Keep these Fish out of cold water

[Ely Sussman]

The Miami Marlins have played solid ball early in the 2026 season, as reflected in their 9-8 record and positive run differential. But it hasn't consistently felt that way. During each of their first two visits to northern cities, the quality of their play has eroded in all facets, from hitting and pitching to baserunning and fielding to simple decision-making.

Coincidence, or is there something to be said for Floridians being adversely affected when they encounter a climate dramatically different from their own? How have the Marlins performed historically when playing in cold conditions? Here's what I found.

For starters, we have to establish what qualifies as "cold weather" for the Marlins. The baseline temperature at loanDepot park with the roof closed is 72 degrees Fahrenheit. Stathead allows users to search for games based on their first-pitch temperature, so I ran a query of all games in franchise history that were at least 15 degrees colder than the LDP standard (57°F or lower).

That produced a sample of 185 games, including at least one from every Marlins season with the exception of 2020, when COVID delayed Opening Day until the summer. When playing ball at <57°F, the Fish have an all-time record of 78-107 (.422 winning percentage). They've gone 1-3 in the cold so far in 2026, playing two such games apiece against the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers.

Using first-pitch temperature is not perfect. What about when it's slightly above 57° as a night game gets underway, but the majority of the game (including its highest-leverage moments) take place under "cold" conditions? Stathead found an additional 44 Marlins night games between 58°-60°—their record was 19-25 (a comparable .431 W-L%).

For context, the Marlins have an all-time .461 W-L% overall, which is a 75-win pace over a typical 162-game season. When it's cold (based on my original parameters), they perform at a 68-win pace.

Is that statistically significant? I don't think so.

The gap would be smaller if we counted cold postseason games. The Marlins are 6-2 in those, with one of those victories being the 2003 World Series clincher.

But the biggest variable to adjust for is location. Every cold game in Marlins history has been a road game. The franchise's road winning percentage (.421 W-L%) is practically identical to its cold winning percentage.

The Marlins could potentially be battling cold conditions again on their next road trip, which begins with three games at San Francisco's Oracle Park (April 24-26). The following trip includes a visit to Target Field in Minneapolis (May 12-14).

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[2qbn]

They need to figure it out so they're ready for October ;)

[Robert Hanson]

Yeah, not sure if we can assign blame to the Marlins struggles in N.Y. & Detroit on cold weather. 
   Detroit was swept in Minnesota prior to their series against the Marlins. However, both they and the Yankees are favorites to win their division. 
  Would not assign credit to the Marlins playing at home for their 5-1 start. The fact that they played Colorado & the White Sox had a lot to do with that. 
   Bottom line, we’re still not sure how good (or bad) the Marlins are just yet. Gonna need a bigger sample size. 

[Jose Herrera]

Doing jumping jacks and running poles before each game would help.

[One Regend]

Yeah, no, I'm not buying the excuse of cold weather over their poor play. And yes, I also very much didn't like it when the Dolphins & Tua pulled this same dumb excuse.

29 other teams have to play under the same conditions, and about half of them also regularly have home games played in warm weather.

They need to stop making excuses and git gud.