Sean McCormack

Starlyn Caba, Fish on First's eighth-ranked prospect, was acquired by the Miami Marlins in the December 2024 trade which sent Jesús Luzardo to the Philadelphia Phillies. One season later, the Phillies looked like they got the better end of the deal, as Luzardo was a crucial piece of their division-winning starting rotation and the left-hander was signed to a five-year contract extension. Meanwhile, Caba struggled with injuries and the stick during his age-19 season. The shortstop played his whole 2025 with the Jupiter Hammerheads. He had a .613 OPS and .284 wOBA, unable to hit the ball with much authority. Fortunately for the Fish, Caba fared much better in the Arizona Fall League. Among the youngest prospects who participated in the AFL, he recorded a 105 mph max exit velocity, .363 wOBA and 42.6% hard-hit rate overall, and continued his strong swing decisions and 70-grade defense at short. He reached base safely in all 18 games he played and earned a Fall Stars Game selection. Three weeks into his 2026 season, Caba has made even more progress in the batter's box. Through 13 games with High-A Beloit, he has a .327/.424/.531 slash line with a .436 wOBA and 153 wRC+. The lack of public batted-ball data from the Midwest League prevents us from speaking on his EVs, but he appears to be mostly deserving of these results. The glove on its own may have given Caba a future MLB role, but this positive development to his hitting profile from a damage perspective mixed with his great plate approach makes him a viable potential building block for the Marlins. While we're at least a full year away from seeing the Dominican switch-hitter in the majors, he has undeniable similarities to some longtime big leaguers. Using them as reference points, I'll lay out three plausible career outcomes for Caba. Low-end outcome: Alcides Escobar MLB seasons: 14 Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 3.5/13.3 Alcides Escobar was an All-Star, Gold Glove award winner, and World Series champion, though all of those accolades came during the same 2015 season. He had an extremely up-and-down career overall. At his peak, Escobar was the spark at the top of the Kansas City Royals lineup. The majority of the time, he was best suited for the bottom of the order, earning his keep with defense and speed. cv_516191283_1200K.mp4 Escobar had a single-season high of only seven home runs and didn't get on base consistently. It wouldn't be unfair to expect Caba to fare better in one or both of those areas in the future. That being said, this kind of stability at shortstop has considerable value. Likely outcome: Jose Iglesias MLB seasons: 13 Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 2.5/16.8 Caba's remarkably smooth actions up the middle are reminiscent of Jose Iglesias. The former top prospect with the Boston Red Sox saw major league time with eight different franchises, making flashy plays every place he went. Iglesias hit for an elite average in several seasons, too. However, like Escobar, his production was limited in terms of homers and walks. Caba's patient approach could elevate him above this tier of player. High-end outcome: Andrés Giménez MLB seasons: seven Peak fWAR/career fWAR: 6.1/16.2 Andrés Giménez is not only still active, but should be for at least another half-decade. The Toronto Blue Jays shortstop is in the midst of his age-27 season. Even with many years of baseball ahead of him, it's safe to say that 2022 will go down as his career year, when he finished sixth in American League MVP voting. Most often utilized at second base in the past, Giménez has been one of the best infield defenders in baseball. He already has three Gold Gloves as well as the 2023 AL Platinum Glove. SzQ3QUJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnQldBUWNDWGxZQUMxVlJYZ0FBQ0FGU0FBQlhXd2NBVkZJRkJBSlFBRkZkVmxaVA==.mp4 If Caba grows into a Giménez-like combination of speed, elite defense and nearly league-average hitting, I believe this would be a fantastic outcome. In an absolute best-case scenario, Caba could maintain even higher OBPs than him. View full article

Coming off of what was a great two-month debut with the Miami Marlins in 2025, Jakob Marsee entered 2026 with lofty expectations. While his defense and baserunning have remained strong, the bat has been lacking to start the new season. Entering Saturday, Marsee's slash line is .148/.254/.204 with a .224 wOBA and 37 wRC+. It's a stark difference from his 133 wRC+ in 55 major league games last year. On the surface, these numbers are poor, and his expected stats only partially paint a better picture. However, a change to Marsee's stance in the batter's box has seemingly contributed to massive increases in important metrics, which will eventually lead to positive outcomes. First off, Marsee has gotten unlucky. His batting average on balls in play has plummeted from .357 as a rookie to .205 as a sophomore. Regression was expected, but this is an overcorrection that has him way underperforming league averages and his own minor league career norms. 