Ely Sussman

We know that the Miami Marlins are open-minded to doing almost anything prior to Monday's MLB trade deadline, but anticipating specific moves is especially difficult this year. History teaches us that the vast majority of big leaguers who switch teams in deadline deals are either pending free agents or a year away from free agent eligibility, and the Marlins have very few of those. Pete Fairbanks was supposed to be their obvious trade candidate under these circumstances. Outside of a minimum-length injured list stint in late April/early May, the veteran closer has been available, throwing gas...and perplexingly bad. He owned a 6.83 ERA and 5.17 FIP entering the All-Star break, having already matched a single-season career-high with seven home runs allowed. The break did him no favors as Fairbanks had another dispiriting performance in Milwaukee on July 19, blowing a 2-0 lead and extending the club's losing streak to six games at the time. No save situations presented themselves over the next week, so Fairbanks wasn't utilized again until July 26. Since then, he has been flawless—four appearances, 12 batters faced, 12 batters retired. It is the longest streak of perfection that we've seen from the 32-year-old during his Marlins tenure. It took only seven pitches for him to secure Friday's victory against the New York Mets, marking his most efficient inning of the season. There haven't been notable changes to Fairbanks' velocity or pitch mix in this microscopic sample. He is still heavily reliant on fly balls (Friday's final out would have cleared the fence of 15 MLB ballparks, according to Statcast). He is constantly getting ahead in the count, but that has quietly been a strength of his throughout 2026 with a personal-best 66.9% first-pitch strike rate. The trade deadline is ultimately a supply-and-demand equation. Working in the Marlins' favor, the vast majority of established closers around the league are on contending teams that have no interest in moving them. Over the last three seasons, Fairbanks ranks 14th in MLB with 65 saves. The only name above him on that leaderboard who is both healthy and presumed to be available is Kenley Jansen of the Detroit Tigers. Jansen is six years older than Fairbanks and continuing to struggle with his control (15.7 BB% compared to Fairbanks' 9.3 BB%). Fairbanks is owed about $4 million through the end of the regular season, though the Marlins won't be motivated to move him simply to cut costs when they already have MLB's lowest payroll. They will be weighing whether the upside of the young players being offered in exchange for him outweighs the production he'd provide in August and September during their pursuit of a postseason berth.

Fish On First has created this landing page to be frequently updated throughout the year with the latest on injuries affecting Miami Marlins players in both the majors and minors. Major league injuries RHP Anthony Bender (15-day IL, right shin stress reaction) Last official game appearance: June 27 Throwing up to 75 feet as of July 22 Projected return to Marlins active roster: August OF Owen Caissie (10-day IL, right calf strain) Last official game appearance: July 31 (rehab assignment, Jacksonville) Projected return to Marlins active roster: early August RHP Josh Ekness (60-day IL, right calf strain) Last official game appearance: July 28 (rehab assignment, Jacksonville) Projected return to Marlins active roster: early August RHP Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL, right UCL reconstruction with internal brace procedure) Last official game appearance: September 28, 2025 Throwing from 60 feet as of July 17 Projected to miss entire 2026 season RHP William Kempner (15-day IL, right elbow sprain) Last official game appearance: July 11 Shut down from throwing as of July 17 RHP Adam Mazur (60-day IL, right UCL reconstruction surgery) Last official game appearance: March 2 Underwent surgery on March 11 Recovery timeline of 13-14 months Will miss remainder of 2026 season RHP Max Meyer (15-day IL, neck strain) Last official game appearance: July 18 Visited neck specialist in Los Angeles on July 20 Shut down from throwing for the next two weeks as of July 24, then will be re-evaluated Projected return to Marlins active roster: mid-September LHP Andrew Nardi (60-day IL, left rib cage stress reaction) Last official game appearance: May 27 Continuing throwing progression as of July 17 Projected return to Marlins active roster: September LHP Robby Snelling (60-day IL, left UCL repair surgery with internal brace) Last official game appearance: May 8 Underwent surgery on May 23 (performed by Dr. Keith Meister) Recovery timeline of 10-12 months Will miss remainder of 2026 season Minor league injuries Players are listed in alphabetical order INF Aiva Arquette (7-day IL, left thumb) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: June 26 1B Chris Arroyo (60-day IL, torn left meniscus) Assigned to Low-A Jupiter Last official game appearance: April 3 Will miss remainder of 2026 season LHP RJ Shunck (60-day IL) Assigned to Low-A Jupiter Last official game appearance: April 14 Eligible to be reinstated on June 14 RHP Tristan Stevens (60-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: April 17, 2025 RHP Jesús Tinoco (full-season IL, right UCL reconstruction surgery) Assigned to Triple-A Jacksonville Last official game appearance: June 2, 2025 Underwent surgery in September 2025 Began throwing program on March 9 OF Fenwick Trimble (7-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: July 17 RHP Samuel Vásquez (60-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: April 16 RHP Logan Whitaker (7-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: May 17 LHP Thomas White (7-day IL, left shoulder capsular sprain) Assigned to Triple-A Jacksonville Last official game appearance: May 14 Recovery timeline of 12-16 weeks RHP Alex Williams (7-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: July 25 LHP Kaiden Wilson (full-season IL) Assigned to FCL Marlins Last official game appearance: August 19, 2025

