Ely Sussman

Cabrera's pitch usage is unique among MLB starting pitchers. So far in 2024, it's working for him. Since he first stepped foot on a major league mound in 2021, Edward Cabrera's pitch usage has been unconventional. Cabrera had been widely regarded as one of the Miami Marlins' top prospects, with some of that hype rooted in his elite fastball velocity. He was capable of generating high-90s heat with ease and sustaining that velo throughout his starts. It was only natural to compare him to the team's ace, fellow hard-throwing Dominican right-hander Sandy Alcantara. As it turns out, Cabrera does not crave the sensation of lighting up a radar gun. Through his first 45 MLB appearances (43 starts), he has only twice had fastballs account for the majority of his total pitches, per Baseball Savant. Both on those instances—September 30, 2021 and June 7, 2023—were flukes as Cabrera exited early with injury concerns. From 2021-2023, Cabrera threw fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers and cutters combined) 35.5% of the time. Only a handful of pitchers with similar major league workloads over that span were more reluctant to use heaters. The beginning of Cabrera's 2024 campaign was delayed by a right shoulder impingement, so we are operating with a limited sample here. He made three rehab starts with Triple-A Jacksonville and had approximately 33.7% fastball usage (MiLB pitch type data is not as precise as MLB). However, in two starts since being activated from the injured list, he has taken his approach to a new extreme. He demonstrated excellent command and putaway ability during his April 15 season debut against the San Francisco Giants (6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K). Only 19 of his 91 pitches were fastballs (20.9%). Cabrera followed that up with a stressful yet altogether solid start against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday (5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K) while throwing 17.7% fastballs, setting a new career low in that department. Combining those outings, Cabrera's fastball usage is 19.3%. Among big leaguers who have thrown at least as many pitches as him (187), there is nobody else in the same zip code. If we refine the query further to focus on pitchers who have made multiple starts this season, it's even clearer how much of an outlier Cabrera is: Why is Cabrera so shy about throwing fastballs? The simplest answer is that bad things have been happening when he does. Opponents have a .500 batting average against his four-seamer. In terms of run value per pitch, it's the third-worst offering in the majors (-11.0 RV/100). Even when batters can eliminate the possibility of a fastball, Cabrera still has a deep enough arsenal to keep them guessing. He's got a changeup (92.5 mph average velocity), slider (88.2 mph) and curveball (84.1 mph) that each move in distinct ways and at distinct speeds. Because he throws his change so hard and so frequently, the average velo of Cabrera's pitches this season has been 90.3 mph, well above the 89.1 mph MLB average for right-handers. My main concern is whether Cabrera can continue to succeed with such predictable pitch locations. Four-seamers thrown up in the zone or above the zone are typically difficult to put in play. If Cabrera rarely plays that card, batters can more easily "cheat" on his secondary pitches and focus their gaze on the bottom half of the zone where he likes to aim them: Cabrera's third start of the season is expected to come at LoanDepot Park on Saturday vs. the Washington Nationals. Their production against fastballs has been even better than the Giants and Cubs, so Cabrera ought to be leaning heavily on his secondary stuff once again. View full article

Albies is on the IL for this series! Still got a chance to switch to somebody else...

