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  • FanPost: Rule 5 Draft Targets: Batters


    Hans Herrera

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    Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

    Despite some reports from major league scouts (Kevin Barral’s on X), Miami’s minor league player of the year Troy Johnston will probably be gone in two weeks after he was left unprotected for the coming Rule 5 draft to be held on Dec. 6th. The Marlins will still need good offensive players, preferably those who can play 1B and OF. Would be a plus if is a left-handed bat who can also come off the bench.

    After hearing what Mr. Bendix has said so far since joining the Front Office, and more importantly, Skip Schumaker’s interview with the Fish On First staff a couple of days ago, there is little doubt about this team will continue to have a limited budget, or as they call it “maximise the dollar value” or “this is just who we are."

    The current Miami Marlins 40-man roster has 37 players, which leaves room for scooping some hidden gems. Over the last five Rule 5 drafts (2021 was cancelled), Miami has picked up 6 players, and despite results hasn’t been exceptional, players like Elieser Hernandez or Zach Pop (acquired via trade right after drafted by ARI) outperformed everyone’s expectations. At the minor league phase of the draft, Miami has also selected decent players such as Dane Myers and Charles Leblanc.

    Let’s now have a look at a handful of offensive players who can make sense to be added to the roster. Looking at the numbers only, Johnston stands out as one of the best players unprotected, which leaves not many options for who can be more impactful than him in the upcoming season.

    Chris Williams (AAA, MIN)–Has an interesting profile with strengths and glaring weaknesses. Last season he was mainly at 1B (60 games) but also caught 215 innings (25 games) for St. Paul, where nailed 6 base-stealers out of 35 (17%). His stats suggest power (.259 ISO and 21 HR) and patience (13.4% BB), but also tons of K's (32.4%). Williams has nothing else to prove in AAA, helping with some depth in the already thin catching position.

    Tristin English (AAA, ARI)–Another not-young, versatile, right-handed power bat able to play 1B, corner OFs and has previous experience at 3B. English had a fine all-around season for Reno (.894 OPS/114 wRC+) with better-than-average walking and K rates. A back up plan for Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell in case of an injury but can also be a solid bench piece.

    Max Schuemann (AAA, OAK)–The highly offensive environment at the PCL sometimes makes you wonder if a player is legit, especially if a needy team like Oakland kept him the entire year in Las Vegas despite his good general numbers. Max had a nice .831 OPS/109 wRC+ while playing mainly CF and LF, he can play SS on a pinch.

    Tirso Ornelas (AAA, SD)–The Tijuana native is a left-handed bat who can play both OF corners. He is more or less the same type of player as DLC but with less power, though he’s still 23 and scouts grade him as 55 raw power prospect (20-80 scale). Ornelas makes good contact (.348 BABIP), has oppo power and good BB and K rates. He was named one of the Padres’ organisation All- Stars.

    Trenton Brooks (AAA, SF)–Another left-handed corner OF option who can play 1B. Brooks is the closest to Johnston you'll find at this year’s draft. He is already 28 years old and has played in AAA over the last 3 seasons, which might be a red flag. Both BB and K rates have been 14-18% since 2021 and this season launched 23 HR in 523 PAs between Las Vegas and Sacramento.


    There are some pitchers, both relievers and starters, who can be interesting additions to the team but improving the current lineup is the most important goal today. Nevertheless, next Friday’s post will cover some names for that matter.

    There is little indication that the Marlins will actually select any pieces for the major league roster, but with some open roster spots, at least one addition can make sense.

    Which target(s) looks better to join the big-league team? Maybe a name or two are missing here? Please comment!

    Photo courtesy of maxschuemann/Instagram

     

    Aside from Sandy Alcantara, which Marlins starting pitcher do you trust most?

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    I don’t think anybody within the organisation would admit that they just don’t believe in Troy Johnston becoming a regular ML player, but you can also say the same about, e.g., Sixto, Groshans or even Burdick… So why don’t give Troy at least the chance to prove himself?

     

    About Burger, well, you still have Bell playing there, with Arraez as second on the depth chart. Burger can or course play there as well. There aren’t many unprotected 3B out there and to be honest, I think if the Marlins pick one player during the Rule 5, it will probably be a pitcher. If they pick a second one, that might be a batter.

    After thoroughly reading all 5 scouting reports, the player with the higher floor right now is Tristin English. He can make an impact as soon as he gets regular playing time in the major leagues, though not saying he will hit 20 homers in his rookie season, but he has a chance of hitting 10-15. I think both he and Troy Johnston will be gone in this draft.

     

    After him, Ornelas is probably the one with the better projections since he is still 23 and will probably turn into an average corner OF with decent batting skills. He reminds me a bit of Alex Verdugo.

     

    All of the others have some kind of concern about being major leaguers on a consistent basis. Williams has a high K-rate, Schuemann projects more as a bench-utility player (still useful), and Brooks apparently lacks some fundamentals but there is the chance that he might be underrated.

     

    After picking up Jensen off waivers, there might be a chance the Fish select a field player instead of a pitcher.

    Right, it's inexplicable given the current roster situation. Even the biggest Johnston skeptics must admit his value exceeds the $100k Rule 5 Draft fee. If they are really so down on him, should've traded him before the protection deadline for something more substantial.


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