Ely Sussman

It's still too early in the MLB season to judge a player based on their overall offensive production. We need a much larger sample size before commissioning Otto Lopez's Marlins Legends Hall of Fame plaque or dismissing Jakob Marsee as a flash in the pan. In that vein, rookie outfielder Owen Caissie has flown under the radar ever since his opening weekend walk-off home run. That is because entering Monday, his 2026 numbers are right in line with where leading projection systems said he'd be. The 23-year-old left-handed-hitter owns a .246/.294/.426 slash line and a 96 wRC+, frequently producing hard contact...when he actually makes contact. Some stats stabilize quicker than others, and therein lies the concern with Caissie. His strikeout rate (42.6 K%) is the highest in MLB among all hitters with comparable playing time. It won't be possible for him to have a significant long-term role with the Fish unless he improves in that area. Prior to 2026, Caissie's only big league experience was a 12-game cup of coffee with the Chicago Cubs last summer. He remains very young for this level with all but one of the pitchers he has faced as a Marlin being older than him. On the other hand, he had nearly two full seasons at Triple-A to prepare. Whatever caveats you want to apply to Caissie, he finds himself in an exclusive, mostly undesirable club to begin his Marlins tenure. Through his first 20 games with the franchise, he has the third-highest strikeout total (29) of any position player, according to Stathead, trailing only Alex Jackson (35) and Giancarlo Stanton (33). Player Span Started Span Ended SO PA Alex Jackson 2021-08-02 2021-08-26 35 66 Giancarlo Stanton 2010-06-08 2010-07-02 33 85 Owen Caissie 2026-03-27 2026-04-19 29 68 Jerar Encarnacion 2022-06-19 2022-09-12 28 70 Lewis Brinson 2018-03-29 2018-04-22 28 79 Garrett Jones 2014-03-31 2014-04-22 28 86 Avisaíl García 2022-04-08 2022-05-03 27 82 Curtis Granderson 2019-03-29 2019-04-23 27 74 Chad Wallach 2018-03-29 2019-04-11 27 67 Stanton is a historical outlier who skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to Miami and was nearly three years younger than Caissie is now. Also, an inflated K rate is more forgivable for a right-handed hitter considering that they are at a platoon disadvantage most of the time. The other names above fall into two distinct groups: those on the verge of ending their MLB careers and those who would never become competent hitters in the first place. On the bright side, there is another comparable Marlin who was only one strikeout shy of appearing in that table himself. Kyle Stowers compiled 26 Ks in his first 20 contests upon arriving via trade; from his 21st game onward, Stowers has been elite. If Caissie also swung-and-missed at a league-worst rate, it would be difficult to see him turning the corner, but his strikeout issue is more nuanced than that. His passive plate approach is a major factor. He has taken too many hittable pitches, swinging at just 58.2% of pitches in the strike zone (MLB average is 67.0%). As a result, 10 of his strikeouts have come on called third strikes. As Marlins bench coach Carson Vitale elaborated on prior to Sunday's game, Caissie's improvement will hinge more on swing decisions than swing mechanics. That being said, Caissie's current mechanics do leave him susceptible to high velocity. He has only produced four balls in play against pitches of at least 94 mph. Contrast that with teammate and fellow Canadian Liam Hicks, who has done so 16 times in a similar number of plate appearances. Even with Stowers newly reinstated from the injured list, there is ample room for Caissie to continue starting regularly against right-handers for the foreseeable future. Let's circle back to this around Memorial Day if "Big Red" is still having a big problem with punchouts.

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) Here is a reminder of what the 2025 season leaderboard looked like. FOF staffer Jeremiah Geiger currently sit atop the 2026 leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Max Meyer (MIA) vs. RHP Michael McGreevy (STL) on Monday RHP Chris Paddack (MIA) vs. RHP Dustin May (STL) on Tuesday RHP Janson Junk (MIA) vs. RHP Kyle Leahy (STL) on Wednesday The Marlins rank 15th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ and 17th in MLB with a 4.15 FIP. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have a 8-5 record at home this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Maximo Acosta (10-day IL), Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), Adam Mazur (60-day IL), Christopher Morel (10-day IL) and Esteury Ruiz (10-day IL). The Cardinals rank 13th in MLB with a 103 wRC+ and 27th in MLB with a 4.84 FIP. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a 6-3 record on the road this season. The following Cardinals players are on the injured list: Hunter Dobbins (15-day IL), Lars Nootbaar (60-day IL) and Matt Pushard (15-day IL).

