. In an absolute best-case scenario, Caba could maintain even higher OBPs than him. View full article

Coming off of what was a great two-month debut with the Miami Marlins in 2025, Jakob Marsee entered 2026 with lofty expectations. While his defense and baserunning have remained strong, the bat has been lacking to start the new season. Entering Saturday, Marsee's slash line is .148/.254/.204 with a .224 wOBA and 37 wRC+. It's a stark difference from his 133 wRC+ in 55 major league games last year. On the surface, these numbers are poor, and his expected stats only partially paint a better picture. However, a change to Marsee's stance in the batter's box has seemingly contributed to massive increases in important metrics, which will eventually lead to positive outcomes. First off, Marsee has gotten unlucky. His batting average on balls in play has plummeted from .357 as a rookie to .205 as a sophomore. Regression was expected, but this is an overcorrection that has him way underperforming league averages and his own minor league career norms. 7k4rab.mp4 Marsee's hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are much higher than the prior season. Those alone would point to future success, but I can dig even deeper to prove my case. Marsee's approach is potentially his best tool, and that has for the most part been the same as last year. In fact, his in-zone-contact rate has increased to 95%, up 8% from last season and 7% better than the MLB average. He's putting balls in the air more frequently, with his pulled-air rate rising up to 31%, which is nearly doubled the rest of the league. He is chasing outside the zone a tad more, but still ranks in the 83rd percentile in that department, according to Baseball Savant. The home runs are coming for Marsee if he stays consistent with what he's already doing in these areas. Marsee's new tendency to pull balls is no small-sample coincidence. Consider that last year, he stood 30.4 inches deep in the box, whereas this year, his depth is only 27.2 inches. That positioning has caused his "intercept point" to move 7.9 inches in front of home plate, compared to -0.3 inches previously (slightly behind the front of the plate). For context, league average is 2.9 inches in front. Monitoring Marsee's stance changes will be important to see how he adjusts (or doesn't adjust) to his early struggles. From my view, he shouldn't change a thing. These are all indicators of a strong hitting profile and the hits will soon follow. View full article

The biggest positive development for the Marlins during the early portion of the 2026 season has been Sandy Alcantara looking like the best pitcher on the planet. A berth in the MLB postseason is a lot more viable if Alcantara continues to put the team on his back every fifth day. However, the future of Miami's starting rotation is in flux. The club only has its former Cy Young Award winner under contract through 2027, and extending him again probably won't be in the Marlins' budget if this dominance sustains. Fortunately, the Marlins have a young stud with comparable upside in right-hander Eury Pérez. Still a week shy of his 23rd birthday, the former top prospect hasn't yet performed like an ace—in fact, since returning from Tommy John surgery last June, his production is approximately league average (97 ERA+). On the other hand, that may make him receptive to a long-term deal at a reasonable price. Pérez is on track to become arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter and enter free agency after the 2029 season. For the Marlins to extend their next contention window beyond that, signing Pérez to a deal that covers more of his prime years is imperative. It is rare for teams to make long-term commitments to players in this demographic. A couple pre-arb pitchers who have received extensions recently are Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) and Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves). Greene signed his deal on April 18, 2023. The Reds guaranteed $53M for his entire 20s, buying out his arbitration years and potentially two years of free agency if the 2029 club option is exercised. Strider owns the record for largest payday for a pre-arb pitcher. Coming off an electrifying rookie season in 2022, his six-year deal was worth $75M. The structure of Strider's extension was more backloaded than Greene's. In Pérez's case, I would attempt to buy out an additional free agent year. As seen below, this deal would run through 2032, with that row highlighted in light blue representing a club option. He would edge out Strider by receiving $76.5M guaranteed, with a maximum value of $102.5M if the Marlins pick up his option. This would be the longest pitching contract in franchise history and the first player extension of any kind since Peter Bendix took over as president of baseball operations. Season Age Base Salary 2026—Pre-Arb 23 $2.0M 2027—Arb1 24 $5.0M 2028—Arb2 25 $10.5M 2029—Arb3 26 $15.0M 2030—FA 27 $22.0M 2031—FA 28 $22.0M 2032—FA 29 $26.0M Total $102.5M Eury Pérez considers Sandy Alcantara to be a friend and a mentor. Ideally, they'll co-lead the Marlins rotation for years to come. If the resources aren't there to keep both, extending Pérez should be the priority. View full article

