Ely Sussman

Anderson's offensive production has somehow been even worse than it was in 2023 and he's making less contact than ever before. The Miami Marlins needed to shake things up at shortstop. You cannot fault them for trying to. They were incredibly fortunate to experience so much team success in 2023 with the triumvirate of Joey Wendle, Jon Berti and Garrett Hampson, who combined for replacement-level production at the position. The Marlins reallocated the $5M-ish that Berti and Hampson were due to make this season toward free agent Tim Anderson. Classic "buy low" scenario. An excellent hitter in the not-too-distant past, Anderson's value had cratered. From June-August 2022—in between injured list stints—Anderson slashed .249/.287/.290 (65 wRC+) with no home runs. It was more of the same throughout the 2023 campaign, and the underlying data (per Baseball Savant) was just as discouraging as his surface-level numbers: That being said, the 2023-24 offseason did not present the Marlins with any truly enticing alternatives. The MLB free agent class was bereft of reliable, well-rounded shortstops. They reportedly pursued Isiah Kiner-Falefa in earnest, but relented when his camp insisted on two guaranteed years. The Toronto Blue Jays won the bidding by paying him $15M (tripled what Anderson would ultimately cost). "Everything that we've heard about Tim Anderson, he sounds like a really great guy, honestly," Peter Bendix said once the signing was finalized.. "He sounds like a really good player. He sounds like somebody who a change of scenery is going to help, a little bit of a reset is going to help...We did extensive research into his health and his conditions, into what we expect from him this year. I do think that he is very likely to have a much better season this year." Whatever the Marlins saw from Anderson during spring training made them comfortable trading Berti on the eve of Opening Day. That may have been in their plans regardless considering the combination of prospects being offered and the salary-relief component, but it cleared the runway for the 30-year-old newcomer to be their everyday starter at SS. They wouldn't have done that if he was bound to fail. Outside of brief injury (left thumb sprain) and illness absences, TA has been a constant in the Marlins lineup (starting 31 of the first 37 games). He is botching the opportunity to rejuvenate his career by continuing to deteriorate at the plate. Anderson's OPS now begins with a "4" following an 0-for-4 effort on Monday. He's nearly a month removed from his last multi-hit game. Zero homers from him and only a couple balls that would've had a chance to clear the fence even if pulled straight down the line. Particularly in tiny samples, awfulness is usually accompanied by unluckiness, but not in this case: his actual and expected weighted on-base averages (.224 wOBA and .228 xwOBA) are almost identical. These are the worst hitters in the majors with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. Everybody with a sub-60 wRC+ is getting bogged down by struggles on balls in play with a BABIP below the current MLB average of .287...except for Tim Anderson. He could recover to his extraordinary career mark of a .347 BABIP and still be less effective than Marlins shortstops were last year. It's bleak. Anderson is striking out at a 30% rate, a dramatic spike from each of his previous five seasons and on pace to be a career high. His K's are up because he is whiffing a lot more, especially when chasing pitches outside the strike zone. The most glaring difference I see between the old TA and the current TA is how he's failing to capitalize on advantageous counts. Anderson has a lifetime .335/.436/.524 slash line when he's ahead in the count. That plummeted to .244/.383/.322 in 2023. This year, he is appallingly bad in these situations, slashing .148/.303/.185. So to be clear, when there are more balls on him than strikes, he is somehow doing worse than usual. Let's watch a few recent examples: UldyNGFfVjBZQUhRPT1fRHdCWFVWeFhWRkVBQVFBS1VRQUFWUTREQUFOV0JRUUFVMVpVVVZjQ0JWVUVWQXRl.mp4 b25lTURfVjBZQUhRPT1fVndOV0FWVlNYd1lBRDFzQkFBQUFBZ1JmQUFBSFZGWUFCRnhRVVF0WFVBWUFDUU5S.mp4 QVlNOUtfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdNRUFGRlZCMVFBQzFvR1V3QUFCbGNBQUZrTlUxZ0FCUUZUQVZJQUJnQlNVVkFG.mp4 With Anderson in these 3-1 counts, he got a 95 mph fastball in the dirt, an 88 mph fastball on the outside corner and a 92 mph fastball down the dick. The results were a whiff, a weak grounder and another weak grounder. Anderson used to be a great fastball hitter. That has gradually changed and MLB pitchers are now exploiting this new reality. They are constantly challenging him with their best velo to get back into the count, throwing 71.2% fastballs when Anderson is ahead. Over the previous half-decade, that rate hovered in the low 60s. Historically, these are the pitches that Anderson has been hammering. In 2024, though, he has "barreled" only one ball as defined by Statcast. What once were occasional extra-base hits are instead leading to extra outs. Anderson must recognize this pattern and adjust accordingly. There are a few MLB teams who would have designated Anderson for assignment by now, depending on their urgency to win and fallback options at the shortstop position. There are many others who would have at least reduced his playing time. The Marlins, however, might as well stay the course. Wins and losses have quickly become irrelevant. The only teammate who was starting to breathe down Anderson's neck was Vidal Bruján, but the departure of Luis Arraez allows Bruján to get regular reps at second base. Anderson is physically fit and there are no lingering issues with his legs from his White Sox days. It's a matter of his approach and/or mechanics. Hopefully, the Marlins coaching staff and those close to him help him address it, otherwise his future as a major league player beyond this season is murky at best. View full article

