Sean McCormack

The Miami Marlins selected Jacob Lombard at 14th overall in last weekend's MLB Draft. Lombard "falling" to pick 14 was considered a shock around baseball. When he was still available to them, the Marlins pounced and selected the Miami native with a family history of baseball, Lombard's father is the bench coach of the Detroit Tigers and his brother, George, is a top prospect in the Yankees system who was also drafted in the first round out of high school. Jacob Lombard is a large 6'3" shortstop with big power projection, yet he's extremely fluid at the position. There are mixed opinions of his hit tool. Baseball America gives him a 45 on the 20-80 grade scale, citing his low contact rates compared to his peers on the summer circuit and tendency to chase. Meanwhile, MLB.com gives Lombard a 55 because his angles when he makes contact are strong, with a high fly ball rate, with hard-contact, and high bat speed. Low-end outcome: Trevor Plouffe MLB seasons: nine Peak bWAR: 4.2 Career bWAR: 7.4 The reason for Trevor Plouffe being the "low outcome" for Lombard is based on if Lombard cannot stick at shortstop, Plouffe like Lombard was drafted as a shortstop out of high school and in Triple-A moved to the hot corner. Plouffe had a solid career mostly being remembered for his power, playing nine years in the major leagues with 106 career home runs. cv_24749955_1200K.mp4 Middle outcome: Ian Desmond MLB seasons: 11 Peak bWAR: 4.4 Career bWAR: 15.8 Desmond was a tantalizing offensive talent who had 181 home runs and 181 stolen bases over his 11-year MLB career. He won three NL Silver Slugger awards at shortstop, but his OPS only topped .800 once and strikeouts became a big issue for him in his late 20s. The Nats kept Desmond at shortstop until he reached free agency even though he was very error-prone. Such a player might move down the defensive spectrum earlier in the Marlins organization in its current state. With the talent that Lombard possesses, he could achieve similar counting stats and accolades by staying relatively healthy. High-end outcome: Troy Tulowitzki MLB seasons: 13 Peak bWAR: 6.7 Career bWAR: 44.8 This would be an absolute top-tier outcome for Jacob Lombard, it is unlikely for any player to be the player Troy Tulowitzki was when he played, but if Lombard reaches his peak potential, the size and talent could be as dominate as Tulo was. This would mean the glove, power, and even hit-tool max out for Lombard, making him a complete 5-tool player. As unlikely as it is, the talent is there. Tulowitzki would've reached even higher career WAR and counting stats if it wasn't for injuries. cv_29056227_1200K.mp4 Jacob Lombard by most critics is one of the highest upside selections in recent Marlins history, the bloodlines and talent are there for Lombard to flourish. While unlikely that Lombard reaches superstar status like Tulowitzki did, the Marlins should expect an everyday big league player in some capacity. View full article

Their first-rounder is understandably hogging many of the headlines given his pre-draft projection and local ties, but the Miami Marlins landed plenty of other intriguing talent in subsequent rounds. I've highlighted the five best draft picks that the Marlins made this year, based on value or sheer player evaluation. 1. Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS (FL) As a consensus top-10 prospect in the draft and a top-three high school prospect, the Miami native was not expected to be available at 14. Lombard has all the tools and family baseball lineage to be considered a 5-tool player, including 60-grade power potential and a high likelihood to stick at shortstop. The largest question looming with Lombard will be the hit tool. Poor contact rates and the tendency to chase are red flags, but the attack angles to the ball on his swing are strong, leading to high flyball rates and to his pull side. Overall, Lombard projects to be a 20-25 home run hitter with above-average to Gold Glove defense at shortstop. The Marlins will likely overslot Lombard, but the potential is worth all the money. 2. Ryan Peterson, RHP, Sam Houston State The Sam Houston State product went 71st overall in Competitive Balance Round B. His results in colleges were decent, 4.67 xFIP, 3.38 ERA, but a 2.62 SIERA, 22.2 K-BB%. and solid chase, whiff, but struggled with damage limitation. But the Marlins are betting on traits. Peterson has an amazing ability to spin the baseball, his repertoire fits how MLB teams approach pitching, deep mix, with the ability to spin the baseball. Peterson's fastball also has an extremely flat approach, similar to Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, and Christian Scott. Peterson's extension down the mound also allows his fastball to play up despite his current lack of velocity. Peterson's tendency to throw strikes should improve with MLB pitching development along with his velocity. Shapes, repertoire, extension, and release heights make him an absolute pitching development darling in the modern game. 3. Trey Beard, LHP, Florida State With Trey Beard, the Marlins selected another college pitcher with unique release height and the ability to spin the baseball with different shapes. (Data visualization via overslotbaseball.com) Beard in 66.2 innings this prior season at Florida State University posted a 4.50 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, 2.35 SIERA and 24.9 K-BB%. He utilizes a high-carry fastball, big curveball, and tight slider. Beard also has a cutter and changeup in his pitch mix. Beard's ability like Peterson to spin the baseball combined with a unique release height and arm slot probably attracted the Marlins to him in the fifth round. 