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Hans Herrera

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  1. Largely agree with you, with some small twixes: - That rotation should include Eury Pérez from June/July on, and I think Snelling will have a chance at some point next season, but won't count him as a part of the depth chart just yet. He only has one AAA outing in his career. Don't sleep on Mazur and Curry. - As commented below, Luzardo should be dealt mid-season, right after Eury is back... barring injuries from him or other Starters, of course. - For Catcher, and as of today, I think Will Banfield has a better chance to join the team than Mack. This is purely because Will is supposedly to be a good defensive backstop, which is needed, and Mack has only reached AA. Maybe Joe will surprise me during ST and leapfrog Banfield... who knows? - I loved what I saw from Norby EXCEPT when he played 3B, he is not a 3B. I would play him 2B and use López as a defensive specialist. - What did you do with Burger? - I think the RHB-platoon OF is actually Dane Myers. The CF should be Hill, who is by far the best defender of the bunch. I am already looking forward to the coming OF competition between Myers, Conine, Stowers, Hill, and some ST invitees. Maybe Mesa Jr, as well?
  2. It is a rebuild, but I think Bendix is trying for a shortcut to reach a competitive team while strengthening the farm system. And with what we saw during the second half of the season, he might be right! To call it a full-blown rebuild, I think the only players the FO can potentially deal this winter are Sandy and Luzardo... maybe Jesús Sánchez as well. With both having substantial injuries this season, their trade value is at their lowest, so if that is the direction, makes sense to wait until at least Eury is back. If I'm not mistaken, the arbitration class for next season is Sánchez (1st-year arb.), Luzardo (2nd), and Bender (1st). Even for a rebuilding team, that is not a substantial increase in your payroll, but salary bumps from Sandy and the money still owed to Avi García, will definitely impact the acquisitions in Free Agency, All in all, Luzardo, Eddy Cabrera, and Weathers are the most likely to be dealt this winter, but I won't say chances are high for any of them to change uniforms.
  3. I've said it before and I say it again: I do not expect any FA signings this offseason beyond a bunch of minor league deals with invitations to Spring Training... Maybe, maybe a cheap-specific role, like another LH reliever or a glove-first backup catcher.
  4. After a tough season, another nice takeaway is the even deeper Starting rotation this team will have next season. On paper, Sandy-Jesús-Braxton-Weathers-Eddy is the projected 5 in early 2025, while Eury should join around June. Arms like Meyer, Bellozo, and Oller can sustain several outings profiling 5IP-3ER, in case any of the aforementioned rotation pieces goes back to the shelf. That is 9 competent-or-better starters for next year, 10 if you want to add either Curry, Mazur, Munoz, or even Sixto. But hey, the Marlins also learned this season that there is no such thing as enough rotation depth. Keeping them all in the 40-man has to be the way to go this offseason. I think Miami isn't that far from being a .500 team. A full season of Sandy, Luzardo, and any other plus a half-season of Eury should be enough to include the Fish in a top-10 rotation. There are several solid bullpen pieces to keep: Faucher, Tinoco, Cronin, Nardi, Bender, McMillon... that's half a bullpen. Finding a closer will be the biggest task this winter. Granted, so many things have to go the right way to compete next season. A healthy rotation for starters, further development of the youngsters, i.e., Xavier Edwards, Jesús Sánchez, Dane Myers, Griffin Conine, etc., better bullpen, among others. At least one impact bat, whether it comes from prospects, FA, or trade, is definitely needed to have a better-rounded team, 2 of those bats would be ideal. My shopping list for this offseason would be something like: 1. One or two bats who can play 3B, 1B, or Corner OF with 25+ HR (don't say Bride) 2. A bona fide closer 3. A veteran glove-first C 4. Two established relievers 5. Someone who can actually play good SS (defensive specialist) I will insist this offseason on prospect promotions: De Los Santos, Ramírez, Banfield, or arms like Arias or Alvarado deserve an ST invitation, with the potential of seizing the opportunity. Now let's have a sit and see what Bendix and Sherman will do.