Welcome to FOF's 37th Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. Jake Burger is back from a 20-game absence and Roddery Muñoz faces his biggest test yet. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: INF Jake Burger reinstated from the 10-day injured list; INF Jonah Bride optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Kevin Barral will be writing the game recap.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

I like all of these to varying degrees. Would surprise me if there's an opportunity to get that much value in return for De La Cruz, but if so, it's an easy call because of those internal corner OF alternatives, as you pointed out. Not seeing Bell as a fit for the Brewers. They already got Rhys Hoskins and don't want to fully clog their DH spot (William Contreras usually goes there when he isn't catching).

During Sunday's State of the Fish call-in show, Ely Sussman shares his theory regarding why the Marlins traded Luis Arraez so early in the season and for a relatively light return. View full video

Marlins news roundup for 5/6/24 On Sunday, Sixto Sánchez had his best start of the season so far, but that isn't saying much (4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 65 pitches/38 strikes). Nick Gordon doubled his wRC+ in a single afternoon, from 39 to 76. Right-hander Eli Villalobos pitched a scoreless ninth inning in his major league debut. The Marlins won, 12-3. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 5-2. OF Victor Mesa Jr. went 1-for-2 with two walks and a stolen base. Double-A Pensacola won, 9-1. RHP Paul Campbell (6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 70 pitches/49 strikes) lowered his ERA to 1.88 and RHP Zach McCambley made his return from the injured list. High-A Beloit won, 3-2. 1B Torin Montgomery had the walk-off RBI single. Low-A Jupiter won, 4-0. Jesús Luzardo (5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 67 pitches/46 pitches) was predictably very effective against such young competition. He could be back in the Marlins rotation this coming weekend, if not the week of May 13 at the latest. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 Jake Burger (left intercostal muscle strain) will be reinstated from the IL today. The Marlins went 7-13 without him on the roster. Optioning Otto Lopez seems to be the most likely corresponding move. Other moves to consider are optioning Jonah Bride or designating Emmanuel Rivera for assignment (can't be slugging .233 as a corner infielder). 🔷 Listen back to Sunday's State of the Fish call-in show. Understandably, much of the conversation focused on the Luis Arraez trade. I have come to the conclusion that the Marlins lacked faith in Arraez recapturing his 2023 form or even playing up to his career norms, trading him now in fear that his value would've dipped even lower come July. We'll just have to wait and see how that stance ages. A demoralizing decision, regardless. 🔷 Through 11 Marlins series, @PHeyser08 (aka Baby Seal) has moved into a tie for the Prediction Time lead. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 RHP Noble Meyer enjoyed his best start of the season on Saturday, striking out more than half of the batters he faced and retiring 14 of 17 overall. “If I could keep what I did tonight the rest of the season, that'd be perfect," he told MLB Pipeline. 🔷 With the anniversary of Al Leiter's no-hitter approaching this weekend, Fish on the Farm's Alex Carver is giving away an unripped ticket stub signed by Leiter himself. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE tonight from 9:00-10:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, unfortunately for the Fish, Shohei Ohtani is at the peak of his powers at the plate. After blasting two more homers on Sunday, he is leading the sport in numerous offensive categories, including hits and wRC+. The Red Sox snapped the Twins' 12-game winning streak. The best record in the majors now belongs to the Phillies (24-11). 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Roddery Muñoz) visit the Dodgers (RHP Walker Buehler). It will be Buehler's first major league appearance in nearly two years. The Marlins have a 33.7% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: FCL Marlins vs. FCL Marlins, 12:00 p.m. ET (Braxton Garrett rehab start) Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Called up prior to Sunday's game, Marlins right-hander Eli Villalobos describes pitching the ninth inning against the Oakland Athletics in his major league debut and finishing off the victory with a strikeout. View full video

