MLB trade deadline: Should Marlins sell high on hot-hitting Heriberto Hernández?

[Ely Sussman]

You cannot ascribe a baseball team's success or failure to any individual player. Take Heriberto Hernández, for example. The Miami Marlins outfielder is playing the best ball of his major league career right now and his reps have gone up accordingly.

Over the last 10 games in particular, Hernández has played every single inning while slashing .325/.357/.600. The Marlins have lost all 10 of those games.

This agonizing streak has complicated the Marlins' trade deadline approach. The team has malfunctioned in so many areas simultaneously that it's difficult to foresee them behaving as traditional buyers—there aren't enough quality players on the market to address everything.

During these turbulent times, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix may lean into his mantra of simply extracting good value whenever it's available. In that case, Bendix ought to be listening carefully on Hernández.

Less than two years ago, the Marlins signed Hernández as a minor league free agent. Less than three months ago, Hernández was demoted to Triple-A Jacksonville due to awful offensive performance. This is a very volatile asset.

The upcoming deadline appears to be Miami's opportunity to sell high on the 26-year-old. Bert's hot streak far predates the losing streak—it goes all the way back to when he was recalled from Jacksonville on May 7. He owns a 148 wRC+ since then, which leads the Marlins and ranks 18th across MLB among players with at least 150 plate appearances.

Even that understates Hernández's appeal, because most of the 17 names ahead of him are completely untouchable (Yordan Alvarez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Nick Kurtz, etc.). For teams seeking an immediate boost to their run production against left-handed pitching, Hernández ought to be near the top of their wish list.

Not even eligible for arbitration yet, Hernández's salary is just a hair above the MLB minimum. He is potentially under club control all the way through the 2031 season. But as mentioned above, he's volatile. Although his quality of contact has been terrific, he currently ranks in the ninth percentile among MLB hitters in whiff rate. There is a scenario in which pitchers around the league find a way to exploit that with his strikeout rate climbing as a result.

Whenever weighing whether or not to move on from a player, the team's front office must consider what their internal replacements are. The Marlins have some legitimately intriguing right-handed power bats at Triple-A, most notably Kemp Alderman and Agustín Ramírez. Alderman, who has just learned to play first base in addition to the corner outfield spots, has little left to prove in the minors with a .293/.361/.546 slash line and 21 home runs in 84 AAA games dating back to last year. Hernández is blocking him.

It is unusual for effective, pre-arb hitters to change teams in deadline deals. Coincidentally, the closest comp for Hernández in recent years is Jake Burger. The Marlins were on the other side of that equation, acquiring Burger from the Chicago White Sox in 2023. The cost was left-hander Jake Eder. As I revisited in this article, the Marlins won the trade. However, that shouldn't deter them from flipping the script if a borderline Top 100 MLB prospect with a plus-plus breaking ball is dangled in exchange for Hernández.

If that is not ambitious enough for you, perhaps Hernández could help the Marlins plug a gaping hole in their current starting rotation. The Seattle Mariners match up well as a potential trade partner, with a rare surplus of starters and the need for another lefty masher.

Who says no to a package of Hernández, Braxton Garrett and Brandon White (Fish On First #20 prospect) for Emerson Hancock? That would potentially allow the Marlins to thread the needle of selling high on Bert (and White) while adding enough rotation depth to stay in postseason contention.

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[1993 fan from start]

still saying no to trading , Braxton Garrett .   marlins will need two pitcher going forward.

some how I'm reminded of Jake Marisnick being traded.

right player with control for marlins.. love the idea of who you are trading.

marlins have losing record when Heriberto Hernández hits above 5th in batting odder  this year.

 

[Russell]

I like the for Emerson Hancock offer. Why stop there? Why not make it Kirby and Luke Raley for Hernandez, Cannarella and Milbrandt?

 

Like any trade, it comes down to what are you getting in return. If the Marlins give up a hot hitting Hernandez. I’d have to receive back a potential needle mover, not a low upside/leverage middle reliever. 

 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

I like the proposed deal. Even if Norby isn't a long-term keeper, the Marlins outfield crop is promising. Thumbs up to pulling off the trade.