Right-hander Bradley Blalock in 2025 had a 9.36 ERA, 7.31 FIP, and -1.0 fWAR through 58 ⅔ innings. Horrible numbers. Although digging way in, some intriguing traits may explain why the Miami Marlins claimed him from the Colorado Rockies in January. Putting the results aside, Blalock has a high arm slot, good metrics on his fastball, a strong splitter, and a deep pitch mix. Blalock's 62-degree arm angle was the second-highest among qualified righties last season. It plays well with his fastball and above-average extension, something that the Marlins have targeted with other arms as of late. With 16 inches of induced vertical break, minimal horizontal break (2") and average velocity, Blalock's fastball should perform better than it has (.431 xWOBA). His past struggles mainly had to do with it being thrown so much middle-middle. He will have to locate it outside the strike zone more often. Highlighting Blalock's best pitch, his splitter, this may have enticed the Marlins to claim him as they have targeted many other split-throwers during the Peter Bendix era so far. Blalock mainly threw his to lefties. It limited damage compared to his other pitches (.318 xwoBACON) and induced more frequent whiffs as well (24.7%). I foresee the Marlins increasing his splitter usage, including throwing it against right-handed hitters. d2U1S1FfWGw0TUFRPT1fRHdaWlZsMVhVQU1BRHdFQUJBQUhVbE5mQUZrQkJsTUFWd0JSQkFwVUFWZFVCZ0pm.mp4 Blalock throws a slider, although it's mainly utilized vs. righties. The pitch did not perform well. While training at Driveline Baseball this offseason, the 25-year-old says he added a sweeper and sinker. That combination could help him generate more ground balls. A cutter and curveball are also used by Blalock. The curveball, like his slider, was destroyed by hitters (.565 xwoBACON). It has a lot of break to it, but does not get hitters out. However, his cutter may have potential. It generated ground balls at a 50% clip, with a 21.2 whiff% and zero barrels allowed. Blalock threw the pitch to hitters of either handedness. Upping its usage could be the next step. With this much-needed change of scenery, Blalock may be on the upswing. As bad as his first two seasons in the major league looked, there is an opportunity with the Marlins if they hit on the right combination of pitch mix tweaks, sequencing changes, and potential biomechanical adjustments. He has one more minor league option left in case it takes some time to recalibrate to his new arsenal. Blalock could eventually offer bulk innings out of the 'pen for the Fish. View full article

Otto López is already one of the better Miami Marlins waiver claims of the past decade, and certainly of the Peter Bendix era. In less than two full seasons since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, he has posted 4.8 fWAR—that's tied with Xavier Edwards for the most total value of any Marlins player. Looking into Lopez further, I believe there is the potential for a breakout in 2026. The data shows his underlying skills are improving. From 2024 to 2025, Lopez increased his bat speed, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate while decreasing his chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. The combination of hitting balls harder without compromising his approach is very encouraging. Stat 2025 +/- 2024 BA .246 -.024 .270 xBA .269 -.003 .272 SLG .368 -.009 .377 xSLG .434 +.032 .402 wOBA .295 -.007 .302 xwOBA .330 +.013 .317 Hard Hit % 38.3 -0.6 38.9 Avg Exit Velocity 88.5 +0.5 88.0 Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 32.5 +2.1 30.4 Barrel % 7.1 +2.0 5.1 Avg Launch Angle 8.4 +3.0 5.4 In Zone % 50.5 0.0 50.5 Out of Zone % 49.5 0.0 49.5 Out of Zone Swing % 29.5 -2.5 32.0 Whiff % 18.9 -3.0 21.0 First Strike % 62.0 -3.0 65.0 First Pitch Swing % 24.0 -5.0 29.0 Swing % 46.3 -5.1 51.4 K% 13.8 -3.5 17.3 BB% 7.4 +1.6 5.8 So why didn't this improvement translate to more production in 2025? Lopez's OPS actually dropped from the year before. That largely comes down to poor luck on balls in play, specifically at loanDepot park. In 2025 at home, Lopez posted a .627 OPS and 73 wRC+, compared to a .714 OPS and 98 wRC+ on the road, with a 31-point gap in BABIP. This was the opposite of 2024, when he performed better at home than on the road. Strange as well is that Lopez increased his pulled fly ball rate and FB% in general. All this points to him having sharply underperformed for reasons beyond his control. As an example, this hard contact of 108.2 mph off the bat of Lopez with a launch angle of 14 degrees had a 74% chance of being a hit. It's expected slugging percentage was north of 1.000 because of the high likelihood it would've been a double or triple had it found grass. A good read by Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela turned it into an out. TzBsMDBfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxOVVV3RlhVZ0VBQ1ZvTEJRQUhVQWRTQUZoV0IxRUFVVjFVQmdWV1YxWmRVUVJR.mp4 Lopez underperformed his xSLG last season against every category of pitch (min. 100 pitches). The 27-year-old could benefit from lifting the ball more, as he still has a ground ball rate above league average. He also has a vulnerability to changeups, producing a .132 AVG .176 SLG, and .158 wOBA against the pitch. Lefties will continue attacking him with them until those results flip. SzRsV2pfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdOUVVnZFdYMUFBV1FkWEF3QUhVZ0ZVQUZoV1ZnSUFVVjFVQ1ZWVVVBdFZBUXBm.mp4 Considering how well Lopez fairs vs. fastballs, I would wager the poor results vs. changeups are a byproduct of selling out for fastballs, rather than him not being able to read offspeed stuff. Besides the likely improvements on the hitting side, Lopez showed the Marlins organization he could stick at shortstop. After swapping positions with Xavier Edwards, he put up plus-four outs above average and plus-seven defensive runs saved. Speaking with Fish On First at Marlins Media Day last Friday, Lopez said that his first step and the accuracy of his throws were areas he focused on improving during his offseason training. Nnk5TW9fWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdoVFVGWlNYd1FBRGxWUVZ3QUhVZ0JlQUZsVFZ3UUFBVlZSVmdZTkJWZFVCUVlF.mp4 If Otto Lopez has luck on his side as I predict for 2026, with a full healthy season and great defense, he will find himself as a top-10 MLB shortstop. The last time a Marlins shortstop finished that highly in fWAR? Adeiny Hechavarría in 2015. View full article