  5. Is Norby that bad at 2B? The handful of games I’ve seen him playing, he looks far better (and more comfortable) at 2B than at 3rd. A Burger-X-Norby-Bride infield still looks subpar. From what I’ve hear, DLS is very capable at 1B, not sure if Ramírez have ever played there, but maybe has more future there than behind the plate. The coming FA class for 1B has Alonso, Goldsmith, and Walker out of financial reach, but options like Santana and Canha can be reasonable. Maybe lure O’Hearn if the Orioles don’t take their option? How about old friend Cooper? - At least we know he’s an OK glove at the position…
  6. Fun fact: If the Marlins field this team: Edwards SS Norby 2B Sánchez RF Burger 3B Bride 1B Myers DH Conine LF Hill CF Fortes C 7 out of 9 starters currently have an OPS at or above the MLB average YTD (.722 min 200 PA)... Hill is sitting at .691, which is somehow close to the average. Fortes is far behind, obviously. For a team that ranks at the bottom of almost every offensive category, this fun fact can be misleading. Having full seasons from Norby and Edwards (with their corresponding projected outcomes) should really boost this team. Maybe a .500 team is not that far from the horizon... What if this team - and I insist - just gives a chance to Ramírez and De Los Santos? C, 1B, DH, corner OF, are all areas of improvement. Again, don't expect any money spending. It simply won't happen coz Uncle Bruce cannot be any cheaper. Then, why not try the youngsters?
  7. Meet the new Bryan De La Cruz: Dane Myers. Who's playing CF next year? Stowers? Is he good enough to play there? I honestly have not seen enough to make a call.
  8. Well, Norby is not a 3B. He can fake it, but he's not. Edwards is not a SS. He can fake it, but he isn't, López is among the best defensive 2B in the league, but he is a bench player. So why not stop improvising? Leave Burger at 3B, Norby at 2B, keep faking X at SS, and if needed, trade for a proper Major League SS. Bringing back Miggy Rojas is not a terrible idea, TBH. The coming FA class is incredibly thin for 3B and 2B: Only Alex Bregman, Ha Soeng Kim, and Gleyber Torres are bona fide starters, and the Marlins won't pursue any of them. Not to mention I do not expect any kind of FA signing this offseason. Sherman still owes 17M to Avi García. Sandy's contract is jumping from 9 to 17M. That is a 34M just for 2 players, one of them already out of the roster. Burger will have a significant salary increase... In summary, expect a bunch of minor league contracts with invitations to SP, crossing fingers to find another Jonah Bride, Calvin Faucher, or Adam Oller. Of course, the Marlins can "solve" the situation by promoting Sanoja, Ramírez, and De Los Santos to SS, C, and 1B, respectively. However, as much as I like them, they are inexperienced and should come with growing pains. But again, isn't this team rebuilding as we read? When will this team start giving their prospects a fair chance to establish themselves at a Major League level right out of Spring Training? Who was the last farm prospect who was handed a starting role right from ST? I honestly don't remember... not even Eury, as he had to wait until May to make his debut. Maybe play them early in the season and get an established player mid-way next season when the value of one of your SPs (Luzardo, Garrett, Eddy, Weathers) is at their peak? I foresee a boring offseason in South Florida. My hope is that the FO finally goes all-in with their MLB-ready prospects.. at least we will know if they are for real or not.
  9. Isn’t today a beautiful day? I really wish Javier the best. I hope that he takes advantage of this opportunity, and can stick around on the roster beyond this season.