4. Nic Tolbert, 3B, Oktaha HS (OK) In the ninth round the Marlins selected Tolbert and announced him as a third baseman. Tolbert is massive at 6'6". A complete upside selection by the Marlins, the 18-year-old showcases large power potential from the left side of the plate. Tolbert, if signed will most likely get an over-slot deal, Tolbert struggles with offspeed and swing will need some adjustments, the Oklahoma product will need time in the minors and a lot of development, but all the raw tools are prevalent. 5. Colin Linder, RHP, Arizona State Miami's 15th-rounder has a long history of injuries and played mostly out the bullpen in 2026. The results were not good at all in 5.40 ERA, 5.99 xFIP, 4.00 SIERA, 11.2 K-BB%. But most MLB teams draft pitchers in college based on traits. Like the other two pitchers on this list, Linder is interesting from that standpoint. He has an extreme cut-ride fastball sitting 95 and touching 98, solid extension, high-release point, and good spin capacity. He also has a presence on the mound with his 6'5" stature. (Data visualization via overslotbaseball.com) Lacking any pitch that moves arm side, Linder will need to development another pitch to differentiate his shapes and keep hitters off balance. He also struggles with command, suggesting he will most likely work out of the bullpen going forward. He could move fast through the system as a reliever with his stuff if he's able to refine it. View full article

Lake Bachar has been successful out of the Marlins bullpen for parts of three seasons since being claimed off waivers from San Diego. Bachar has been one of the steadiest arms out the ‘pen in 2026. Through 39 ⅓ innings, he has a 2.97 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 20.5 K-BB%. With regular rotation members Eury Pérez and Janson Junk sidelined by injuries, the Marlins have tried to patch things together without a full group of conventional starters. Bachar, for example, has served as an opener three times this month, completing as many as three innings in those situations. The right-hander hasn't pitched consistently in a starting role since early in the 2022 season when he was still at the Double-A level. Would the Marlins dare experiment with stretching him out to fill one of their rotation voids? Bachar has seen his pitch mix expand every season with the Fish. Coming into 2025, he only threw a four-seam fastball, split-finger, and sweeper. Adding a slider in 2025, and now both a curveball and sinker this year has expanded his mix from three pitches to six. Baseball Savant’s movement profile illustrates how Bachar can throw many different shapes and attack batters in a plethora of ways. This is how many of today's top MLB starting pitchers approach the game as well. Bachar ideally fits into how the Marlins approach pitching: off-speed and breaking ball heavy. All of Bachar's non-fastballs have an xAVG under .208 with a xWOBA under .260 and 37.5 whiff% or more. He usage each of those pitches 10% or more, evenly distributing his mix to keep hitters off balance. a0RsWUtfVjBZQUhRPT1fQUZBQ1VsTUFWbEVBQVZGVUFnQUhVZ1VIQUFBQkFBQUFDbDBOQ1FvRVVGZFNBZ0pX.mp4 The addition of the sinker may be pivotal for Bachar's development as a pitcher. Bachar's four-seam struggles against vs. lefty batters as reflected in its hard-hit rate allowed and called strike plus swinging strike rate. The addition of the sinker will be strong vs. RHB, like his four-seam. Experimenting with a cutter, like many other pitchers have, may be a ideal addition for Bachar to have a variation of fastball to attack lefties with. Adding a cutter would continue a league-wide trend of three fastball shapes for pitchers—49% of the league has three fastballs they utilize, compared to 32% ten years ago. Due to Bachar's lack of extension and league-average velocity on the four-seam, it will be more likely to regress in an expanded role. The longer Bachar's outings are, the more plausible that his velo will drop, which is common when players move from the ‘pen to the rotation. TzA0TDRfWGw0TUFRPT1fQjFJSEFnSlJCd2NBRFZFQUFnQUhDRlJVQUZrQlVBQUFCQUVCVmxJREExSlZVbEZU.mp4 Lastly, like with any starter, Bachar's command would be tested. So far, Bachar has a 8.3% BB%. The FanGraphs Location+ metric, gives Bachar overall a 99 Location+ score (100 being average), although this score is severely hindered by his split-finger which registers a 52 Location+. (Heat map via Fangraphs) Overall, Bachar's expanded pitch mix, lack of physical exertion when pitching, and ability to utilize all his pitches in different quadrants of the zone, could allow him to move to the rotation for the Marlins if needed as the 2026 season continues. View full article

