Ely Sussman

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Sean McCormack currently sits atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) on Tuesday RHP Max Meyer (MIA) vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) on Wednesday LHP Robby Snelling (MIA) vs. TBD (MIN) on Thursday The Marlins rank 13th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 10th in MLB with a 3.82 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 5-10 record on the road this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL) and Adam Mazur (60-day IL). Fairbanks is expected to be reinstated during this series. The Twins rank 15th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 20th in MLB with a 4.31 FIP. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have a 10-10 record at home this season. The following Twins players are on the injured list: Mick Abel (15-day IL), Garrett Acton (15-day IL), Taj Bradley (15-day IL), David Festa (60-day IL), Cody Laweryson (15-day IL), Pablo López (60-day IL) and Cole Sands (15-day IL). View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the Washington Nationals. Heriberto Hernández started in place of Owen Caissie, who was scratched with left triceps tightness. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez RF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Christopher Morel LF Heriberto Hernández 3B Javier Sanoja C Joe Mack (L) P Sandy Alcantara Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

As of Sunday morning, we are approximately 25% of the way through this Miami Marlins season. Relative to expectations, the results have been underwhelming. They are on pace for a 73-89 record, which would be worse than anybody on the Fish On First staff predicted. If you're like me, you can find entertainment value in both victory and defeat when encountering extreme stats. Gotta give the Marlins some credit for overdelivering in that department. Here are five single-season franchise records that are currently on pace to be rewritten, ordered from least sustainable to actually plausible. Highest ERA in a single inning (team) Marlins record: 6.67 ERA in the seventh (1999) 2026 Marlins pace: 7.65 ERA in the first If it feels like these Marlins constantly find themselves playing from behind, it's because they are. Through 40 games, they have allowed 36 first-inning runs (34 of them earned). Every member of the club's starting rotation has contributed to the problem, even newcomer Robby Snelling, who immediately fell behind 3-0 in his major league debut. But overall, the Marlins have a solid pitching staff with an ERA no higher than 4.50 in any other inning. Let's chock up this extreme split to early-season randomness. Most hits in a single season (player) Marlins record: 221 (Juan Pierre, 2004) 2026 Otto Lopez pace: 222 Nobody has come particularly close to challenging Pierre's record over the last two-plus decades. The speedy center fielder played every inning of every game in 2004, starting in the leadoff spot the vast majority of the time—that allowed him to accrue 748 plate appearances, which is another franchise record. Otto Lopez is on pace to edge past JP by the slimmest of margins. Historically, Lopez has been inexplicably lousy against left-handed pitching, but that has completely flipped this season with a 21-for-47 start (.447 BA). The immense workload required to keep this up makes Lopez a longshot. He's also being buoyed by a record-worthy .411 batting average on balls in play. Even with great hustle out of the batter's box and frequent hard-hit contact, that mark is unsustainable. Regardless, Lopez is establishing himself as the most well-rounded shortstop that the Marlins have ever had. Lowest caught stealing rate (team) Marlins record: 11.2% (2025) MLB record: 9.6% (San Diego Padres, 2007) 2026 Marlins pace: 8.3% Controlling the running game has been a serious ongoing issue for the Fish dating back to early last season. Opponents are unafraid to challenge the arms of Liam Hicks and Agustín Ramírez, and they're able to get huge jumps against a heavily right-handed pitching staff that's generally slow to the plate. Recent prospect promotions should go a long way toward addressing this vulnerability. Joe Mack will deter thieves with his arm strength and accuracy. Robby Snelling adds a lefty to the rotation with a great minor league track record of limiting steals. Mack has started at catcher in six of his first seven games on the active roster. If he comes close to maintaining that workload moving forward, both the league and team CS% records should be out of reach. Most stolen bases (team) Marlins record: 177 (2003) 2026 Marlins pace: 178 Although not with the same efficiency, the Marlins have run the bases just as aggressively as their opponents have. This trend has more staying power. The addition of speed demon Esteury Ruiz is working exactly as intended—through only 12 games, he already ranks second on the Fish with six steals. Once Jakob Marsee (10 SB) reaches base with the regularity he's capable of, that will create more opportunities to pad the team's total. At the very least, the Marlins will probably eclipse last season's mark of 138 steals. Highest strikeout rate in a qualified season (player) Marlins record: 28.7% (Preston Wilson, 1999) 2026 Connor Norby pace: 31.4% Brian Anderson struck out 28.8% of the time in 2020, but I'm not counting that because the season was limited to 60 games due to COVID. This was supposed to be an opportunity to lament the struggles of Owen Caissie, who is striking out over forty percent of the time. However, the rookie's propensity to whiff has appropriately limited his playing time. It's difficult to envision him sticking in the big leagues for the entire season, and even if he does, reaching the 502 plate appearances needed to qualify is unlikely. I was not expecting to find Connor Norby here considering that his 2026 campaign has been an overall improvement from the year before. Quietly, though, his K rate has been Caissie-like over the last 30 days. In two-strike counts, changeups and splitters are especially problematic for him. Norby's newfound patience at the plate and solid transition to first base should keep him in the lineup frequently despite being strikeout-prone. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's home series against the Washington Nationals. Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) SS Otto Lopez DH Liam Hicks (L) LF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Connor Norby CF Jakob Marsee (L) RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Leo Jiménez C Joe Mack (L) P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's home series against the Washington Nationals. Pregame roster moves: Robby Snelling selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; Stephen Jones designated for assignment Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) SS Otto Lopez RF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Christopher Morel DH Connor Norby LF Javier Sanoja C Joe Mack (L) 3B Leo Jiménez CF Esteury Ruiz P Robby Snelling Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the Baltimore Orioles. Pregame roster moves: Heriberto Hernández recalled and Stephen Jones selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; Dax Fulton and Graham Pauley optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup SS Otto Lopez 1B Connor Norby C Liam Hicks (L) DH Christopher Morel LF Heriberto Hernández RF Esteury Ruiz CF Jakob Marsee (L) 2B Leo Jiménez 3B Javier Sanoja P Max Meyer Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Sean McCormack currently sits atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: LHP Robby Snelling (MIA) vs. LHP Foster Griffin (WSH) on Friday RHP Janson Junk (MIA) vs. RHP Zack Littell (WSH) on Saturday RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Cade Cavalli (WSH) on Sunday The Marlins rank 16th in MLB with a 98 wRC+ and 11th in MLB with a 3.87 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 12-11 record at home this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL) and Adam Mazur (60-day IL). The Nationals rank 11th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 29th in MLB with a 5.08 FIP. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have a 12-7 record on the road this season. The following Nationals players are on the injured list: Clayton Beeter (15-day IL), Josiah Gray (60-day IL), Cole Henry (15-day IL), DJ Herz (60-day IL), Max Kranick (15-day IL), Ken Waldichuk (60-day IL) and Trevor Williams (60-day IL). View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's home series against the Baltimore Orioles. Pregame roster moves: Dax Fulton recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; William Kempner optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) 3B Connor Norby LF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Christopher Morel RF Owen Caissie (L) C Joe Mack (L) SS Javier Sanoja P Eury Pérez Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's home series against the Baltimore Orioles. Pregame roster moves: William Kempner recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; Chris Paddack designated for assignment Starting Lineup 2B Xavier Edwards (S) 1B Liam Hicks (L) SS Otto Lopez LF Kyle Stowers (L) CF Jakob Marsee (L) DH Connor Norby C Joe Mack (L) RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Sandy Alcantara Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

