How will Owen Caissie cut down on his strikeouts?

[Ely Sussman]

It's still too early in the MLB season to judge a player based on their overall offensive production. We need a much larger sample size before commissioning Otto Lopez's Marlins Legends Hall of Fame plaque or dismissing Jakob Marsee as a flash in the pan.

In that vein, rookie outfielder Owen Caissie has flown under the radar ever since his opening weekend walk-off home run. That is because entering Monday, his 2026 numbers are right in line with where leading projection systems said he'd be. The 23-year-old left-handed-hitter owns a .246/.294/.426 slash line and a 96 wRC+, frequently producing hard contact...when he actually makes contact.

Some stats stabilize quicker than others, and therein lies the concern with Caissie. His strikeout rate (42.6 K%) is the highest in MLB among all hitters with comparable playing time. It won't be possible for him to have a significant long-term role with the Fish unless he improves in that area.

Prior to 2026, Caissie's only big league experience was a 12-game cup of coffee with the Chicago Cubs last summer. He remains very young for this level with all but one of the pitchers he has faced as a Marlin being older than him. On the other hand, he had nearly two full seasons at Triple-A to prepare.

Whatever caveats you want to apply to Caissie, he finds himself in an exclusive, mostly undesirable club to begin his Marlins tenure. Through his first 20 games with the franchise, he has the third-highest strikeout total (29) of any position player, according to Stathead, trailing only Alex Jackson (35) and Giancarlo Stanton (33).

Player	Span Started	Span Ended	SO	PA
Alex Jackson	2021-08-02	2021-08-26	35	66
Giancarlo Stanton	2010-06-08	2010-07-02	33	85
Owen Caissie	2026-03-27	2026-04-19	29	68
Jerar Encarnacion	2022-06-19	2022-09-12	28	70
Lewis Brinson	2018-03-29	2018-04-22	28	79
Garrett Jones	2014-03-31	2014-04-22	28	86
Avisaíl García	2022-04-08	2022-05-03	27	82
Curtis Granderson	2019-03-29	2019-04-23	27	74
Chad Wallach	2018-03-29	2019-04-11	27	67

Stanton is a historical outlier who skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to Miami and was nearly three years younger than Caissie is now. Also, an inflated K rate is more forgivable for a right-handed hitter considering that they are at a platoon disadvantage most of the time. The other names above fall into two distinct groups: those on the verge of ending their MLB careers and those who would never become competent hitters in the first place.

On the bright side, there is another comparable Marlin who was only one strikeout shy of appearing in that table himself. Kyle Stowers compiled 26 Ks in his first 20 contests upon arriving via trade; from his 21st game onward, Stowers has been elite.

If Caissie also swung-and-missed at a league-worst rate, it would be difficult to see him turning the corner, but his strikeout issue is more nuanced than that. His passive plate approach is a major factor. He has taken too many hittable pitches, swinging at just 58.2% of pitches in the strike zone (MLB average is 67.0%). As a result, 10 of his strikeouts have come on called third strikes.

As Marlins bench coach Carson Vitale elaborated on prior to Sunday's game, Caissie's improvement will hinge more on swing decisions than swing mechanics.

That being said, Caissie's current mechanics do leave him susceptible to high velocity. He has only produced four balls in play against pitches of at least 94 mph. Contrast that with teammate and fellow Canadian Liam Hicks, who has done so 16 times in a similar number of plate appearances.

Even with Stowers newly reinstated from the injured list, there is ample room for Caissie to continue starting regularly against right-handers for the foreseeable future. Let's circle back to this around Memorial Day if "Big Red" is still having a big problem with punchouts.

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Let Caissie get his sea legs. Like Caissie, Stowers concerned me because he was missing pitches in the zone. Dare we expect such a dramatic turnaround from Caissie? Yes, I think so.