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Jeremiah Geiger is currently atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) on Thursday RHP Janson Junk (MIA) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (NYM) on Friday RHP Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs. LHP Zac Thornton (NYM) on Saturday TBA (MIA) vs. TBA (NYM) on Sunday The Marlins rank 16th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 12th in MLB with a 4.05 FIP. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have a 21-31 record on the road this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Anthony Bender (15-day IL), Owen Caissie (10-day IL), Josh Ekness (60-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), William Kempner (15-day IL), Adam Mazur (60-day IL), Andrew Nardi (60-day IL) and Robby Snelling (60-day IL). The Mets rank 24th in MLB with a 94 wRC+ and 11th in MLB with a 4.02 FIP. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have a 24-31 record at home this season. The following Mets players are on the injured list: Reed Garrett (60-day IL), Justin Hagenman (60-day IL), Clay Holmes (60-day IL), Tylor Megill (60-day IL), Dedniel Núnez (60-day IL), Juan Soto (10-day IL), Mark Vientos (10-day IL) and Austin Warren (15-day IL).

Fish On First staffers react to the latest Miami Marlins series and prepare you for what lies ahead. Wednesday's show was hosted by Jeremiah Geiger and featured panelists Ely Sussman and Sean Millerick. The following topics were covered: Griffin Conine's late-game heroics against the Phillies Sandy Alcantara's unique place in Marlins history How the Marlins should approach the trade deadline Reports of them "listening" on Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks and others Previewing and predicting the next series against the New York Mets You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our next FOF LIVE episode will be on Sunday at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET following the Marlins-Mets series finale.