  10. But why not Sanoja, De Los Santos, or even Troy Johnston instead? Even though the power is undeniable, Ramirez' overall AAA season is not particularly impressive: .239/.341/.396 with 7 HR and 32 RBIs in 229 PAs. That is rather pedestrian to deserve a call-up. Let him continue his development for at least another couple of months, and we'll see next year if he can handle MLB pitching. Sanoja is my favourite prospect now. He has shown that AAA wasn't a big challenge for him. He has played now a full season with the Jumbo Shrimp (478 PAs) while playing 2B/CF/SS! His .287/.352/.428 is solid indeed, and while he probably won't ever hit 10 HRs in the Majors, his OPS and gap power (30 doubles - JAX leader) are worth taking a look at. What are Otto López and Cristian Pache still holding a spot on the roster? DLS has hit 8 HRs in 90 ABs for Jacksonville, good for a .469 SLG. He can play good 1B, something the Fish have been missing all year long (recognising Bride has been a pleasant surprise). There is honestly NOTHING else to say about Johnston but to ask, what is that thing preventing him from the big league call? He isn't hitting like last year, but he definitely deserves a cup of coffee, at least until Jesús is back on the roster. Between one of the latter two, "Hamburguesa", and Bride should rotate the 3B-1B-DH tandem for the rest of the year.
  11. In case anyone is wondering about Viciedo, he joined the Chunichi Dragons in 2016 and still plays for them: https://npb.jp/bis/eng/players/13715132.html Personally, and somewhere also mentioned, it is now the time to trade Bell (3 HRs over the last 4 games; 4 HRs in the last 9). Milwaukee needs a LH bat, the Astros are still struggling at 1B, so are the Mariners. If no trade comes to fruition, I would just DFA him and bring Johnston and maybe De Los Santos in September, why not?
  12. Yesterday, the O’s announced that both John Means and Tyler Wells will go to UCL surgery, missing the ready of the season. With Max Meyer having nothing else to prove in Jax, has ever been a better time to trade with the Orioles? Eddy should be coming back June, hopefully. Any deal involving Kjerstad, I’m in. NB: I am one of the few who thinks that the season can still be saved, and I don’t want that they trade Luzardo… but this might be the only opportunity to get a really good prospect. Maybe a Weathers-Scott combo to Baltimore for Kjerstad +?
  13. Hey Ely, I disagree with you about the bad being Sixto. That pitch location was not perfect, but still pretty good... I think we are taking some merit from Oneil Cruz. Also, the fact that Skip threw Sixto into a high-leverage situation is not pretty, but the sooner Sixto gets into his old form, the better... so why not start trying to get him there from day one? Apart from that, I agree with you about the rest. Did we say something about the Marlins being the team that scored the fewest runs in Spring Training?
  14. Hola a todos! Los entrenamientos primaverales han concluido para los Marlins de Miami con un récord de 10 victorias, 12 derrotas y 5 empates. A pesar del record negativo, el equipo terminó su participación en la liga Toronja con una nota alta. Jugadores clave como Luis Arráez, Jake Burger, Jazz Chisholm y Tim Anderson lucieron sólidos en la recta final de los entrenamientos; otros como Dane Myers, Troy Johnston y Jonah Bride pueden contribuir durante la temporada, a pesar de estar incluidos en el roster del Jumbo Shrimp de Jacksonville. En cuanto al pitcheo, es importante resaltar la profundidad del cuerpo de lanzadores. A pesar de cuatro las bajas importantes en el quinteto abridor que en teoría iniciaría la temporada, i.e., Alcántara, Cabrera, Garrett, y Eury Pérez, el establo ha visto como A.J. Puk, Weathers, Trevor Rogers y Max Meyer han dado un paso al frente para generar confianza entre los dirigentes de la escuadra. Este último cuarteto abridor, acompañados del brazo de Día Inaugural Jesús Luzardo, serán quienes guíen al equipo al principio de la temporada, por lo menos hasta que Garrett, Cabrera y Pérez regresen de sendas lesiones. El bullpen no ha estado exento de bajas, aunque en menor medida. Huascar Brazobán no ha podido sumarse al equipo por problemas de visado. JT Chargois sufrió agotamiento y se espera que inicie abril en la lista de lesionados. Los nuevos brazos adquiridos durante la temporada muerta han cubierto estas bajas, por ejemplo Roddery Muñoz, Declan Cronin, Vladimir Gutierrez y los exitosos regresos desde sus lesiones por parte de Sixto Sánchez y Anthony Bender. Hoy martes los Peces jugaran un juego intra-escuadra en donde Edward Cabrera