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A couple of days ago, Ely presented his current projected 40-man and 26-man roster, naming his rotation after Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. This group will be challenged by Max Meyer, A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, George Soriano, and some non-roster invitees, mostly for the two last spots on that rotation. I completely agree with him.
Several of those projected starters for next season are either on an innings limit (Pérez) or there is some sort of uncertainty about being able to manage a full-season load (Rogers, Meyer), especially those current relievers who will be stretched into starters.
In addition to this, Max Scherzer talked about the potential consequences of the pitching clock. Nothing is scientifically proven and there should be more data before drawing such conclusions. This new rule has undoubtedly been a success in terms of speeding the game up, but we are still on the learning curve when it comes to disadvantages. Coincidence or not, Scherzer underwent back surgery on Friday and will miss part of the 2024 season as a result.
Since the Marlins are not doing much this offseason, the exercise presented today is to evaluate how the number of rest days influenced the performance of the starting pitchers. This is because if the front office does not transact any of the current starters, it might look like the team has an excess of them, but is that really the case?
Well, in short, it depends. The data following shows how was the overall performance of the 5 main starters last season (Sandy, Jesus, Braxton, Eddy, and Eury).
Note: Rest days are considered full days in between starts, so if they pitch on a Sunday and again on a Friday, those are 4 resting days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Also, the first start of the season and those outings coming from the IL or after minor league reassignments are not included. Multi-inning “bulk reliever” outings are included.
Sandy Alcantara
| Rest Days | G | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | Pitches (Avg) | QS |
| 4 | 11 | 75.2 | 75 | 33 | 15 | 61 | 10 | 3.93 | 98.5 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | 82.2 | 81 | 44 | 24 | 70 | 9 | 4.79 | 96.8 | 6 |
| 6+ | 3 | 20.2 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 2.18 | 94.7 | 2 |
Jesus Luzardo
| Rest Days | G | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | Pitches (Avg) | QS |
| 4 | 12 | 72 | 61 | 24 | 17 | 91 | 10 | 3.00 | 92.8 | 8 |
| 5 | 14 | 77 | 73 | 36 | 24 | 90 | 90 | 4.21 | 95.5 | 7 |
| 6+ | 5 | 24 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 3 | 4.13 | 90 | 2 |
Braxton Garrett
| Rest Days | G | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | Pitches (Avg) | QS |
| 4 | 9 | 47 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 51 | 7 | 4.40 | 80.4 | 2 |
| 5 | 15 | 81 | 70 | 28 | 14 | 77 | 10 | 3.11 | 80 | 7 |
| 6+ | 6 | 28.2 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 3.77 | 85 | 1 |
Edward Cabrera
| Rest Days | G | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | Pitches (Avg) | QS |
| 4 | 7 | 33.2 | 29 | 17 | 20 | 39 | 2 | 4.54 | 81.1 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | 46 | 35 | 22 | 33 | 57 | 7 | 4.30 | 87 | 2 |
| 6+ | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6.43 | 66 | 0 |
Eury Perez
| Rest Days | G | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | Pitches (Avg) | QS |
| 4 | 5 | 27.1 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 1.65 | 86 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | 43.2 | 41 | 20 | 12 | 55 | 9 | 4.12 | 77.5 | 2 |
| 6+ | 2 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 1.64 | 81.5 | 1 |
Some patterns show up here that maybe the Marlins can try to plan around.
For example, Luzardo’s stats might look like suggesting he did much better on 4 days rest, but the truth is that he had some hot streaks (early June to late July, late August to end of the season) and some bad ones (late April, first half of August) regardless of the days of rest. During that last hot streak from late August to the end of September, he only had one 4-day rest start (that game in NY before the rain). All of the others were 5 or more resting days, and he was terrific.
Now take Braxton Garrett. It seems like he has a better time when you give him 5 full days between starts, and those stats include that 4.1 IP, 11 ER outing vs. Atlanta, which was on a 5 days rest. Braxton threw more than 91 pitches only twice and never reached 100.
Eury was truly babied, but his two worst outings came on 5 days rest: that 1-out, 6-ER in Atlanta, and 4-inning effort vs. the Yankees where he allowed 4 earned runs. Cabrera is also a mixed bag, but his numbers look slightly better when he has 5 days off.
Maybe it is a good idea to bring a 6th starter—your 5 ½th starter—when there are those long stretches with consecutive games. For example, if planned, Meyer or now A.J. Puk can work some weeks out of the bullpen, but that week with no days off, they can start one game and give the other starters a good extra day of rest to manage the total load, especially needed at the end of the season.
It is difficult to control when you have to deal with injuries and most weeks have 6 games in a row, but the strategy is to do it every time you have the chance. Here are some stretches with no days off next season:
- March 28 (Opening Day)–April 4 (8 games)
- April 12–24 (13 games)
- April 26–May 8 (13 games)
- June 11–19 (9 games)
- June 21–30 (10 games)
- July 19–28 (10 games)
- July 30–August 11 (13 games)
- August 23–Sept. 1 (10 games)
- Sept. 3–15 (13 games)
With few off days in the second half of the season, that 5 ½th starter can be useful by sparing 5-7 starts before the All-Star Game, and maybe 2 or 3 more during that brutal August schedule. It might not be so important at the beginning of the season because starters are trying to build up but can be a good idea from May on.
All of this is to try to understand the impact of the current pitcher workload, now even more difficult to handle due to the pitch clock. Even though the Fish reached the postseason, let’s not forget how tough it was to navigate through the starting pitching over the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This is yet another reason to bring a back-of-the-rotation, innings-eater starter, someone who the team can rely on for 5-6 innings of competitive pitching.
Another side note: With Detroit taking Jack Flaherty home, the only proposed SP for the Marlins who still hasn’t signed yet is Michael Lorenzen, although my choice would still be Jake Odorizzi.
Comments are much appreciated.
Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
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