The first edition of the 2026 MLB mock draft has arrived. As the college baseball regular season nears its conclusion, my board of top draft-eligible prospects has fallen in place. The Marlins select 14th in the first round. Pick # Team Player Position School Slot Value 1 Chicago White Sox Roch Cholowsky SS UCLA $11,350,600 2 Tampa Bay Rays Grady Emerson SS High School $10,507,000 3 Minnesota Twins Vahn Lackey C Georgia Tech $9,740,100 4 San Francisco Giants Jackson Flora RHP UC Santa Barbara $8,988,400 5 Pittsburgh Pirates AJ Gracia OF Virginia $8,336,500 6 Kansas City Royals Jared Grindlinger LHP/OF High School $7,746,100 7 Baltimore Orioles Drew Burress OF Georgia Tech $7,327,200 8 Athletics Logan Reddemann RHP UCLA $6,982,600 9 Atlanta Braves Cameron Flukey RHP Coastal Carolina $6,675,300 10 Colorado Rockies Jacob Lombard SS High School $6,393,100 11 Washington Nationals Ryder Helfrick C Arkansas $6,133,500 12 Los Angeles Angels Derek Curiel OF LSU $5,889,300 13 St. Louis Cardinals Chris Hacopian INF Texas A&M $5,661,300 14 Miami Marlins Ace Reese 3B/1B Mississippi State $5,444,900 15 Arizona Diamondbacks Eric Booth Jr. OF High School $5,241,000 16 Texas Rangers Sawyer Strosnider OF TCU $5,051,900 17 Houston Astros Aiden Robbins OF Texas $4,868,600 18 Cincinnati Reds Gio Rojas LHP/OF High School $4,696,500 19 Cleveland Guardians Tyler Bell SS Kentucky $4,530,500 20 Boston Red Sx Logan Hughes OF Texas Tech $4,373,900 21 San Diego Padres Tyler Spangler SS High School $4,224,700 22 Detroit Tigers Logan Schmidt LHP High School $4,082,700 23 Chicago Cubs James Clark SS High School $3,947,600 24 Seattle Mariners Cole Carlon LHP Arizona State $3,818,700 25 Milwaukee Brewers Daniel Jackson C Georgia $3,696,000 26 Atlanta Braves* Justin Lebron SS Alabama $3,578,800 27 New York Mets Cole Prosek C/SS High School $3,466,500 28 Houston Astros* Aiden Ruiz SS High School $3,363,600 29 Cleveland Guardians^ Mason Edwards LHP USC $3,270,200 30 Kansas City Royals^ Coleman Borthwick RHP High School $3,190,500 31 Arizona Diamondbacks^ Tegan Kuhns RHP Tennessee $3,118,300 32 St. Louis Cardinals^ Cade Townsend RHP Ole Miss $3,044,600 33 Tampa Bay Rays^ Jarren Advincula 2B Georgia Tech $2,980,200 34 Pittsburgh Pirates^ Liam Peterson RHP Florida $2,897,400 35 New York Yankees Bo Lowrance 3B High School $2,826,700 36 Philadelphia Phillies Connor Comeau SS/C High School $2,758,800 37 Colorado Rockies^ Brody Bumila LHP High School $2,696,700 * = Prospect Promotion Incentive ^ = Competitive Balance Round A Marlins first-round pick: Ace Reese, 3B/1B, Mississippi State Ace Reese is one of the best power-hitting prospects in the 2026 MLB Draft class. He’s also one of the most consistent hitters in this class and continues to show growth after every season. The Mississippi State product has had an extremely successful college career to date. Through 49 games as a junior, Reese has a .317/.420/.688 slash line, with a .463 wOBA, and 17 home runs. Power is the name of the game for Reese, flashing elite exit velocities for a college bat, and staggering barrel rates. Reese's approach is slightly aggressive, although he makes strong contact and whiff numbers for a power bat. Reese slips down draft boards a bit due to lack of a positional home. He has spent most of his time at third base and the corner outfield spots during college, but may be best at first base as he grows older. On many fronts, he resembles 2025 Brewers first-round pick Andrew Fischer, who made waves for himself in the World Baseball Classic (Italy) and has built upon that in High-A. Reese will not add much on the base paths, but would add much needed pop to the Marlins farm system if selected. He'd cost slightly less than half of Miami's total draft bonus pool of $11,960,100. View full article

Starlyn Caba, Fish on First's eighth-ranked prospect, was acquired by the Miami Marlins in the December 2024 trade which sent Jesús Luzardo to the Philadelphia Phillies. One season later, the Phillies looked like they got the better end of the deal, as Luzardo was a crucial piece of their division-winning starting rotation and the left-hander was signed to a five-year contract extension. Meanwhile, Caba struggled with injuries and the stick during his age-19 season. The shortstop played his whole 2025 with the Jupiter Hammerheads. He had a .613 OPS and .284 wOBA, unable to hit the ball with much authority. Fortunately for the Fish, Caba fared much better in the Arizona Fall League. Among the youngest prospects who participated in the AFL, he recorded a 105 mph max exit velocity, .363 wOBA and 42.6% hard-hit rate overall, and continued his strong swing decisions and 70-grade defense at short. He reached base safely in all 18 games he played and earned a Fall Stars Game selection. Three weeks into his 2026 season, Caba has made even more progress in the batter's box. Through 13 games with High-A Beloit, he has a .327/.424/.531 slash line with a .436 wOBA and 153 wRC+. The lack of public batted-ball data from the Midwest League prevents us from speaking on his EVs, but he appears to be mostly deserving of these results. The glove on its own may have given Caba a future MLB role, but this positive development to his hitting profile from a damage perspective mixed with his great plate approach makes him a viable potential building block for the Marlins. While we're at least a full year away from seeing the Dominican switch-hitter in the majors, he has undeniable similarities to some longtime big leaguers. Using them as reference points, I'll lay out three plausible career outcomes for Caba. Low-end outcome: Alcides Escobar MLB seasons: 14 Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 3.5/13.3 Alcides Escobar was an All-Star, Gold Glove award winner, and World Series champion, though all of those accolades came during the same 2015 season. He had an extremely up-and-down career overall. At his peak, Escobar was the spark at the top of the Kansas City Royals lineup. The majority of the time, he was best suited for the bottom of the order, earning his keep with defense and speed. cv_516191283_1200K.mp4 Escobar had a single-season