Hans Herrera

The Marlins pick 7th in the amateur draft next year (for college and HS players), but the pick 3rd for this coming Rule 5 draft players. I like Magdaleno

Burger is a HR hitter who doesn’t play defence and doesn’t get on base, but still I don’t understand. Club house leader, cheap, only real HR threat in the lineup… I don’t get it. I guess this is indeed a full rebuild. From now on, any player can be traded, even Sandy. Being a Marlins fan is hard indeed.

Even though Hays was not tendered, that O’Neill contract set more or less a reference for him. He might find a team offering him more than his projected $7M via arbitration. Summary: Hays won’t be a Marlin.

I think there is an additional “separator” between interpreting the data and executing your findings. You will have more chances of success if you correctly get what data is showing, but at the end, you need the right players for delivering those findings. This team is still missing 4-5 competent players from having a quality team.

Jansen just signed with the Rays for 1-year $8M. Far from what I proposed but maybe he could have signed a 2-years $12M and still be “on budget”. Yeah, well…

You are right about Adell and Williams. No need to add them to this roster. At least Williams is controllable until 2030, but is not worth giving away VMJ. While agree on half-rebuilds, I honestly think this team is not as far from contending as it appears on paper. Two 105 OPS+, one 115-120, and a closer, can be a 80-wins team. All that can be done with not a lot of resources… say $30M in free agents? The biggest problem this team has is the absurd frugality of the ownership.

I don’t understand very well the approach of all the trades as a whole. To me, looks like the main goal is to get the farm system stronger, but then also to acquire MLB players like Adell and Williams. So is it a full rebuild to get better prospects or is it to bring a better major league team? If it’s a rebuild, I’m OK with getting Adell because he’s still under control for several years, while getting rid of Berry once and for all. But the Williams trade is unnecessary, and it is too early to give up on VMJ.

I don't agree on Braxton and Luzardo because trading them now is definitely not selling them high. Both had significant injuries last season and Luzardo did not look good when he pitched. They have more questions than answers at the moment. The Marlins will get the most return from either Weathers or Cabrera, as they are cheaper, younger, and with more pure stuff. Garrett and Luzardo have higher a floor, but also more health concerns. If I have to pick one to trade, I'll go with Weathers because if Eddy doesn't pan out as a starter, he'd be a hell of a closer. Depending on how the season goes and the injury factor, I'd wait until a few starts from Eury Pérez to trade Luzardo. He should be on the trading block by June/July next season regardless but would be ideal if the Fish could get Eury going before that.

As good as Otto is with the glove, the Marlins are needing offence, BADLY, like you said. If I am able to acquire Smith from Texas, then I’d rather have X at SS and Norby at 2B instead of Lopez, who will be my first option out of the bench. At the end, it comes to acquire a player with a more rounded bat than Lopez, who has almost no power. He is fast, gets on base, and has a great glove: that is a bench player by current standards.

Lefty, making the minimum salary, with a 3.50ish ERA, 30% inherited runners score and 30%-K rate? That’ll do just fine. Give me two, please. Yes, on the go.

True, true, and true. But still, he also hit 7 HRs in 150 ABs, while drawing a good amount of BBs. He is far from being perfect, yet solid enough to keep in this team. Norby is less bad playing 2B than 3rd. The Fish needs to get a proper 3B, either trading for one or getting a cheap comeback-candidate (heaps of those, BTW), and if I had to pick one of those, I’d take Urshela. At least he is a solid defender with a .700-ish OPS.

Well, one can do as much with that limited budget (and I might end up being too optimistic, LOL!). Like I said, that is not a competitive team but for sure will be an improvement over this season… and maybe we get lucky along the way. Lopez: Yes, he is a great defender and had a plus second half, but at the end of the day, he is a bench player in any other team. I hope he proves me wrong next season. Burger is the only real power threat in the lineup, more or less making up for his low OBP. I don’t think you can get much for Bride. Norby? Why? Again, I try to be as realistic as it gets. With all those SP injured last season, Weathers is probably the starter who can get you the best return. Spend little, hope for health and player development. That’s what cheap Uncle Bruce will hope for.