The Miami Marlins' best offensive player from the previous year (Kyle Stowers) and top overall prospect (Thomas White) were both sidelined for a number of weeks to begin the 2026 season. Throughout the franchise's history, I figured that there were many examples of guys who overcame season-opening injured list stints to post extraordinary numbers. Not so much, as it turns out. Barring any additional injuries, Stowers and White could soon find themselves on this list. Honorable mentions For those who do not know the backstory, the man seated in this photo is Marlins fan Andres Salgado. When José Fernández underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2014, Salgado vowed to grow out his hair until the star right-hander completed his comeback. On July 1, 2015, the day before Fernández's return to the mound, Salgado was invited to Marlins Park where Fernández helped him celebrate the milestone. Fernández performed close to his usual standards after being reinstated from the IL with a 2.92 ERA (131 ERA+) and 2.24 FIP, but the 11-start sample was just too small. Edward Cabrera in 2022 (14 GS) and Henderson Alvarez in 2013 (17 GS) also fall into this category. I wanted to touch on Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s 2022 All-Star campaign as well. He played—and homered—for the Marlins on Opening Day, but did so while having a torn right meniscus. He suffered the injury in spring training and kept it private until a separate lower back issue ended his season prematurely. The Marlins have not always been fully transparent about these things. Perhaps there are other Chisholm-like instances from an earlier era where productive players concealed or gutted through injuries all season long. 5. Dylan Floro, 2022 Initial injury: right rotator cuff tendonitis Season debut date: May 10 Season fWAR: 0.7 Upon returning to the Marlins bullpen, Dylan Floro was lit up for five runs (all earned) in two innings. But he was quietly terrific the rest of the way (2.26 ERA and 2.82 FIP in next 51.2 IP). Following the MLB trade deadline, Floro became Miami's primary closer. 4. A.J. Burnett, 2004 Initial injury: Tommy John surgery Season debut date: June 3 Season fWAR: 2.9 A.J. Burnett worked 120 innings that season with uncharacteristically good control. On August 29, he set a then-franchise record with 14 strikeouts in a game. 3. Xavier Edwards, 2024 Initial injury: left foot infection Season debut date: June 7 Season fWAR: 2.2 Because the Marlins were being overly patient with veteran shortstop Tim Anderson, Xavier Edwards had to wait until July 2 before the window opened for him to play regularly. He excelled on the offensive side of the ball, slashing .328/.397/.423 with 31 stolen bases in 70 games. It nearly took another full year for the Marlins to accept that Edwards was best utilized as a second baseman. 2. Edward Cabrera, 2025 Initial injury: right middle finger blister Season debut date: April 11 Season fWAR: 2.0 For the third time in a four-season span, Edward Cabrera suffered a physical setback during spring training. The Marlins were thin enough on starting pitching that they were willing to endure a 7.23 ERA from Cabrera through the month of April. He rewarded them by turning into the top arm in the club's rotation from May onward. The Marlins sold high on Cabrera during the ensuing offseason, trading the right-hander to the Chicago Cubs for a prospect package. 1. J.T. Realmuto, 2018 Initial injury: lower back contusion Season debut date: April 17 Season fWAR: 4.7 J.T. Realmuto earned the first of his three career All-Star selections. He caught 38.2% of runners who attempted to steal—that mark won't be matched by a Marlin for the foreseeable future given the sport's recent rule changes making stolen bases more difficult to defend. Realmuto finished with 4.7 fWAR. With the exception of Iván Rodríguez's 2003 performance, this is arguably the best season by any Marlins catcher.

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) Here is a reminder of what the 2025 season leaderboard looked like. FOF SuperSubs Parker Heyser and Robert Hanson currently sit atop the 2026 leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Janson Junk (MIA) vs. TBD (MIL) on Friday RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff (MIL) on Saturday RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) on Sunday The Marlins rank 11th in MLB with a 104 wRC+ and 14th in MLB with a 4.05 FIP. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have a 7-3 record at home this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Maximo Acosta (10-day IL), Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), Adam Mazur (60-day IL), Christopher Morel (10-day IL), Esteury Ruiz (10-day IL) and Kyle Stowers (10-day IL). The Brewers rank 10th in MLB with a 105 wRC+ and 15th in MLB with a 4.06 FIP. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a 3-3 record on the road this season. The following Brewers players are on the injured list: Akil Baddoo (60-day IL), Jackson Chourio (10-day IL), Jared Koenig (15-day IL), Quinn Priester (15-day IL), Andrew Vaughn (10-day IL), Christian Yelich (10-day IL), Craig Yoho (15-day IL) and Rob Zastryzny (60-day IL).