high of only seven home runs and didn't get on base consistently. It wouldn't be unfair to expect Caba to fare better in one or both of those areas in the future. That being said, this kind of stability at shortstop has considerable value. Likely outcome: Jose Iglesias MLB seasons: 13 Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 2.5/16.8 Caba's remarkably smooth actions up the middle are reminiscent of Jose Iglesias. The former top prospect with the Boston Red Sox saw major league time with eight different franchises, making flashy plays every place he went. Iglesias hit for an elite average in several seasons, too. However, like Escobar, his production was limited in terms of homers and walks. Caba's patient approach could elevate him above this tier of player. High-end outcome: Andrés Giménez MLB seasons: seven Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 6.1/16.2 Andrés Giménez is not only still active, but should be for at least another half-decade. The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop is in the midst of his age-27 season. Even with many years of baseball ahead of him, it's safe to say that 2022 will go down as his career year, when he finished sixth in American League MVP voting. Most often utilized at second base in the past, Giménez has been one of the best infield defenders in baseball. He already has three Gold Gloves as well as the 2023 AL Platinum Glove. SzQ3QUJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnQldBUWNDWGxZQUMxVlJYZ0FBQ0FGU0FBQlhXd2NBVkZJRkJBSlFBRkZkVmxaVA==.mp4 If Caba grows into a Giménez-like combination of speed, elite defense and nearly league-average hitting, I believe this would be a fantastic outcome. In an absolute best-case scenario, Caba could maintain even higher OBPs than him. View full article

Coming off of what was a great two-month debut with the Miami Marlins in 2025, Jakob Marsee entered 2026 with lofty expectations. While his defense and baserunning have remained strong, the bat has been lacking to start the new season. Entering Saturday, Marsee's slash line is .148/.254/.204 with a .224 wOBA and 37 wRC+. It's a stark difference from his 133 wRC+ in 55 major league games last year. On the surface, these numbers are poor, and his expected stats only partially paint a better picture. However, a change to Marsee's stance in the batter's box has seemingly contributed to massive increases in important metrics, which will eventually lead to positive outcomes. First off, Marsee has gotten unlucky. His batting average on balls in play has plummeted from .357 as a rookie to .205 as a sophomore. Regression was expected, but this is an overcorrection that has him way underperforming league averages and his own minor league career norms. 7k4rab.mp4 Marsee's hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are much higher than the prior season. Those alone would point to future success, but I can dig even deeper to prove my case. Marsee's approach is potentially his best tool, and that has for the most part been the same as last year. In fact, his in-zone-contact rate has increased to 95%, up 8% from last season and 7% better than the MLB average. He's putting balls in the air more frequently, with his pulled-air rate rising up to 31%, which is nearly doubled the rest of the league. He is chasing outside the zone a tad more, but still ranks in the 83rd percentile in that department, according to Baseball Savant. The home runs are coming for Marsee if he stays consistent with what he's already doing in these areas. Marsee's new tendency to pull balls is no small-sample coincidence. Consider that last year, he stood 30.4 inches deep in the box, whereas this year, his depth is only 27.2 inches. That positioning has caused his "intercept point" to move 7.9 inches in front of home plate, compared to -0.3 inches previously (slightly behind the front of the plate). For context, league average is 2.9 inches in front. Monitoring Marsee's stance changes will be important to see how he adjusts (or doesn't adjust) to his early struggles. From my view, he shouldn't change a thing. These are all indicators of a strong hitting profile and the hits will soon follow. View full article

The biggest positive development for the Marlins during the early portion of the 2026 season has been Sandy Alcantara looking like the best pitcher on the planet. A berth in the MLB postseason is a lot more viable if Alcantara continues to put the team on his back every fifth day. However, the future of Miami's starting rotation is in flux. The club only has its former Cy Young Award winner under contract through 2027, and extending him again probably won't be in the Marlins' budget if this dominance sustains. Fortunately, the Marlins have a young stud with comparable upside in right-hander Eury Pérez. Still a week shy of his 23rd birthday, the former top prospect hasn't yet performed like an ace—in fact, since returning from Tommy John surgery last June, his production is approximately league average (97 ERA+). On the other hand, that may make him receptive to a long-term deal at a reasonable price. Pérez is on track to become arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter and enter free agency after the 2029 season. For the Marlins to extend their next contention window beyond that, signing Pérez to a deal that covers more of his prime years is imperative. It is rare for teams to make long-term commitments to players in this demographic. A couple pre-arb pitchers who have received