7k4rab.mp4 Marsee's hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are much higher than the prior season. Those alone would point to future success, but I can dig even deeper to prove my case. Marsee's approach is potentially his best tool, and that has for the most part been the same as last year. In fact, his in-zone-contact rate has increased to 95%, up 8% from last season and 7% better than the MLB average. He's putting balls in the air more frequently, with his pulled-air rate rising up to 31%, which is nearly doubled the rest of the league. He is chasing outside the zone a tad more, but still ranks in the 83rd percentile in that department, according to Baseball Savant. The home runs are coming for Marsee if he stays consistent with what he's already doing in these areas. Marsee's new tendency to pull balls is no small-sample coincidence. Consider that last year, he stood 30.4 inches deep in the box, whereas this year, his depth is only 27.2 inches. That positioning has caused his "intercept point" to move 7.9 inches in front of home plate, compared to -0.3 inches previously (slightly behind the front of the plate). For context, league average is 2.9 inches in front. Monitoring Marsee's stance changes will be important to see how he adjusts (or doesn't adjust) to his early struggles. From my view, he shouldn't change a thing. These are all indicators of a strong hitting profile and the hits will soon follow. View full article

The biggest positive development for the Marlins during the early portion of the 2026 season has been Sandy Alcantara looking like the best pitcher on the planet. A berth in the MLB postseason is a lot more viable if Alcantara continues to put the team on his back every fifth day. However, the future of Miami's starting rotation is in flux. The club only has its former Cy Young Award winner under contract through 2027, and extending him again probably won't be in the Marlins' budget if this dominance sustains. Fortunately, the Marlins have a young stud with comparable upside in right-hander Eury Pérez. Still a week shy of his 23rd birthday, the former top prospect hasn't yet performed like an ace—in fact, since returning from Tommy John surgery last June, his production is approximately league average (97 ERA+). On the other hand, that may make him receptive to a long-term deal at a reasonable price. Pérez is on track to become arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter and enter free agency after the 2029 season. For the Marlins to extend their next contention window beyond that, signing Pérez to a deal that covers more of his prime years is imperative. It is rare for teams to make long-term commitments to players in this demographic. A couple pre-arb pitchers who have received extensions recently are Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) and Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves). Greene signed his deal on April 18, 2023. The Reds guaranteed $53M for his entire 20s, buying out his arbitration years and potentially two years of free agency if the 2029 club option is exercised. Strider owns the record for largest payday for a pre-arb pitcher. Coming off an electrifying rookie season in 2022, his six-year deal was worth $75M. The structure of Strider's extension was more backloaded than Greene's. In Pérez's case, I would attempt to buy out an additional free agent year. As seen below, this deal would run through 2032, with that row highlighted in light blue representing a club option. He would edge out Strider by receiving $76.5M guaranteed, with a maximum value of $102.5M if the Marlins pick up his option. This would be the longest pitching contract in franchise history and the first player extension of any kind since Peter Bendix took over as president of baseball operations. Season Age Base Salary 2026—Pre-Arb 23 $2.0M 2027—Arb1 24 $5.0M 2028—Arb2 25 $10.5M 2029—Arb3 26 $15.0M 2030—FA 27 $22.0M 2031—FA 28 $22.0M 2032—FA 29 $26.0M Total $102.5M Eury Pérez considers Sandy Alcantara to be a friend and a mentor. Ideally, they'll co-lead the Marlins rotation for years to come. If the resources aren't there to keep both, extending Pérez should be the priority. View full article

Right-hander Bradley Blalock in 2025 had a 9.36 ERA, 7.31 FIP, and -1.0 fWAR through 58 ⅔ innings. Horrible numbers. Although digging way in, some intriguing traits may explain why the Miami Marlins claimed him from the Colorado Rockies in January. Putting the results aside, Blalock has a high arm slot, good metrics on his fastball, a strong splitter, and a deep pitch mix. Blalock's 62-degree arm angle was the second-highest among qualified righties last season. It plays well with his fastball and above-average extension, something that the Marlins have targeted with other arms as of late. With 16 inches of induced vertical break, minimal horizontal break (2") and average velocity, Blalock's fastball should perform better than it has (.431 xWOBA). His past struggles mainly had to do with it being thrown so much middle-middle. He will have to locate it outside the strike zone more often. Highlighting Blalock's best pitch, his splitter, this may have enticed the Marlins to claim him as they have targeted many other split-throwers during the Peter Bendix era so far. Blalock mainly threw his to lefties. It limited damage compared to his other pitches (.318 xwoBACON) and induced more frequent whiffs as well (24.7%). I foresee the Marlins increasing his splitter