Welcome to FOF's 24th Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. The Marlins have an opportunity to win consecutive games for the first time this year. Happy Passover to those who celebrate! SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: none.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Jerar Encarnación is homering on a daily basis in the Mexican League. Jerar Encarnación played parts of eight seasons in the Miami Marlins minor league system. There were stretches where the Dominican slugger looked like one of their most promising young position players. Encarnación had an unforgettable MLB debut on June 19, 2022, blasting a go-ahead grand slam. He received semi-regular playing time for the Marlins later that season. Eventually, though, it became clear that he could not catch up with high-end fastballs. Even at the Triple-A level, his strikeouts piled up. Midway through 2023, Encarnacíon was squeezed off of Miami's 40-man roster. He went unclaimed and elected minor league free agency at the end of the year. In January, Encarnación started a new chapter of his career when signing with Guerreros de Oaxaca of the Mexican League. He had some awesome hot streaks as an affiliated player, but nothing like this. Encarnación already has 10 home runs—entering Monday, that is more than any big leaguer and tied with the leading minor leaguers. But here's the kicker: his team has played only nine games. The Mexican League season just started on April 12. The 26-year-old outfielder has gone yard in every contest with the exception of April 17. He's earning style points along the way with estimated distances of 441 feet and 468 feet. Although this is an offensive-friendly environment, what Encarnación has done so far is still incomparable to anybody else in pro ball. He has single-handedly out-homered 10 of the Mexican League's 20 teams and matched the totals of three others. He's drawing plenty of walks as well, resulting in a mind-blowing .500/.590/1.469 slash line. His 2.059 OPS is nearly 500 points clear of the league's next-best qualified hitter. Somehow, Oaxaca's record is only 5-4! That doesn't bode well for their competitive chances once he cools off. It is premature to say what this could mean for Encarnación's career trajectory, but fun to see his power fully unleashed. View full article

Marlins news roundup for 4/22/24 On Sunday, despite a pedestrian final line (5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K), Edward Cabrera pitched well again, and this time, the bullpen behind him excelled, including the near-perfect Calvin Faucher. Jesús Sánchez's first home run of 2024 was a 460-foot no-doubter and even Nick Fortes enjoyed a 2-for-4 day. The Marlins won, 6-3. It's the first time this season that they did not lose a series. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 8-4. JT Chargois (neck spasms) began his minor league rehab assignment with a 1-2-3 inning. 1B Troy Johnston had arguably his best game of the season, going 3-for-4 with a walk. Double-A Pensacola lost, 3-0. The Marlins promoted C Joe Mack. The 21-year-old went 0-for-3 with a walk in his Blue Wahoos debut. RHP Paul Campbell (6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K) continues to pitch consistently well. High-A Beloit lost, 8-6. Another multi-hit game for INF Josh Zamora. He doesn't have quite enough playing time to qualify, otherwise he'd be leading the Midwest League in wRC+ (280). Low-A Jupiter won, 6-3. RHP Jake Brooks (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) carried a shutout into the sixth inning. OF Colby Shade went 3-for-3 with a walk and three stolen bases. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 Through seven Marlins series, FOF staffer @Daniel Rodriguez sits atop the Prediction Time leaderboard with 10 points, though @Alec Chao and @Hans Herrera made perfect picks against the Cubs. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 Listen back to our weekly State of the Fish call-in show, discussing the recent improvement from the Marlins pitching staff and some Triple-A call-up candidates. 🔷 Entering last week, the Marlins had been allowing nearly six runs per game. Against the Giants and Cubs, they allowed only four runs per game, and a chunk of that damage came against A.J. Puk, who was battling through shoulder fatigue. Overall, this is beginning to resemble the team I was expecting to see entering the season—not competitive enough to be proud of, but also not incompetent enough to be embarrassed by. 🔷 On this day 10 years ago, José Fernández out-dueled Alex Wood in a 1-0 Marlins win over the Braves. 🔷 The Marlins continued their annual tradition of sending rookies on a coffee run in Wrigleyville, as MLB.com Tim Stebbins details. 🔷 Every Monday (until they are firmly out of contention), I will update the Marlins' playoff odds. Per FanGraphs, those have dipped from 3.4% to 2.2% over the last week. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, baseball's top-ranked prospect, Jackson Holliday, has begun his major league career in a 1-for-30 slump. Shohei Ohtani set the record for most MLB home runs by a Japanese-born player. The Phillies are riding a six-game winning streak while the Pirates have dropped six in a row. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE tonight from 6:00-7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. Special guest: John Rodriguez. SuperSubs are encouraged to make series predictions. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter LHP Ryan Weathers) visit the Braves (RHP Reynaldo López) at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Marlins have a 34.4% chance to win, per FanGraphs. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

