Hans Herrera

A couple of days ago, Ely presented his current projected 40-man and 26-man roster, naming his rotation after Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. This group will be challenged by Max Meyer, A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, George Soriano, and some non-roster invitees, mostly for the two last spots on that rotation. I completely agree with him. Several of those projected starters for next season are either on an innings limit (Pérez) or there is some sort of uncertainty about being able to manage a full-season load (Rogers, Meyer), especially those current relievers who will be stretched into starters. In addition to this, Max Scherzer talked about the potential consequences of the pitching clock. Nothing is scientifically proven and there should be more data before drawing such conclusions. This new rule has undoubtedly been a success in terms of speeding the game up, but we are still on the learning curve when it comes to disadvantages. Coincidence or not, Scherzer underwent back surgery on Friday and will miss part of the 2024 season as a result. Since the Marlins are not doing much this offseason, the exercise presented today is to evaluate how the number of rest days influenced the performance of the starting pitchers. This is because if the front office does not transact any of the current starters, it might look like the team has an excess of them, but is that really the case? Well, in short, it depends. The data following shows how was the overall performance of the 5 main starters last season (Sandy, Jesus, Braxton, Eddy, and Eury). Note: Rest days are considered full days in between starts, so if they pitch on a Sunday and again on a Friday, those are 4 resting days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Also, the first start of the season and those outings coming from the IL or after minor league reassignments are not included. Multi-inning “bulk reliever” outings are included. Sandy AlcantaraRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS41175.275331561103.9398.5551382.28144247094.7996.866+320.217551832.1894.72Jesus LuzardoRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4127261241791103.0092.885147773362490904.2195.576+524261192234.13902Braxton GarrettRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4947472365174.4080.425158170281477103.118076+628.2311292723.77851Edward CabreraRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4733.22917203924.5481.11510463522335774.308726+27952616.43660Eury PerezRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4527.1155112811.6586351043.24120125594.1277.526+2117241111.6481.51Some patterns show up here that maybe the Marlins can try to plan around. For example, Luzardo’s stats might look like suggesting he did much better on 4 days rest, but the truth is that he had some hot streaks (early June to late July, late August to end of the season) and some bad ones (late April, first half of August) regardless of the days of rest. During that last hot streak from late August to the end of September, he only had one 4-day rest start (that game in NY before the rain). All of the others were 5 or more resting days, and he was terrific. Now take Braxton Garrett. It seems like he has a better time when you give him 5 full days between starts, and those stats include that 4.1 IP, 11 ER outing vs. Atlanta, which was on a 5 days rest. Braxton threw more than 91 pitches only twice and never reached 100. Eury was truly babied, but his two worst outings came on 5 days rest: that 1-out, 6-ER in Atlanta, and 4-inning effort vs. the Yankees where he allowed 4 earned runs. Cabrera is also a mixed bag, but his numbers look slightly better when he has 5 days off. Maybe it is a good idea to bring a 6th starter—your 5 ½th starter—when there are those long stretches with consecutive games. For example, if planned, Meyer or now A.J. Puk can work some weeks out of the bullpen, but that week with no days off, they can start one game and give the other starters a good extra day of rest to manage the total load, especially needed at the end of the season. It is difficult to control when you have to deal with injuries and most weeks have 6 games in a row, but the strategy is to do it every time you have the chance. Here are some stretches with no days off next season: March 28 (Opening Day)–April 4 (8 games)April 12–24 (13 games)April 26–May 8 (13 games)June 11–19 (9 games)June 21–30 (10 games)July 19–28 (10 games)July 30–August 11 (13 games)August 23–Sept. 1 (10 games)Sept. 3–15 (13 games)With few off days in the second half of the season, that 5 ½th starter can be useful by sparing 5-7 starts before the All-Star Game, and maybe 2 or 3 more during that brutal August schedule. It might not be so important at the beginning of the season because starters are trying to build up but can be a good idea from May on. All of this is to try to understand the impact of the current pitcher workload, now even more difficult to handle due to the pitch clock. Even though the Fish reached the postseason, let’s not forget how tough it was to navigate through the starting pitching over the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This is yet another reason to bring a back-of-the-rotation, innings-eater starter, someone who the team can rely on for 5-6 innings of competitive pitching. Another side note: With Detroit taking Jack Flaherty home, the only proposed SP for the Marlins who still hasn’t signed yet is Michael Lorenzen, although my choice would still be Jake Odorizzi. https://fishonfirst.com/fanposts/marlins-offseason-needs-starting-pitcher-2023-24/Comments are much appreciated. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Interested in submitting your own FanPosts? Leave a comment on this article with your preferred email address and we will set things up! The last couple of days have been exciting after a mostly quiet and boring MLB offseason. We saw important players like Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo both traded to the Yankees, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jeimer Candelario signing multi-year deals, Craig Kimbrel going to the Orioles, and the Winter Meetings closing with the Rule 5 Draft, where the Marlins lost Nasim Nuñez to the Nationals. Next up: Shohei Ohtani? The good news is that Troy Johnston will remain with the organization, and it is also important to highlight the 5 players selected by the Marlins in the minor league phase of the draft without losing any, somehow restocking the upper levels of the system. But that also tells you something about the quality of the minor system. It seems like the newly built front office is more worried about restructuring the managerial and coaching positions rather than acquiring players and addressing what the team needs on the field. So far this offseason, they have hired as many FO officials as players added to the 40-man, and none of the latter group can be tagged as “impactful." Now allow me to replicate what Ely posted several weeks ago, where he impersonated Peter Bendix and shared his vision of the 2024 Opening Day roster. There is still a deep pool of players the Marlins can acquire, but the proposed players here will be based on all previous FanPosts. Areas where the lineup is weak will be addressed under the premise of “long-term solutions” widely advocated by Mr. Bendix ever since he joined the organization. Cleaning the RosterTransaction: RHP Sixto Sanchez, INF Jordan Groshans, and OF Peyton Burdick are designated for assignment. There is no indication that any of them will become regular MLB players in the short term and they have zero trade value. Hopefully, they will remain with the organization, but I have lost all hope in them. The roster sits now at 36 players. CatcherEarlier this offseason I thought the catcher was the most pressing need. The catching situation got even worse after non-tendering Stallings and the current 40-man roster only has Nick Fortes as a catcher. Is now obvious that the Fish needs to acquire not only one but at least two other mitts. Transaction: Sign C Yasmani Grandal to a one-year, $4M deal with escalating incentives for plate appearances ($500k when reaching 400 PAs) with a $6M club option for a second year and $500k buyout. Transaction: Trade RHP Eli Villalobos for C Ben Rortvedt (NYY). Transaction: Sign C Austin Hedges to a minor league deal with good incentives ($2M salary) if he makes the Opening Day team. My first option was Caratini, but he signed with the Astros. Plan A is that Grandal will hopefully provide better ABs throughout the season, serving occasionally as a DH and backup catcher, plus some experience