usage, including throwing it against right-handed hitters. d2U1S1FfWGw0TUFRPT1fRHdaWlZsMVhVQU1BRHdFQUJBQUhVbE5mQUZrQkJsTUFWd0JSQkFwVUFWZFVCZ0pm.mp4 Blalock throws a slider, although it's mainly utilized vs. righties. The pitch did not perform well. While training at Driveline Baseball this offseason, the 25-year-old says he added a sweeper and sinker. That combination could help him generate more ground balls. A cutter and curveball are also used by Blalock. The curveball, like his slider, was destroyed by hitters (.565 xwoBACON). It has a lot of break to it, but does not get hitters out. However, his cutter may have potential. It generated ground balls at a 50% clip, with a 21.2 whiff% and zero barrels allowed. Blalock threw the pitch to hitters of either handedness. Upping its usage could be the next step. With this much-needed change of scenery, Blalock may be on the upswing. As bad as his first two seasons in the major league looked, there is an opportunity with the Marlins if they hit on the right combination of pitch mix tweaks, sequencing changes, and potential biomechanical adjustments. He has one more minor league option left in case it takes some time to recalibrate to his new arsenal. Blalock could eventually offer bulk innings out of the 'pen for the Fish. View full article

Otto López is already one of the better Miami Marlins waiver claims of the past decade, and certainly of the Peter Bendix era. In less than two full seasons since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, he has posted 4.8 fWAR—that's tied with Xavier Edwards for the most total value of any Marlins player. Looking into Lopez further, I believe there is the potential for a breakout in 2026. The data shows his underlying skills are improving. From 2024 to 2025, Lopez increased his bat speed, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate while decreasing his chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. The combination of hitting balls harder without compromising his approach is very encouraging. Stat 2025 +/- 2024 BA .246 -.024 .270 xBA .269 -.003 .272 SLG .368 -.009 .377 xSLG .434 +.032 .402 wOBA .295 -.007 .302 xwOBA .330 +.013 .317 Hard Hit % 38.3 -0.6 38.9 Avg Exit Velocity 88.5 +0.5 88.0 Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 32.5 +2.1 30.4 Barrel % 7.1 +2.0 5.1 Avg Launch Angle 8.4 +3.0 5.4 In Zone % 50.5 0.0 50.5 Out of Zone % 49.5 0.0 49.5 Out of Zone Swing % 29.5 -2.5 32.0 Whiff % 18.9 -3.0 21.0 First Strike % 62.0 -3.0 65.0 First Pitch Swing % 24.0 -5.0 29.0 Swing % 46.3 -5.1 51.4 K% 13.8 -3.5 17.3 BB% 7.4 +1.6 5.8 So why didn't this improvement translate to more production in 2025? Lopez's OPS actually dropped from the year before. That largely comes down to poor luck on balls in play, specifically at loanDepot park. In 2025 at home, Lopez posted a .627 OPS and 73 wRC+, compared to a .714 OPS and 98 wRC+ on the road, with a 31-point gap in BABIP. This was the opposite of 2024, when he performed better at home than on the road. Strange as well is that Lopez increased his pulled fly ball rate and FB% in general. All this points to him having sharply underperformed for reasons beyond his control. As an example, this hard contact of 108.2 mph off the bat of Lopez with a launch angle of 14 degrees had a 74% chance of being a hit. It's expected slugging percentage was north of 1.000 because of the high likelihood it would've been a double or triple had it found grass. A good read by Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela turned it into an out. TzBsMDBfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxOVVV3RlhVZ0VBQ1ZvTEJRQUhVQWRTQUZoV0IxRUFVVjFVQmdWV1YxWmRVUVJR.mp4 Lopez underperformed his xSLG last season against every category of pitch (min. 100 pitches). The 27-year-old could benefit from lifting the ball more, as he still has a ground ball rate above league average. He also has a vulnerability to changeups, producing a .132 AVG .176 SLG, and .158 wOBA against the pitch. Lefties will continue attacking him with them until those results flip. SzRsV2pfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdOUVVnZFdYMUFBV1FkWEF3QUhVZ0ZVQUZoV1ZnSUFVVjFVQ1ZWVVVBdFZBUXBm.mp4 Considering how well Lopez fairs vs. fastballs, I would wager the poor results vs. changeups are a byproduct of selling out for fastballs, rather than him not being able to read offspeed stuff. Besides the likely improvements on the hitting side, Lopez showed the Marlins organization he could stick at shortstop. After swapping positions with Xavier Edwards, he put up plus-four outs above average and plus-seven defensive runs saved. Speaking with Fish On First at Marlins Media Day last Friday, Lopez said that his first step and the accuracy of his throws were areas he focused on improving during his offseason training. Nnk5TW9fWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdoVFVGWlNYd1FBRGxWUVZ3QUhVZ0JlQUZsVFZ3UUFBVlZSVmdZTkJWZFVCUVlF.mp4 If Otto Lopez has luck on his side as I predict for 2026, with a full healthy season and great defense, he will find himself as a top-10 MLB shortstop. The last time a Marlins shortstop finished that highly in fWAR? Adeiny Hechavarría in 2015. View full article