It is that time of the year when we all want to play being Peter Bendix (or whatever he can do with cheap Uncle Bruce behind him). Last year, my offseason blueprint would have had some good results: At catcher, Grandal was injured for a while but still had a very decent season; Perdomo at SS also visited the IL but still had a solid bat and a very good glove; Jake Fraley was a below-average corner OF, more adequate as a 4th OF but still would have preferred him over DLC; Sam Moll had an excellent season in Cincy. Bad calls: Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Farmer, and some 40-man roster pieces like retaining Jacob Amaya. All in all, I think I would have assembled a competent team, even knowing that 2024 went terribly after only 9 games. Let me try again this year. First, I am going to start with what matters the most for constructing a roster: Payroll. Last year, the Marlins had a $97,5M payroll and as today's roster, are projecting $68M for 2025, data taken from Spotrac. Given the always-frugal approach of this team, and the latest FA experiences (García, Anderson, Cueto), I think Sherman will open around $10-12M for FAs this offseason. Let's be "optimistic" and say we have 12. Before starting, I think the current status of both the 40-man roster AND the farm system are not particularly strong, that said, there aren't many pieces to trade from nor is the team realistically interested in further weakening their minor leagues, in opposition to last offseason, when the team was focused on reaching the playoffs for consecutive seasons rather than the current rebuilding process. However, I believe this team might be closer to contention fundamentally due to the projected rotation and bullpen, if fully healthy. Making Space After the Rule 5 protection deadline, the current 40-man roster is full. If the Fish wants to improve last season's results they will need to add some key pieces, particularly on position players. Some placeholders had fair chances to succeed and didn't size their opportunities, so allow me to start the roster crunch. Transaction: Mike Baumann, Vidal Brujan, and Johnny Pereda are Designated for Assignment. MLB roster has now 37 players. Why? Baumann wasn't good for any of the 5 teams he pitched last season. Pereda had a 33 OPS+, and the only thing Bruján provided was defense versatility and this team needs a lot more than that. None of them will bring any return in a trade, although Bruján can net a low prospect from a non-contender. What is Needed Capable bats, especially if any of them can play 3B, SS, or OF, especially CF. Burger should move permanently to 1B/DH, Norby didn't look good at the hot corner, and we still don't know if we can trust Bride a full season at 3B, which he wasn't a magician in any case. Also, Edwards can fake it at SS but needs to improve a whole lot if he wants to stick in that position. The OF is more or less in the air for any player not named Jesús Sánchez. Despite terrific seasons from Faucher, Cronin, and some other bullpen arms, there is no shutdown stuff in the relieving corps. What is Available After the non-tender deadline, the Free Agent list for this offseason was finally complete. As mentioned above, I will assume $12M as a spending budget this offseason, to sit down in the $80M payroll zone. For reference, only the A's had a payroll below that figure during 2024. The top free agent at 3B is Alex Bregman, who is safe to say won't play for Miami next season. After him, there is no slam-dunk regular player on the list: Patrick Wisdom, Luis Urias, Gio Urshela, Yoan Moncada, Brandon Drury, and old friends Kiké Hernández and Donovan Solano follow Bregman, but none of them offer an attractive solution for handling the position. Since this team is planning to play Edwards at SS, the backup catcher is a bit more pressing right now. Luckily, there are a bunch of interesting names that can complement Fortes very well: Higashioka, Díaz, Grandal once again, Kelly, Knizner, Gary Sánchez, and Danny Jansen among others. If by any chance the Marlins look into the SS position - meaning, moving Edwards back to 2B and López down to a bench role -, Willy Adames highlights the free agent list, with Ha-Seong Kim behind him. None of that duo will come to South Florida. Moves Transaction: Sign C Danny Jansen for a two-year $7M contract ($3M in 2025 and $4M in 2026) with a $6M third-year club option or $500k buyout. Plan B: Sign C Carson Kelly to a one-year contract with a 2nd-year player option. Jansen had a subpar 2024, but he was well above-average offensive catcher for the three years prior. Transaction: Sign RHP José Leclerc to a 2-year $6M contract with a club option for a 3rd year. Also coming from a down year in 2024, Leclerc has closing experience and would almost immediately reclaim the role for the Fish. Transaction: Miami Marlins trade LHP Ryan Weathers to the Texas Rangers for 3B/SS Josh Smith and prospects RHP Skylar Hales and LHP Mitch Bratt. It is difficult to find a team with any kind of excess in either 3B or SS. Luckily, the Rangers have more or less settled the diamond with Lowe, Semien, Seager. and a fully recovered Josh Jung. That leaves the bench to Duran, Ornellas, and Smith, the latter having a terrific season replacing Jung. Mostly played 3B with mixed reviews defensively, but also played 49 games at SS. Feels a bit like an overpay, but I do like Smith's OBP, durability, and flexibility. The other two prospects won't have to be added to the 40-man roster, further strengthening the farm system. Transaction: Sign OF Austin Hays to a one-year $6M contract with a mutual option for a second year, $8M option. Plan B: Sign OF Dylan Carlson on a one-year $1.5M contract with incentives based on performance. Hays mashes lefties and offers a good corner OF glove. With so much uncertainty in the OF beyond Sánchez, Hays will provide some stability in LF and platoon with Jesús vs. LHP. These transactions will move the roster back to 40 players. There is still plenty of depth when it comes to Starters, even after parting ways with Weathers. All said and done, the active roster for next season would look like: Starters (5): Alcántara, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, and Bellozo/Meyer (Spring Training - to be replaced by Eury Pérez when ready from TJS) Relievers (8): Leclerc (CL), Faucher, Cronin, Nardi, Tinoco, Bender, Meyer/Bellozo, and Veneziano/Bachar (ST) Catchers (2): Jansen and Fortes Infielders (6): Burger, Norby, Smith, Edwards, López, and Bride Outfielders (5): Hays, Hill, and Sánchez, for sure plus two from the Conine/Stowers/Myers/Sanoja group (ST). Today, Conine, Sanoja, and Myers have the edge. A regular lineup would look like (vs. RHP): Edwards SS Smith 3B Norby 2B Sánchez RF Burger 1B Hays LF Bride DH Jansen C Hill CF This is probably not a .500-team but it is competitive enough to make a positive impact. I am aware that the toughest part is to get those FAs at the suggested price, but all of them can be lured by a non-contender team which might trade them off to a contender mid-season if they perform well. Also, and more importantly, the farm system wasn't touched. Let me know what you think!