enfrentará bateadores por primera vez en varias semanas. Luego de este juego se definirá el roster definitivo de 26 jugadores, el cual aún tiene algunas dudas antes del juego contra los Piratas este jueves. Por ahora, el equipo se proyecta así: Receptores: Fortes, Bethancourt (2) Cuadro: Bell, Arráez, Burger, Anderson, Berti (5) Jardineros: De La Cruz, Chisholm, J. Sánchez, García (4) Utilitarios: Bruján, Gordon (2) Abridores: Luzardo, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Meyer (5) Relevos: Scott, Nardi, S. Sánchez, Soriano, Bender, Hoeing, Maldonado, Gutiérrez (8) La duda más importante está en el bullpen, pues Hoeing, Cronin, Muñoz, Maldonado, Gutiérrez, e incluso Monteverde se pelean por los últimos dos o tres lugares del equipo de relevistas. En cualquier caso, el hecho de tener tantos brazos competentes para iniciar la temporada es un signo de fortaleza, muy a pesar de que los dueños y directiva del equipo hayan decidido no ir a la agencia libre por refuerzos. Muchos estaremos pendientes del rendimiento de jugadores como Avisaíl García, Vidal Bruján y Sixto Sánchez. En el caso de García, su contrato de $12 millones de dólares parece la única razón por la cual tiene garantizado un lugar en el roster, más aún con el pobre rendimiento mostrado en marzo, bateando para .205 de promedio, con un OPS de .536 y 13 ponches en 49 turnos al plato. Un caso parecido es el de Vidal Bruján, quien aunque no tiene un contrato costoso, los Marlins lo intercambiaron a las Mantarrayas de Tampa (junto con Calvin Faucher) por 3 prospectos. Dado el concenso general del pobre sistema de categorías inferiores de Miami y el rendimiento superlativo de Myers y Johnston en la liga Toronja, la presión está del lado de García y Bruján para que empiecen a producir de una vez y por todas. Finalmente, muchos ojos estarán sobre Sixto Sánchez por razones completamente diferentes. Luego de más de tres años de haber lanzado su último pitcheo en grandes ligas y de varias lesiones que lo mantuvieron lejos de competir, Sixto ha regresado esta primavera, sorprendiendo a propios y extraños. Su recta operó entre 93-96 millas por hora, alcanzando casi 99 en un par de lanzamientos. Tanto ha sido su progreso, que el manager Skip Schumaker ya lo confirmó como integrante del bullpen para el inicio de la temporada, algo que parecía insólito hasta hace un par de meses. Esta puede ser una de las mejores historias de regresos este año y todos estaremos deseándo que tenga una exitosa temporada. Hasta aqui el resumen de la pre-temporada. Estaremos haciendo análisis periódicos del rendimiento de los Marlins a lo largo de la temporada regular, asi que estén atentos! Nos veremos en la próxima y deja tu comentario!
  15. Hola a todos! Volvemos con otra entrada de Peces en Primera. Esta vez analizaremos el rendimiento general del equipo luego de dos semanas de juegos en la Liga Toronja. Aunque a día de hoy Los Marlins se encuentran últimos en la tabla con foja de 3-6-2, el rendimiento general ha sido más de lo mismo: Buen pitcheo abridor, buen bullpen, preocupante número de carreras anotadas a la ofensiva. Los “caballos” abridores han permitido 3 CL o menos en 9 de los 11 encuentros a la fecha. El cuerpo de relevistas ha lucido sólido, con excepción de Tanner Scott y un par de jugadores invitados al roster. En contraste, la ofensiva ha lucido apagada, anotando más de 3 carreras en solo 3 encuentros de la docena total. Luis Arraez había lucido apagado hasta ayer, cuando bateó 3-3 y así volvimos a ver al de siempre. En notas particulares, se ha anunciado que existe una gran posibilidad de que A.J. Puk se una a la rotación abridora para iniciar la temporada. Con Sandy Alcántara recuperándose de la cirugía Tommy John y Braxton Garrett retrasado en su recuperación de una fatiga en el hombro, el rendimiento de Puk ha sido muy bien recibido dado su “stuff” como abridor de primera calidad. Siguiendo con los brazos, Sixto Sánchez ha sorprendido gratamente a compañeros, aficionados y a todos en general. En el juego de ayer viernes alcanzó las 96 millas y luce capaz de manejar algún rol en el bullpen. Por último, últimamente de rumora la traída de J.D. Martínez como refuerzo ofensivo. Su rol sería básicamente con bateador designado, reduciendo aún más las posibilidades de juego para Avisail García, quien dicho sea de paso ha tenido un entrenamiento primaveral para el olvido. Estaremos atentos a esta noticia. Seguiremos con el cubrimiento en Español de las noticias relacionadas con el equipo, ya entrados en la recta final de la Liga Toronja y de cara al inicio de la temporada regular. Hasta la próxima!