The Miami Marlins have a clearer idea of what their starting rotation will look like after striking a one-year ,$4M deal with Chris Paddack on Monday. Drafted by the Fish in 2015, Paddack has seven seasons of MLB experience, but it's been a bumpy road for him. After a relatively successful yet injury-riddled first three seasons with the Padres, he never regained his footing. Last season between the Tigers and Twins, Paddack had a 5.35 ERA and 5.03 FIP through 158 innings. Not ideal outcomes. The Marlins are making this move with the expectation of extracting more value out of his Paddack than his most recent teams did. How could they do that? Let's begin with what Paddack does well. He limits walks and, if healthy, can eat innings for the Marlins. Paddack was tied for 10th in all of baseball with a 5.5% walk rate (min. 150 IP). Paddack's four-seam fastball is metrically appealing as well, combining Paddack's seven feet of extension with efficient spin, high induced vertical break, and good command at the top of the zone. The issue is, Paddack has no reliable secondary offering and that leaves him too reliant on his fastball. Even with good fastball data, the pitch's velocity is ordinary at 93.7 mph, leaving it vulnerable to damage, especially when hitters anticipate it coming. bGJlQlJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdJRkJnWUNYZ0VBQUFCWFV3QUhVRkJmQUFNRlZnUUFWbFlFQkFZRVVBWUhWRkJm.mp4 The Marlins ought to work on the rest of Paddack's arsenal to keep opponents off balance. Paddack's changeup was his second-most-used pitch last season. The pitch has graded out well per FanGraphs' stuff model in years past, although it was a below-average pitch in 2025. The changeup is commanded very well and generated a lot of chase compared to the MLB league average with a 42.6% O-Swing. With that being said, it was hit hard when catching too much of the zone. Adding more depth on the pitch or tweaking its location could make a big difference. MTZxbjNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdaU1Vsd0hYMUFBWGdGV0F3QUhCUThBQUFNRVcxRUFVRlVGQndzQ0NGWUdBZ1FD.mp4 Paddack also has a large, droopy curveball that he uses to steal called strikes. Overall, though, it is not very useful. The usage of his slider went down from 2024 to 2025. I believe the Marlins should reverse that trend and look to expand on this pitch, modifying it into a sweeper, as they've done with other arms. It could be effective against righties and fit into the east-west approach that he has tried adopting recently. Because Paddack naturally spins the ball well, he most likely will never develop an above-average sinker, but that does not mean he cannot use the pitch effectively. His sinker limited damage in 2025, which is a plus, but induced a ton of contact (90%) and was hit for line drives often. I predict that the Marlins will encourage him to continue using it vs. righties so that they aren't always sitting on his four-seam. ZFh6QllfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdkU0IxSldYd1VBQVFjRFZRQUhBZzlXQUZsVFZ3QUFBUVFCVmdVTlZGWlRVd1Jl.mp4 Lastly, the cutter was poor and not commanded well in 2025. Paddack simply may not have a "feel" for that pitch. Just eating a similar amount of innings as he did last year would make Paddack useful to the Marlins. But in order to feel genuinely satisfied with their investment and get 1 WAR of production out of him, they'll have to tweak his pitch usage and sequencing. View full article

Welcome to the first iteration of Fish On First's 2026 MLB Draft big board. With the start of the college baseball season around the corner, let's begin by focusing on the top 50 draft-eligible players. As the draft approaches, the board will expand, eventually to 200 prospects. Players are ranked from 1-50 based on future value (20-80 scale) and listed along with their school, position, age, height/weight, and handedness. Rank Name Age at Draft School Throw/Bat Position Ht/Wt FV 1 Roch Cholowsky 21 UCLA R/R SS 6'2' - 185 60 2 Grady Emerson 18 Fort Worth Christian HS (TX) L/R SS 6'2" - 180 55 3 Chris Hacopian 21 Texas A&M R/R 3B 6'1" - 180 55 4 AJ Gracia 21 Virginia L/L OF 6'3" - 195 55 5 Cameron Flukey 21 Coastal Carolina R/R RHP 6'6" - 205 55 6 Drew Burress 21 Georgia Tech R/R CF 5'9" - 175 55 7 Jackson Flora 21 UC Santa Barbara R/R RHP 6'4" - 175 55 8 Blake Bowen 18 JSerra Catholic HS (CA) R/R CF 6'3" - 210 55 9 Kevin Roberts Jr. 17 Jackson Prep HS (MS) R/R OF 6'5" - 215 55 10 Eric Becker 21 Virginia L/R 2B/3B 6'3" - 185 50 11 Tyler Spangler 18 De La Salle HS (CA) L/R SS/3B 6'3" - 195 50 12 Tyler Bell 21 Kentucky S/R SS 6'1" - 180 50 13 Liam Peterson 21 Florida R/R RHP 6'5" - 200 50 14 Logan Hughes 21 Texas Tech L/L OF 5'11" - 200 50 15 Ace Reese 21 Mississippi State L/R 3B/OF 6'3" - 180 50 16 Matt Ponatoski 18 Archbishop Moeller HS (OH) L/R SS 6'2" - 190 50 17 Gio Rojas 19 Majory Stoman Douglas HS (FL) L/L LHP 6'4" - 190 50 18 Aiden Ruiz 19 The Stony Brook School HS (NY) S/R SS 5'10" - 165 50 19 Alex Hernandez 20 Georgia Tech R/R 3B 6'2" - 185 50 20 Kaden Waechter 18 Jesuit HS (FL) R/R RHP 6'3" - 190 50 21 Maddox Molony 21 Oregon R/R SS 6'2" - 200 50 22 Trevor Condon 18 Etowah HS (GA) L/R CF 5'11" - 180 50 23 Chris Rembert 21 Auburn R/R 2B/OF 6'0" - 200 50 24 Logan Schmidt 17 Ganehsa HS (CA) L/L LHP 6'4" - 170 50 25 Jacob Lombard 18 Gulliver Prep HS (FL) R/R SS/3B 6'3" - 185 50 