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Welcome to FOF's 36th Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. The Marlins are in danger of being swept in a series for the fourth time already. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: RHP Eli Villalobos selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; RHP Darren McCaughan designated for assignment. Louis Addeo-Weiss will be writing the game recap.

That is a perfectly defensible stance. I would hate to see it as somebody who believes these teams should have a moral obligation to put forth a mildly entertaining product even in seasons when competitiveness is unrealistic. But yes, in the pursuit of eventually arriving at a place where the Marlins are consistently good, you optimize your chances of that by acquiring as much young, inexpensive talent as possible, beginning now.

Sherman is dooming the team with his complacency. He is, from everything I've seen, a nice man who enjoys baseball, but he's comfortable collecting revenue-sharing checks and doesn't have the ambition to make this franchise greater than it was when he arrived. Especially in the aftermath of these trades, I get complaints from fans who want Sherman's feet held to the fire by the media, as if that would fix this. No, unfortunately that will not change his priorities.

Arraez made the best possible first impression on his new team, recording hits in four straight at-bats on Saturday to begin his Padres tenure. Hours after consummating a blockbuster trade with each other on Saturday morning, the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres were involved in the day's two most lopsided MLB games. In Oakland, the Marlins surrendered 20 runs to a typically feeble Athletics lineup, outclassed so thoroughly that they used a position player to pitch the final frame. In Arizona, Luis Arraez enjoyed an unprecedented Padres debut during a wire-to-wire 13-1 victory. It is unusual for a player to be traded and inserted into his new club's starting lineup on the same day—most need a day in between to get fully acclimated to their surroundings. Nobody was as disappointed by Arraez's eagerness to play as Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Top of the first inning, on the second pitch he saw as a Padre, Arraez ripped an inside fastball into the right-field corner for a standup double (he scored later in the inning). In the third, he served a fastball above the strike zone to left field for a single. In the fourth, he stepped to the plate with runners on the corners and two outs. In classic Arraez fashion, he stayed back on a changeup tailing away from him and gently lined it to left for a run-scoring single. Then in the seventh, Pfaadt was ahead in the count, 1-2. He tried getting Arraez to swing underneath a fastball at the letters. It resulted in a bloop single. ff5b18f1-60f00cff-c36dddd1-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 With the game virtually decided already, Diamondbacks relievers had success against Arraez, inducing a lineout to center in the seventh and a groundout to shortstop in the ninth. He still finished the night 4-for-6, raising his batting average to .315, which ranks eighth among National League qualifiers. He also became the first player ever to record four hits in his Padres debut. None of the minor leaguers that the Marlins acquired in exchange for Arraez have been activated yet. Expect OF Dillon Head (Low-A Jupiter), OF Jakob Marsee (Double-A Pensacola) and 1B Nathan Martorella (Pensacola) to make their organizational debuts on Tuesday. View full article

Listen to what the Marlins president of baseball operations said about Arraez and the prospects his team received in return during a virtual press conference. In the aftermath of Saturday's Luis Arraez trade, Miami Marlins POBO Peter Bendix took questions from local and national media. SuperSubs can find a complete audio recording of the 18-minute press conference embedded below. View full article

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Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article