Prior to the start of each new Miami Marlins series, we invite the Fish On First staff, FOF LIVE guests and SuperSubs to participate in Prediction Time. Results for the 2026 season will be tracked here. This is how the scoring system works: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) That's a maximum of three points per series. Rank Name Total Prediction Points Series Winner Points Series MVP Points 1 Jeremiah Geiger 46 39 7 2 David Fernandez 43 34 9 3 TenofSpades BK 42 36 6 4 Baby Seal 40 33 7 5 Sportsman38 39 33 6 6 Robert Hanson 37 31 6 7 Daniel Rodriguez 36 34 2 8 Sean Millerick 35 30 5 9 Hector Rodriguez 34 33 1 10 Chad Turner 34 28 6 11 Hans Herrera 33 29 4 12 Kevin Barral 31 27 4 13 2qbn 30 28 2 14 Ely Sussman 29 25 4 15 Bassmaster4 29 26 3 16 Stevo 28 26 2 17 Nate Karzmer 28 24 4 18 JustMyFandom 25 22 3 19 1993 fan from start 24 22 2 20 Richard 23 20 3 21 Sean McCormack 22 19 3 22 Gabriel Revilla 22 19 3 23 Saul Goodman 22 21 1 24 MRDHU75 21 20 1 25 rings 21 20 1 26 Alex Carver 21 19 2 27 Loud Miami Fan 20 18 2 28 M.J.S 20 18 2 29 Shawn 19 17 2 30 Jose Herrera 17 17 0 31 HAMPTIME 17 14 3 32 JustMarlins 15 12 3 33 Michael Cronin 13 12 1 34 David Slaton 12 11 1 35 Louis Addeo-Weiss 11 10 1 36 Burr 10 9 1 37 Ryan Schlesinger 7 7 0 38 Alex Krutchik 7 6 1 39 Thomas Joseph 7 7 0 40 Casey Marika 6 5 1 41 Isaac Azout 6 6 0 42 Slacker Mills 5 4 1 43 One Regend 5 5 0 44 Rob V 4 4 0 45 njp 2 2 0 46 MarlinszDude86 1 1 0 47 ducat2 1 1 0 48 Hippyboi 1 1 0 49 tbonemalone 1 1 0 50 ForeverMarlins 0 0 0 Last series

Just under one week away from the MLB trade deadline, Miami Marlins insider Craig Mish summarized the club's current approach during Monday's television pregame show: "I think there clearly is a pivot for the Marlins at this point. I don't expect them to be flat-out sellers—that I do not expect. But I also don't believe they will be buying any players for right now. Any trades that they potentially will make I believe will be for the future. "If you're asking if any players could be traded from this year's team, I still think it's to be determined. You have to look at players that are on expiring contracts at the end of this season. A lot of teams are gonna certainly call regardless of the outcome of this season on Pete Fairbanks. He has an expiring contract at the end of the season. Somebody could certainly take a shot on him at the end of the year. Whether or not he gets traded, I don't know the answer." "But as far as players on this team, we have to stop talking about Sandy Alcantara being traded! He's not going to be traded. And there are a lot of players on this team...Eury Pérez, Max Meyer, Joe Mack—these are cornerstone-type players. I believe they will be with this team through the deadline and through the future." Perhaps this is reading too much into it, but Otto Lopez—the Marlins' best player this season by any measure who's under club control through 2029—was not included among Mish's cornerstone guys. Vague rumors began circulating earlier in the day that the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are inquiring about Lopez's availability. Needless to say, it would be exceptionally expensive for another team to acquire the All-Star shortstop given his combination of on-field production and contract status. Following the TV segment, Mish added that left-hander Braxton Garrett is a trade candidate to "keep a close eye on." Repeatedly passed over for call-up opportunities this summer, Garrett has thrived with Triple-A Jacksonville, as Kevin Barral and I discussed on Fish Unfiltered. Kevin included Garrett in his Liam Hicks mock trade article and I included him in my own Heriberto Hernández mock.

A decades-long obsession has turned into an official partnership. I am thrilled to announce that Fish On First is now a Baseball Reference Brand Ambassador! Throughout my entire career covering the Miami Marlins and for many years prior to that as an avid baseball fan, BR has been—without exaggeration—my most-visited website. All year-round, there is a tab on my browser reserved for BR so that I can immediately pull up an MLB or MiLB player's page, check league leaderboards or run an obscure Stathead query (save 20% on an annual subscription when you enter discount code FOF at checkout). From the beginning, this research tool has been absolutely indispensable to FOF, elevating the quality of our original articles and social media posts with good, bad and goofy Marlins stats discovered through BR and Stathead. As a Brand Ambassador, I'm proud to highlight the vast variety of information that's accessible to you. Even right now, when the vibes around the Fish are as rancid as could be, you will find great insights and entertainment within the pages of Baseball Reference. Also, collaborating with them moving forward will introduce more fans to our comprehensive Marlins coverage. Thanks again to the BR community for welcoming FOF.

