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Posted

How aggressive the Miami Marlins choose to be at this year's MLB trade deadline remains anyone's guess. 

Of course, given the team's change of fortunes since the All-Star break, it remains a bit of an open question as to whether Miami will act as buyer or seller come deadline time. While it would have been unthinkable for the club to do something as wishy-washy as "standing pat" as recently as last week, that could well be where the smart money should be placed right about now. 

For the sake of argument, let's assume that Miami does still plan to buy. There are two factors working in their favor. 

For one, they are flush with financial flexibility. There is precisely zero concern about needing to negotiate staying below Major League Baseball's CBT threshold. Currently spending the least in the league on payroll entering a round of CBA negotiations where it would behoove them to be in the good graces of MLB and the MLBPA, the simple fact of the matter is that any money Miami spends could be viewed as an investment in their future.

Look at it as their money being greener. Look at it as a case of spending money to make money. Look at it as one of those cases where every dollar spent yields far more in future returns. Pick a cliche. Miami buying buys them twice as much in credibility as however much WAR return any moves generate. 

For another, though—and this is where Miami Marlins fans should really take heart—there's a case to be made for them actually having the easiest path to improving of any contender.  

Does this team need plenty of help? Absolutely. Would this article have been far more convincing if I had written it three sweeps ago during the Cleveland series? You betcha—blame the vacation I'm really starting to wish I was still on. 

However, it remains kinda true. The Marlins continue to boast some of the worst production at third base in the majors. Closer Pete Fairbanks sports a -1.4 WAR and a ghastly 7.42 ERA, yet most fans would still rather see him take the ball late than -0.6 WAR Calvin Faucher. They're pretty much back to only having two starting pitchers again. 

In other words, despite having multiple needs, it wouldn't take a lot to significantly move the needle for the Marlins in multiple areas.

Of course it would be nice to land Matt Chapman, Mason Miller, and/or Tarik Skubal. Granted, that would require the complete decimation of the farm system and inches of snow falling in Miami tomorrow, but there's no denying that it would be nice. Yet there's also no denying that switching from the roughly 30th-ranked to even the 25th-ranked third baseman, a late-inning reliever with a positive WAR, and a starting pitcher who could consistently last five innings would mean more to the Marlins than any other team shopping for postseason help.

More importantly, those kind of upgrades are well within the budget of a team looking to reasonably and smartly enhance the roster. Even more within their budget would be taking steps to simply improve their platoon options, perhaps pushing Leo Jiménez and/or Brian Navarreto off the roster for more reliable bats. I mentioned as much in last week's Fish On First round able, but it feels worth repeating now that trade deadline expectations might need to be tempered. It would be the least they could do, but it's hard to imagine even that minor of a move not being worth a couple wins. 

Bottom line? The Marlins have it in their power to massively upgrade their team over the next couple weeks, without breaking the prospect bank. 

All they need to do is get out of their own way...and maybe start winning a game or two again. 


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Posted

At some point you have to try and win. A couple of weeks ago I was dreaming of playoff rotation:

Skubal

Perez - talent Ace potential has shown the last few weeks

Sandy

Max Meyer - healthy & dealing

2 weeks later———
In shambles

Posted

I think a buying strategy is drawing to an inside straight. Fans might like it, but it's a slim payoff opportunity.

Regarding the goodwill of payroll increases, certainly the Marlins rightfully have little stock in that. The CBA vitriol is deep and there's no satisfying the MLBPA whatsoever when it comes to the Marlins, regardless of the reality of their financial situation. Everything to the Association is/would be "a long-overdue start." So, no need to pander to them at all. 

In addition, the CBA negotiation itself presents the redline ecosystem change opportunity. The RSN collapse is the proverbial last straw for over half the league to force a massive change. Until that certainty is present via a signed deal, the Marlins (in keeping with Millerick's theme) truly are in the rocking chair. This is because Bendix has positioned the budget so well while improving the on-field performance AND the farm system. Quite a successful triumvirate in his short tenure, bordering on remarkable.

To my mind, the 2027 season will be significantly disrupted or truncated, even to the point of an entirely lost season. When half of the league is truly up against the wall financially and fans grow weary of their teams fighting with such massive handicaps, there cannot be a rollover CBA. 

Accordingly, taking all these things and the team's fall to earth in consideration, no one should anticipate any deadline game-changers for the current season. But, I wager Bendix will still make a flurry of moves, in keeping with his disciplined incremental improvement strategy.  Something on the lines of six or seven players from the system as a whole, including 40-man roster guys like Ramírez, Garrett, and/or Hernández. 

Posted

I wrote over and over that the Marlins could benefit from a left-handed starter at the Trade Deadline, but honestly, after seeing the Marlins lose 10 games in a row, and seeing them trailing the Padres 2-1 heading into the 6th inning as I type this, the rotation isn't actually the problem. Well, it's a problem, but right now, it's problem number 3 on the team.

In all of the 10 consecutive games the Marlins have lost, and including today's game-in-progress, I have noticed a pattern. The Marlins bats have been silenced. Heriberto Hernandez is trying to carry the team but it doesnt matter if he's 4 for 4 if the rest of the team is 0-for-32. A lot of those 10 games we lost in a row were winnable if we had an actually clicking offense. We need a 3rd baseman now more than ever.

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