The Miami Marlins have a clearer idea of what their starting rotation will look like after striking a one-year ,$4M deal with Chris Paddack on Monday. Drafted by the Fish in 2015, Paddack has seven seasons of MLB experience, but it's been a bumpy road for him. After a relatively successful yet injury-riddled first three seasons with the Padres, he never regained his footing. Last season between the Tigers and Twins, Paddack had a 5.35 ERA and 5.03 FIP through 158 innings. Not ideal outcomes. The Marlins are making this move with the expectation of extracting more value out of his Paddack than his most recent teams did. How could they do that? Let's begin with what Paddack does well. He limits walks and, if healthy, can eat innings for the Marlins. Paddack was tied for 10th in all of baseball with a 5.5% walk rate (min. 150 IP). Paddack's four-seam fastball is metrically appealing as well, combining Paddack's seven feet of extension with efficient spin, high induced vertical break, and good command at the top of the zone. The issue is, Paddack has no reliable secondary offering and that leaves him too reliant on his fastball. Even with good fastball data, the pitch's velocity is ordinary at 93.7 mph, leaving it vulnerable to damage, especially when hitters anticipate it coming. bGJlQlJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdJRkJnWUNYZ0VBQUFCWFV3QUhVRkJmQUFNRlZnUUFWbFlFQkFZRVVBWUhWRkJm.mp4 The Marlins ought to work on the rest of Paddack's arsenal to keep opponents off balance. Paddack's changeup was his second-most-used pitch last season. The pitch has graded out well per FanGraphs' stuff model in years past, although it was a below-average pitch in 2025. The changeup is commanded very well and generated a lot of chase compared to the MLB league average with a 42.6% O-Swing. With that being said, it was hit hard when catching too much of the zone. Adding more depth on the pitch or tweaking its location could make a big difference. MTZxbjNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdaU1Vsd0hYMUFBWGdGV0F3QUhCUThBQUFNRVcxRUFVRlVGQndzQ0NGWUdBZ1FD.mp4 Paddack also has a large, droopy curveball that he uses to steal called strikes. Overall, though, it is not very useful. The usage of his slider went down from 2024 to 2025. I believe the Marlins should reverse that trend and look to expand on this pitch, modifying it into a sweeper, as they've done with other arms. It could be effective against righties and fit into the east-west approach that he has tried adopting recently. Because Paddack naturally spins the ball well, he most likely will never develop an above-average sinker, but that does not mean he cannot use the pitch effectively. His sinker limited damage in 2025, which is a plus, but induced a ton of contact (90%) and was hit for line drives often. I predict that the Marlins will encourage him to continue using it vs. righties so that they aren't always sitting on his four-seam. ZFh6QllfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdkU0IxSldYd1VBQVFjRFZRQUhBZzlXQUZsVFZ3QUFBUVFCVmdVTlZGWlRVd1Jl.mp4 Lastly, the cutter was poor and not commanded well in 2025. Paddack simply may not have a "feel" for that pitch. Just eating a similar amount of innings as he did last year would make Paddack useful to the Marlins. But in order to feel genuinely satisfied with their investment and get 1 WAR of production out of him, they'll have to tweak his pitch usage and sequencing. View full article