Less than three months after signing Chris Paddack in free agency, the Miami Marlins designated him for assignment on Tuesday, as first reported by The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. The veteran right-hander has been the glaring weak link in an otherwise effective Marlins starting rotation. In 30 ⅔ innings pitched this season, Paddack has a 7.63 ERA and 5.00 FIP. This past Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies was rock bottom (2.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K). In addition to being completely ineffective, his four-seam fastball velocity plummeted to 91.3 mph, the lowest average velo he's ever had in a game across part of eight MLB seasons. The Marlins on Monday evaluated Paddack for a potential injury, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, but ultimately did not find anything to justify an IL stint. Instead of moving forward with an untrustworthy arm, they are turning the page. Unless another pitcher-needy team values the 30-year-old enough to claim him off waivers and take responsibility for what remains of his $4 million salary, the Fish are on the hook for it. The Marlins won on April 5 when Paddack served as the bulk guy out of their bullpen against the New York Yankees, but they lost all six of his traditional starts. To fill Paddack's active roster spot for Tuesday's game, the Marlins will recall right-handed reliever William Kempner from Triple-A Jacksonville, according to MLB.com's Christina De Nicola. Kempner owns a bonkers 47.9% strikeout rate this season, but he's struggling with his control, hence a 6.46 ERA in 15 ⅓ innings pitched. Kempner is a placeholder until the Marlins bring up a new starter in the coming days to fill Paddack's rotation spot. That job will go to either Braxton Garrett or Robby Snelling. The latter is not yet on Miami's 40-man roster, but the DFA has created an opening for him to be selected. View full article