  16. My NRI darkhorse is Casali. If we include Fortes and Bethancourt, none of the three catchers have the edge with the bat. Fortes still has minor-league options. Bethancourt can be non-tendered. Casali basically has nothing to lose...
  17. At this point, almost any minor-league deal is welcomed. Good potential and depth piece. Low-case: Stays in AAA the entire season. High-case: 2024's Cueto with a 5.00-ish ERA in 10 starts. Is the bar that low when it comes to signing players? I mean, are we sure we don't need to sign an MLB-proven SP (hello, Odorizzi/Lorenzen)?
  18. Hola a todos los hispanohablantes! A partir de hoy estaremos comentando las noticias más importantes del equipo. Cada semana haremos un resumen de lo que pasó y lo que viene para el equipo. Empezaremos esta temporada 2024 con el roster actual, los juegos de entrenamiento primaveral y las expectativas de cada uno de los integrantes de la página en inglés de Fish on First. Por ahora, las noticias más importantes son la llegada de Tim Anderson a jugar el campocorto, la primera sesión de bullpen de Sixto Sánchez, el primer juego de la Liga Toronja será para Ryan Weathers y algunos nombres interesantes que se encuentran en el equipo con invitados non-roster. Los mantendremos informados!
  19. I guess in the same spots this team had Wendle, Stallings, and/or Segura... all of them had lower OPS than Tim last year. Almost any improvement from Tim will make this team better than last year. Rosario? Sure, I recognise they are similar players and Rosario wasn't as ugly as Tim was last year, but has he ever had a .300 average season? Has he ever been an All-Star...? That's the reason for the overpay: https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=rosari000ame&player_id1=anders003tim&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=anderti01
  20. Updating this idea, here is a theoretical schedule for next season. - This applies if no injuries, rain delays, etc (pretty unrealistic). - Mostly to give the idea of the concept. - Meyer is penciled in as the 5 1/2 starter and is starting 15 games. The others are starting 29/30 games. DATE GAME STARTER 28/03/2024 Pirates at Marlins Luzardo 29/03/2024 Pirates at Marlins Perez 30/03/2024 Pirates at Marlins Garrett 31/03/2024 Pirates at Marlins Cabrera 01/04/2024 Angels at Marlins Rogers 02/04/2024 Angels at Marlins Luzardo 03/04/2024 Angels at Marlins Perez 04/04/2024 Marlins at Cards Garrett 05/04/2024 06/04/2024 Marlins at Cards Cabrera 07/04/2024 Marlins at Cards Rogers 08/04/2024 Marlins at Yanks Luzardo 09/04/2024 Marlins at Yankees Perez 10/04/2024 Marlins at Yankees Garrett 11/04/2024 12/04/2024 Braves at Marlins Cabrera 13/04/2024 Braves at Marlins Rogers 14/04/2024 Braves at Marlins Luzardo 15/04/2024 Giants at Marlins Perez 16/04/2024 Giants at Marlins Garrett 17/04/2024 Giants at Marlins MEYER 18/04/2024 Marlins at Cubs Cabrera 19/04/2024 Marlins at Cubs Rogers 20/04/2024 Marlins at Cubs Luzardo 21/04/2024 Marlins at Cubs Perez 22/04/2024 Marlins at Braves Garrett 23/04/2024 Marlins at Braves Cabrera 24/04/2024 Marlins at Braves Rogers 25/04/2024 26/04/2024 Nats at Marlins Luzardo 27/04/2024 Nats at Marlins Perez 28/04/2024 Nats at Marlins Garrett 29/04/2024 Nats at Marlins Cabrera 30/04/2024 Rockies at Marlins Rogers 01/05/2024 Rockies at Marlins Luzardo 02/05/2024 Rockies at Marlins MEYER 03/05/2024 Marlins at Athletics Perez 04/05/2024 Marlins at Athletics Garrett 05/05/2024 Marlins at Athletics Cabrera 06/05/2024 Marlins at Dodgers Rogers 