Why an offseason trade involving Marlins starting pitching seems inevitable

[Ely Sussman]

Once again, a non-contender has surprisingly won the bidding for a notable free agent starter, limiting the options for the teams who are most motivated to make rotation upgrades this offseason.

More than a full month into MLB free agency, Thursday's reported agreement between Luis Severino and the Athletics registers as the biggest surprise we've seen. Entering his age-31 season, the right-hander is receiving a larger guarantee ($67 million) than any player in A's history despite the club coming off a 93-loss campaign and expected to spend the duration of that deal housed in a minor league ballpark (Sacramento's Sutter Health Park).

Severino's signing was not an isolated incident, though. In late November, the similarly bad Los Angeles Angels inked left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to a similar contract (three years, $63 million).

Across the board, it's been expensive to sign starting pitchers during this free agent cycle. When adding the wrinkle that a pair of desirable mid-rotation arms have found unexpected landing spots, the supply of starters available to contenders is dwindling.

Six of the top 13 FA SPs as ranked by MLB Trade Rumors are off the market (Severino, Kikuchi, Blake Snell, Matthew Boyd, Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez), and only two of those six went to 2024 postseason teams. There are going to be teams who want a new quality starter, but either can't find what they're looking for in free agency or can't get their owner to pay what it takes for their primary target.

That is where the Miami Marlins come in. If trade inquiries regarding their major league starting pitchers haven't been coming in already, they should soon. The organization is loaded with arms on the right side of 30 who have multiple years of club control remaining at well-below market value salaries.

For several of Miami's potential trade chips, it's awkward timing. Sandy Alcantara missed all of last season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Jesús Luzardo (lumbar stress reaction) and Braxton Garrett (left forearm flexor strain, followed by a left elbow impingement) were sidelined from mid-June onward and underperformed even when they were on the mound. In each of those cases, the Marlins probably prefer to be patient and have them re-establish themselves in regular season action (and give the 2025 team some hope of actually winning games). That is, unless a desperate suitor is willing to overlook their health setbacks and bolster their trade offers to reflect that.

Ryan Weathers returned from his own lengthy IL stint in time to finish September with a flourish. However, he isn't even arbitration-eligible yet. Neither is Eury Pérez or Max Meyer, both of whom also hurt their throwing arms earlier this year. There is no urgency to include them in trades right now.

Although Valente Bellozo far exceeded expectations as a rookie (124 ERA+ in 13 GS), there are serious questions about the sustainability of his pitching style given his limited velocity and dependency on fly balls. It's hard to imagine any good team counting on him to be in their starting rotation based on what he's done to this point.

The most logical trade candidate of the bunch, in my opinion, is Edward Cabrera. The homegrown right-hander who's been very difficult to hit (career .213 BAA) has four years of club control still to go, and during the second half of 2024, he showed a newfound willingness to challenge opponents in the strike zone. The Marlins front office reportedly included Cabrera in trade talks last offseason. He's about to go through the arbitration process for the first time.

Regardless of which starter(s) ultimately get discussed, expect the Marlins to prioritize years of control when asking for players in return. If they are going to continue to thin out a rotation that lacked sufficient depth last season, it's because they have an opportunity to acquire young talent that better aligns with their competitive window.

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[Slacker Mills]

Pitching, speed and defense keep a team competitive.  Alcantara, Luzardo, Cabrera, Weathers and Garrett are a nice starting five for 2025, but how many of them will actually be able to pitch come opening day? Meyer, Fulton, Snelling, and Mazur may be good this year ... or not. Perez may come on strong ... or not. You could trade a few starters and add another three or four Norbys to the lineup, but that wouldn't improve anything.

The perfect time to trade a pitcher was to move Alcantara right after his Cy Young year and new contract. Oh, well. Perfect times to improve through the draft have been thoroughly botched. The last draft by Bendix was maybe the worst in franchise history.  Instead of relying on paid scouts to make decisions, the owner should just take the highest ranked player on the board from Fangraphs, Just Baseball or whoever with each pick. 

[rurrusuno]

I'm in total agreement with you that it would be awkward timing to trade their best starting pitchers since they're all coming off long IL stints. Edward Cabrera is the player with the best chance of getting traded this offseason. Question is, will any team be willing to pull that off? 

