I don’t think the risk/reward benefits anyone here. If the Marlins pay closer to 40+ million over the course of 6 years, and Marsee regresses to the prospect he was thought to be before his debut, it could cripple the Marlins chances of winning. The Marlins have proven that they can’t handle having a player make multiple millions of dollars and not play for them. The Garcia contract practically caused another rebuild. And if the number is under $25 million, then Marsee would never sign that, because he could just bet on himself to make more during arbitration. It makes sense to just wait until June of 2026 and see from there. If the numbers are still elite, I’m sure the number wouldn’t be much higher than it is as of right now. And if they regress to the mean, you've saved yourself from overreacting for a player with 80 AB’s.
