Ely Sussman

The last time that the Miami Marlins extended the contract of any player, Joe Mack was a teenager hitting .132 in his professional baseball career. In other words, it's been a minute. The drought has entertainment value, as you can stump your friends with the fun fact that soft-tossing reliever Richard Bleier was their most recently extension recipient in March 2022. Otherwise, it's just confounding and frustrating. Extensions, particularly for players very early in their careers, are vital for any low-revenue club aspiring to contend for championships. These front offices need to lock up impact talent at below-market rates, and that's only possible if they proactively make long-term commitments to players before they fully establish themselves on the field. The Marlins genuinely engaged in extension talks with multiple players last year, Fish On First has reported, but nothing materialized. More recently, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com shared last week that Miami has had internal discussions about extending Mack. I viewed Mack as a prime candidate to end the extension drought before debuting. The title of this piece is referencing my 2025-26 offseason blueprint, which featured a six-year, $31 million extension with three club options for the promising catcher. Those contract terms would be laughable now. Mack has slashed .245/.299/.449 through 67 games with 11 home runs and a 103 wRC+. He's been great at pitch framing and blocking while leading the sport in runners caught stealing during that span. He has generated 1.9 fWAR, which is already a Marlins single-season record for a catcher in the post-J.T. Realmuto era. Trading Liam Hicks to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday spoke volumes about the Marlins' confidence in Mack. They have no quality depth left behind the plate should Mack's production crater. They are trusting that the 23-year-old's combination of defense and power give him a high floor moving forward. Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix referred to Mack as a "budding superstar" during Tuesday's virtual press conference. Long extensions are less common for catchers than they are for players at other positions. That's because a different aging curve applies to them. Mack, for example, is under the Marlins' control for the rest of his 20s via arbitration. Each of the top 15(!) MLB catchers this season as ranked by fWAR are under 30. Even looking back at other recent seasons, we have rarely seen a catcher over 31 exceeding league-average value as their workloads get reduced and they receive a larger percentage of playing time at DH or first base. It would nonetheless be helpful to have cost certainty with Mack, who projects to be eligible for his first arbitration raise in 2029 as a Super Two player and go through the process four total times (instead of the usual three). Also, he theoretically could age more gracefully than most of his peers thanks to his all-around athleticism. As a very conservative starting point for Mack, Keibert Ruiz extended with the Washington Nationals for eight years and $50 million guaranteed in 2023 when he was a year older than Mack is now. Ruiz had a partial season of extra MLB service time with more perceived offensive upside, but far more volatility with his defense. Samuel Basallo (8-YR/$67M) is another relevant comp. The Baltimore Orioles inked him to what was really a pre-debut extension, though it was officially announced following his call-up. Basallo was only 21 years old at the time and there was consensus across the industry that he had the tools to be an elite hitter. I believe Mack has the leverage to raise the bar even higher. He has provided just as much offense as Basallo in 2026 and it's no contest between them on the other side of the ball. That offsets their age difference. My projection for a Mack contract extension is eight years, $70 million with the following annual breakdown: $2.5M in 2027 $2.5M in 2028 $5M in 2029 $8M in 2030 $11M in 2031 $11M in 2032 $14M in 2033 $14M in 2034 $14M club option in 2035 ($2M buyout) If the club option is exercised, Mack would not reach free agency until age 33. That is the trade-off for setting a pre-arb catcher record for guaranteed money. The window to efficiently sign Mack could close quickly. With no extensions on Peter Bendix's record yet, I'll remain skeptical of this getting done until proven otherwise.