07/05/2024 Marlins at Dodgers Luzardo 08/05/2024 Marlins at Dodgers MEYER 09/05/2024 10/05/2024 Phillies at Marlins Perez 11/05/2024 Phillies at Marlins Garrett 12/05/2024 Phillies at Marlins Cabrera 13/05/2024 Marlins at Tigers Rogers 14/05/2024 Marlins at Tigers Luzardo 15/05/2024 Marlins at Tigers MEYER 16/05/2024 17/05/2024 Mets at Marlins Perez 18/05/2024 Mets at Marlins Garrett 19/05/2024 Mets at Marlins Cabrera 20/05/2024 Brewers at Marlins Rogers 21/05/2024 Brewers at Marlins Luzardo 22/05/2024 Brewers at Marlins MEYER 23/05/2024 24/05/2024 Marlins at D-backs Perez 25/05/2024 Marlins at D-backs Garrett 26/05/2024 Marlins at D-backs Cabrera 27/05/2024 Marlins at Padres Rogers 28/05/2024 Marlins at Padres Luzardo 29/05/2024 Marlins at Padres MEYER 30/05/2024 31/05/2024 Rangers at Marlins Perez 01/06/2024 Rangers at Marlins Garrett 02/06/2024 Rangers at Marlins Cabrera 03/06/2024 04/06/2024 Rays at Marlins Rogers 05/06/2024 Rays at Marlins Luzardo 06/06/2024 07/06/2024 Guards at Marlins Perez 08/06/2024 Guards at Marlins Garrett 09/06/2024 Guards at Marlins Cabrera 10/06/2024 11/06/2024 Marlins at Mets Rogers 12/06/2024 Marlins at Mets Luzardo 13/06/2024 Marlins at Mets Perez 14/06/2024 Marlins at Nats Garrett 15/06/2024 Marlins at Nats Cabrera 16/06/2024 Marlins at Nats Rogers 17/06/2024 Cards at Marlins Luzardo 18/06/2024 Cards at Marlins Perez 19/06/2024 Cards at Marlins Garrett 20/06/2024 21/06/2024 Mariners at Marlins Cabrera 22/06/2024 Mariners at Marlins Rogers 23/06/2024 Mariners at Marlins Luzardo 24/06/2024 Marlins at Royals Perez 25/06/2024 Marlins at Royals Garrett 26/06/2024 Marlins at Royals MEYER 27/06/2024 Marlins at Phillies Cabrera 28/06/2024 Marlins at Phillies Rogers 29/06/2024 Marlins at Phillies Luzardo 30/06/2024 Marlins at Phillies Perez 01/07/2024 02/07/2024 Red Sox at Marlins Garrett 03/07/2024 Red Sox at Marlins Cabrera 04/07/2024 Red Sox at Marlins Rogers 05/07/2024 W Sox at Marlins Luzardo 06/07/2024 W Sox at Marlins Perez 07/07/2024 W Sox at Marlins MEYER 08/07/2024 09/07/2024 Marlins at Astros Garrett 10/07/2024 Marlins at Astros Cabrera 11/07/2024 Marlins at Astros Rogers 12/07/2024 Marlins at Reds Luzardo 13/07/2024 Marlins at Reds Perez 14/07/2024 Marlins at Reds MEYER 15/07/2024 16/07/2024 ASG Break 17/07/2024 18/07/2024 19/07/2024 Mets at Marlins Luzardo 20/07/2024 Mets at Marlins Perez 21/07/2024 Mets at Marlins Garrett 22/07/2024 Mets at Marlins Cabrera 23/07/2024 Orioles at Marlins Rogers 24/07/2024 Orioles at Marlins Luzardo 25/07/2024 Orioles at Marlins Perez 26/07/2024 Marlins at Brewers Garrett 27/07/2024 Marlins at Brewers Cabrera 28/07/2024 Marlins at Brewers Rogers 29/07/2024 30/07/2024 Marlins at Rays Luzardo 31/07/2024 Marlins at Rays Perez 01/08/2024 Marlins at Braves Garrett 02/08/2024 Marlins at Braves Cabrera 03/08/2024 Marlins at Braves Rogers 04/08/2024 Marlins at Braves MEYER 05/08/2024 Reds at Marlins Luzardo 06/08/2024 Reds at Marlins Perez 07/08/2024 Reds at Marlins Garrett 08/08/2024 Reds at Marlins Cabrera 09/08/2024 Padres at Marlins Rogers 10/08/2024 Padres at Marlins MEYER 11/08/2024 Padres at Marlins Luzardo 12/08/2024 13/08/2024 Marlins at Phillies Perez 14/08/2024 Marlins at Phillies Garrett 15/08/2024 16/08/2024 Marlins at Mets Cabrera 17/08/2024 Marlins at Mets Rogers 18/08/2024 Marlins at Mets Luzardo 19/08/2024 D-backs at Marlins Perez 20/08/2024 D-backs at Marlins Garrett 21/08/2024 D-backs at Marlins Cabrera 22/08/2024 23/08/2024 Cubs at Marlins Rogers 24/08/2024 Cubs at Marlins Luzardo 25/08/2024 