at 1B. If Hedges makes the team, it means that neither Fortes nor Rortvedt showed any improvement so can be sent down trying to figure out their problems. If Rortvedt makes the team, then Fortes will end up in Jacksonville and Hedges will hopefully continue with the organization. After the Yankees pulled the Soto trade, they lost Higashioka and 4 arms, but they still have 5 catchers in their 40-man so makes sense to try replenishing the minor league pitchers. If Grandal doesn’t sign, then Gary Sánchez. If Hedges doesn't sign, then Andrew Knizner. If Rortvedt is not traded, then go after Tucker Barnhart. The roster has now 38 players after adding Grandal and Rortvedt. ShortstopPhoto by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty ImagesThere are some options in the current 40-man roster—Jon Berti, Jacob Amaya, and now Vidal Bruján—but none of them are regarded as everyday solutions at the position. Transaction: Trade LF Bryan De La Cruz and LHP Tanner Scott for SS Geraldo Perdomo and INF Tristin English (ARI). Perdomo will platoon(ish) the position with Berti when facing LHP. Will be somewhat costly, but in return the team gets a solid regular player with several years of control. I insist on the real possibility of acquiring Perdomo since the Diamondbacks have uber-prospect SS Jordan Lawlar almost ready to join the team. After having acquired Eduardo Rodriguez, they now need a replacement for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in LF. Perdomo and DLC had a similar seasons in terms of OPS+ and wRC+, and while the former offers solid defense at a premium position, the latter has more power and is entering his prime years. It is probably an overpay, but I’ll try to get it done. Plan B: Trade SS Joey Ortiz for LHP A.J. Puk. Plan C: Just promote Amaya and share duties with Berti. The first option will settle the position for at least the next 3 years, the other 2 options come with uncertainty but both Ortiz and Amaya have nothing else to prove in AAA and the Marlins cannot do any worse than last year at the position. The roster goes back to 37. Starting PitcherA reminder that the Marlins might be interested in an SP capable of 150+ innings throughout a season, especially if they decide to trade one of their own. Transaction: Sign RHP Jake Odorizzi to a one-year deal ($7M) with incentives based on innings pitched ($1M for every 30 innings pitched after 100 IP) and a mutual option for a second year at ($10M and a $1M buyout). I know, I know. Odorizzi is just coming from TJS, so it doesn’t make sense to consider him a “workhorse,” but before the surgery Odo threw a bit over 100 innings in both 2022 and 2021, at 4.40 and 4.21 ERA respectively. Between 2014 and 2019, he averaged 165 innings per season, so it is not crazy to expect some 120-140 innings of 4.50-ish ball. Just like it was expected from Cueto last year. Plan B: Sign RHP Michael Lorenzen to a 2-year, $22M deal. I just think he'll get a better deal somewhere else. Personal first options (Maeda, Miley) have already signed for other teams. The roster goes to 38 players. Other Positions to be CoveredSome transactions have been completed, it is now time to round the active roster. Transaction: Trade LHP Trevor Rogers for OF Jake Fraley and LHP Sam Moll (CIN). Transaction: Trade minor leaguer RHP Luis Vizcaino for UTIL Kyle Farmer (MIN). Transaction: Trade LHP Steven Okert for minor leaguer RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT). After trading DLC away, there is a need to cover the corner OF position. Cincinnati has an excess of OFs, so I'll bring a solid big leaguer who might be the odd man out in the mix. Farmer is a replacement-level utility player who can play all over the infield and is that RH bat needed now that the OF is completely left-handed. After acquiring Moll, Okert became expendable, so bringing back a minor leaguer with good potential was on the table. That brings the roster to 39 players. Invitations to Spring TrainingTransaction: Sign Ps Shintaro Fujinami, Eric Lauer, Lou Trivino, Trevor Gott, Alex Reyes, Brad Keller, and Jimmy Nelson; 1B/OF Trey Mancini, C/OF Eric Haase, OFs Jesse Winker, Kyle Lewis; old friend 3B/OF Brian Anderson; INFs Nick Ahmed and Hanser Alberto to minor league contracts with an invitation to spring training. Summarizing, acquisitions are