Hans Herrera

A couple of days ago, Ely presented his current projected 40-man and 26-man roster, naming his rotation after Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. This group will be challenged by Max Meyer, A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, George Soriano, and some non-roster invitees, mostly for the two last spots on that rotation. I completely agree with him. Several of those projected starters for next season are either on an innings limit (Pérez) or there is some sort of uncertainty about being able to manage a full-season load (Rogers, Meyer), especially those current relievers who will be stretched into starters. In addition to this, Max Scherzer talked about the potential consequences of the pitching clock. Nothing is scientifically proven and there should be more data before drawing such conclusions. This new rule has undoubtedly been a success in terms of speeding the game up, but we are still on the learning curve when it comes to disadvantages. Coincidence or not, Scherzer underwent back surgery on Friday and will miss part of the 2024 season as a result. Since the Marlins are not doing much this offseason, the exercise presented today is to evaluate how the number of rest days influenced the performance of the starting pitchers. This is because if the front office does not transact any of the current starters, it might look like the team has an excess of them, but is that really the case? Well, in short, it depends. The data following shows how was the overall performance of the 5 main starters last season (Sandy, Jesus, Braxton, Eddy, and Eury). Note: Rest days are considered full days in between starts, so if they pitch on a Sunday and again on a Friday, those are 4 resting days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Also, the first start of the season and those outings coming from the IL or after minor league reassignments are not included. Multi-inning “bulk reliever” outings are included. Sandy AlcantaraRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS41175.275331561103.9398.5551382.28144247094.7996.866+320.217551832.1894.72Jesus LuzardoRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4127261241791103.0092.885147773362490904.2195.576+524261192234.13902Braxton GarrettRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4947472365174.4080.425158170281477103.118076+628.2311292723.77851Edward CabreraRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4733.22917203924.5481.11510463522335774.308726+27952616.43660Eury PerezRest DaysGIPHERBBSOHRERAPitches (Avg)QS4527.1155112811.6586351043.24120125594.1277.526+2117241111.6481.51Some patterns show up here that maybe the Marlins can try to plan around. For example, Luzardo’s stats might look like suggesting he did much better on 4 days rest, but the truth is that he had some hot streaks (early June to late July, late August to end of the season) and some bad ones (late April, first half of August) regardless of the days of rest. During that last hot streak from late August to the end of September, he only had one 4-day rest start (that game in NY before the rain). All of the others were 5 or more resting days, and he was terrific. Now take Braxton Garrett. It seems like he has a better time when you give him 5 full days between starts, and those stats include that 4.1 IP, 11 ER outing vs. Atlanta, which was on a 5 days rest. Braxton threw more than 91 pitches only twice and never reached 100. Eury was truly babied, but his two worst outings came on 5 days rest: that 1-out, 6-ER in Atlanta, and 4-inning effort vs. the Yankees where he allowed 4 earned runs. Cabrera is also a mixed bag, but his numbers look slightly better when he has 5 days off. Maybe it is a good idea to bring a 6th starter—your 5 ½th starter—when there are those long stretches with consecutive games. For example, if planned, Meyer or now A.J. Puk can work some weeks out of the bullpen, but that week with no days off, they can start one game and give the other starters a good extra day of rest to manage the total load, especially needed at the end of the season. It is difficult to control when you have to deal with injuries and most weeks have 6 games in a row, but the strategy is to do it every time you have the chance. Here are some stretches with no days off next season: March 28 (Opening Day)–April 4 (8 games)April 12–24 (13 games)April 26–May 8 (13 games)June 11–19 (9 games)June 21–30 (10 games)July 19–28 (10 games)July 30–August 11 (13 games)August 23–Sept. 1 (10 games)Sept. 3–15 (13 games)With few off days in the second half of the season, that 5 ½th starter can be useful by sparing 5-7 starts before the All-Star Game, and maybe 2 or 3 more during that brutal August schedule. It might not be so important at the beginning of the season because starters are trying to build up but can be a good idea from May on. All of this is to try to understand the impact of the current pitcher workload, now even more difficult to handle due to the pitch clock. Even though the Fish reached the postseason, let’s not forget how tough it was to navigate through the starting pitching over the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This is yet another reason to bring a back-of-the-rotation, innings-eater starter, someone who the team can rely on for 5-6 innings of competitive pitching. Another side note: With Detroit taking Jack Flaherty home, the only proposed SP for the Marlins who still hasn’t signed yet is Michael Lorenzen, although my choice would still be Jake Odorizzi. https://fishonfirst.com/fanposts/marlins-offseason-needs-starting-pitcher-2023-24/Comments are much appreciated. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Interested in submitting your own FanPosts? Leave a comment on this article with your preferred email address and we will set things up! The last couple of days have been exciting after a mostly quiet and boring MLB offseason. We saw important players like Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo both traded to the Yankees, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jeimer Candelario signing multi-year deals, Craig Kimbrel going to the Orioles, and the Winter Meetings closing with the Rule 5 Draft, where the Marlins lost Nasim Nuñez to the Nationals. Next up: Shohei Ohtani? The good news is that Troy Johnston will remain with the organization, and it is also important to highlight the 5 players selected by the Marlins in the minor league phase of the draft without losing any, somehow restocking the upper levels of the system. But that also tells you something about the quality of the minor system. It seems like the newly built front office is more worried about restructuring the managerial and coaching positions rather than acquiring players and addressing what the team needs on the field. So far this offseason, they have hired as many FO officials as players added to the 40-man, and none of the latter group can be tagged as “impactful." Now allow me to replicate what Ely posted several weeks ago, where he impersonated Peter Bendix and shared his vision of the 2024 Opening Day roster. There is still a deep pool of players the Marlins can acquire, but the proposed players here will be based on all previous FanPosts. Areas where the lineup is weak will be addressed under the premise of “long-term solutions” widely advocated by Mr. Bendix ever since he joined the organization. Cleaning the RosterTransaction: RHP Sixto Sanchez, INF Jordan Groshans, and OF Peyton Burdick are designated for assignment. There is no indication that any of them will become regular MLB players in the short term and they have zero trade value. Hopefully, they will remain with the organization, but I have lost all hope in them. The roster sits now at 36 players. CatcherEarlier this offseason I thought the catcher was the most pressing need. The catching situation got even worse after non-tendering Stallings and the current 40-man roster only has Nick Fortes as a catcher. Is now obvious that the Fish needs to acquire not only one but at least two other mitts. Transaction: Sign C Yasmani Grandal to a one-year, $4M deal with escalating incentives for plate appearances ($500k when reaching 400 PAs) with a $6M club option for a second year and $500k buyout. Transaction: Trade RHP Eli Villalobos for C Ben Rortvedt (NYY). Transaction: Sign C Austin Hedges to a minor league deal with good incentives ($2M salary) if he makes the Opening Day team. My first option was Caratini, but he signed with the Astros. Plan A is that Grandal will hopefully provide better ABs throughout the season, serving occasionally as a DH and backup catcher, plus some experience at 1B. If Hedges makes the team, it means that neither Fortes nor Rortvedt showed any improvement so can be sent down trying to figure out their problems. If Rortvedt makes the team, then Fortes will end up in Jacksonville and Hedges will hopefully continue with the organization. After the Yankees pulled the Soto trade, they lost Higashioka and 4 arms, but they still have 5 catchers in their 40-man so makes sense to try replenishing the minor league pitchers. If Grandal doesn’t sign, then Gary Sánchez. If Hedges doesn't sign, then Andrew Knizner. If Rortvedt is not traded, then go after Tucker Barnhart. The roster has now 38 players after adding Grandal and Rortvedt. ShortstopPhoto by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty ImagesThere are some options in the current 40-man roster—Jon Berti, Jacob Amaya, and now Vidal Bruján—but none of them are regarded as everyday solutions at the position. Transaction: Trade LF Bryan De La Cruz and LHP Tanner Scott for SS Geraldo Perdomo and INF Tristin English (ARI). Perdomo will platoon(ish) the position with Berti when facing LHP. Will be somewhat costly, but in return the team gets a solid regular player with several years of control. I insist on the real possibility of acquiring Perdomo since the Diamondbacks have uber-prospect SS Jordan Lawlar almost ready to join the team. After having