Not a big fan of Severino either, almost never knew when the ball was a home run or just another flyball. I'm down for some names floated here: back to Waltz, Sielaff is amazing, Sacco deserves a shot, and I would also consider Scott Kornberg from Jacksonville, he's great.

I realistically see getting Straw, but has to come with a really good prospect. Maybe a bullpen arm (Cleveland bullpen is really stacked)? Also, I’m due to my “offseason blueprint” but coming soon!

I hope I'm wrong, though.

Why do I have this feeling that the new manager will be none of the names that have been mentioned this offseason? Someone like, for example, Fredi Gonzalez?

This is a great article and everything is actually well pointed. In the context that he has a full season in AAA, and probably has little to nothing to show at that level, the burning question is: Are the Marlins willing to find out straightaway if he’s going to perform at the Major League level or will the give him a Johnston-type treatment (that is, leave him forever at AAA until “he figures it out”)?

I mostly agree with you. Here is my roster (so far): Rotation: Same, no comments. Bullpen: Nardi, Faucher, Cronin, Tinoco, Bender, Meyer, Oller, McMillon Comment: I think Oller has more "pure stuff" than Curry (himself a fine SP depth option). Also, with that Slider, Meyer must be in the bullpen. But I think the team should spend some money on at least 2 veteran arms. Starting Lineup: Fortes, De Los Santos, Norby, Burger, Edwards, Conine, Hill, Sánchez, DH: Bride/Ramírez Comment: I don't like improvising with Norby at 3rd, and I don't think 2nd-half López will sustain a whole season. With his solid showcase, Conine has the edge over both Stowers and Myers, and I like better Hill in CF than Dane but only because his glove outweighs the offense, which is pretty similar. Bride and Ramírez should compete for DH, but between them and Ramírez, there should be plenty of ABs for all. Bench: Ramírez/Bride (whoever doesn't DH), Myers, López, Stowers Comment: I love Sanoja, he is my favorite prospect in the system. I do think that if he has a great Spring Training, he can take a spot from either Stowers, Conine, or even Myers. He can play SS, which no player in this team can do other than X and maybe López. But he didn't do THAT well during his cup of coffee, so as of today, he is the odd man out. Just missed: Curry, Bellozo, Bachar, Veneziano, Sanoja, and Banfield I do agree that the Fish should pursue a veteran C and maybe a glove-first middle infielder for depth.