Although it does not directly impact this current Miami Marlins season, we have arrived at a significant milestone on the calendar as it pertains to long-term roster management. Players who were optioned to the minor leagues prior to the start of the MLB regular season and haven't been recalled since have spent 20 days down there, which causes them to lose one of their options. With occasional exceptions for those who miss substantial time due to injuries, a player has three option years. Those options are what allow them to be sent to the minors without being subjected to waivers. Only one option is used per season, regardless of how often a player gets shuttled back and forth between Miami and Triple-A Jacksonville. Out-of-options players must be designated for assignment—which removes them from the 40-man roster—and passed through outright waivers before being eligible to be sent down. Beginning in 2027, Marlins right-hander Bradley Blalock and left-hander Braxton Garrett will be out of options. Both working as starters for the Jumbo Shrimp, Blalock (1.93 ERA and 5.19 FIP in 14.0 IP) and Garrett (0.59 ERA and 2.75 FIP in 15.1 IP) are performing well this season. Garrett in particular is extremely likely to make starts for the Marlins in 2026 as rotation openings inevitably present themselves. Elsewhere on the 40-man, left-handers Dax Fulton and Cade Gibson and infielder Jared Serna have used up their second options. Right-hander Ryan Gusto is three days away from joining them. The discrepancy is due to the stint he had on the active roster filling in for Marlins closer Pete Fairbanks while Fairbanks was on the paternity list. Catcher Joe Mack and right-handers William Kempner and Josh White were just selected to the 40-man this past offseason, so they've only used their first options. With outfielder Kyle Stowers eyeing a reinstatement from the injured list next week, the Marlins must make a corresponding roster move involving another position player. This is a scenario where options become important. At first glance, struggling bench bats Austin Slater and Leo Jiménez may seem like prime candidates to get sent down, but they're both out of options. Are the Marlins willing to DFA Slater or Jiménez and risk losing them for nothing, or would they rather play it safe by optioning the likes of Deyvison De Los Santos or Heriberto Hernández? In my experience covering this front office, the conservative, latter choice is far more likely.

The Miami Marlins have played solid ball early in the 2026 season, as reflected in their 9-8 record and positive run differential. But it hasn't consistently felt that way. During each of their first two visits to northern cities, the quality of their play has eroded in all facets, from hitting and pitching to baserunning and fielding to simple decision-making. Coincidence, or is there something to be said for Floridians being adversely affected when they encounter a climate dramatically different from their own? How have the Marlins performed historically when playing in cold conditions? Here's what I found. For starters, we have to establish what qualifies as "cold weather" for the Marlins. The baseline temperature at loanDepot park with the roof closed is 72 degrees Fahrenheit. Stathead allows users to search for games based on their first-pitch temperature, so I ran a query of all games in franchise history that were at least 15 degrees colder than the LDP standard (57°F or lower). That produced a sample of 185 games, including at least one from every Marlins season with the exception of 2020, when COVID delayed Opening Day until the summer. When playing ball at <57°F, the Fish have an all-time record of 78-107 (.422 winning percentage). They've gone 1-3 in the cold so far in 2026, playing two such games apiece against the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers. Using first-pitch temperature is not perfect. What about when it's slightly above 57° as a night game gets underway, but the majority of the game (including its highest-leverage moments) take place under "cold" conditions? Stathead found an additional 44 Marlins night games between 58°-60°—their record was 19-25 (a comparable .431 W-L%). For context, the Marlins have an all-time .461 W-L% overall, which is a 75-win pace over a typical 162-game season. When it's cold (based on my original parameters), they perform at a 68-win pace. Is that statistically significant? I don't think so. The gap would be smaller if we counted cold postseason games. The Marlins are 6-2 in those, with one of those victories being the 2003 World Series clincher. But the biggest variable to adjust for is location. Every cold game in Marlins history has been a road game. The franchise's road winning percentage (.421 W-L%) is practically identical to its cold winning percentage. The Marlins could potentially be battling cold conditions again on their next road trip, which begins with three games at San Francisco's Oracle Park (April 24-26). The following trip includes a visit to Target Field in Minneapolis (May 12-14).

Recent history tells us that the Miami Marlins are difficult to predict, but that won't stop us from trying. Welcome to a new season of Prediction Time. Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring the prognostications from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) Here is a reminder of what the 2025 season leaderboard looked like. FOF SuperSubs Parker Heyser and Robert Hanson currently sit atop the 2026 leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) on Monday RHP Max Meyer (MIA) vs. RHP Reynaldo López (DET) on Tuesday RHP Chris Paddack (MIA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) on Wednesday The Marlins rank 10th in MLB with a 103 wRC+ and 17th in MLB with a 4.07 FIP. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have a 1-5 record on the road this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Maximo Acosta (10-day IL), Griffin Conine (10-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), Adam Mazur (60-day IL), Christopher Morel (10-day IL), Esteury Ruiz (10-day IL) and Kyle Stowers (10-day IL). The Braves rank third in MLB with a 123 wRC+ and sixth in MLB with a 3.58 FIP. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have a 6-3 record at home this season. The following Braves players are on the injured list: Joe Jiménez (60-day IL), Ha-Seong Kim (10-day IL), Sean Murphy (10-day IL), Spencer Schwellenbach (60-day IL), AJ Smith-Shawver (60-day IL), Spencer Strider (15-day IL), Hurston Waldrep (15-day IL) and Joey Wentz (60-day IL).