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the fourth and final game of Miami's home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Pregame roster moves: Joe Mack selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; Agustín Ramírez optioned to Jacksonville Starting Lineup CF Jakob Marsee (L) LF Kyle Stowers (L) SS Otto Lopez 2B Xavier Edwards (S) DH Liam Hicks (L) 1B Christopher Morel C Joe Mack (L) RF Owen Caissie (L) 3B Graham Pauley (L) P Janson Junk Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

SuperSubs, comment below with your Prediction Time picks: 1. How many games will the Marlins win in this series? (three-game series) 2. Who will be the Series MVP? (determined by win probability added) Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) Here is a reminder of what the 2025 season leaderboard looked like. FOF staffer Sean Millerick currently sits atop the 2026 leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt on Tuesday RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Brandon Young on Wednesday RHP Max Meyer (MIA) vs. LHP Cade Povich on Thursday The Marlins rank 11th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ and 11th in MLB with a 3.91 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 11-9 record at home this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Pete Fairbanks (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL) and Adam Mazur (60-day IL). The Orioles rank 13th in MLB with a 99 wRC+ and 22nd in MLB with a 4.48 FIP. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have an 6-11 record on the road this season. The following Orioles players are on the injured list: Félix Bautista (60-day IL), Zach Eflin (60-day IL), Ryan Helsley (15-day IL), Yaramil Hiraldo (60-day IL), Jackson Holliday (10-day IL), Heston Kjerstad (10-day IL), Dean Kremer (15-day IL), Ryan Mountcastle (60-day IL), Trevor Rogers (15-day IL), Colin Selby (60-day IL) and Jordan Westburg (60-day IL). View full article

The Miami Marlins are addressing an immediate weakness by promoting somebody who they hope will prove to be a long-term building block. Catcher Joe Mack is being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville, as first reported by Craig Mish of Marlins.TV following Sunday's loss. The corresponding roster move will be optioning Agustín Ramírez to Jacksonville. The Marlins won't be announcing the move until Monday. Mack was the 31st overall pick of the 2021 MLB Draft. It wasn't until the 2024 season that he began emerging as an impact player in their farm system. Now ranked third on the Fish On First Top 30, he has spent more than a full year at Triple-A. In those 123 games, he is slashing .249/.334/.444 with 21 home runs and nine stolen bases. But the 23-year-old projects to be even more valuable on defense. Minor League Baseball's 2024 Gold Glove award winner at catcher, Mack possesses a plus-plus arm and at least average ability as a receiver, blocker and framer. In 23 games at catcher this season, he has a 29% caught stealing rate (the International League average is 22%). Without Mack's services, the Marlins have allowed an MLB-high 42 steals. They also were the league's worst in that department in 2025. Not only does Mack stand out among Marlins position player talent, he's ranked 50th overall on Baseball America's Top 100 MLB prospects list, 54th on MLB Pipeline's and 37th on Just Baseball's. Meanwhile, second-year backstop Liam Hicks has dramatically boosted his stock, emerging as the Marlins' leading run producer. Mack figures to start the majority of games behind the plate moving forward, but Hicks should get ample playing time at designated hitter and first base while still catching about twice per week. Although demoting Ramírez is entirely justified, the timing of this move came as a surprise because the Marlins had been continuing to give him regular reps. Playing in 31 of a possible 34 games, the "Gus Bus" is slashing .239/.328/.358 (86 wRC+). He has homered only twice despite being gifted with elite raw power. Ramírez is a horrible defensive catcher and he has been since the moment the Marlins acquired him in 2024. The organization has stubbornly kept his full focus on that position rather than attempting to create some versatility with work at first base or the corner outfield spots. That makes him an awkward fit for their active roster now that Mack has been deemed fully ready. Ramírez entered this year with all three of his minor league options intact. View full article

Missing yet another game today 😬 We will look into it...

Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal readers. These notes apply to the third game of Miami's home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Starting Lineup SS Otto Lopez C Agustín Ramírez RF Kyle Stowers (L) 1B Connor Norby 2B Xavier Edwards (S) DH Christopher Morel 3B Leo Jiménez CF Esteury Ruiz LF Javier Sanoja P Chris Paddack Click HERE to download the full game notes (preview below)

A pair of bizarre yet impressive streaks came to an end last weekend. The longer and far more publicized streak belonged to Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz. From April 10 through May 1, the reigning American League Rookie of the Year drew walks in 20 consecutive games. He became the first MLB player in nearly a quarter-century to do so (Barry Bonds, 2002-03). Brandon Compton had a 12-game walk streak to close out his month of April. While the duration was modest by comparison, the concentration of his free passes was absurd enough to merit an entire article, in my view. The 2025 Miami Marlins draftee averaged nearly two walks per game, while Kurtz averaged only 1.20, and he did it without the benefit of any intentional walks. Compton's streak ended Friday night, but he promptly began a new one on Saturday. He walked thrice more on Sunday. One month into his season with High-A Beloit, Compton has been the second-most productive qualified hitter in the Marlins organization in terms of wRC+. His on-base percentage is a cool .500. Unsurprisingly, his MiLB-leading 35.4% walk rate is doing most of the heavy lifting. Where are all of these walks coming from and what does this statistical oddity mean for his long-term outlook? Compton is Fish On First's 25th-ranked prospect largely due to his power-hitting potential. We have seen flashes of that in 2026 as he's slugging .434 (the Midwest League average is .401). Utilizing a tiny leg kick, the 22-year-old generates massive exit velocities to his pull side. However, there is no reasonable expectation of Compton becoming the next Kurtz. Drafted fourth overall the year before Compton, Kurtz slugged nearly .700 between minor league ball and the Arizona Fall League. The latter is four inches taller and effortlessly blasts balls over the fence to all fields. With few exceptions, Compton uses the first pitch of his plate appearances to gather information on the opposing pitcher. He has stepped to the plate 82 times this season and put the first pitch in play only once. Using this past series as an example, Compton swung just 10.3% of the time in 0-0 counts. To put that in perspective, the lowest first-pitch swing rate among qualified MLB hitters belongs to Steven Kwan at 9.7%. Compton is a product of his environment to some extent. The Midwest League has a 13.4 BB% this season, which is higher than any other affiliated full-season league. A combination of weather, pitching injuries and umpiring is leading to more pitches missing the strike zone. Only 52.0% of total pitches thrown to Compton have been strikes. Going back to Kurtz as a reference point, his strike rate is 55.3%, and that is despite being universally feared. The left-handed Compton sees the ball well against fellow southpaws, drawing 11 walks in 26 plate appearances. On the other hand, he's still hitless against them (0-15 with 10 K). Showing competency in that area will be an important box for him to check before being considered for a promotion to Double-A. Compton is on pace to draw approximately 146 walks this season, which would obliterate the Marlins MiLB record (114 BB by Kerwin Moore in 1993). Since comprehensive record-keeping across all minor leagues began in 2006, Jack Cust has posted the highest single-season total (143 BB in 2006). All things considered, Cust is a useful Compton comp with a similar skill set and physical attributes. He slashed .242/.374/.439 (123 wRC+) with 105 home runs in 670 MLB games—that'd be an optimistic outcome for Compton's career. View full article

This podcast is brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. Make sure to use promo code FISHONFIRST to receive 10% off your next booking. We're bringing you a bonus episode of Fish Unfiltered this week! Ely Sussman and Nate Karzmer react to the call-up of right-hander Josh Ekness, then do an overview of the first month-plus of the 2026 Miami Marlins season. Which players have boosted their stock since Opening Day and which ones have us most concerned? You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. The Marlins completed April with a 15-16 record, sitting in second place in the National League East division. The historic start to Liam Hicks' sophomore season has been a bright spot. Hicks has already exceeded his home run total from 2025 while driving in more runs than any other MLB catcher ever has at this point on the calendar. Otto López and Xavier Edwards have also been in NL batting title contention, forming arguably the best middle infield in the sport. Sandy Alcantara is stabilizing Miami's starting rotation, Janson Junk is comfortably holding onto his own rotation spot, and John King and Michael Petersen are impressing out of the bullpen. After being the Marlins' best right-handed hitter as a rookie, Heriberto Hernández slumped so severely last month that he's been demoted to Triple-A Jacksonville. Although there's no imminent threat of Agustín Ramírez or Jakob Marsee getting sent down, they have each taken significant steps back in terms of both results and underlying stats. Chris Paddack is easily the rotation's weakest link and Anthony Bender has been far too inconsistent to be trusted in high-leverage situations. During the month of May, Ely predicts that Robby Snelling will make his major league debut. Nate predicts that former first-round draft pick Jacob Berry will debut and that Kyle Stowers will rediscover his power stroke with five home runs. View full article