extensions recently are Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) and Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves). Greene signed his deal on April 18, 2023. The Reds guaranteed $53M for his entire 20s, buying out his arbitration years and potentially two years of free agency if the 2029 club option is exercised. Strider owns the record for largest payday for a pre-arb pitcher. Coming off an electrifying rookie season in 2022, his six-year deal was worth $75M. The structure of Strider's extension was more backloaded than Greene's. In Pérez's case, I would attempt to buy out an additional free agent year. As seen below, this deal would run through 2032, with that row highlighted in light blue representing a club option. He would edge out Strider by receiving $76.5M guaranteed, with a maximum value of $102.5M if the Marlins pick up his option. This would be the longest pitching contract in franchise history and the first player extension of any kind since Peter Bendix took over as president of baseball operations. Season Age Base Salary 2026—Pre-Arb 23 $2.0M 2027—Arb1 24 $5.0M 2028—Arb2 25 $10.5M 2029—Arb3 26 $15.0M 2030—FA 27 $22.0M 2031—FA 28 $22.0M 2032—FA 29 $26.0M Total $102.5M Eury Pérez considers Sandy Alcantara to be a friend and a mentor. Ideally, they'll co-lead the Marlins rotation for years to come. If the resources aren't there to keep both, extending Pérez should be the priority. View full article

Right-hander Bradley Blalock in 2025 had a 9.36 ERA, 7.31 FIP, and -1.0 fWAR through 58 ⅔ innings. Horrible numbers. Although digging way in, some intriguing traits may explain why the Miami Marlins claimed him from the Colorado Rockies in January. Putting the results aside, Blalock has a high arm slot, good metrics on his fastball, a strong splitter, and a deep pitch mix. Blalock's 62-degree arm angle was the second-highest among qualified righties last season. It plays well with his fastball and above-average extension, something that the Marlins have targeted with other arms as of late. With 16 inches of induced vertical break, minimal horizontal break (2") and average velocity, Blalock's fastball should perform better than it has (.431 xWOBA). His past struggles mainly had to do with it being thrown so much middle-middle. He will have to locate it outside the strike zone more often. Highlighting Blalock's best pitch, his splitter, this may have enticed the Marlins to claim him as they have targeted many other split-throwers during the Peter Bendix era so far. Blalock mainly threw his to lefties. It limited damage compared to his other pitches (.318 xwoBACON) and induced more frequent whiffs as well (24.7%). I foresee the Marlins increasing his splitter usage, including throwing it against right-handed hitters. d2U1S1FfWGw0TUFRPT1fRHdaWlZsMVhVQU1BRHdFQUJBQUhVbE5mQUZrQkJsTUFWd0JSQkFwVUFWZFVCZ0pm.mp4 Blalock throws a slider, although it's mainly utilized vs. righties. The pitch did not perform well. While training at Driveline Baseball this offseason, the 25-year-old says he added a sweeper and sinker. That combination could help him generate more ground balls. A cutter and curveball are also used by Blalock. The curveball, like his slider, was destroyed by hitters (.565 xwoBACON). It has a lot of break to it, but does not get hitters out. However, his cutter may have potential. It generated ground balls at a 50% clip, with a 21.2 whiff% and zero barrels allowed. Blalock threw the pitch to hitters of either handedness. Upping its usage could be the next step. With this much-needed change of scenery, Blalock may be on the upswing. As bad as his first two seasons in the major league looked, there is an opportunity with the Marlins if they hit on the right combination of pitch mix tweaks, sequencing changes, and potential biomechanical adjustments. He has one more minor league option left in case it takes some time to recalibrate to his new arsenal. Blalock could eventually offer bulk innings out of the 'pen for the Fish. View full article

Otto López is already one of the better Miami Marlins waiver claims of the past decade, and certainly of the Peter Bendix era. In less than two full seasons since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, he has posted 4.8 fWAR—that's tied with Xavier Edwards for the most total value of any Marlins player. Looking into Lopez further, I believe there is the potential for a breakout in 2026. The data shows his underlying skills are improving. From 2024 to 2025, Lopez increased his bat speed, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate while decreasing his chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. The combination of hitting balls harder without compromising his approach is very encouraging. Stat 2025 +/- 2024 BA .246 -.024 .270 xBA .269 -.003 .272 SLG .368 -.009 .377 xSLG .434 +.032 .402 wOBA .295 -.007 .302 xwOBA .330 +.013 .317 Hard Hit % 38.3 -0.6 38.9 Avg Exit Velocity 88.5 +0.5 88.0 Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 32.5 +2.1 30.4 Barrel % 7.1 +2.0 5.1 Avg Launch Angle 8.4 +3.0 5.4 In Zone % 50.5 0.0 50.5 Out of Zone % 49.5 0.0 49.5 Out of Zone Swing % 29.5 -2.5 32.0 Whiff % 18.9 -3.0 21.0 First Strike % 62.0 -3.0 65.0 First Pitch Swing % 24.0 -5.0 29.0 Swing % 46.3 -5.1 51.4 K% 13.8 -3.5 17.3 BB% 7.4 +1.6 5.8 So why didn't this improvement translate to more production in 2025? Lopez's OPS actually dropped from the year before. That largely comes down to poor luck on balls in play, specifically at loanDepot park. In 