Ely Sussman

The FCL Marlins have won nearly three-quarters of their games this season, leaning heavily on young Dominican arms. I'll spit it out immediately in case it isn't apparent to everybody: there's close to zero correlation between a minor league affiliate's overall stats and the quality of MLB talent on the affiliate's roster. That is particularly true midway through a rookie ball team's abbreviated season. Numerous factors can skew the numbers over such a small, strange sample. With that being said, the 2024 Florida Complex League Marlins have earned a shoutout. Entering Monday, the FCL Marlins (to be referred to as FCLM for the rest of this article) are 24-9. Their .727 winning percentage ranks first among all domestic MiLB affiliates. That success is largely attributable to foreign-born arms who the Marlins have found via international free agency in recent years. Dominican RHP Juan De La Cruz is Fish On First's #19 Marlins prospect. He got sent back to the complex league despite a long stint at Low-A in 2023. This season, De La Cruz has posted a 1.20 earned run average in his team-leading 30 innings pitched, limiting opponents to three hits or fewer in each of his seven starts. De La Cruz throws a low-90s fastball, a mid-70s curveball and an occasional mid-80s changeup which has improved, helping him limit left-handed batters to three hits in 37 at-bats against him (.081 BAA). RHP Walin Castillo has deservedly matriculated to Low-A Jupiter already. He allowed only one earned run and 13 baserunners (hits, walks and HBPs combined) in his 23 FCLM innings. Signed in June 2022, Castillo is the same age as De La Cruz (this is his age-19 season). His fastball is a tick slower, but possesses nasty armside run. Plenty of room to add onto his slender 6'3" frame. emWiaw-XeiPxxr7R.mp4 Fellow Dominican LHP Luis Cesar is more physically mature. The 20-year-old has sliced his walk rate in half, from 16.5% in his stateside debut to 8.2% this summer. His MiLB groundball rate is over 60% in parts of three seasons (56.2 GB% in 2024). On a roster that's overwhelming populated by international signees, RHP Colson Lawrence leads FCLM with 11 appearances. The Alabama native was Miami's 13th-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Every complex league club benefits from the contributions of rehabbing big leaguers. Braxton Garrett and A.J. Puk have suited up and excelled for FCLM, but only for one game apiece. By Baseball-Reference's calculation of pitchers' average age, FCLM has had the third-youngest pitching staff in the league (20.1 years old). They lead the FCL in strikeouts (350) and WHIP (1.11), and in terms of overall run prevention, they're lapping the competition: There have been encouraging developments on the position player side as well. The youngest FCLM hitter, Venezuelan OF Andrés Valor (FOF #15 prospect), is slashing .289/.362/.446 while manning center field practically every game. Repeating the FCL, 1B Julio Henriquez has posted a .496 on-base percentage, second-highest among league qualifiers. The other hitter getting daily reps is switch-hitting SS Fabian López. He's been far less successful at the plate (.231/.263/.346 slash line), particularly against right-handers. However, López has excellent defensive potential and I'm going to take an educated guess that he's been helping out these pitchers by making more impactful plays at shortstop than his peers. The FCLM defense has allowed a .247 BABIP—that's gotta be more than just good luck, right? Beginning with a doubleheader on Monday, FCLM is scheduled to play 23 more regular season games. The club holds a commanding eight-game lead in the FCL East division. View full article

The timing of the Arraez trade was an anomaly. I don't think the May improvement convinced them of anything. It's just very difficult to get a deal done so early in the season. I think I've commented about this before: contenders prefer to wait for more sellers to declare themselves. They aren't going to limit themselves to shopping for Marlins/White Sox/Rockies players when there will inevitably be more veteran players to choose from a month from now.

Depends on your definition of "rational," but July 21 is the magic date that Meyer can return while guaranteeing that his free agency gets pushed back a full year. Service time manipulation.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