Cubs at Marlins Perez 26/08/2024 Marlins at Rockies Garrett 27/08/2024 Marlins at Rockies Cabrera 28/08/2024 Marlins at Rockies MEYER 29/08/2024 Marlins at Rockies Rogers 30/08/2024 Marlins at Giants Luzardo 31/08/2024 Marlins at Giants Perez 01/09/2024 Marlins at Giants Garrett 02/09/2024 03/09/2024 Nats at Marlins Cabrera 04/09/2024 Nats at Marlins Rogers 05/09/2024 Phillies at Marlins Luzardo 06/09/2024 Phillies at Marlins Perez 07/09/2024 Phillies at Marlins Garrett 08/09/2024 Phillies at Marlins MEYER 09/09/2024 Marlins at Pirates Cabrera 10/09/2024 Marlins at Pirates Rogers 11/09/2024 Marlins at Pirates Luzardo 12/09/2024 Marlins at Nats Perez 13/09/2024 Marlins at Nats Garrett 14/09/2024 Marlins at Nats MEYER 15/09/2024 Marlins at Nats Cabrera 16/09/2024 17/09/2024 Dodgers at Marlins Rogers 18/09/2024 Dodgers at Marlins Luzardo 19/09/2024 Dodgers at Marlins Perez 20/09/2024 Braves at Marlins Garrett 21/09/2024 Braves at Marlins Cabrera 22/09/2024 Braves at Marlins Rogers 23/09/2024 24/09/2024 Marlins at Twins Luzardo 25/09/2024 Marlins at Twins Perez 26/09/2024 Marlins at Twins Garrett 27/09/2024 Marlins at Blu Jays Cabrera 28/09/2024 Marlins at Blu Jays Rogers 29/09/2024 Marlins at Blu Jays MEYER (Luzardo can start this game if it is a must-win)
  21. A couple of days ago, Ely presented his current projected 40-man and 26-man roster, naming his rotation after Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. This group will be challenged by Max Meyer, A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, George Soriano, and some non-roster invitees, mostly for the two last spots on that rotation. I completely agree with him. Several of those projected starters for next season are either on an innings limit (Pérez) or there is some sort of uncertainty about being able to manage a full-season load (Rogers, Meyer), especially those current relievers who will be stretched into starters. In addition to this, Max Scherzer talked about the potential consequences of the pitching clock. Nothing is scientifically proven and there should be more data before drawing such conclusions. This new rule has undoubtedly been a success in terms of speeding the game up, but we are still on the learning curve when it comes to disadvantages. Coincidence or not, Scherzer underwent back surgery on Friday and will miss part of the 2024 season as a result. Since the Marlins are not doing much this offseason, the exercise presented today is to evaluate how the number of rest days influenced the performance of the starting pitchers. This is because if the front office does not transact any of the current starters, it might look like the team has an excess of them, but is that really the case? Well, in short, it depends. The data following shows how was the overall performance of the 5 main starters last season (Sandy, Jesus, Braxton, Eddy, and Eury). Note: Rest days are considered full days in between starts, so if they pitch on a Sunday and again on a Friday, those are 4 resting days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Also, the first start of the season and those outings coming from the IL or after minor league reassignments are not included. Multi-inning “bulk reliever” outings are included. Sandy AlcantaraRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS41175.275331561103.9398.5551382.28144247094.7996.866+320.217551832.1894.72Jesus LuzardoRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4127261241791103.0092.885147773362490904.2195.576+524261192234.13902Braxton GarrettRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4947472365174.4080.425158170281477103.118076+628.2311292723.77851Edward CabreraRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4733.22917203924.5481.11510463522335774.308726+27952616.43660Eury PerezRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4527.1155112811.6586351043.24120125594.1277.526+2117241111.6481.51Some patterns show up here that maybe the Marlins can try to plan around. For example, Luzardo’s stats might look like suggesting he did much better on 4 days rest, but the truth is that he had some hot streaks (early June to late July, late August to end of the season) and some bad ones (late April, first half of August) regardless of the days of rest. During that last hot streak from late August to the end of September, he only had one 4-day rest start (that game in NY before the rain). All of the others were 5 or more resting days, and he was terrific. Now take Braxton Garrett. It seems like he has a better time when you give him 5 full days between starts, and those stats include that 4.1 IP, 11 ER outing vs. Atlanta, which was on a 5 days rest. Braxton threw more than 91 pitches only twice and never reached 100. Eury was truly babied, but his two worst outings came on 5 days rest: that 1-out, 6-ER in Atlanta, and 4-inning effort vs. the Yankees where he allowed 4 earned runs. Cabrera is also a mixed bag, but his numbers look slightly better when he has 5 days off. Maybe it is a good idea to bring a 6th starter—your 5 ½th starter—when there are those long stretches with consecutive games. For example, if planned, Meyer or now A.J. Puk can work some weeks out of the bullpen, but that week with no days off, they can start one game and give the other starters a good extra day of rest to manage the total load, especially needed at the end of the season. It is difficult to control when you have to deal with injuries and most weeks have 6 games in a row, but the strategy is to do it every time you have the chance. Here are some stretches with no days off next season: March 28 (Opening Day)–April 4 (8 games)April 12–24 (13 games)April 26–May 8 (13 games)June 11–19 (9 games)June 21–30 (10 games)July 19–28 (10 games)July 30–August 11 (13 games)August 23–Sept. 1 (10 games)Sept. 3–15 (13 games)With few off days in the second half of the season, that 5 ½th starter can be useful by sparing 5-7 starts before the All-Star Game, and maybe 2 or 3 more during that brutal August schedule. It might not be so important at the beginning of the season because starters are trying to build up but can be a good idea from May on. All of this is to try to understand the impact of the current pitcher workload, now even more difficult to handle due to the pitch clock. Even though the Fish reached the postseason, let’s not forget how tough it was to navigate through the starting pitching over the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This is yet another reason to bring a back-of-the-rotation, innings-eater starter, someone who the team can rely on for 5-6 innings of competitive pitching. Another side note: With Detroit taking Jack Flaherty home, the only proposed SP for the Marlins who still hasn’t signed yet is Michael Lorenzen, although my choice would still be Jake Odorizzi. https://fishonfirst.com/fanposts/marlins-offseason-needs-starting-pitcher-2023-24/Comments are much appreciated. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
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