2025 at home, Lopez posted a .627 OPS and 73 wRC+, compared to a .714 OPS and 98 wRC+ on the road, with a 31-point gap in BABIP. This was the opposite of 2024, when he performed better at home than on the road. Strange as well is that Lopez increased his pulled fly ball rate and FB% in general. All this points to him having sharply underperformed for reasons beyond his control. As an example, this hard contact of 108.2 mph off the bat of Lopez with a launch angle of 14 degrees had a 74% chance of being a hit. It's expected slugging percentage was north of 1.000 because of the high likelihood it would've been a double or triple had it found grass. A good read by Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela turned it into an out. TzBsMDBfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxOVVV3RlhVZ0VBQ1ZvTEJRQUhVQWRTQUZoV0IxRUFVVjFVQmdWV1YxWmRVUVJR.mp4 Lopez underperformed his xSLG last season against every category of pitch (min. 100 pitches). The 27-year-old could benefit from lifting the ball more, as he still has a ground ball rate above league average. He also has a vulnerability to changeups, producing a .132 AVG .176 SLG, and .158 wOBA against the pitch. Lefties will continue attacking him with them until those results flip. SzRsV2pfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdOUVVnZFdYMUFBV1FkWEF3QUhVZ0ZVQUZoV1ZnSUFVVjFVQ1ZWVVVBdFZBUXBm.mp4 Considering how well Lopez fairs vs. fastballs, I would wager the poor results vs. changeups are a byproduct of selling out for fastballs, rather than him not being able to read offspeed stuff. Besides the likely improvements on the hitting side, Lopez showed the Marlins organization he could stick at shortstop. After swapping positions with Xavier Edwards, he put up plus-four outs above average and plus-seven defensive runs saved. Speaking with Fish On First at Marlins Media Day last Friday, Lopez said that his first step and the accuracy of his throws were areas he focused on improving during his offseason training. Nnk5TW9fWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdoVFVGWlNYd1FBRGxWUVZ3QUhVZ0JlQUZsVFZ3UUFBVlZSVmdZTkJWZFVCUVlF.mp4 If Otto Lopez has luck on his side as I predict for 2026, with a full healthy season and great defense, he will find himself as a top-10 MLB shortstop. The last time a Marlins shortstop finished that highly in fWAR? Adeiny Hechavarría in 2015. View full article

The Miami Marlins have a clearer idea of what their starting rotation will look like after striking a one-year ,$4M deal with Chris Paddack on Monday. Drafted by the Fish in 2015, Paddack has seven seasons of MLB experience, but it's been a bumpy road for him. After a relatively successful yet injury-riddled first three seasons with the Padres, he never regained his footing. Last season between the Tigers and Twins, Paddack had a 5.35 ERA and 5.03 FIP through 158 innings. Not ideal outcomes. The Marlins are making this move with the expectation of extracting more value out of his Paddack than his most recent teams did. How could they do that? Let's begin with what Paddack does well. He limits walks and, if healthy, can eat innings for the Marlins. Paddack was tied for 10th in all of baseball with a 5.5% walk rate (min. 150 IP). Paddack's four-seam fastball is metrically appealing as well, combining Paddack's seven feet of extension with efficient spin, high induced vertical break, and good command at the top of the zone. The issue is, Paddack has no reliable secondary offering and that leaves him too reliant on his fastball. Even with good fastball data, the pitch's velocity is ordinary at 93.7 mph, leaving it vulnerable to damage, especially when hitters anticipate it coming. bGJlQlJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdJRkJnWUNYZ0VBQUFCWFV3QUhVRkJmQUFNRlZnUUFWbFlFQkFZRVVBWUhWRkJm.mp4 The Marlins ought to work on the rest of Paddack's arsenal to keep opponents off balance. Paddack's changeup was his second-most-used pitch last season. The pitch has graded out well per FanGraphs' stuff model in years past, although it was a below-average pitch in 2025. The changeup is commanded very well and generated a lot of chase compared to the MLB league average with a 42.6% O-Swing. With that being said, it was hit hard when catching too much of the zone. Adding more depth on the pitch or tweaking its location could make a big difference. MTZxbjNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdaU1Vsd0hYMUFBWGdGV0F3QUhCUThBQUFNRVcxRUFVRlVGQndzQ0NGWUdBZ1FD.mp4 Paddack also has a large, droopy curveball that he uses to steal called strikes. Overall, though, it is not very useful. The usage of his slider went down from 2024 to 2025. I believe the Marlins should reverse that trend and look to expand on this pitch, modifying it into a sweeper, as they've done with other arms. It could be effective against righties and fit into the east-west approach that he has tried adopting recently. Because Paddack naturally spins the ball well, he most likely will never develop an above-average sinker, but that does not mean he cannot use the pitch effectively. His sinker limited damage in 2025, which is a plus, but induced a ton of contact (90%) and was hit for line drives often. I predict that the Marlins will encourage him to continue using it vs. righties so that they aren't always sitting on his four-seam. ZFh6QllfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdkU0IxSldYd1VBQVFjRFZRQUhBZzlXQUZsVFZ3QUFBUVFCVmdVTlZGWlRVd1Jl.mp4 Lastly, the cutter was poor and not commanded well in 2025. Paddack simply may not have a "feel" for that pitch. Just eating a similar amount of innings as he did last year would make Paddack useful to the Marlins. But in order to feel genuinely satisfied with their investment and get 1 WAR of production out of him, they'll have to tweak his pitch usage and sequencing. View full article

