3 MLB comps for Marlins 14th overall pick Jacob Lombard

[Sean McCormack]

The Miami Marlins selected Jacob Lombard at 14th overall in last weekend's MLB Draft. Lombard "falling" to pick 14 was considered a shock around baseball. When he was still available to them, the Marlins pounced and selected the Miami native with a family history of baseball, Lombard's father is the bench coach of the Detroit Tigers and his brother, George, is a top prospect in the Yankees system who was also drafted in the first round out of high school. 

Jacob Lombard is a large 6'3" shortstop with big power projection, yet he's extremely fluid at the position. There are mixed opinions of his hit tool. Baseball America gives him a 45 on the 20-80 grade scale, citing his low contact rates compared to his peers on the summer circuit and tendency to chase. Meanwhile, MLB.com gives Lombard a 55 because his angles when he makes contact are strong, with a high fly ball rate, with hard-contact, and high bat speed.

Low-end outcome: Trevor Plouffe

• MLB seasons: nine
• Peak bWAR: 4.2
• Career bWAR: 7.4

The reason for Trevor Plouffe being the "low outcome" for Lombard is based on if Lombard cannot stick at shortstop, Plouffe like Lombard was drafted as a shortstop out of high school and in Triple-A moved to the hot corner. Plouffe had a solid career mostly being remembered for his power, playing nine years in the major leagues with 106 career home runs. 

 

Middle outcome: Ian Desmond

• MLB seasons: 11
• Peak bWAR: 4.4
• Career bWAR: 15.8

Desmond was a tantalizing offensive talent who had 181 home runs and 181 stolen bases over his 11-year MLB career. He won three NL Silver Slugger awards at shortstop, but his OPS only topped .800 once and strikeouts became a big issue for him in his late 20s.

The Nats kept Desmond at shortstop until he reached free agency even though he was very error-prone. Such a player might move down the defensive spectrum earlier in the Marlins organization in its current state.

With the talent that Lombard possesses, he could achieve similar counting stats and accolades by staying relatively healthy. 
 

High-end outcome: Troy Tulowitzki

• MLB seasons: 13
• Peak bWAR: 6.7
• Career bWAR: 44.8

This would be an absolute top-tier outcome for Jacob Lombard, it is unlikely for any player to be the player Troy Tulowitzki was when he played, but if Lombard reaches his peak potential, the size and talent could be as dominate as Tulo was. This would mean the glove, power, and even hit-tool max out for Lombard, making him a complete 5-tool player. As unlikely as it is, the talent is there. 

Tulowitzki would've reached even higher career WAR and counting stats if it wasn't for injuries. 

Jacob Lombard by most critics is one of the highest upside selections in recent Marlins history, the bloodlines and talent are there for Lombard to flourish. While unlikely that Lombard reaches superstar status like Tulowitzki did, the Marlins should expect an everyday big league player in some capacity.

 

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[THOMAS JOSEPH]

These "potential outcome" articles are fun reading. I will bite my tongue and try not to be snarky. Is it negativity to wonder how enlarging the developmental window (in context of the MLB ecosystem) with high school players?

I suppose baseball must consider that it is in competition for young athletes.

[Jose Herrera]

He looks like Hanley Ramirez out there.

@THOMAS JOSEPH consider the 1/1 pick in this year’s M.L.B draft. Roch Cholowsky had the talent to be a first rounder out of high school but decided to play for U.C.L.A instead.

I think if Jacob Lombard had gone and played for the University of Miami, he could have been a 1/1 pick when he decided to enter the draft. To answer your question, I reckon we will need to see how both of their careers play out.

[Robert Hanson]

The Marlins draft pick comparison I would make is Khalil Watson.  
    A H.S. shortstop who had a top 5 ranking by some, yet fell to the Marlins as the #16 overall pick. Very similar situation to Lombard.
  That year, the Marlins had a competitive balance round A pick (#31 overall), which they used on another H.S. player, Joe Mack. 

[1993 fan from start]

if can't stick at ss then does it match 14 pick value? then we have to go their. was he the right pick?   cause  i only heard three we pick talk about? 

[Jose Herrera]

@1993 fan from start His defense is one of his best attributes! You cannot blame us for taking a chance on the best player available.

Looking back at it, I'm surprised the Atlanta Braves did not draft him. They needed a shortstop, plus his dad played for them. 

[One Regend]

If Lombard can't stick at SS, he could very well be a very good 3B, as his defensive tools (theoretically) should translate there. We have next to no good options at 3B, with Aiva as our only possible alternative, and that's if the Marlins commit to him at 3rd. There's a chance Lombard might crush the minors and accelerate himself to MLB by 21 years old, albeit a very unlikely one. In that scenario, Otto Lopez and X are still around, so the organization would have no choice but to play him at 3B anyways.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

22 hours ago, Jose Herrera said:

He looks like Hanley Ramirez out there.

@THOMAS JOSEPH consider the 1/1 pick in this year’s M.L.B draft. Roch Cholowsky had the talent to be a first rounder out of high school but decided to play for U.C.L.A instead.

I think if Jacob Lombard had gone and played for the University of Miami, he could have been a 1/1 pick when he decided to enter the draft. To answer your question, I reckon we will need to see how both of their careers play out.

Oh, certainly, time will tell.