He was promising in the '22 and '23 campaigns, but he regressed last season. He had double the number of losses when compared to wins and his ERA was just south of 5.0. He has a good 5 pitch mix (4 seamer/changeup/curveball/slider/sinker) but it seems like batters figured him out more and took advantage so hopefully he can get back to form next season.

I predict the Marlins will wait till the summer, depending on where they are in the standings, but a move is definitely imminent. 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

Alcántara's contract looks fantastic. 

[Chad Turner]

What's the point of trading Cabrera low?  The most we would get is a couple of replacement level prospects. Perhaps he gets it going before the trade deadline and we get a Rogers-like haul.  If we trade anyone before opening day, it will be Luzardo IMHO.  I can see us getting one  decent and 2 mediocre guys back for him, and it frees up more salary.  I'm with Slacker - sell high, not low.  

[Slacker Mills]

6 hours ago, Chad Turner said:

What's the point of trading Cabrera low?  The most we would get is a couple of replacement level prospects. Perhaps he gets it going before the trade deadline and we get a Rogers-like haul.  If we trade anyone before opening day, it will be Luzardo IMHO.  I can see us getting one  decent and 2 mediocre guys back for him, and it frees up more salary.  I'm with Slacker - sell high, not low.  

What is a Rogers-like haul really? Stowers is DFA material and Norby went steeply south as soon as the competition got familiar with him.  Cabrera has great potential and should only be moved for similar upside.

[Slacker Mills]

Considering years of remaining control, committed salary, age, health, etc., I would guess that Weathers has the most current trade value among Miami starters. He's at least somewhat comparable to Garrett Crochet, who is getting lots of trade discussion.

[Hippyboi]

 "Alcantara, Luzardo, Cabrera, Weathers and Garrett are a nice starting five for 2025" Agreed.

Let those 5 start the season - all need to prove who they are -while we wait for Perez. Maybe even a 6 man rotation after that. 

I'd trade Myer yesterday if possible, but gotta give him a chance after his $$demotion last year ignored a great start. Weathers could be a staple.

If we have a few bats I'd be excited

[1993 fan from start]

did we miss the story Sandy Alcantara  opening day 2025 starter?

[1993 fan from start]

On 12/5/2024 at 4:05 PM, Slacker Mills said:

Pitching, speed and defense keep a team competitive.  Alcantara, Luzardo, Cabrera, Weathers and Garrett are a nice starting five for 2025, but how many of them will actually be able to pitch come opening day? Meyer, Fulton, Snelling, and Mazur may be good this year ... or not. Perez may come on strong ... or not. You could trade a few starters and add another three or four Norbys to the lineup, but that wouldn't improve anything.

The perfect time to trade a pitcher was to move Alcantara right after his Cy Young year and new contract. Oh, well. Perfect times to improve through the draft have been thoroughly botched. The last draft by Bendix was maybe the worst in franchise history.  Instead of relying on paid scouts to make decisions, the owner should just take the highest ranked player on the board from Fangraphs, Just Baseball or whoever with each pick. 

The perfect time to trade a pitcher was to move Alcantara right after his Cy Young year . That a big no no.  Sandy value would still be high . Cause Sandy still has most complete game in Mlb sent joining the team.    If not for TOMMY JOHN . what star mlb player or future Cy pitcher want to come play for marlins in future ? you degrade the team.  Trading  would been bad. under Jeter and Kim as past record mistakes show. 

 Plus i disagree with you on last draft . Taking highest ranked player does not work..  unless it  one in first round at most .  i don't thank worst year.  you forget Josh Booty or 2012 ,2019   i disagree  with worst. 

[1993 fan from start]

20 hours ago, Chad Turner said:

What's the point of trading Cabrera low?  The most we would get is a couple of replacement level prospects. Perhaps he gets it going before the trade deadline and we get a Rogers-like hne Laul.  If we trade anyone before opening day, it will be Luzardo IMHO.  I can see us getting one  decent and 2 mediocre guys back for him, and it frees up more salary.  I'm with Slacker - sell high, not low.  

agree but like see liuzardo  at deadline till we see how limited sandy  and Eury Pérez is.