Should Marlins rethink first base plans after Deyvison De Los Santos' winter ball success?

[Ely Sussman]

Too often, the evaluation of a baseball prospect fluctuates dramatically based on their most recent season. Fish On First is occasionally guilty of this, with Miami Marlins first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos being a prime example.

At this time a year ago, De Los Santos ranked third on the FOF Top 30 as Minor League Baseball's reigning home run king. Currently, fresh off a disappointing season at Triple-A, he is ranked 23rd. That's in large part because his surface-level production cratered, from 40 homers and a 127 wRC+ in 2024 to 12 homers and an 84 wRC+ in 2025.

But under the hood, nothing about De Los Santos' player profile fundamentally changed. He possesses plus-plus power—in both seasons, his 90th-percentile exit velocity was 108 mph (for reference, Agustín Ramírez is at 109 mph). His chase rate against Triple-A pitching actually improved from 45.0% to 35.0%, though that is still a concerningly high figure. It's been obvious throughout this period that first base will be his long-term defensive home. Despite shattering his previous career-high with 16 stolen bases in 2025, he remains a below-average runner by MLB standards.

De Los Santos did not do enough to earn a call-up from the Marlins last season. He also did not disqualify himself as a potential reinforcement further down the road. He's only 22 years old!

Between a quad injury and travel issues, De Los Santos had fewer MiLB reps than hoped (106 games in AAA). He is compensating for that now in the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM), where he's been starring for Gigantes del Cibao.

De Los Santos enters Monday ranked fourth among all qualified LIDOM hitters in both batting average (.351) and OPS (.892). He is in the midst of a 16-game on-base streak. Every single pitcher he's faced is older than him and more than half of his plate appearances have come against guys who have MLB experience.

It has been a mixed bag for De Los Santos from a plate discipline standpoint. He has drawn only three walks through a full month of action and he occasionally gives away strikes at times by blindly guessing in favorable counts and swinging over the top of breaking balls. On the other hand, it's encouraging to see him dial back his aggressiveness, offering at 30% of first pitches (roughly MLB average).

With few exceptions, the arms who have elite stuff and command are resting at this time of year. There's only so much that De Los Santos can "prove" about himself against this quality of competition. The correlation between LIDOM run production and big league readiness is practically non-existent, as detailed in the table below.

OPS Rank	2020-21 LIDOM Season	2021-22 LIDOM Season	2022-23 LIDOM Season	2023-24 LIDOM Season	2024-25 LIDOM Season
1	Ronald Guzmán	Junior Lake	Henry Urrutia	Ronny Simón	J.C. Escarra
2	Joe Dunand	Leody Taveras	Ronny Mauricio	Franmil Reyes	Aderlin Rodríguez
3	Yamaico Navarro	Hanser Alberto	Aneury Tavárez	Mel Rojas Jr.	Jerar Encarnación
4	Junior Lake	Sócrates Brito	Ramón Hernández	Héctor Rodríguez	Sergio Alcántara
5	Jeremy Peña	Zoilo Almonte	Rainer Nuñez	Starlin Castro	Erick Mejía
	Total MLB fWAR in 2021	Total MLB fWAR in 2022	Total MLB fWAR in 2023	Total MLB fWAR in 2024	Total MLB fWAR in 2025
	-0.2	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.5

The Marlins are exploring opportunities to acquire a veteran first baseman, but they don't feel obligated to do so if the value isn't reasonable. FOF's Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral report that they could patch things together with a combination of internal options such as Eric Wagaman, Connor Norby, Graham Pauley and Liam Hicks. Even if De Los Santos homered on a daily basis for the rest of the LIDOM season, the Marlins would still plan on sending him back down to Jacksonville to validate that he has turned a corner.

I have been pounding the drum as much as anybody for the Marlins to invest in their roster and first base was a glaring weakness for the Fish last year. That being said, they should be setting the bar very high and/or prioritizing first basemen with the flexibility to play additional positions. De Los Santos is a fascinating depth piece for 2026 who shouldn't be ignored. If the Marlins have to block his path to the majors because they've added one of MLB's best bats via trade or free agency, that'd be wonderful, but don't spend money for the sake of spending money and bury him on the depth chart behind a low-probability bounce-back candidate.

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[Hippyboi]

No reason not to give him a shot. His strikeout rate has dropped, but still no walks

[BMK3]

I agree. Do not spend money just to spend money. However, I did see that yesterday Ryan Helsley signed with Baltimore for 28M/2Yrs.  He's one of the guys I wanted.

[Jose Herrera]

Awesome article Ely! Loved that table you included.

 

[JustMarlins]

I was thinking. How does the idea of moving Heriberto Hernandez to 1B land? At the same time Norby could move to the OF. Could this be an option? I’m just trying to think outside the box on this. 

[JustMarlins]

6 hours ago, BMK3 said:

I agree. Do not spend money just to spend money. However, I did see that yesterday Ryan Helsley signed with Baltimore for 28M/2Yrs.  He's one of the guys I wanted.

Maybe focusing on extending those players we have on staff should be the focus if they can’t find the value outside of the organization. I’d love to see our guys extended. 

[JustMarlins]

7 hours ago, Hippyboi said:

No reason not to give him a shot. His strikeout rate has dropped, but still no walks

Agree. LIDOM stats mean nothing. Do it at AAA to be considered. 

[FishFan93]

At this point, we are still throwing darts at a wall. It can't hurt can it?

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Well done. 

 

[KennyOro54]

Great article Ely. If I had the chair, I'd still look for a veteran option for 1B & then watch DDLS closely in the spring, giving him the chance to win a job even if it's on the bench. If I don't feel like he'll contribute to winning at the big league level, then he's still very young & can *hopefully* develop a tad more in AAA before getting the call-up. If he does develop, man that would be a godsend for this squad next year. 

[1993 fan from start]

Would have to give that a hard no. Winter ball not spring training or Minors.   Marlins already gave their second option answer to first base. Otheir players can see playing time at First Base . If that the goal then I could see  Deyvison De Los Santos IN THE SECOND HALF IF NO ONE  take it..     Right now it sould be about power RBI's one reliver and starter pitching..  IF Marlins are not spending the money to build off of 2025 it be wrong.   

Marlins start the season with DE los . i be ok with them making two moves trading for Oneil Cruz ( depend on cost .23 double and 19 to 22 hr not bad) ,or getting Petter Fairbanks ,Luis Severino ( underrateded) , Kyle Finnegan .