Fish On First has created this landing page to be frequently updated throughout the year with the latest on injuries affecting Miami Marlins players in both the majors and minors. Major league injuries RHP Anthony Bender (15-day IL, right shin stress reaction) Last official game appearance: June 27 Throwing up to 75 feet as of July 22 Expected to return this season, according to Peter Bendix RHP Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL, right UCL reconstruction with internal brace procedure) Last official game appearance: September 28, 2025 Throwing from 60 feet as of July 17 Projected to miss entire 2026 season RHP William Kempner (15-day IL, right elbow sprain) Last official game appearance: July 11 Shut down from throwing as of July 17 RHP Adam Mazur (60-day IL, right UCL reconstruction surgery) Last official game appearance: March 2 Underwent surgery on March 11 Recovery timeline of 13-14 months Will miss remainder of 2026 season RHP Max Meyer (15-day IL, neck strain) Last official game appearance: July 18 Visited neck specialist in Los Angeles on July 20 Shut down from throwing for the next two weeks as of July 24, then will be re-evaluated Expected to return this season, according to Peter Bendix LHP Andrew Nardi (60-day IL, left rib cage stress reaction) Last official game appearance: May 27 Continuing throwing progression as of July 17 Projected return to Marlins active roster: September LHP Robby Snelling (60-day IL, left UCL repair surgery with internal brace) Last official game appearance: May 8 Underwent surgery on May 23 (performed by Dr. Keith Meister) Recovery timeline of 10-12 months Will miss remainder of 2026 season Minor league injuries Players are listed in alphabetical order INF Aiva Arquette (7-day IL, left thumb) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: June 26 1B Chris Arroyo (60-day IL, torn left meniscus) Assigned to Low-A Jupiter Last official game appearance: April 3 Will miss remainder of 2026 season LHP RJ Shunck (60-day IL) Assigned to Low-A Jupiter Last official game appearance: April 14 Eligible to be reinstated on June 14 RHP Tristan Stevens (60-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: April 17, 2025 RHP Jesús Tinoco (full-season IL, right UCL reconstruction surgery) Assigned to Triple-A Jacksonville Last official game appearance: June 2, 2025 Underwent surgery in September 2025 Began throwing program on March 9 OF Fenwick Trimble (7-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: July 17 RHP Samuel Vásquez (60-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: April 16 RHP Logan Whitaker (7-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: May 17 LHP Thomas White (7-day IL, left shoulder capsular sprain) Assigned to Triple-A Jacksonville Last official game appearance: May 14 Recovery timeline of 12-16 weeks RHP Alex Williams (7-day IL) Assigned to Double-A Pensacola Last official game appearance: July 25 LHP Kaiden Wilson (full-season IL) Assigned to FCL Marlins Last official game appearance: August 19, 2025

Fish On First staffers discuss all angles of an active trade deadline day for the Marlins. Monday's special livestream was hosted by Ely Sussman and featured panelists Isaac Azout, Kevin Barral, Nate Karzmer, Jeremiah Geiger, Sean Millerick and Alex Carver. You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Here's a summary of Miami's deadline day player movement: Traded for Victor Vodnik (Rockies), Brandan Bidois (Pirates), Jonathon Long (Cubs), Brayden Taylor (Rays), Adrian Santana (Rays), Jace Beck (Cubs), Jacob Kisting (Rays), Hyun Seung Lee (Pirates), Brian Sánchez (Pirates) and cash considerations (Orioles) Traded away Liam Hicks (Rays), Lake Bachar (Pirates), Connor Norby (Rockies), Braxton Garrett (Cubs), Aiden May (Rockies) and Rece Hinds (Orioles)

Although the Miami Marlins are "not especially motivated to move him," they continue to listen on 2025 All-Star Kyle Stowers as of early Monday afternoon, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The Houston Astros remain the only specific suitor who's been identified. Stowers' overall slash line of .234/.319/.459 in 2026 is almost precisely in line with his career average, though he has gradually improved at the plate as this year has progressed. He has extreme platoon splits with 15 home runs and a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching compared to only one homer and a 39 wRC+ against lefties. Exclusively an outfielder during his first two seasons with the Marlins organization, he has gradually become their everyday first baseman this summer. The AL West-leading Astros, who have Christian Walker installed at first base, would presumably utilize Stowers in the corner outfield spots if they acquired him. The Marlins have a surplus of left-handed bats for the foreseeable future, especially when accounting for outfield prospects Cam Cannarella and Brandon Compton who've been dominating the upper minors. However, none of them have a major league season on their résumé that measures up to what Stowers did last season (4.0 fWAR in 117 G). Also, the 28-year-old is under club control through 2029, giving the Marlins plenty of leverage in negotiations. Both of these teams are playing high-quality ball as of late, combining to go 12-1 in their games last week. I'd be shocked if Stowers gets dealt today, but stay tuned...

Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring Miami Marlins predictions from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) FOF staffer Jeremiah Geiger is currently atop the 2026 season leaderboard, which will be updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. Series preview notes Probable starting pitchers: RHP Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs. RHP Grant Holmes on Tuesday RHP Eury Pérez (MIA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) on Wednesday TBA (MIA) vs. LHP Martin Pérez (ATL) on Thursday RHP Janson Junk's rotation spot The Marlins rank 15th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ and 11th in MLB with a 3.99 FIP. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have a 24-32 record on the road this season. The following Marlins players are on the injured list: Anthony Bender (15-day IL), Ronny Henriquez (60-day IL), William Kempner (15-day IL), Adam Mazur (60-day IL), Andrew Nardi (60-day IL) and Robby Snelling (60-day IL). The Braves rank 16th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ and 15th in MLB with a 4.14 FIP. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a 36-20 record at home this season. The following Braves players are on the injured list: Joe Jiménez (60-day IL), Ha-Seong Kim (10-day IL), Reynaldo López (15-day IL) Sean Murphy (60-day IL), Spencer Schwellenbach (60-day IL), Spencer Strider (60-day IL), Robert Suarez (15-day IL) and Joey Wentz (60-day IL).

Prior to the start of each new Miami Marlins series, we invite the Fish On First staff, FOF LIVE guests and SuperSubs to participate in Prediction Time. Results for the 2026 season will be tracked here. This is how the scoring system works: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) That's a maximum of three points per series. Rank Name Total Prediction Points Series Winner Points Series MVP Points 1 Jeremiah Geiger 47 40 7 2 David Fernandez 45 36 9 3 TenofSpades BK 42 36 6 4 Baby Seal 40 33 7 5 Sportsman38 39 33 6 6 Robert Hanson 37 31 6 7 Daniel Rodriguez 36 34 2 8 Hector Rodriguez 36 35 1 9 Chad Turner 36 30 6 10 Sean Millerick 35 30 5 11 Hans Herrera 33 29 4 12 Kevin Barral 33 29 4 13 Bassmaster4 31 28 3 14 2qbn 30 28 2 15 Ely Sussman 30 25 5 16 Stevo 30 28 2 17 Nate Karzmer 28 24 4 18 JustMyFandom 25 22 3 19 Richard 25 22 3 20 1993 fan from start 24 22 2 21 Sean McCormack 22 19 3 22 Gabriel Revilla 22 19 3 23 Saul Goodman 22 21 1 24 M.J.S 22 20 2 25 MRDHU75 21 20 1 26 rings 21 20 1 27 Alex Carver 21 19 2 28 Shawn 21 19 2 29 Loud Miami Fan 20 18 2 30 Jose Herrera 17 17 0 31 HAMPTIME 17 14 3 32 JustMarlins 15 12 3 33 Michael Cronin 13 12 1 34 David Slaton 12 11 1 35 Louis Addeo-Weiss 11 10 1 36 Burr 10 9 1 37 Ryan Schlesinger 7 7 0 38 Alex Krutchik 7 6 1 39 Thomas Joseph 7 7 0 40 Casey Marika 6 5 1 41 Isaac Azout 6 6 0 42 Slacker Mills 5 4 1 43 One Regend 5 5 0 44 Rob V 4 4 0 45 njp 2 2 0 46 Cartern 2 2 0 47 MarlinszDude86 1 1 0 48 ducat2 1 1 0 49 Hippyboi 1 1 0 50 tbonemalone 1 1 0 51 ForeverMarlins 0 0 0 Last series

Fish On First staffers react to the latest Miami Marlins series and prepare you for what lies ahead. Sunday's show was hosted by Ely Sussman and featured panelist Kevin Barral. The following topics were covered: A very encouraging series win over the New York Mets Michael Petersen's incredible effort on Sunday Notable trades completed around the majors (as of early Sunday evening) Latest rumors regarding Liam Hicks, Kyle Stowers, Pete Fairbanks and Xavier Edwards Predicting the next series against the Atlanta Braves You can find Fish Unfiltered and Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our next FOF LIVE episode will be a special trade deadline countdown/reaction show, scheduled for Monday at approximately 5:00 p.m. ET.