Welcome to the first iteration of Fish On First's 2026 MLB Draft big board. With the start of the college baseball season around the corner, let's begin by focusing on the top 50 draft-eligible players. As the draft approaches, the board will expand, eventually to 200 prospects. Players are ranked from 1-50 based on future value (20-80 scale) and listed along with their school, position, age, height/weight, and handedness. Rank Name Age at Draft School Throw/Bat Position Ht/Wt FV 1 Roch Cholowsky 21 UCLA R/R SS 6'2' - 185 60 2 Grady Emerson 18 Fort Worth Christian HS (TX) L/R SS 6'2" - 180 55 3 Chris Hacopian 21 Texas A&M R/R 3B 6'1" - 180 55 4 AJ Gracia 21 Virginia L/L OF 6'3" - 195 55 5 Cameron Flukey 21 Coastal Carolina R/R RHP 6'6" - 205 55 6 Drew Burress 21 Georgia Tech R/R CF 5'9" - 175 55 7 Jackson Flora 21 UC Santa Barbara R/R RHP 6'4" - 175 55 8 Blake Bowen 18 JSerra Catholic HS (CA) R/R CF 6'3" - 210 55 9 Kevin Roberts Jr. 17 Jackson Prep HS (MS) R/R OF 6'5" - 215 55 10 Eric Becker 21 Virginia L/R 2B/3B 6'3" - 185 50 11 Tyler Spangler 18 De La Salle HS (CA) L/R SS/3B 6'3" - 195 50 12 Tyler Bell 21 Kentucky S/R SS 6'1" - 180 50 13 Liam Peterson 21 Florida R/R RHP 6'5" - 200 50 14 Logan Hughes 21 Texas Tech L/L OF 5'11" - 200 50 15 Ace Reese 21 Mississippi State L/R 3B/OF 6'3" - 180 50 16 Matt Ponatoski 18 Archbishop Moeller HS (OH) L/R SS 6'2" - 190 50 17 Gio Rojas 19 Majory Stoman Douglas HS (FL) L/L LHP 6'4" - 190 50 18 Aiden Ruiz 19 The Stony Brook School HS (NY) S/R SS 5'10" - 165 50 19 Alex Hernandez 20 Georgia Tech R/R 3B 6'2" - 185 50 20 Kaden Waechter 18 Jesuit HS (FL) R/R RHP 6'3" - 190 50 21 Maddox Molony 21 Oregon R/R SS 6'2" - 200 50 22 Trevor Condon 18 Etowah HS (GA) L/R CF 5'11" - 180 50 23 Chris Rembert 21 Auburn R/R 2B/OF 6'0" - 200 50 24 Logan Schmidt 17 Ganehsa HS (CA) L/L LHP 6'4" - 170 50 25 Jacob Lombard 18 Gulliver Prep HS (FL) R/R SS/3B 6'3" - 185 50 26 Joey Volchko 21 Georgia R/R RHP 6'4" - 210 50 27 Eric Booth Jr. 18 Oak Grove HS (MS) L/L CF 6'0" - 205 50 28 Denton Lord 18 South Walton HS (FL) R/R RHP 6'8" - 220 50 29 Wessley Roberson 18 Glynn Academy HS (GA) S/R OF 6'1" - 175 50 30 Keon Johnson 18 First Presbyterian Day HS (GA) R/R INF 6'2" - 195 50 31 Justin Lebron 21 Alabama R/R SS 6'2" - 165 50 32 Malachi Washington 18 Parkview HS (GA) R/R OF 6'0" - 190 45 33 Jake McCoy 21 South Carolina L/L LHP 6'1" - 185 45 34 Chase Brunson 21 TCU R/R OF 6'3" - 185 45 35 James Clark 18 St. John Bosco HS (CA) L/R 2B 6'1" - 195 45 36 Gabe Gaeckle 21 Arkansas R/R RHP 5'11" - 185 45 37 Will Brick 18 Christian Brothers HS (TN) R/R C 6'2" - 195 45 38 Caden Sorrell 21 Texas A&M L/L OF 6'3" - 195 45 39 Owen Kramkowski 21 Arizona R/R RHP 6'3" - 175 45 40 Kollin Ritchie 21 Oklahoma State L/R 3B/OF 6'2" - 220 45 41 Eric Segura 21 Oregon State R/R RHP 6'2" - 200 45 42 Sawyer Strosnider 21 TCU L/L OF 6'2" - 200 45 43 Beau Peterson 18 Mill Valley HS (KS) L/R 3B 6'3" - 205 45 44 Lucas Moore 21 Louisville L/R CF 6'1" - 170 45 45 Jemsen Hirschkorn 18 Kingsburg HS (CA) R/R RHP 6'7" - 210 45 46 Carson Tinney 21 Texas R/R C 6'3" - 220 45 47 Brady Harris 18 Trinity Christian Academy HS (FL) R/R OF 6'2" - 180 45 48 Carson Bolemon 19 Southside Christian HS (SC) L/L LHP 6'4" - 210 45 49 Derek Curiel 21 LSU L/L CF 6'2" - 175 45 50 Andrew Williamson 20 UCF L/L OF 6'0" - 195 45 MLB free agent activity may cause slight changes to the draft order. For the time being, the Marlins hold the 14th, 52nd, 73rd, 88th, 118th, and 150th overall picks. They will select 12th in rounds 6-20. View full article

In 2025, Jakob Marsee emerged as one of the top all-around prospects in the Miami Marlins system, earning himself a midseason call-up to the big leagues. The lefty outfielder hit the ground running and won the National League Rookie of the Month award in August. Even with less production in September, Marsee was the most impactful position player on the club during that two-month span with a slash line of .292/.363/.478, a .363 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ while playing strong center field defense. However, it would not be a fair expectation to count on Marsee maintaining those numbers throughout his upcoming sophomore season. Each of the projection models featured on FanGraphs believe his profile is much closer to that of an average regular than a star. Marsee did a lot of damage at the plate despite a lack of raw power. His bat speed last season was 70.5 mph, nearly 1 mph slower than the MLB average. He posted a shockingly low 3.9% fast swing rate (average was 23.6%). He prioritized making consistent contact over trying to crush the ball. So far, he has enjoyed the best of both worlds and slugged at an impressive level, but moving forward, that approach will likely cost him some extra-base hits. There was a 17-point difference between Marsee's wOBA and xwOBA. These models don't trust that to continue. Marsee is hindered by an ideal attack angle rate of 43.3%, far below the league average of nearly 51%. Barring dramatic changes, Marsee's luck on balls in play is due to regress. He was helped by a .357 BABIP in 2025, but he's universally projected to settle below the .300 mark in 2026. It will