26 Joey Volchko 21 Georgia R/R RHP 6'4" - 210 50 27 Eric Booth Jr. 18 Oak Grove HS (MS) L/L CF 6'0" - 205 50 28 Denton Lord 18 South Walton HS (FL) R/R RHP 6'8" - 220 50 29 Wessley Roberson 18 Glynn Academy HS (GA) S/R OF 6'1" - 175 50 30 Keon Johnson 18 First Presbyterian Day HS (GA) R/R INF 6'2" - 195 50 31 Justin Lebron 21 Alabama R/R SS 6'2" - 165 50 32 Malachi Washington 18 Parkview HS (GA) R/R OF 6'0" - 190 45 33 Jake McCoy 21 South Carolina L/L LHP 6'1" - 185 45 34 Chase Brunson 21 TCU R/R OF 6'3" - 185 45 35 James Clark 18 St. John Bosco HS (CA) L/R 2B 6'1" - 195 45 36 Gabe Gaeckle 21 Arkansas R/R RHP 5'11" - 185 45 37 Will Brick 18 Christian Brothers HS (TN) R/R C 6'2" - 195 45 38 Caden Sorrell 21 Texas A&M L/L OF 6'3" - 195 45 39 Owen Kramkowski 21 Arizona R/R RHP 6'3" - 175 45 40 Kollin Ritchie 21 Oklahoma State L/R 3B/OF 6'2" - 220 45 41 Eric Segura 21 Oregon State R/R RHP 6'2" - 200 45 42 Sawyer Strosnider 21 TCU L/L OF 6'2" - 200 45 43 Beau Peterson 18 Mill Valley HS (KS) L/R 3B 6'3" - 205 45 44 Lucas Moore 21 Louisville L/R CF 6'1" - 170 45 45 Jemsen Hirschkorn 18 Kingsburg HS (CA) R/R RHP 6'7" - 210 45 46 Carson Tinney 21 Texas R/R C 6'3" - 220 45 47 Brady Harris 18 Trinity Christian Academy HS (FL) R/R OF 6'2" - 180 45 48 Carson Bolemon 19 Southside Christian HS (SC) L/L LHP 6'4" - 210 45 49 Derek Curiel 21 LSU L/L CF 6'2" - 175 45 50 Andrew Williamson 20 UCF L/L OF 6'0" - 195 45 MLB free agent activity may cause slight changes to the draft order. For the time being, the Marlins hold the 14th, 52nd, 73rd, 88th, 118th, and 150th overall picks. They will select 12th in rounds 6-20. View full article

In 2025, Jakob Marsee emerged as one of the top all-around prospects in the Miami Marlins system, earning himself a midseason call-up to the big leagues. The lefty outfielder hit the ground running and won the National League Rookie of the Month award in August. Even with less production in September, Marsee was the most impactful position player on the club during that two-month span with a slash line of .292/.363/.478, a .363 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ while playing strong center field defense. However, it would not be a fair expectation to count on Marsee maintaining those numbers throughout his upcoming sophomore season. Each of the projection models featured on FanGraphs believe his profile is much closer to that of an average regular than a star. Marsee did a lot of damage at the plate despite a lack of raw power. His bat speed last season was 70.5 mph, nearly 1 mph slower than the MLB average. He posted a shockingly low 3.9% fast swing rate (average was 23.6%). He prioritized making consistent contact over trying to crush the ball. So far, he has enjoyed the best of both worlds and slugged at an impressive level, but moving forward, that approach will likely cost him some extra-base hits. There was a 17-point difference between Marsee's wOBA and xwOBA. These models don't trust that to continue. Marsee is hindered by an ideal attack angle rate of 43.3%, far below the league average of nearly 51%. Barring dramatic changes, Marsee's luck on balls in play is due to regress. He was helped by a .357 BABIP in 2025, but he's universally projected to settle below the .300 mark in 2026. It will be important for Marsee to continue his trend of pulling the ball often. That gives him the highest likelihood of once again outperforming his damage data. WERPNVhfWGw0TUFRPT1fQlFkVkFWWlZBQUlBV1ZaVFZRQUhCUVlBQUZnR1dsSUFVUVlBQXdVQkNRcGNDRlFE.mp4 The 24-year-old offers a high floor regardless. He has an excellent ability to discern balls from strikes and will regularly draw walks as a result. A speedy and instinctual fielder, Marsee was on a full-season pace to produce 12 defensive runs saved. Impacting games positively in that way makes it easy for the Marlins to give him playing time even when struggles inevitably occur at the plate. QXdhcUtfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZBQVVsVUNBZ0VBQUFkVUFBQUhCZ05WQUZoV1ZWWUFBMU5RQWxKUkJBRURVMVJl.mp4 I do believe Marsee should sacrifice some contact for bat speed. He cannot count on being rewarded for mediocre exit velocities as often moving forward, so seek opportunities to sell out for hard hits, especially when his patience gets him into favorable counts. With all due respect to the any fancy projection models, I foresee Marsee faring slightly better than they do in 2026. Assuming no underlying injuries that degrade his tools, he could finish around a 107 wRC+ with 2.8-3.2 fWAR. View full article

