Marlins officially eliminated from postseason contention

[Isaac Azout]

SAN DIEGO — Following a loss to the San Diego Padres team that they were chasing for the National League's final wild-card spot, the Miami Marlins have been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.

Miami’s series-opening loss was fittingly frustrating, as an all-too-common bullpen collapse made the difference on Friday night. Following 3 ⅔ scoreless innings from starter Tyler Phillips, manager Clayton McCullough went to his bullpen despite Phillips having thrown just 50 pitches. Relievers Cade Gibson and Tyler Zuber combined to allow six earned runs over the next inning and a third, highlighted by a gargantuan three-run home run from Ty France.

Phillips, in his third major league season, has already significantly surpassed his career high in innings.

Agustin Ramirez and Jakob Marsee provided excellent days at the plate, including Ramirez's fifth home run of the campaign. At 112.5 mph off the bat, it was the fourth-hardest hit homer of the season for Miami. 

Despite a very promising first half and several stretches of competitive ball, playoff baseball in Little Havana never felt particularly realistic. After reaching a season-high 10 games over .500 on July 9, Miami has gone 24-36, including Friday night’s demoralizing loss.

“It’s a lot to process here right now. Hearing that, knowing what was at stake, we’re really disappointed. We came into this season expecting to be one of the six National League teams to play beyond the regular season, and it’s tough knowing we won’t be able to do that,” McCullough said postgame. “As far as examining this season as a whole, I’m not quite there yet. I’m still just thinking about tomorrow and trying to win as many games as possible the rest of the way.”

 

What Went Wrong?

After Miami’s historic month of June, in which the team went 20-6, July was a nightmare for McCullough and his staff. The last time the Padres faced Miami, they swept the Marlins to extend the team’s losing streak to a franchise-record 12 games. That ill-timed stretch played a major role in the Marlins’ decision to sell at the trade deadline rather than add key pieces to an incomplete roster.

The trade of Liam Hicks appeared to hurt the lineup. Hicks was one of the few pure hitters on the roster who consistently put the ball in play and provided quality at-bats. At the time, however, the Marlins viewed themselves as dealing from an area of surplus, with a plethora of left-handed power bats throughout the organization.The Marlins saw an opportunity to sell high on a former Rule 5 pick. 

That said, the trade was quite unpopular among Marlins fans as it never hurts to have an excellent hitting catcher on the roster. Meanwhile, none of the three prospects received in exchange for Hicks have reached the majors yet.

Perhaps a larger factor was Miami’s inability to win on the road. At home, the Marlins were one of the NL’s best teams at 45-33. On the road, they slipped to 31-45 on Friday night—a nearly 200-point difference in winning percentage.

Miami’s struggles against quality opponents were another major factor. The Marlins are just 29-45 against teams at .500 or better this season, a .392 winning percentage. 

 

Rotation depth and injuries

The Marlins entered the season with arguably one of the most talented 1-2 punches in baseball in Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez. The hope was that Max Meyer, Robby Snelling and Thomas White would round out one of the deeper rotations in the game.

Instead, all three suffered season-ending injuries at various points during the season, forcing Miami to rely heavily on Tyler Phillips, Ryan Gusto and Janson Junk down the stretch.

The lack of rotation depth became increasingly problematic as the season progressed, putting additional pressure on a bullpen that was already being asked to cover significant innings. With Alcantara and Pérez carrying much of the workload, the Marlins had little margin for error whenever one of their other starters failed to work deep into games, or weren’t permitted to even when pitching well.

Injuries also plagued Miami’s bullpen, as Anthony Bender and Pete Fairbanks both missed significant time, forcing the Marlins to rely on younger arms late in the season, such as Josh Ekness, Jack Ralston and Tyler Zuber. More on their injuries later.

 

Offensive regressions from the infield

All-Star Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards formed one of the best middle-infield combinations in baseball through the All-Star break. Lopez, selected to his first career All-Star Game, posted an .874 OPS while slugging .505. Both numbers have dropped by nearly 200 points in the second half.

Edwards posted an .810 OPS with a 126 OPS+, putting himself in legitimate All-Star contention as well. His injury-riddled second half has been particularly damaging, as his post-break OPS sits at just .566 following Friday’s loss.

Miami’s offense depended heavily on those two and Hicks. Overall, the team’s OPS has dropped nearly 50 points in the second half. 

 

Bright spots

The Marlins saw Sandy Alcantara significantly boost his production following an uneven 2025 season. Leading the NL in innings, Alcantara has eclipsed the 200-inning mark for the third time in his career and the first since 2022, his Cy Young-winning season. He has made all 32 starts and posted a 3.84 ERA, 1.5 runs better than the year before.

A former minor league free-agent signing, outfielder Heriberto Hernandez has emerged as a true everyday player. Since being recalled from Triple-A on May 7, Hernandez has posted an .819 OPS with a team-leading 24 home runs and a .500 slugging percentage. At times, he was Miami's only reliable source of right-handed power.