This is a solid point of view that should encourage the FO to at least consider a different approach rather than wish for the best. More quality and depth are needed in the ML team, period. As the current 40-man is appointed, there are 7-8 capable arms who can handle start games. Next season, I think a 6-man rotation should be used every time possible. This is extremely difficult to accomplish, with the downside of having one less bullpen arm, but for the sake of diminishing the load of an entire season, this shouldn't be the worst idea. Maybe begin the season with whoever 5 are healthy and when Eury is back, just ride along with 6 starters for the rest of the year. This won't solve the defense problem at all, but that's another story.

Can it get any worse, though? As bad as this team looked, it is still way far from being the White Sox. The performance of this team depends way too much on their pitching staff, and now with Mel gone, it will be a bit more challenging to perform as expected from the group. About the arbitration class: Fortes still has strong defensive metrics: Is top 10 in Blocks above average, middle of the pack in the rest of the defensive metrics, durable, young, and still very cheap. He is definitely worth 1,6M, but maybe not for a starting catcher. There is not a single FA Catcher this offseason for the Marlins to target, so they will most probably stick with him and once again, hope for the best. I'm biased about Eddy Cabrera. I think he has tremendous stuff, but his mental game is still under development. With all the injuries this team had this season, I highly doubt they will let go of the pitcher who led this team in GS, IP, and SO (and also Losses and BBs), who BTW had a solid second half when he came back from the injury (July 7th- End of season): 15 GS, 75 IP, 4.32 ERA. Of those 15 starts, 3 were really ugly: 20 ER in 9.2 IP combined; the other 12 starts?: 65.1 IP with 2.20 ERA. Inconsistent? Yes, but I'd keep him in a heartbeat. His future might be in the bullpen, but even so, he should be a very valuable asset. I do think there is a fair chance he can be traded this winter IF the return is appealing. Now Jeezy: He is a platoon bat but on the more frequent side. He is also a 97 OPS+ / 99 wRC+ player, which means pretty much an average player. The rest of the OFs on the roster are Stowers, Conine, Myers, Hill, and Mesa Jr... READ: A group of unproven hitters (1083 PA combined, Hill accounting for almost half of them) who are the same age or older than Jesús (except for Mesa Jr.) with the same or less upside. Getting rid of him should not be the way to go UNLESS a trade comes at your door and you cannot say no.

Then let's roughly break down the Payroll for 2025: 17M for Sandy 17M for Avi García Around 18M on the arbitration class (6 players) mentioned in this article The rest of the active roster (18 players) is around 16M The rest of the 40-man (14 players) say is 7M (exaggerating) That yields a total of 75M. Say I am forgetting something and is 80M. For reference, the teams with the lowest projected payrolls this season were OAK (63M), PIT (85M), and TB (89M). The Fish is the next-lowest with a 98M payroll in 2024. Will this team spend 20M on free agents this season? Maybe 10M getting some bullpen arms? Perhaps only 5M? How about nothing?

IMO, the names standing out the most are Santana, Canha, and any of the Catchers: Gomes, Díaz, Grandal, or Hedges. The Marlins should use a better glove in 3B and/or 1B, as well as a mentor backup helping Fortes. If one is to be picked, I'll probably go with Carlos Santana, who's still a great defender, gets on base regularly, and has pop. I think Martínez, Turner, Heyward, and Peralta might be a bit out of the price tag this cheap FO is willing to spend for any of them.

#GivePipeAChance

I don't think is all a bad idea: You can also think of Santana, Canha, Solano, Abreu, Grandal, Elias Diaz, Yan Gomes, Hedges, Peralta, Hicks, J.D. Martinez, even Justin Turner... They all somehow fit -better or worse- in the projected next season's roster.