What would it cost for Marlins to extend sensational rookie Jakob Marsee?

[Ely Sussman]

This Miami Marlins team is not quite good enough to be playing meaningful games throughout September, but a lot of the individual pieces look like long-term contributors, and that makes this 2025 season an important step in the right direction. It was a quiet trade deadline for the Fish and it could be a quiet winter as well because of how much young talent is already in place. The key question is which players are worth truly building around and inking to contract extensions that go beyond the standard six years of club control.

The franchise's top priority should be extending Eury Pérez. In a full year's worth of starts at the major league level, he has posted an earned run average that's 39% better than the league average while being the youngest of all MLB starters during that span. Gifted with a unique physical build and arguably the nastiest pitch in baseball (his four-seam fastball), Pérez has the upside to be generational. But he is on track to reach free agency at age 26, which means the Marlins could miss out on several of the most valuable seasons of his career if they don't act quickly. The complication is, Pérez would be so highly coveted on the open market, there may not be a number that Miami's front office can responsibly offer him to justify delaying his FA eligibility.

Meanwhile, All-Star Kyle Stowers has unquestionably made the biggest impact on the Marlins in 2025. A minor oblique injury will dilute his final overall numbers, but he has emerged as a trustworthy, middle-of-the-order bat. Stowers is under control through age 31 and no longer plays a premium defensive position on a regular basis. His MLB track record is also uneven, including sub-replacement-level performance last season. As much as fans want the Fish to express their gratitude to him in the form of a multi-year deal, the urgency to do so isn't really there.

In a microscopic sample of 89 plate appearances, Jakob Marsee is looking like the ideal extension candidate. Marsee's well-rounded skill set has propelled him to a historically good first month in the majors. Also, he's represented by an agency, Dynamic Sports Group, with a relatively low profile in the baseball world and presumably eager to change that. More so than any other Marlins player, a contract covering his pre-arb, arbitration and early free agent years could be mutually beneficial.

An important caveat: I don't think Marsee will stay on this otherworldly pace through season's end. If he does—if he continues to perform like literally the best player in Major League Baseball—I have a difficult time imagining him seeking an extension. Somebody who has yet to experience one iota of adversity through two full months at the highest level of competition ought to continue betting on themselves.

My homemade rest-of-season projection for Marsee clones most of his current rate stats and counting stats while assuming a drop-off in his luck on balls in play. Let's go with three fewer singles remaining than he's recorded so far, two fewer doubles and one fewer triple. Even that is very generous to Marsee.

This would result in the following rookie stat line: .308/.382/.641, 8 HR, 14 SB, 11.2 BB% and 23.6 K% in 46 games. That should generate approximately 3.0 fWAR.

One other thing. As I got several hours deep into this exercise, I concluded there is enough analytical and entertainment value in here to justify charging money for it. If you are already a Fish On First SuperSub, you may continue scrolling without interruption! The rest of you will soon be implored to sign up. SuperSub support is absolutely vital to our survival.

 

---

Relevant Contract #1: Brandon Lowe

Prior to the 2019 season, Brandon Lowe and the Tampa Bay Rays agreed on a six-year, $24 million extension with club options for 2025 and 2026. If extended now, Marsee should insist on significantly more guaranteed money than Lowe got.

You may be surprised by how much they have in common.

View full article

[Hippyboi]

Hard to determine if he is the guy we saw in the AFL 2 years ago and AAA the last 2 months or the not so great year and a half in between, so I'd probably wait.

As to the cheap Marlins, they will never give him or Perez extensions - IMHO.

I'd like to see Johnston get at bats against lefties the rest of the year, so we know if he can be an inexpensive. contributor next year. I'll take him over Myers and Hill.

[1993 fan from start]

then their  Samuel Basallo also  with 24 million being low right because of.

in rookies season bad idea  to think about. and for marlins club .  starting the talks ok. 

but you have five  also  need to try keep  Eury Pérez ,maybe  sandy,,  Kyle Stowers ,Edward Cabrera ,thomas white ,  maybe two other rob snelling and griffen  conine ( won't cost a lot) .   plus offseason need catcher.

i see more of 28 to  32 million include bonus  if deal done during spring training next year.    

Would not be surprise to see a lot of small deals done this off season. knowing 2026 off season coming.

[Guest]

You must think you're covering some other baseball team, not the AAAA Marlins. This is nothing more than a developmental feeder team for the REAL baseball teams. The Fish develop prospects into stars and trade them for prospects which they then develop into stars, etc., etc. They are going to dump Sandy's 5 year 55 million deal because that's too rich for Sherman, who had absolutely no business buying a baseball team if he wasn't willing to play with the big boys. And MLB had no business approving of a sale to ANOTHER cheap ass owner. This was a franchise that needed an owner who was willing to ante up the kind of money it takes to compete these days and MLB really screwed up and allowed the local Miami fans (the few that were left after numerous fire sales) to get screwed AGAIN. 

[1993 fan from start]

37 minutes ago, Alex Ligero said:

You must think you're covering some other baseball team, not the AAAA Marlins. This is nothing more than a developmental feeder team for the REAL baseball teams. The Fish develop prospects into stars and trade them for prospects which they then develop into stars, etc., etc. They are going to dump Sandy's 5 year 55 million deal because that's too rich for Sherman, who had absolutely no business buying a baseball team if he wasn't willing to play with the big boys. And MLB had no business approving of a sale to ANOTHER cheap ass owner. This was a franchise that needed an owner who was willing to ante up the kind of money it takes to compete these days and MLB really screwed up and allowed the local Miami fans (the few that were left after numerous fire sales) to get screwed AGAIN. 

you can mostly BLAME current comissnor of MLB for  Sherman,. cause he was the only willing to bring in Jeter.  witch Rob said he a die hard fan of.

I was all on board with someone from Miami. like Miami billionaire Jorge Mas .   Before Sherman and his group got the team.

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Fans want to discuss such things. To me, though, it's like marrying a girl after one date. 

Also, let's see what comes from the CBA after next season. One full season under Marsee's belt will be helpful, and the new agreement may significantly change the team's payroll strategy. 

[nicholasbowling]

I don’t think the risk/reward benefits anyone here. If the Marlins pay closer to 40+ million over the course of 6 years, and Marsee regresses to the prospect he was thought to be before his debut, it could cripple the Marlins chances of winning. The Marlins have proven that they can’t handle having a player make multiple millions of dollars and not play for them. The Garcia contract practically caused another rebuild. And if the number is under $25 million, then Marsee would never sign that, because he could just bet on himself to make more during arbitration. It makes sense to just wait until June of 2026 and see from there. If the numbers are still elite, I’m sure the number wouldn’t be much higher than it is as of right now. And if they regress to the mean, you've saved yourself from overreacting for a player with 80 AB’s.

[MarlinzDude86]

We need that salary cap/floor scenario to happen at the CBA first and foremost.

[1993 fan from start]

On 8/25/2025 at 8:22 PM, MarlinzDude86 said:

We need that salary cap/floor scenario to happen at the CBA first and foremost.

my main problem is deferred money . should mlb end it or limted it?   agree we need some what of both.