acquired Eduardo Rodriguez, they now need a replacement for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in LF. Perdomo and DLC had a similar seasons in terms of OPS+ and wRC+, and while the former offers solid defense at a premium position, the latter has more power and is entering his prime years. It is probably an overpay, but I’ll try to get it done. Plan B: Trade SS Joey Ortiz for LHP A.J. Puk. Plan C: Just promote Amaya and share duties with Berti. The first option will settle the position for at least the next 3 years, the other 2 options come with uncertainty but both Ortiz and Amaya have nothing else to prove in AAA and the Marlins cannot do any worse than last year at the position. The roster goes back to 37. Starting PitcherA reminder that the Marlins might be interested in an SP capable of 150+ innings throughout a season, especially if they decide to trade one of their own. Transaction: Sign RHP Jake Odorizzi to a one-year deal ($7M) with incentives based on innings pitched ($1M for every 30 innings pitched after 100 IP) and a mutual option for a second year at ($10M and a $1M buyout). I know, I know. Odorizzi is just coming from TJS, so it doesn’t make sense to consider him a “workhorse,” but before the surgery Odo threw a bit over 100 innings in both 2022 and 2021, at 4.40 and 4.21 ERA respectively. Between 2014 and 2019, he averaged 165 innings per season, so it is not crazy to expect some 120-140 innings of 4.50-ish ball. Just like it was expected from Cueto last year. Plan B: Sign RHP Michael Lorenzen to a 2-year, $22M deal. I just think he'll get a better deal somewhere else. Personal first options (Maeda, Miley) have already signed for other teams. The roster goes to 38 players. Other Positions to be CoveredSome transactions have been completed, it is now time to round the active roster. Transaction: Trade LHP Trevor Rogers for OF Jake Fraley and LHP Sam Moll (CIN). Transaction: Trade minor leaguer RHP Luis Vizcaino for UTIL Kyle Farmer (MIN). Transaction: Trade LHP Steven Okert for minor leaguer RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT). After trading DLC away, there is a need to cover the corner OF position. Cincinnati has an excess of OFs, so I'll bring a solid big leaguer who might be the odd man out in the mix. Farmer is a replacement-level utility player who can play all over the infield and is that RH bat needed now that the OF is completely left-handed. After acquiring Moll, Okert became expendable, so bringing back a minor leaguer with good potential was on the table. That brings the roster to 39 players. Invitations to Spring TrainingTransaction: Sign Ps Shintaro Fujinami, Eric Lauer, Lou Trivino, Trevor Gott, Alex Reyes, Brad Keller, and Jimmy Nelson; 1B/OF Trey Mancini, C/OF Eric Haase, OFs Jesse Winker, Kyle Lewis; old friend 3B/OF Brian Anderson; INFs Nick Ahmed and Hanser Alberto to minor league contracts with an invitation to spring training. Summarizing, acquisitions are Grandal, Rortvedt, Perdomo, Odorizzi, Moll, Fraley, and Farmer; minor leaguers Baum and Ashcraft. Conversely, subtractions: Sixto Sánchez, Groshans, Burdick, Rogers, Okert; minor leaguers Villalobos and Vizcaino. And here is what the active roster would look like, followed by the rest of the 40-man roster after all the proposed transactions: Starters (5): Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett, Cabrera and Odorizzi.Relievers (8): Puk (CL), Nardi, Moll, Brazoban, Soriano, Bender, Meyer, Chargois.Catchers (2): Fortes*, Grandal.Infielders (6): Bell, Arraez, Burger, Perdomo, Berti, Farmer.Outfielders (5): Fraley, Chisholm Jr., Sánchez, García, Bruján (out of options)*.*There are 2 roster spots that will be awarded at the end of Spring Training, with front competitors being Fortes vs. Rortvedt. Mancini, Lewis, and Anderson can be in the mix vs. Brujan, according to their performance. The rest of the 40-man: Pitchers (7): Weathers, Faucher, Hoeing, Jensen, Maldonado, Ort, Simpson.Position Players (5): Amaya, Edwards, Myers, Mesa Jr., and hopefully Rortvedt (out of options) or Fortes.60-day IL (1): Alcántara.As there is still one open spot on the roster, it will also be subject to performances during spring training with prospects Troy Johnston, Tristin English, Will Banfield, Patrick Monteverde, and Luarbert Arias as frontrunners, plus some of the aforementioned NRIs. I am also very intrigued by what Fujinami can do, and maybe Mel can “fix” him to become a late-inning weapon. A regular day lineup (vs. RHP) would look like: Arráez 2BBurger 3BJazz CFBell 1BFraley LFSanchez RFGrandal / Farmer / hopefully Avi García DHFortes CPerdomo SSIn the end, the Marlins will have a weaker pitching staff by losing Scott and Sandy, but a more consistent middle-of-the-order lineup. The extra budget to the payroll would be around $12-15M, depending on bonuses, which is reasonable to expect from Sherman. Can this team make it to the playoffs next year? Comments are much appreciated. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images