De La Cruz matched a season high with seven total bases on Friday. Although comfortably leading the AL West division, the Mariners covet a bat like his. Bryan De La Cruz chose a convenient time to have one of his best all-around games of the season. By win probability added, Friday was his third-most impactful day as a hitter. De La Cruz's solo home run in the sixth inning got the Miami Marlins on the scoreboard (he's now on pace for 30 homers in 2024). His leadoff single in the ninth inning nearly set up the game-winning run, though it would ultimately take 10 innings for the Marlins to walk it off again. He also doubled and made a challenging (by his standards) running catch in left field. De La Cruz emerged as an everyday player in 2023, but he's been even more consistent through the first half of his age-27 campaign to make Marlins games occasionally watchable in the midst of a doomed season. 99932674-82c75b33-eefa60c0-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Convenient timing because the Marlins were hosting the American West-leading Seattle Mariners. Seeking their first division title in 23 years, the Mariners are certain to be buyers leading up to the MLB trade deadline. They'll be shopping for bats, specifically ones like DLC's. "The Mariners plan to be aggressive with their push for some kind of offensive addition," The Athletic reported on Thursday. Despite a 44-34 record, they rank 25th in Major League Baseball in runs scored. De La Cruz would address position(s) of need for Seattle. Mitch Garver, who has served as the primary designated hitter for the Mariners this season, has the lowest batting average in MLB among players with 200-plus at-bats. Garver's struggles have come against right-handed pitching (.158 BA and 77 wRC+). De La Cruz is a righty as well, but he's been largely immune to the platoon disadvantage during his career. Seattle's right-handed corner outfielders are similarly underwhelming. They reunited with Mitch Haniger this past offseason in a bad contract swap. Although Haniger has been uncharacteristically durable in 2024, the trade has done nothing to rejuvenate his bat—the 33-year-old has performed far below replacement level (-0.8 fWAR), on pace for a career-low slugging percentage. Earlier this month, the Mariners picked Victor Robles off the scrap heap to be their part-time left fielder. He's slashing .353/.421/.471 so far, but his 20 most recent plate appearances should not carry as much weight as the 1,000 that came before it. I doubt Robles' presence would block them from acquiring a bonafide run producer. Beyond his current numbers, De La Cruz will be appealing on the trade market due to his affordability and club control. He'll only be arbitration-eligible for the first time next year and he's controllable through the 2027 season. That also gives the Marlins leverage: there is no urgency for them to trade him unless they're thrilled with the return. DLC's expected offensive stats (.268 xBA and .346 xwOBA) are even better than his actual ones (.252 BA and .323 wOBA), so they ought to be soliciting offers that account for some positive regression. The Athletic's reporting mentions third baseman Ben Williamson as a prospect "on people's radars" when it comes to Seattle trade chips. The 23-year-old has a 105 wRC+ at the Double-A level, fueled by a 14.4% walk rate. His presence would be welcome in an organization with a long-term opening at the hot corner and a dearth of disciplined hitters. In addition to Williamson, I would expect the Marlins to pursue teenage shortstops Tai Peete and Dawel Joseph. Peete was Seattle's third selection (30th overall pick) in the 2023 MLB Draft, while Joseph received the highest signing bonus in their 2024 international free agent class. They're currently assigned to Low-A and the Dominican Summer League, respectively. Peete would immediately become Miami's top shortstop prospect and a top-10 overall player in their farm system. e6f3d76e-464e-4204-9026-de2de47321f5.mp4 If De La Cruz maintains his 2024 performance for another month and the Mariners continue to struggle to score runs, I think a Peete/Williamson package is the best-case scenario for what Miami could get from Seattle. A Joseph/Williamson pairing should be the bare minimum, and that's contingent on Joseph heating up after a sluggish start to his professional career. Would that be enough for you to pull the trigger? View full article

This strikes me as the most realistic of your proposals. Dodgers have both a short-term and long-term fit for Garrett.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Lewis would certainly be off limits in the midst of a season. Perhaps there is something creative to be done in the offseason, but he's indispensable to what they're doing right now.

It's been impressive how many of them have raised their prospect stock in only half a season. Incredible combo of performance and health. Brooks and De La Cruz are both overqualified for promotions, but they're both genuinely blocked! Wonderful "problem" to have.

Flipped Fish: Marlins 🔄 Mariners edition

He'll miss a second start this weekend, unfortunately. Should be back in action after that.

Offishial News for 6/20/24 On Wednesday, the Cardinals had an impromptu bullpen day after Kyle Gibson was scratched with back tightness. Yonny Chirinos was adequate in his Marlins debut, enough to stick around for at least one more start. Bryan De La Cruz led off the game with his team-leading 13th home run. Tanner Scott pitched a scoreless inning for the third straight day, fully turning the page on his blown save last week. Otto Lopez sealed the victory with a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Marlins won, 4-3. Seven of Miami's 14 home wins this season have been walk-offs. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville Edward Cabrera made his first rehab start on the way back from his shoulder impingement (3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 WP, 49 pitches/30 strikes). Cabrera's velocity was normal and he used all of his pitches. Double-A Pensacola lost, 9-1. LHP Adam Laskey's recent hot streak came to an abrupt end (3.0 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 57 pitches/37 strikes). The Blue Wahoos drew nine walks, but failed to capitalize on them. High-A Beloit won, 2-0. A scoreless albeit inefficient start for LHP Emmett Olson (4.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 96 pitches/61 strikes). Low-A Jupiter lost, 2-0. OF Kemp Alderman continues to struggle since coming off the injured list, slashing .118/.111/.118 with three errors committed in five games. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 The Marlins acquired C Ali Sánchez from the Cubs in exchange for cash. This will be the sixth different MLB organization that the 27-year-old has played for. Sánchez has been assigned to Jacksonville. Weird fit on the surface as I don't foresee him getting consistent playing time (unless there's an injury that we are not privy to). 🔷 Through 24 Marlins series, Daniel Rodriguez remains in sole possession of first place atop the Prediction Time leaderboard. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 RHP Jacob Miller is ready to be bumped up from High-A to Double-A, per MLB Pipeline. Miller is still just 20 years old, but he's had an effective, consistent season through 11 starts. 🔷 Kiley McDaniel of ESPN expects the Marlins to select a college position player with their first-round draft pick, but "they are also eyeing high school position players as backup/underslot options if things don't go to plan here." McDaniel mentions prep hitters Carter Johnson, Tyson Lewis, Sawyer Farr and P.J. Morlando as options for Miami's later picks. 🔷 On this day 10 years ago, Marcell Ozuna had what I'd consider the second-most memorable outfield assist in Marlins history, sealing a 3-2 win over the Mets by throwing out Kirk Nieuwenhuis at home plate. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Mets' seven-game winning streak was finally snapped. Sean Murphy (4-for-4, 2 HR) busted out of his season-long slump and MLB ERA leader Reynaldo López shoved five more scoreless innings. Tanner Bibee set a career high with 12 strikeouts (10 of them swinging). Phase 1 of MLB All-Star voting remains open through June 27. Vote up to five times per day. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville at Memphis, 8:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola vs. Chattanooga, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter vs. Clearwater, 6:30 p.m. ET FCL Marlins vs. FCL Mets, 12:00 p.m. ET DSL Marlins vs. DSL Mets Blue, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami at DSL Mets Orange, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

