The real Pete Fairbanks is hiding in plain sight

The Miami Marlins' big-ticket free agent signing from this past offseason has been one of their biggest liabilities thus far. Right-hander Pete Fairbanks inked a one-year, $13M pact in December, the most lucrative deal for any player during Peter Bendix's tenure as Marlins president of baseball operations. Fairbanks performed exactly as advertised on the club's season-opening homestand, posting goose eggs in the run column in his first three outings.

His entrance from the bullpen has been a harbinger of suffering since then. Across those last seven innings, Fairbanks has allowed 11 runs, ballooning his season ERA to 9.00. He blew a save opportunity for the second time on Saturday against his former team, the Tampa Bay Rays, though Miami's offense bailed him out in extra innings.

By win probability added, Fairbanks (-1.06 WPA) has been more detrimental to the Marlins' pursuit of relevance than any other player, even edging out the since-released Chris Paddack (-1.01 WPA).

However, Fairbanks' peripherals tell us he's no worse a pitcher than he was in 2025. So much of the 32-year-old's uncharacteristic outcomes can be explained by bad luck.

Fairbanks enters Sunday with a 3.20 FIP in 2026. That figure was 3.63 the year before and 3.50 the year before that. His career mark is 3.11. His strikeout minus walk rate is better than his overall career rate and he has surrendered only one home run, which came off the bat of early-season American League MVP candidate Ben Rice.

Fairbanks has underachieved his expected earned run average by 5.85 runs, according to Baseball Savant. That is the 15th-largest margin out of the 480 MLB pitchers to face at least 25 hitters this season, putting him in the 97th percentile of "unluckiness."

This is not comparable to the notoriously regrettable acquisition of Heath Bell 14 years earlier. Fairbanks, for the first time in his career, has a feel for three reliable putaway pitches in his four-seam fastball, slider and cutter. And he has all the motivation that he needs to get back on track with another trip through free agency looming following the 2026 campaign.

If there is one area Fairbanks ought to emphasize, it's generating more ground balls. Although that backfired on him Saturday with Nick Fortes' game-tying RBI single, grounders are far easier overall for defenses to convert into outs. He currently possesses the lowest GB% in MLB (min. 25 BF).

Expectations for Fairbanks should not be lowered despite the lowlights he has produced. With regular usage moving forward—his season has been interrupted previously by the birth of a child and a bout of nerve irritation—he's capable of resuming his usual high-caliber ways.