NEW YORK — It's extremely rare, if not unprecedented, that in a game featuring a scoreless start by Sandy Alcantara, he wasn't the Miami Marlins' most valuable pitcher. On Sunday, that title belonged to Michael Petersen. The journeyman right-hander put out a blazing fire in the bottom of the seventh inning, preserving Alcantara's shutout and earning his team-leading 18th hold of the season in a 2-0 win over the New York Mets. Marlins manager Clayton McCullough called upon Petersen with runners on second and third and his club clinging to a 1-0 advantage. In that moment, the Mets had an estimated win probability of 65%, per Baseball Savant. Petersen issued a walk to Marcus Semien to load the bases, but then struck out Jorge Polanco and Francisco Alvarez, escaping the jam on an A.J. Ewing groundout. The Mets' win probability plunged to 25% after coming up empty. "Great decision by the manager out there," Alcantara said postgame. "Bring in the best guy [for] the best moment." "As he's continued to get these types of opportunities, we have seen (Petersen) really grow," McCullough said. "He's a very confident pitcher with good stuff...Not surprised that Mike is getting these type of outs for us." Petersen has performed well overall in his first year as a full-time big leaguer (3.13 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 46.0 IP), but he shines especially brightly when inheriting baserunners. Only two of the 22 runners left behind for him by fellow Marlins pitchers have come home. Petersen takes that responsibility very seriously. “There's not a worse feeling than coming in with someone else's runner in and cashing it," Petersen said. "Those guys are, in my mind, winning the World Series if they come through. My own score, I pitch like crap, that's on me. But when someone's been grinding and you come in and blow that, you feel like an *******. So I try really hard not to do that." Interestingly enough, Petersen did not make a single appearance with inherited runners until May 15. McCullough explained that the right-hander's usage changed through a combination of his own success and the losses of various relievers due to injuries, a few of whom (such as Anthony Bender and Andrew Nardi) are still on the IL. Safe to say, Petersen will remain in a prominent role as long as he continues to be a reliable out-getter. Petersen's outing was so stressful because the Marlins offense barely provided any support. They were held scoreless until Joe Mack's fifth-inning home run. Xavier Edwards drove in their only other run with an RBI single in the ninth. Alcantara is on the verge of setting yet another Marlins franchise record. By recording at least seven outs in his next start, he'll surpass Ricky Nolasco in career innings pitched (Nolasco had 1,225.2 IP). And now we wait. As Marlins players and coaches rest on Monday, front office staffers will be doing the exact opposite, discussing a wide variety of potential moves in advance of the 6:00 p.m. ET trade deadline.

As Fish On First's own Kevin Barral detailed earlier in the day, Liam Hicks is a logical trade candidate for the Miami Marlins leading up to Monday's deadline. Hicks is enjoying a strong sophomore season, slashing .283/.364/.434 and producing 1.6 fWAR through his first 100 games, but he's an awkward fit moving forward given the presence of Joe Mack as Miami's primary catcher and the organization's deep group of other left-handed hitters. The latest from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic: "As the Miami Marlins ponder trade scenarios, they are discussing catcher Liam Hicks and first baseman/outfielder Kyle Stowers more actively than shortstop Otto López and second baseman Xavier Edwards, according to league sources briefed on their conversations. The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are among the teams interested in Hicks, the person said. The New York Yankees are not involved in the talks. Hicks bats left-handed, and the Yankees want a right-handed hitting receiver. The catching position has been a vexing position for the Rays ever since they bypassed Buster Posey with the top pick of the 2008 draft. The Rays, who own the best record in the American League, traded for New York Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta on Sunday, and are active on other fronts as well. The Red Sox, the hottest team in baseball, have been shopping for shortstops and catchers. Chicago White Sox general manager Chris Getz reaffirmed to reporters Sunday his desire to add a catcher in the wake of losing Kyle Teel to a left high ankle sprain, but a source said his team is not in the mix." The Athletic's reporting on Stowers is more vague, speculating about the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cleveland Guardians as fits due to their lack of production at first base. FOF's Isaac Azout confirms that "multiple conversations" are ongoing regarding Hicks.