be important for Marsee to continue his trend of pulling the ball often. That gives him the highest likelihood of once again outperforming his damage data. WERPNVhfWGw0TUFRPT1fQlFkVkFWWlZBQUlBV1ZaVFZRQUhCUVlBQUZnR1dsSUFVUVlBQXdVQkNRcGNDRlFE.mp4 The 24-year-old offers a high floor regardless. He has an excellent ability to discern balls from strikes and will regularly draw walks as a result. A speedy and instinctual fielder, Marsee was on a full-season pace to produce 12 defensive runs saved. Impacting games positively in that way makes it easy for the Marlins to give him playing time even when struggles inevitably occur at the plate. QXdhcUtfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZBQVVsVUNBZ0VBQUFkVUFBQUhCZ05WQUZoV1ZWWUFBMU5RQWxKUkJBRURVMVJl.mp4 I do believe Marsee should sacrifice some contact for bat speed. He cannot count on being rewarded for mediocre exit velocities as often moving forward, so seek opportunities to sell out for hard hits, especially when his patience gets him into favorable counts. With all due respect to the any fancy projection models, I foresee Marsee faring slightly better than they do in 2026. Assuming no underlying injuries that degrade his tools, he could finish around a 107 wRC+ with 2.8-3.2 fWAR. View full article

Marlins fans have been treated to a whirlwind of activity over the last several weeks. The most accomplished player that they've acquired is Pete Fairbanks, the former Tampa Bay Rays closer who signed a one-year, $13M free agent deal. Fairbanks is capable of being the reliable ninth-inning solution that the Marlins lacked last season. He has had 75 saves in total since 2023, which is 12th-most in baseball over that time span. Although Fairbanks has an impressive résumé, there are mixed signals regarding his future. Fairbanks has experienced a fastball velocity dip in the past two years. The right-hander who once averaged 99 mph on his heater is down to 97 mph. In a related trend, Fairbanks' strikeout rate peaked in 2022 at 43.7% and remained strong at 37% in 2023, but he's been at 24% since then. bGJlUlZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndVREJWd0JBMUFBQUZBQVVRQUhVQVZUQUZoV1Yxa0FCRjBEQWd0V0NRcFdVUW9D.mp4 Under the hood, his fastball still performs well. In 2025, the pitch put up a .286 wOBA, .247 xBA, and 21.9% whiff rate—all of those numbers improved from 2024. Fairbanks has had to improve his command to compensate for the velocity dip. The FanGraphs Location+ model graded the pitch with a 105 last season. He was in the zone with his fastball a career-high 53% of the time, which led to a major increase in zone contact from hitters (78.1%), although the damage remained relatively low. The main reason why Fairbanks' fastball has been able to outperform its expected outcomes (FanGraphs Stuff+ of 99) is because of the combination of his arm angle, vertical approach angle (VAA) and induced vertical break (IVB) on the pitch. He had the third-highest arm angle of all qualified MLB right-handed hitters in 2025 at 59°. His -5.6° VAA was one of the lowest averages for a fastball. His IVB of 16.5" ranked in the 71st percentile. The pitch also had less horizontal break (0.3") then batters anticipated. Despite the decline in strikeout ability, Fairbanks has remained an above-average, borderline All-Star-caliber closer. He showed more durability last season by pitching a career-high 60 ⅓ innings last season. The decrease in velo may be a net positive for Fairbanks, limiting the wear and tear of his high-effort delivery. Fairbanks changed his slider in 2025, in prior seasons the pitch was far more "droopy" or curveball-like. The 2025 version was tighter. The pitch had a decrease in hard-hit rate compared to 2024, yet an increase in average exit velo and home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. He also generated more whiffs. Fairbanks' slider will be imperative to his success in 2026. YkI5bzlfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdVSFZ3VURCQVlBWEFZTFZRQUhCMVJYQUFBRUFnUUFVVlpYVmxFQ0NBcFJVZ0JX.mp4 Moving away from Steinbrenner Field could help Fairbanks, who clearly did not feel comfortable pitching to left-handed hitters at home. His walk rate against them was more than twice as high in Tampa compared to road appearances. His strikeout rate also decreased at home vs. lefties. UHZnUDNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdSWFZ3QUZBZ29BQ1ZOVFVBQUhDRlJRQUZnRldsZ0FCd0ZRVkZVREFRTlFBRk5Y.mp4 Fairbanks added a cutter in September and it has the potential to be a deadly pitch. In a sample of 42 cutters thrown, it had an .158 xwOBA, 0% barrel rate, 55% ground ball rate, and a 26.2% swinging strike rate. The Marlins covet pitchers with deep arsenals, so the cutter's usage could rise going forward. V0EyUllfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdkWkFWUlNVRkVBRDFRREFnQUhBRklDQUFCVFVsZ0FVUVlIVTFVRENGQlVWZ29I.mp4 Even the most generous 2026 projection for Pete Fairbanks as displayed on his FanGraphs player page has the 32-year-old merely matching his 2025 production with 1.0 fWAR. He would need to surpass that for the Marlins to extract fair value for the $13M they're spending on him. That being said, if Fairbanks consistently comes up clutch in close games, his positive impact on the team would go beyond that context-neutral output. The Marlins hope that propels them into postseason contention so that Fairbanks actually spends the entire season in Miami rather than turning into a piece to sell at the trade deadline. View full article