Grandal, Rortvedt, Perdomo, Odorizzi, Moll, Fraley, and Farmer; minor leaguers Baum and Ashcraft. Conversely, subtractions: Sixto Sánchez, Groshans, Burdick, Rogers, Okert; minor leaguers Villalobos and Vizcaino. And here is what the active roster would look like, followed by the rest of the 40-man roster after all the proposed transactions: Starters (5): Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett, Cabrera and Odorizzi.Relievers (8): Puk (CL), Nardi, Moll, Brazoban, Soriano, Bender, Meyer, Chargois.Catchers (2): Fortes*, Grandal.Infielders (6): Bell, Arraez, Burger, Perdomo, Berti, Farmer.Outfielders (5): Fraley, Chisholm Jr., Sánchez, García, Bruján (out of options)*.*There are 2 roster spots that will be awarded at the end of Spring Training, with front competitors being Fortes vs. Rortvedt. Mancini, Lewis, and Anderson can be in the mix vs. Brujan, according to their performance. The rest of the 40-man: Pitchers (7): Weathers, Faucher, Hoeing, Jensen, Maldonado, Ort, Simpson.Position Players (5): Amaya, Edwards, Myers, Mesa Jr., and hopefully Rortvedt (out of options) or Fortes.60-day IL (1): Alcántara.As there is still one open spot on the roster, it will also be subject to performances during spring training with prospects Troy Johnston, Tristin English, Will Banfield, Patrick Monteverde, and Luarbert Arias as frontrunners, plus some of the aforementioned NRIs. I am also very intrigued by what Fujinami can do, and maybe Mel can “fix” him to become a late-inning weapon. A regular day lineup (vs. RHP) would look like: Arráez 2BBurger 3BJazz CFBell 1BFraley LFSanchez RFGrandal / Farmer / hopefully Avi García DHFortes CPerdomo SSIn the end, the Marlins will have a weaker pitching staff by losing Scott and Sandy, but a more consistent middle-of-the-order lineup. The extra budget to the payroll would be around $12-15M, depending on bonuses, which is reasonable to expect from Sherman. Can this team make it to the playoffs next year? Comments are much appreciated. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Interested in submitting your own FanPosts? Leave a comment on this article with your preferred email address and we will set things up! After analyzing some potential offensive targets, today the focus shifts toward pitchers. Although there is a big number of arms available for next week’s draft, there aren’t a lot of names you can say will improve Miami’s bullpen corps. But teams never have enough pitching and it is particularly true during Spring Training when injuries start to appear. The success rate is historically higher when picking up pitchers than batters in the Rule 5 Draft, therefore the chance of the Marlins drafting a pitcher is a bit higher than a field player. What pitcher profile can this team actually use? Tanner Scott (closer), Andrew Nardi (setup), A.J. Puk, Huascar Brazoban, JT Chargois (late-inning relievers), Steven Okert, George Soriano, and Bryan Hoeing (long relievers/low leverage) all have more or less defined roles in the current bullpen. However, someone to replace David Robertson (right-handed high-leverage/setup) is a good start, though one can expect Anthony Bender, Anthony Maldonado, and/or even Max Meyer will be given the chance to replace that profile, with recently acquired arms Calvin Faucher and Ryan Jensen ready to compete as well. In addition to Robertson's spot, a long reliever/spot starter or low-leverage multi-innings reliever can have a space on the roster, especially if Hoeing doesn’t recover from his 2023 late-season struggles. Repeating the exercise from last week, here are a handful of pitchers that can be interesting to add to the 40-man. Both starters and relievers are considered. Given the variety of profiles, players have been divided into three categories. Ready for a ChanceThis group has nothing left to prove in AAA. Each of them comes with question marks, which is natural for any Rule 5 player available. 1. Misael Tamarez (AAA, HOU)–With raw tools, Tamarez has a mid-90s FB which can reach 99 at times, paired with a SL and a CH. This season he worked both as starter (17 Starts, 4.32 ERA, 73 Ks in 73.0 IP) and reliever (9 G, 7.07 ERA, 27 K in 28.0 IP), drawing more BBs than needed and unattractive peripherals (5.35 BB/9, 6.10 FIP, 5.34 xFIP, .270 BABIP). The Marlins have a history of “fixing” these types of players and Tamarez might be that low-risk, high-reward player teams are looking for at the draft. 