In case you haven't seen it by now...

He did it just once before in early 2021, but that included an additional plate appearance and he was gifted a HBP. Also an extra-inning game.

Right, if he's making the team incrementally more watchable and getting along well in the clubhouse, that's still beneficial. Spend the rest of the season evaluating him for a 2025 role (with a mutual understanding that he isn't quite everyday shortstop material anymore).

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Offishial News for 6/19/24 Another chaotic game on Tuesday. The Cardinals crushed Roddery Muñoz (4.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 76 pitches/49 strikes), but the bullpen behind him was outstanding, allowing only one unearned run in six innings of work. Jesús Sánchez had his second three-hit game of the season and all three were hammered (108+ mph exit velocities). Vidal Bruján came through in the 10th inning with a pinch-hit, walk-off RBI single. The Marlins won, 9-8. One quarter of their total victories this season have been walk-offs. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 7-4. Bryan Hoeing made a one-inning rehab appearance. INF Xavier Edwards remains with the team and on their active roster, but he has missed four straight games. Double-A Pensacola lost, 4-2. C Joe Mack hit his 12th home run, matching his total from the 2021-2023 MiLB seasons combined. High-A Beloit won, 7-4. INF Josh Zamora went 4-for-5. Low-A Jupiter lost, 11-4. The Hammerheads committed six errors plus two passed balls. Nice to see RHP Elvis Alvarado begin a rehab assignment. His fastball velocity averaged 99 mph in his first appearance. FCL Marlins lost, 4-3. Four stolen bases for OF José Gerardo (13 steals in 14 attempts in 2024). Unfortunately, it's impossible to look past his strikeout issues. Gerardo has K'd in all 22 of his games this season with a 48.2 K% overall despite repeating the level he played at last summer. DSL Marlins led 7-0 before their game was suspended in the fifth inning. DSL Miami won, 11-7. First career three-hit day for C/1B Kevin Novoa. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 As first reported by Fish On First, Marlins OF Dillon Head is getting season-ending surgery on his left hip. Head was injured when the Fish acquired him on May 4, though clearly, the team did not expect this outcome. The 19-year-old had been playing rehab games two weeks ago before being shut down. Overall, he has appeared in only five MiLB games since the trade. Undergoing the procedure now will allow him to resume baseball activities by October and experience a normal offseason. 🔷 PGHconcepts proposes a "uniform refresh" for the Marlins. Of course it includes teal. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Willie Mays died at the age of 93. Mays was irrefutably one of the best baseball players ever, the epitome of a five-tool player. His all-around excellence and enthusiasm was crucial to the sport's growth in the 1950s and 1960s. A favorable check swing call extended the Dodgers' ninth-inning rally in Colorado. Teoscar Hernández capitalized with a game-winning three-run homer. The Mets chipped away at a 6-2 deficit and eventually overtook the slumping Rangers for their seventh consecutive win. White Sox rookie RHP Jonathan Cannon came one out shy of pitching a shutout against the Astros. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Yonny Chirinos) conclude their series against the Cardinals (RHP Kyle Gibson). Chirinos will be the 12th different starting pitcher used by Miami this season. Designating Kent Emanuel for assignment seems to be the likely corresponding roster move. The Marlins have a 49.3% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 12:40 p.m. 🔷 Following the game, Loud Miami Fan will be selecting somebody to win this Dane Myers autographed 2024 Topps Series 1 35th anniversary card. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville at Memphis, 8:05 p.m. ET (Edward Cabrera rehab start) Double-A Pensacola vs. Chattanooga, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Lansing, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter vs. Clearwater, 6:30 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article