Marlins fans have been treated to a whirlwind of activity over the last several weeks. The most accomplished player that they've acquired is Pete Fairbanks, the former Tampa Bay Rays closer who signed a one-year, $13M free agent deal. Fairbanks is capable of being the reliable ninth-inning solution that the Marlins lacked last season. He has had 75 saves in total since 2023, which is 12th-most in baseball over that time span. Although Fairbanks has an impressive résumé, there are mixed signals regarding his future. Fairbanks has experienced a fastball velocity dip in the past two years. The right-hander who once averaged 99 mph on his heater is down to 97 mph. In a related trend, Fairbanks' strikeout rate peaked in 2022 at 43.7% and remained strong at 37% in 2023, but he's been at 24% since then. bGJlUlZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndVREJWd0JBMUFBQUZBQVVRQUhVQVZUQUZoV1Yxa0FCRjBEQWd0V0NRcFdVUW9D.mp4 Under the hood, his fastball still performs well. In 2025, the pitch put up a .286 wOBA, .247 xBA, and 21.9% whiff rate—all of those numbers improved from 2024. Fairbanks has had to improve his command to compensate for the velocity dip. The FanGraphs Location+ model graded the pitch with a 105 last season. He was in the zone with his fastball a career-high 53% of the time, which led to a major increase in zone contact from hitters (78.1%), although the damage remained relatively low. The main reason why Fairbanks' fastball has been able to outperform its expected outcomes (FanGraphs Stuff+ of 99) is because of the combination of his arm angle, vertical approach angle (VAA) and induced vertical break (IVB) on the pitch. He had the third-highest arm angle of all qualified MLB right-handed hitters in 2025 at 59°. His -5.6° VAA was one of the lowest averages for a fastball. His IVB of 16.5" ranked in the 71st percentile. The pitch also had less horizontal break (0.3") then batters anticipated. Despite the decline in strikeout ability, Fairbanks has remained an above-average, borderline All-Star-caliber closer. He showed more durability last season by pitching a career-high 60 ⅓ innings last season. The decrease in velo may be a net positive for Fairbanks, limiting the wear and tear of his high-effort delivery. Fairbanks changed his slider in 2025, in prior seasons the pitch was far more "droopy" or curveball-like. The 2025 version was tighter. The pitch had a decrease in hard-hit rate compared to 2024, yet an increase in average exit velo and home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. He also generated more whiffs. Fairbanks' slider will be imperative to his success in 2026. YkI5bzlfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdVSFZ3VURCQVlBWEFZTFZRQUhCMVJYQUFBRUFnUUFVVlpYVmxFQ0NBcFJVZ0JX.mp4 Moving away from Steinbrenner Field could help Fairbanks, who clearly did not feel comfortable pitching to left-handed hitters at home. His walk rate against them was more than twice as high in Tampa compared to road appearances. His strikeout rate also decreased at home vs. lefties. UHZnUDNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdSWFZ3QUZBZ29BQ1ZOVFVBQUhDRlJRQUZnRldsZ0FCd0ZRVkZVREFRTlFBRk5Y.mp4 Fairbanks added a cutter in September and it has the potential to be a deadly pitch. In a sample of 42 cutters thrown, it had an .158 xwOBA, 0% barrel rate, 55% ground ball rate, and a 26.2% swinging strike rate. The Marlins covet pitchers with deep arsenals, so the cutter's usage could rise going forward. V0EyUllfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdkWkFWUlNVRkVBRDFRREFnQUhBRklDQUFCVFVsZ0FVUVlIVTFVRENGQlVWZ29I.mp4 Even the most generous 2026 projection for Pete Fairbanks as displayed on his FanGraphs player page has the 32-year-old merely matching his 2025 production with 1.0 fWAR. He would need to surpass that for the Marlins to extract fair value for the $13M they're spending on him. That being said, if Fairbanks consistently comes up clutch in close games, his positive impact on the team would go beyond that context-neutral output. The Marlins hope that propels them into postseason contention so that Fairbanks actually spends the entire season in Miami rather than turning into a piece to sell at the trade deadline. View full article

After the trade of Dane Myers last weekend, the Miami Marlins found themselves with a shortage of right-handed-hitting outfielders. They acted quickly to fill that hole, acquiring Esteury Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. Ruiz spent most of his age-26 season in Triple-A for the Dodgers and put up monster numbers. In the 106 games he played at that level in 2025, he slashed .304/.412/.511 with a .411 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in Triple-A. It's worth noting that Ruiz originally reached AAA way back in 2022. Repeating a familiar level can lead to improved results without meaningful development, but in his case, there have been some encouraging signs under the hood. Ruiz shined vs. left-handed pitching this past season with a .358/.425/.569 slash line, four home runs and 12 doubles in 123 at-bats. He showed a patient plate approach with a solid amount of in-zone contact at 85.7% and a chase rate in the 67th percentile among AAA hitters, according to Prospect Savant. Ruiz has no issue hitting fastballs—he had an xwOBA above .360 against four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters. His whiff rate against fastballs was only 21.2%, compared to 31.5% vs. sliders, changeups, and curveballs. eUxXckxfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZBUUZBRmNGVlZNQUFWSUJBZ0FIVkFjQUFBTUNVVmtBQWdNSFUxWUZBQUJSQVZNQQ==.mp4 Ruiz's power is lacking, but his speed allows him to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, helping the overall slugging profile. ZzZQUWxfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JWSlRCbE1HVUFRQVcxSUxWQUFIQUZjRkFGa0NCVmNBVVZ3TUFGVU1VMVpRVVFZSA==.mp4 In 2023, Ruiz led the American league in stolen bases with 67 despite missing a full month of that season