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Jeremiah Geiger is currently atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) on Monday RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) on Tuesday TBA (MIA) vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (PHI) on Wednesday The Marlins rank 15th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 12th in MLB with a 4.06 FIP. They are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have a 32-22 record at home this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Anthony Bender (15-day IL), Owen Caissie (10-day IL), Josh Ekness (60-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), William Kempner (15-day IL), Adam Mazur (60-day IL), Andrew Nardi (60-day IL) and Robby Snelling (60-day IL). The Phillies rank 29th in MLB with a 90 wRC+ and fifth in MLB with a 3.81 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 29-22 record on the road this season. The following Phillies players are on the injured list: Tanner Banks (60-day IL), Adolis García (60-day IL), Brad Keller (60-day IL), Rafael Marchán (10-day IL), Johan Rojas (60-day IL), Garrett Stubbs (10-day IL) and Lou Trivino (15-day IL).

You cannot ascribe a baseball team's success or failure to any individual player. Take Heriberto Hernández, for example. The Miami Marlins outfielder is playing the best ball of his major league career right now and his reps have gone up accordingly. Over the last 10 games in particular, Hernández has played every single inning while slashing .325/.357/.600. The Marlins have lost all 10 of those games. This agonizing streak has complicated the Marlins' trade deadline approach. The team has malfunctioned in so many areas simultaneously that it's difficult to foresee them behaving as traditional buyers—there aren't enough quality players on the market to address everything. During these turbulent times, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix may lean into his mantra of simply extracting good value whenever it's available. In that case, Bendix ought to be listening carefully on Hernández. Less than two years ago, the Marlins signed Hernández as a minor league free agent. Less than three months ago, Hernández was demoted to Triple-A Jacksonville due to awful offensive performance. This is a very volatile asset. The upcoming deadline appears to be Miami's opportunity to sell high on the 26-year-old. Bert's hot streak far predates the losing streak—it goes all the way back to when he was recalled from Jacksonville on May 7. He owns a 148 wRC+ since then, which leads the Marlins and ranks 18th across MLB among players with at least 150 plate appearances. Even that understates Hernández's appeal, because most of the 17 names ahead of him are completely untouchable (Yordan Alvarez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Nick Kurtz, etc.). For teams seeking an immediate boost to their run production against left-handed pitching, Hernández ought to be near the top of their wish list. Not even eligible for arbitration yet, Hernández's salary is just a hair above the MLB minimum. He is potentially under club control all the way through the 2031 season. But as mentioned above, he's volatile. Although his quality of contact has been terrific, he currently ranks in the ninth percentile among MLB hitters in whiff rate. There is a scenario in which pitchers around the league find a way to exploit that with his strikeout rate climbing as a result. Whenever weighing whether or not to move on from a player, the team's front office must consider what their internal replacements are. The Marlins have some legitimately intriguing right-handed power bats at Triple-A, most notably Kemp Alderman and Agustín Ramírez. Alderman, who has just learned to play first base in addition to the corner outfield spots, has little left to prove in the minors with a .293/.361/.546 slash line and 21 home runs in 84 AAA games dating back to last year. Hernández is blocking him. It is unusual for effective, pre-arb hitters to change teams in deadline deals. Coincidentally, the closest comp for Hernández in recent years is Jake Burger. The Marlins were on the other side of that equation, acquiring Burger from the Chicago White Sox in 2023. The cost was left-hander Jake Eder. As I revisited in this article, the Marlins won the trade. However, that shouldn't deter them from flipping the script if a borderline Top 100 MLB prospect with a plus-plus breaking ball is dangled in exchange for Hernández. If that is not ambitious enough for you, perhaps Hernández could help the Marlins plug a gaping hole in their current starting rotation. The Seattle Mariners match up well as a potential trade partner, with a rare surplus of starters and the need for another lefty masher. Who says no to a package of Hernández, Braxton Garrett and Brandon White (Fish On First #20 prospect) for Emerson Hancock? That would potentially allow the Marlins to thread the needle of selling high on Bert (and White) while adding enough rotation depth to stay in postseason contention.