NEW YORK — Throughout the 2026 season, there has always been something missing from the Miami Marlins offense. It took until the game No. 112 for the stars to align. Shortly before the start of Saturday's contest, Owen Caissie returned from a right calf strain. With that, every hitter on the Marlins 40-man roster is now simultaneously healthy for the first time this year. Caissie didn't start on Saturday as Miami was matched up with left-hander Zac Thornton. He didn't even play—with the Marlins leading the New York Mets from wire to wire, his pinch-hitting services were not required. Thornton labored through arguably the worst start of his young MLB career. He allowed 10 baserunners while lasting 4 ⅔ innings. A Francisco Lindor fielding error helped the Marlins manufacture a 1-0 lead in the top of the first. They tacked on two more runs in the following inning when Javier Sanoja took Thornton deep to left field. In the lineup against a lefty for only the third time this season, Griffin Conine singled off Thornton in the top of the fourth. That pushed Esteury Ruiz to third base, where he scored on Otto Lopez's sacrifice fly. Conine's louder contribution came in his next plate appearance when he connected on a towering solo shot against reliever Daniel Duarte. Conine raised his season wRC+ to 153 (with 100 representing league average), putting him on pace for the best single-season mark by any lefty batter in Marlins history. "He's performed...He has done nothing but hit and put together at-bats," manager Clayton McCullough said of Conine postgame. Liam Hicks had a pair of RBI singles. That snapped his season-high 10-game drought without driving in a run. The weakest link in Miami's lineup on Saturday was Xavier Edwards. The switch-hitting second baseman went 0-for-5 and twice stranded the bases loaded. Overall, the Marlins compiled 10 hits and five walks. They are 10-1 this season when reaching both of those marks in the same contest. Tyler Phillips (5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) did a great job of attacking the bottom of the strike zone. Tyrone Taylor ripped a sinker for a two-run homer in the second inning, but even that pitch was well-located. Keeping the ball down was crucial to inducing a 55.6% ground ball rate on the day. For the first time since June 28, Phillips had the opportunity to pitch into the sixth inning. McCullough promptly called to his bullpen after Bo Bichette recorded a leadoff single, though. The 6-2 victory was the Marlins' fifth in their last six games. That hot streak coinciding with a Philadelphia Phillies skid leaves just one game between them in the race for the National League's third wild-card spot. The four-game series between the Marlins and Mets concludes Sunday afternoon. Sandy Alcantara starts for the road team, having historically fared very well at Citi Field (2.70 ERA in nine career outings). First pitch by New York's still-to-be-announced starter is scheduled for 1:40 p.m.

We know that the Miami Marlins are open-minded to doing almost anything prior to Monday's MLB trade deadline, but anticipating specific moves is especially difficult this year. History teaches us that the vast majority of big leaguers who switch teams in deadline deals are either pending free agents or a year away from free agent eligibility, and the Marlins have very few of those. Pete Fairbanks was supposed to be their obvious trade candidate under these circumstances. Outside of a minimum-length injured list stint in late April/early May, the veteran closer has been available, throwing gas...and perplexingly bad. He owned a 6.83 ERA and 5.17 FIP entering the All-Star break, having already matched a single-season career-high with seven home runs allowed. The break did him no favors as Fairbanks had another dispiriting performance in Milwaukee on July 19, blowing a 2-0 lead and extending the club's losing streak to six games at the time. No save situations presented themselves over the next week, so Fairbanks wasn't utilized again until July 26. Since then, he has been flawless—four appearances, 12 batters faced, 12 batters retired. It is the longest streak of perfection that we've seen from the 32-year-old during his Marlins tenure. It took only seven pitches for him to secure Friday's victory against the New York Mets, marking his most efficient inning of the season. There haven't been notable changes to Fairbanks' velocity or pitch mix in this microscopic sample. He is still heavily reliant on fly balls (Friday's final out would have cleared the fence of 15 MLB ballparks, according to Statcast). He is constantly getting ahead in the count, but that has quietly been a strength of his throughout 2026 with a personal-best 66.9% first-pitch strike rate. The trade deadline is ultimately a supply-and-demand equation. Working in the Marlins' favor, the vast majority of established closers around the league are on contending teams that have no interest in moving them. Over the last three seasons, Fairbanks ranks 14th in MLB with 65 saves. The only name above him on that leaderboard who is both healthy and presumed to be available is Kenley Jansen of the Detroit Tigers. Jansen is six years older than Fairbanks and continuing to struggle with his control (15.7 BB% compared to Fairbanks' 9.3 BB%). Fairbanks is owed about $4 million through the end of the regular season, though the Marlins won't be motivated to move him simply to cut costs when they already have MLB's lowest payroll. They will be weighing whether the upside of the young players being offered in exchange for him outweighs the production he'd provide in August and September during their pursuit of a postseason berth.