on the injured list. He ran even more frequently and efficiently in Oklahoma City last season, with 63 steals on 74 attempts in 104 games there. Andrew Pinckney (Washington Nationals) is the only player to spend the majority of 2025 in AAA and register a higher Sprint Speed than Ruiz. TDZPVk9fV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZGSlFYVlJYQkFRQUNRWUVYd0FIVTFCUkFGa05VUVVBQUFjRUJsRlFWVmRjVlFNQw==.mp4 Ruiz's ability to cover ground in the outfield will be useful at loanDepot park. His arm holds him back from succeeding in center field, therefore he profiles best in left field where opponents will have fewer opportunities to take advantage of him. Esteury Ruiz could play an impactful role for the Marlins. He would be best utilized as a platoon bat vs. left-handed pitchers and as a bench option to steal bases. With one minor league option left, he will still need to put his talent on display during spring training to earn his spot on the Opening Day roster. View full article

The Miami Marlins have a two-headed, left-handed-pitching monster rapidly approaching the big leagues after wreaking havoc down on the farm. Robby Snelling led all minor league southpaws with 166 strikeouts in 2025. He spent half of his season with Triple-A Jacksonville, making 11 starts for the Jumbo Shrimp with only nine earned runs allowed. Nearly a year younger than Snelling, Thomas White missed bats at an even higher rate. He got a cup of coffee in Jacksonville (two starts) to end the season. Although neither are on Miami's 40-man roster yet, both prospects are likely to debut during the 2026 season. Snelling's success was the bigger surprise coming off an uneven 2024 campaign. He sliced his ERA in half (from 5.15 to 2.51) and improved his xFIP by more than a full run (from 3.80 to 2.72). These are elite numbers for any prospect, especially one who's facing Double-A and Triple-A competition as a starter. The curveball is Snelling's best pitch. It got a 42.70% whiff rate in Triple-A and a low .241 xwOBA, faring well against both lefties and righties. The pitch resembles former Marlin Andrew Heaney's curveball, but with much more velocity on it (averaging 82.6 mph). ckRPWTFfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0R3ZFJBRklNWGdjQUMxb0dWZ0FIQWdNQ0FGZ0hWVllBQjFVQkExRUNCUXNFQkZNSA==.mp4 An increase in velo has benefited Snelling's whole pitch mix. His fastball sat at 94.7 mph in Triple-A. He mostly removed the sinker from his arsenal as a result of being able to overpower hitters with the four-seamer and commanding it so well. Snelling's fastball has characteristics comparable to Tanner Scott's. Both get around 16.7 inches of induced vertical break (IVB), close to six inches of arm-side run, and just over six feet of extension down the mound during their delivery. Snelling's ability to locate more precisely and his slightly lower arm angle (approx. 26.6 degrees) are more conducive to long-term performance even if his velo doesn't continue to climb. Overall, his fastball performed well in Triple-A, posting a 36.5 whiff% and a .200 xwOBA. ckRPWTFfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0FBSlpCZ1pRQWxjQUFRQlFYd0FIQVZkVEFBTlRBZ0lBVUZFRVVnSURBd1pjQjFCUw== (1).mp4 Snelling was in the strike zone 54.5% of the time in Triple-A, which would have ranked top 10 among MLB starters in 2025. He mixed his pitches in such a way that hitters only swung at 62% of in-zone pitches, the same as Hunter Brown. Even when they did, their 77.5% zone contact rate was Dylan Cease-like. Outside the zone, the contact rate was 50.7%, on par with NL Cy Young Award runner-up Cristopher Sánchez (50.5%). He also thrived at limiting hard contact with a 3.5% barrel rate and 28.5% hard-hit rate. Snelling showed minimal flaws in 2025, and continuing a trend from his San Diego Padres days, he was injury-free. He has emerged as a complete pitcher. This is not meant to diminish Thomas White at all (2.31 ERA and 2.80 xFIP in 89.2 IP). His "stuff" may be slightly better than Snelling's, including a fastball that sits 95 mph and touched triple digits on several occasions. His sweeper is practically a cheat code for getting whiffs both in and out of the zone. UUFkQnFfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1VBQlVWRkVCVkZNQUNRRUJVZ0FIQkFkVEFBQlVCVllBQkZkVUJBQUVBVmNIVmdNRQ==.mp4 However, White's lack of efficiency is a potential concern when looking ahead to how he'd fit in a major league rotation. He finished Double-A with a walk rate of 12.6%, and it ballooned to 25% his two starts of Triple-A. Although it's reasonable to project further improvement in that area—he is entering his age-21 season—waste pitches will likely always be part of his formula, similar to somebody like Blake Snell. White has completed six innings only once in a professional game. For context, Snelling did that 14 times in 2025 alone. The future is bright for both Marlins minor leaguers. White is universally ranked higher on public prospect lists due to his ceiling, but it may be easier to forecast consistent success for Snelling at the highest level. One thing's for sure: they will command a lot of attention when they report to spring training in February as non-roster invitees. View full article

Tyler Demon Zuber is the best move the Marlins have made.

