Revisiting what a Joe Mack contract extension could look like

The last time that the Miami Marlins extended the contract of any player, Joe Mack was a teenager hitting .132 in his professional baseball career. In other words, it's been a minute.

The drought has entertainment value, as you can stump your friends with the fun fact that soft-tossing reliever Richard Bleier was their most recently extension recipient in March 2022. Otherwise, it's just confounding and frustrating.

Extensions, particularly for players very early in their careers, are vital for any low-revenue club aspiring to contend for championships. These front offices need to lock up impact talent at below-market rates, and that's only possible if they proactively make long-term commitments to players before they fully establish themselves on the field.

The Marlins genuinely engaged in extension talks with multiple players last year, Fish On First has reported, but nothing materialized. More recently, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com shared last week that Miami has had internal discussions about extending Mack.

I viewed Mack as a prime candidate to end the extension drought before debuting. The title of this piece is referencing my 2025-26 offseason blueprint, which featured a six-year, $31 million extension with three club options for the promising catcher.

Those contract terms would be laughable now. Mack has slashed .245/.299/.449 through 67 games with 11 home runs and a 103 wRC+. He's been great at pitch framing and blocking while leading the sport in runners caught stealing during that span. He has generated 1.9 fWAR, which is already a Marlins single-season record for a catcher in the post-J.T. Realmuto era.

Trading Liam Hicks to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday spoke volumes about the Marlins' confidence in Mack. They have no quality depth left behind the plate should Mack's production crater. They are trusting that the 23-year-old's combination of defense and power give him a high floor moving forward. Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix referred to Mack as a "budding superstar" during Tuesday's virtual press conference.

Long extensions are less common for catchers than they are for players at other positions. That's because a different aging curve applies to them. Mack, for example, is under the Marlins' control for the rest of his 20s via arbitration. Each of the top 15(!) MLB catchers this season as ranked by fWAR are under 30. Even looking back at other recent seasons, we have rarely seen a catcher over 31 exceeding league-average value as their workloads get reduced and they receive a larger percentage of playing time at DH or first base.

It would nonetheless be helpful to have cost certainty with Mack, who projects to be eligible for his first arbitration raise in 2029 as a Super Two player and go through the process four total times (instead of the usual three). Also, he theoretically could age more gracefully than most of his peers thanks to his all-around athleticism.

As a very conservative starting point for Mack, Keibert Ruiz extended with the Washington Nationals for eight years and $50 million guaranteed in 2023 when he was a year older than Mack is now. Ruiz had a partial season of extra MLB service time with more perceived offensive upside, but far more volatility with his defense.

Samuel Basallo (8-YR/$67M) is another relevant comp. The Baltimore Orioles inked him to what was really a pre-debut extension, though it was officially announced following his call-up. Basallo was only 21 years old at the time and there was consensus across the industry that he had the tools to be an elite hitter.

I believe Mack has the leverage to raise the bar even higher. He has provided just as much offense as Basallo in 2026 and it's no contest between them on the other side of the ball. That offsets their age difference.

My projection for a Mack contract extension is eight years, $70 million with the following annual breakdown:

• $2.5M in 2027
• $2.5M in 2028
• $5M in 2029
• $8M in 2030
• $11M in 2031
• $11M in 2032
• $14M in 2033
• $14M in 2034
• $14M club option in 2035 ($2M buyout)

If the club option is exercised, Mack would not reach free agency until age 33. That is the trade-off for setting a pre-arb catcher record for guaranteed money.

The window to efficiently sign Mack could close quickly. With no extensions on Peter Bendix's record yet, I'll remain skeptical of this getting done until proven otherwise.