After initially showing flashes of being a solid all-around starter behind the plate, Fortes' offensive production has deteriorated, limiting his ceiling. Nick Fortes Jeff Mathis https://stathead.com/tiny/Z4p4L Worst MLB hitters since the start of 2023 (min. 300 PA) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=c%2C4%2C6%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C21%2C-1%2C34%2C35%2C41%2C-1%2C61%2C-1%2C111%2C-1%2C203%2C199%2C58&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2024&qual=300&sortcol=11&sortdir=asc&v_cr=202301&pagenum=1 View full article

Top highlights of pitchers Roddery Muñoz, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Calvin Faucher from the Marlins' series against the Chicago Cubs (April 19-21, 2024). View full video

Welcome to FOF's 23rd Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. Edward Cabrera hopes to replicate the success he had in his season debut earlier in the week. The Chicago Cubs counter with the venerable Kyle Hendricks, who's been awful through his first four starts. Bryan De La Cruz's seven-game extra-base hit streak was snapped in Saturday night's loss, but he is still the guy to watch in Miami's lineup. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: RHP Roddery Muñoz optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Puk had lousy control in each of his first four starts of the season. A dip in velocity during Friday's Marlins loss signaled that something was physically wrong with the converted reliever. Well, it was worth a shot. The Miami Marlins brought A.J. Puk to spring training as a candidate to crack their 2024 starting rotation. Despite never having handled that role at the major league level, Puk genuinely earned a spot, excelling in an exhibition setting while utilizing an expansive pitch mix. Once the real games began, though, the tall left-hander looked way over his head. On Saturday, the Marlins placed Puk on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder fatigue. Puk was an important albeit inconsistent piece of the 2023 Marlins bullpen. He stood out for his nasty stuff and his ability to control it, serving as Miami's closer for nearly half the season. Unfortunately for the Fish, Puk was unrecognizable in a starting role. Through four starts (13.2 IP) in 2024, he issued an MLB-leading 17 walks; the year before, he totaled only 11 unintentional walks (56.2 IP). His average four-seam fastball velocity plummeted from 95.8 mph to 93.3 mph. A 9.22 ERA exaggerates the degree of Puk's struggles, but he was undisputedly the weakest link in the Marlins rotation. For the time being, there is now a void in the Marlins starting rotation. Rookie right-hander Max Meyer is out of the picture indefinitely after the club optioned him to Triple-A Jacksonville, allegedly for workload management and developmental reasons. He was limited to three innings in his start on Saturday. Left-hander Braxton Garrett was seemingly on the cusp of being reinstated from the IL before experiencing a setback during a bullpen session on Monday. He is currently throwing, but there is not a firm timetable for his return. Roddery Muñoz was summoned from Jacksonville to make his major league debut against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday night. The 24-year-old right-hander was very impressive in his five-plus frames. However, his MiLB track record is underwhelming (6.57 ERA in 76.2 IP over parts of three Triple-A seasons). Puk's old rotation spot comes up next on Wednesday when the Marlins will be wrapping up a series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins games. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

An annual tradition when the Marlins visit Wrigley Field (dating back to 2019, I believe)...

Welcome to FOF's first Miami Marlins doubleheader game thread of the 2024 season (Game No. 21 and Game No. 22 of the season overall). Right-hander Roddery Muñoz will be making his major league debut in the latter game. This is the 65th doubleheader in Marlins history. In the first 64, they have swept 12 times, split 36 times and been swept 16 times. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: RHP Roddery Muñoz recalled and RHP Kyle Tyler selected from Triple-A Jacksonville; LHP A.J. Puk (left shoulder fatigue) placed on 15-day injured list; LHP Josh Simpson transferred to 60-day IL. Get your live on-site coverage from Isaac Azout.

Whatever illness he has been dealing with this week seemingly contributed to the velo dropping so low.