In a surprising move, the Miami Marlins selected catcher Liam Hicks in the 2024 Rule 5 draft. Where would he fit in with an organization that already had two highly regarded catching prospects—Agustín Ramírez and Joe Mack—at the upper minor league levels? It turns out that there was meaningful role for Hicks to fill in the short term while Ramírez spent much of his rookie season as Miami's designated hitter and Mack continued to develop at Triple-A. Showing a very polished plate approach, Hicks played 119 games, slashing .247/.346/.346 with a .313 wOBA and 98 wRC+ in 2025. His stock has clearly gone up since being exposed to the Rule 5 last year. However, Mack is still on his way as we were reminded last week when the Marlins selected him to their 40-man roster. They also have not given up on the idea of Ramírez behind the plate despite his struggles on defense so far. Although Hicks is well-positioned to crack the Opening Day roster and would serve as solid depth over the course of the season, this may be a good opportunity to flip him to another team with a clearer need for his services. The Milwaukee Brewers may be interested in Hicks after declining their mutual option on Danny Jansen. The Brewers still have William Contreras and top prospect Jeferson Quero, but those are the only catchers on their 40-man. With Contreras getting increasingly expensive and Quero's MLB readiness in question after a few injury-riddled seasons, Hicks would have value to them next season and beyond. Marlins acquire: LHP DL Hall and OF Brandon Lockridge Brewers acquire: C/1B Liam Hicks and player to be named later DL Hall was a former first-round pick of the Orioles in 2017. He was a piece of the Corbin Burnes trade during the 2023-24 offseason. The past two seasons in Milwaukee, Hall has not found his footing. He has missed out on meaningful playing time at the big league level while battling through knee, lat, and oblique injuries. In 81 ⅔ innings pitched as a Brewer (33 G/10 GS), he has posted a 4.30 ERA and 4.66 xFIP while experiencing a drop in velocity compared to his days in Baltimore. Health permitting, Hall would have an expanded role with the Marlins. He throws a wide variety of pitches—something the Marlins are always looking for. He could be stretched out if needed, but I believe he is best served coming out of the bullpen. M3k0ajZfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdWVlhGSUJWd1VBREFCVFZnQUhBbEFGQUZoVEFRTUFBUVlBQWxBR0IxVlJVbEZT.mp4 Hall is still only 27, but has used up all of his minor league options entering 2026. Quite a contrast from Hall, Lockridge was a fifth-round pick of the Yankees in 2018 and has fought his way to the big leagues. He joined the Brewers at this past trade deadline in a deal that sent Nestor Cortes to the Padres. Lockridge has certainly struggled with the bat in his couple stints in the majors, slashing .231/.276/.299 through 34 games in 2025. But in Triple-A, he slashed .351/.413/.404 after being traded to the Brewers. There may be reason to believe Lockridge is on the cusp of a breakout season. From 2024 to 2025, his average exit velocity against AAA competition increased by 3 mph, his hard-hit rate by nearly 8%, and his in-zone contact rate by 5%. These trends are indicative of an improving player. M3k0ZU5fWGw0TUFRPT1fVWxjRlZsY01CRlFBQ1FZR1VnQUhDVk1EQUZsV0FnY0FCRllOQkFwVUFGVlRCMU5U.mp4 Lockridge has 99th-percentile Sprint Speed and he rated as a great defender in limited MLB action (5 OAA). Entering his age-29 season, he profiles similarly to former Marlin Derek Hill, except with potentially more upside as a hitter and two minor league options left. As of this writing, the Marlins 40-man roster is full, so they would have to open up a spot with a separate transaction to make room for both Hall and Lockridge. The PTBNL going with Hicks to Milwaukee would be determined following next month's Rule 5 draft. In 2022, the Marlins acquired Jake Mangum from the New York Mets under these conditions. Mangum was traded after MLB teams declined to take him in that year's Rule 5. In this case, the Brewers would be eyeing right-hander Matt Pushard. The former undrafted free agent had an extremely successful season in AAA, pitching 62 ⅓ innings to the tune of a 3.61 ERA with a 2.98 FIP. Pushard has four pitches with a stuff+ of 102 or better, according to Prospect Savant's model. If Pushard departs in the Rule 5, the Brewers would have their choice of the Marlins' other Rule 5-eligible relievers, such as Zach McCambley or Dale Stanavich. View full article