2. Mitch Spence (AAA, NYY)–Never a top prospect, the 25-year-old had a solid season for the Rail Raiders leading the International League with 163.0 IP allowing 4.47 ER per 9, with similar peripherals. He struck out 153 batters and his best offering is an above-average SL which complements with a decent CV, a low-90s FB, and good control (2.93 BB/9). Meet Daniel Castano’s replacement: he can give you multi-inning efforts plus some spot starts. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/fb1d619d-7bd9-4a0d-bdb6-9389d062a5f8.mp43. Cam Sanders (AAA, CHC)–A former starter who transitioned to the bullpen due to control issues, Sanders has a tremendous arsenal with FB, SL, CV, and CH all evaluated as average or better pitches. He threw 64.2 innings out of the bullpen in Iowa, striking out 97 (!!) while walking 69 (also !!). Hello, Scott, Cabrera? Potential fits in the long runThis group might need a bit more seasoning in AAA, but if they can limit the damage during their first taste of the majors, could be worth keeping on the active roster in 2024 and prove to be a good investment in a few years. 4. Evan McKendry (AAA, MIL)–Traded during midseason from Durham (TB) to Nashville for old friend C Alex Jackson, McKendry is surely a familiar name to Mr. Bendix. Evan had better results on the former team, but still put some similar numbers between teams with a deceptive, "kitchen sink” delivery which allows a plus CH to play up. His fastball velocity is a concern, typically sitting in the low 90s and occasionally dropping even below that. He’s done with AAA, but also looks more like a depth piece. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/42899c4a-aafa-4292-998b-24dc8fc18b70.mp45. Taylor Dollard (AAA, SEA)–After a great 2022 when he won the POTY award in the AA Texas League, Dollard had an injury-marred season where he started only 3 games before joining the IL in late April and did not pitch again. He has a deep pitch mix relying more upon control than stuff. 6. Justin Jarvis (AAA, NYM)–Another prospect traded during mid-season, Jarvis is currently the Mets’ No. 15 prospect. Admittedly, he has better projection than both Spence and McKendry, but his rather poor overall year refrains him from being looked with better eyes. Throws a FB, SL, SP combo and projects as a back-spot starter. Long ShotsSuccessful players still in AA who may be a great pickup during the minor league phase of the draft. It would be surprising if they can already contribute to an MLB team. 7. Matt Sauer (AA, NYY)–Sauer had a great season with the Patriots, punching out 83 in only 68 frames while maintaining good control rates. He operates in the 91-94 mph range with a SL as his punch-out pitch. Had a bit rough AFL season. 8. Luis De Avila (AA, ATL)–My “paisano” has been a consistent minor league starter throughout the Braves’ system ever since signed, but has only pitched 3.2 innings in AAA. Still young, would be a great minor-league pick up if available. 9. Coleman Crow (AA, NYM)–Relying on good command, solid slider, and changeup, Crow underwent TJS this summer and will miss a big chunk of the next season. He had a 1.88 ERA in 4 starts before going to surgery. Honourable MentionsThese players have intriguing raw tools, but need more sustained success in the minors to be considered. 10. Chih-Jung Liu (AA, BOS)–Liu has yet to debut in AAA, but had a solid season for the Sea Dogs. He possesses a good FB/SL combo with a CH and is now throwing a splitter consistently. Has a good ceiling, but is not yet MLB-ready. 11. Cole Wilcox (AA, TB)–Tampa Bay's 11th-ranked prospect is for sure well-known by Peter Bendix. He is a 6’5” righty with a FB/SL duet and below-average control. He had 106.1 innings in AA this season and needs to improve his long-ball proclivity. 12. Angel Bastardo (AA, BOS)–Another Portland Sea Dog, Angel gets good reviews for raw stuff, but lacks consistency. His best offerings are a mid-90s FB, CH, and CV. Projects as a starter. With two open spots on the roster, there is a good chance that the Fish catch one player in the draft. Which pitcher do you think has a better chance or profile to join Miami? Comments are much appreciated. Photo of Misael Tamarez courtesy of Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Interested in submitting your own FanPosts? Leave a comment on this article with your preferred email address and we will set things up! Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! Despite some reports from major league scouts (Kevin Barral’s on X), Miami’s minor league player of the year Troy Johnston will probably be gone in two weeks after he was left unprotected for the coming Rule 5 draft to be held on Dec. 6th. The Marlins will still need good offensive players, preferably those who can play 1B and OF. Would be a plus if is a left-handed bat who can also come off the bench. After hearing what Mr. Bendix has said so far since joining the Front Office, and more importantly, Skip Schumaker’s interview with the Fish On First staff a couple of days ago, there is little doubt about this team will continue to have a limited budget, or as they call it “maximise the dollar value” or “this is just who we are." The current Miami Marlins 40-man roster has 37 players, which leaves room for scooping some hidden gems. Over the last five Rule 5 drafts (2021 was cancelled), Miami has picked up 6 players, and despite results hasn’t been exceptional, players like Elieser Hernandez or Zach Pop (acquired via trade right after drafted by ARI) outperformed everyone’s expectations. At the minor league phase of the draft, Miami has also selected decent players such as Dane Myers and Charles Leblanc. Let’s now have a look at a handful of offensive players who can make sense to be added to the roster. Looking at the numbers only, Johnston stands out as one of the best players unprotected, which leaves not many options for who can be more impactful than him in the upcoming season. Chris Williams (AAA, MIN)–Has an interesting profile with strengths and glaring weaknesses. Last season he was mainly at 1B (60 games) but also caught 215 innings (25 games) for St. Paul, where nailed 6 base-stealers out of 35 (17%). His stats suggest power (.259 ISO and 21 HR) and patience (13.4% BB), but also tons of K's (32.4%). Williams has nothing else to prove in AAA, helping with some depth in the already thin catching position. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/fdbab6bb-9830-4916-b530-513560752e3c.mp4Tristin English (AAA, ARI)–Another not-young, versatile, right-handed power bat able to play 1B, corner OFs and has previous experience at 3B. English had a fine all-around season for Reno (.894 OPS/114 wRC+) with better-than-average walking and K rates. A back up plan for Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell in case of an injury but can also be a solid bench piece. Max Schuemann (AAA, OAK)–The highly offensive environment at the PCL sometimes makes you wonder if a player is legit, especially if a needy team like Oakland kept him the entire year in Las Vegas despite his good general numbers. Max had a nice .831 OPS/109 wRC+ while playing mainly CF and LF, he can play SS on a pinch. Tirso Ornelas (AAA, SD)–The Tijuana native is a left-handed bat who can play both OF corners. He is more or less the same type of player as DLC but with less power, though he’s still 23 and scouts grade him as 55 raw power prospect (20-80 scale). Ornelas makes good contact (.348 BABIP), has oppo power and good BB and K rates. He was named one of the Padres’ organisation All- Stars. Trenton Brooks (AAA, SF)–Another left-handed corner OF option who can play 1B. Brooks is the closest to Johnston you'll find at this year’s draft. He is already 28 years old and has played in AAA over the last 3 seasons, which might be a red flag. Both BB and K rates have been 14-18% since 2021 and this season launched 23 HR in 523 PAs between Las Vegas and Sacramento. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/0be74764-65a4-4ae9-9faf-b5b9e9824b74.mp4There are some pitchers, both relievers and starters, who can be interesting additions to the team but improving the current lineup is the most important goal today. Nevertheless, next Friday’s post will cover some names for that matter. There is little indication that the Marlins will actually select any pieces for the major league roster, but with some open roster spots, at least one addition can make sense. Which target(s) looks better to join the big-league team? Maybe a name or two are missing here? Please comment! Photo courtesy of maxschuemann/Instagram