Additionally, the positive development of Joe Mack, Griffin Conine and Javier Sanoja should give the Marlins plenty of hope, as they appear to have solidified a core to build around this offseason.

That said, the 2026 season will be chalked up as a disappointment. After remaining in the postseason hunt until the final four days of the regular season in 2025, expectations were raised this year. Given that Miami was 10 games over .500 in early July and sitting comfortably in the second NL Wild Card spot, tonight’s outcome should be a tough pill for the Marlins’ brass to swallow.

They can still match last year’s win total with three more wins over their next eight games and potentially finish at .500 with a 5-3 finish. Regardless of how they finish, this two-year stretch is the most successful for the franchise in terms of wins since the 2009-10 seasons. Nevertheless, expectations will be significantly higher for Peter Bendix in 2027, whenever that should take place.

 

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High-leverage relievers to undergo surgery

Prior to Friday night’s series opener, the Marlins announced that Anthony Bender and Pete Fairbanks will each undergo surgeries.

Fairbanks, a pending free agent, is going under the knife to address thoracic outlet syndrome. The 32-year-old has had three injured list stints this year related to nerve issues, with the most recent coming last Tuesday, when he was pulled one batter into a save opportunity in Arizona.

“Feel bad for Pete with the way he finished up this year. He tried to come back, but something obviously wasn’t right. I guess the good thing is now hopefully he found a way for him to put this behind him, to get healthy and get through this,” McCullough said pregame.

As for Bender, he will undergo surgery Wednesday to address the stress reaction in his shin. The Marlins’ back-end reliever has not pitched since June 27.

“Anthony, he’s been grinding through this now for a couple of seasons, tried to give it rest, tried to come back and gave it a good go for most of the year, but it got to the point where he was having too much trouble. We’re all encouraged that hopefully this procedure will put this behind him and allow him to go into the ’27 season fully healthy,” McCullough added.

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[2qbn]

We were riding so high in June. The starting pitching getting decimated was tough, as Isaac says, there was so much hope going into the season. It feels like they are close, but they need health luck, and Bendix signing a legit bat, to possibly pull off a WC spot. 

 

Finish strong. Go Fish!

[Hippyboi]

All year long Marlins seem to over manage the L/R match ups. Philipps doesn't allow a run for 3 - 2/3s and is pulled after 59 pitches for Gibson. The inconsistent stretching out of Philipps and Gusto has been an issue for me all year. 

I still have nightmares watching Jimenez come in as a platoon hitter

I think a set place in the batting  order is better than the constant rotation

Not sure why Stowers plays on a bum leg when the season is over

 

[FishFan93]

This game was pitching management incompetence and yet another game we lost gambling on stats rather than seeing the game playout.

 

Sucks this has happened and we may end up with the record we had last season with no improvement.

 

Only can hope all our pitchers who had surgery will come back with no issues in 2028 and our farm system after an extra year in minors (and my belief on why Bendix didn't call up certain players yet). Comes back to supplement any holes we have.....

 

What am I saying we'll just sell fan favorites again for prospects who don't pan out. I don't believe Bendix at all when he said he wants to create a sustained winning environment for his reasoning of not acquiring at the deadline.

 

We better be extending Sandy too. I swear to god man

[One Regend]

My biggest disappointment for this team is how much they were underachcieving the entire year. Especially Eury Perez, who the team was relying on as an anchor. His production through May was some of the worst pitching I've seen from him. And we all know Eury Perez is better than that. I was expecting regression to the mean for Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards after their insane statlines through the all-star break but in no way was I expecting literally .500 OPS in the second half.

But perhaps, to me, what sank the entire season for the Marlins was their offseason trade that traded Ryan Weathers away. It felt so unnecessary. I don't care how good Brendan Jones and Dillon Lewis are as prospects, they aren't throwing 95+ pitches and 5-6 innings every 5 days while putting up respectable run-preventing metrics. They also weren't anywhere close to contributing to the major league club this year. If they had Ryan Weathers, I'd guarantee you the Marlins would have won at least 5 more games, if not more. Tyler Phillips would be in the bullpen, where he was thriving, and the bullpen would be so much better. I'd argue the Edward Cabrera trade too, but at least that trade made sense, since Cabrera had a volatile history and Owen Caissie has legit 30-HR potential if he isn't striking out in 37% of his plate appearances.

Furthermore, if they won 5+ more games by Ryan Weathers simply existing, they wouldn't have dealt away Lake Bachar, and Liam Hicks would still be on the team. That unnecessary trade created an ugly butterfly effect that affected the entire season.

Also, why is Kyle Stowers still playing? Why risk his already injured hamstring on games that were next-to-meaningless? Shut him down for the season and bring up Kemp Alderman (who, mind you, is putting up comparable numbers in AAA and is also playing the same positions) so we don't lose him to Rule 5.