Jesús Luzardo 'most likely to be traded' by Marlins at deadline

The Miami Marlins will be trade deadline sellers this year—that much we already knew. With their 2024 postseason aspirations quickly turning into a pipe dream, the only question has been how much veteran talent Peter Bendix would be willing to unload during his first season in charge of baseball operations.

Wednesday on Foul Territory, Ken Rosenthal singled out left-hander Jesús Luzardo as the "the single player most likely to be traded" (not only on the Marlins, but among all 30 teams).

"The Marlins are going to keep going," Rosenthal continued. "They traded (Luis) Arraez, they're gonna trade Luzardo as long as he stays healthy—he had a little flare-up physically earlier, but he's gone."

Rosenthal is being hyperbolic here. Selling teams have the strongest incentives to trade pending free agents and red-hot relief pitchers. Tanner Scott, for example, fits in both of those categories and would undoubtedly have more value to a contender in August-October than he would to his current employer. It's a lower-stakes, more straightforward negotiation for "rentals" like him.

Rosenthal presumably means Luzardo is the most available big-name player. Through his reporting as well as the Miami Herald and other outlets, we've heard that the Marlins had offseason talks with the Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals regarding the 26-year-old. They could not reach an agreement and anointed Luzardo their Opening Day starter.

As alluded to in Rosenthal's quote above, Luzardo was sidelined for three weeks earlier this season due to a left flexor muscle strain, but has pitched well since being reinstated from the injured list on May 11. Through nine total starts in 2024, he has posted a 4.18 ERA, 3.63 FIP and 1.2 bWAR, averaging more than 5 ⅔ innings per outing. This comes on the heels of a great 2023 campaign (3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 4.0 bWAR in 178.2 IP) in which he set a Marlins single-season record for strikeouts by a left-hander (208).

Luzardo may not be quite as famous as Arraez, but he would bring back even more talent in return. He's less expensive this season ($5.5M salary) and has an extra year of arbitration eligibility remaining (both 2025 and 2026). His player profile—a hard-throwing lefty starter with good control who consistently generates whiffs with his secondary stuff—has universal appeal.

Understandably, the Marlins have set a sky-high asking price. My quibble with Rosenthal's report is, if nobody meets that price, Bendix has the leverage to stand pat and resume Luzardo negotiations during the winter.

If Luzardo continues to start every fifth Marlins game, that would give him 10 more opportunities between now and July 30 to "audition" for buyers.