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More than a full month into MLB free agency, Thursday's reported agreement between Luis Severino and the Athletics registers as the biggest surprise we've seen. Entering his age-31 season, the right-hander is receiving a larger guarantee ($67 million) than any player in A's history despite the club coming off a 93-loss campaign and expected to spend the duration of that deal housed in a minor league ballpark (Sacramento's Sutter Health Park).
Severino's signing was not an isolated incident, though. In late November, the similarly bad Los Angeles Angels inked left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to a similar contract (three years, $63 million).
Across the board, it's been expensive to sign starting pitchers during this free agent cycle. When adding the wrinkle that a pair of desirable mid-rotation arms have found unexpected landing spots, the supply of starters available to contenders is dwindling.
Six of the top 13 FA SPs as ranked by MLB Trade Rumors are off the market (Severino, Kikuchi, Blake Snell, Matthew Boyd, Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez), and only two of those six went to 2024 postseason teams. There are going to be teams who want a new quality starter, but either can't find what they're looking for in free agency or can't get their owner to pay what it takes for their primary target.
That is where the Miami Marlins come in. If trade inquiries regarding their major league starting pitchers haven't been coming in already, they should soon. The organization is loaded with arms on the right side of 30 who have multiple years of club control remaining at well-below market value salaries.
For several of Miami's potential trade chips, it's awkward timing. Sandy Alcantara missed all of last season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Jesús Luzardo (lumbar stress reaction) and Braxton Garrett (left forearm flexor strain, followed by a left elbow impingement) were sidelined from mid-June onward and underperformed even when they were on the mound. In each of those cases, the Marlins probably prefer to be patient and have them re-establish themselves in regular season action (and give the 2025 team some hope of actually winning games). That is, unless a desperate suitor is willing to overlook their health setbacks and bolster their trade offers to reflect that.
Ryan Weathers returned from his own lengthy IL stint in time to finish September with a flourish. However, he isn't even arbitration-eligible yet. Neither is Eury Pérez or Max Meyer, both of whom also hurt their throwing arms earlier this year. There is no urgency to include them in trades right now.
Although Valente Bellozo far exceeded expectations as a rookie (124 ERA+ in 13 GS), there are serious questions about the sustainability of his pitching style given his limited velocity and dependency on fly balls. It's hard to imagine any good team counting on him to be in their starting rotation based on what he's done to this point.
The most logical trade candidate of the bunch, in my opinion, is Edward Cabrera. The homegrown right-hander who's been very difficult to hit (career .213 BAA) has four years of club control still to go, and during the second half of 2024, he showed a newfound willingness to challenge opponents in the strike zone. The Marlins front office reportedly included Cabrera in trade talks last offseason. He's about to go through the arbitration process for the first time.
Regardless of which starter(s) ultimately get discussed, expect the Marlins to prioritize years of control when asking for players in return. If they are going to continue to thin out a rotation that lacked sufficient depth last season, it's because they have an opportunity to acquire young talent that better aligns with their competitive window.
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