Ely Sussman

Today's Marlins news roundup also includes highlights from Baseball America's updated Top 30 prospects list.Wednesday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-reds-josh-bell-home-runs-8-9-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/09/8a791610-60dc34e1-c489115c-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Regular Fish On First visitors may notice that something's different around here. Indeed, I spent Wednesday night switching up the design template that the website uses. New font and color scheme, more navigation options, new sidebar (on desktop), etc. Still a work in progress! Please let me know how you feel about it in the comments. OK, now onto the news roundup...Wednesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: C Austin Allen (Jacksonville) was outstanding in his return from a hand injury, driving in all three Jumbo Shrimp runs and working well with the pitching staff (only two runs allowed). RHP Jacob Miller made his return to the Jupiter starting rotation (3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K). In the second game of the Hammerheads doubleheader, RHP José Salvador exited with an apparent injury after facing only one batter. OF José Gerardo took over the FCL Marlins team RBI lead with his 26th, 27th and 28th of the season. He's still striking out in 42.2% of his plate appearances, though.Josh Bell became the first player in Marlins history to hit home runs from both sides of the plate in the same game (it was also Bell's first time ever doing it in the pros). A.J. Puk touched 99 miles per hour for the first time this season and Tanner Scott showed no signs of fatigue despite working for the third consecutive day. Miami's .722 winning percentage in one-run games continues to be the best in the league. Wednesdays have been the most prosperous day of the week for the 2023 Marlins (h/t Loud Marlins Fan). They have a 13-5 record in such games.Fish On First's Cincinnati correspondent Grant Kiefer was busy. Read all of his features and recaps from the Reds series in our At The Ballpark section.NL Wild Card race updates: the Phillies won, while the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres lost. The Marlins hold the third Wild Card spot by 0.5 games.Elsewhere around the majors, Michael Lorenzen threw a no-hitter against the Nationals. It took him 124 pitches to complete it, the highest single-game total for any pitcher this MLB season. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (doubleheader beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET), DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) and DSL Miami (10:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.I have brought the Fish Stripes concept of FanPosts to FOF. They will be published here. Submit your own Marlins articles and we'll share them with the rest of our community. Details below./fish-on-first-updates/marlins-fanposts/Baseball America updated their Marlins Top 30 prospects list. OF Victor Mesa Jr. (ranked 4th) and OF/INF Dane Myers (10th) were big risers after entering the season unranked. Each of the Marlins' top six picks in the 2023 MLB Draft are 18th or higher as is seventh-rounder LHP Justin Storm. The strangest inclusion would have to be RHP Jhon Cabral (ranked 27th). As young as he is, it's difficult to imagine a major league future of any kind for somebody with such severe control issues (29.2 BB% in the FCL this season) and very little strikeout ability to offset it (3.1 K%). The most notable exclusions are LHP Patrick Monteverde and 1B Troy Johnston. FOF Super Subscribers can see the full list here.Happy 20th birthday to RHP Jacob Miller. Including Wednesday's start, Miller has a 4.45 earned run average through 54 2/3 minor league innings, mostly at the Low-A level. He hasn't been getting quite as much swing-and-miss as the Marlins probably envisioned.On this day 30 years ago, Bob Natal’s walk-off triple pushed the Marlins past the Cubs in 15 innings.Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes a birthday shoutout to one of the top prospects in Miami's farm system.Tuesday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-reds-jorge-soler-braxton-garrett-8-8-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/08/e741c0ce-989f6f5e-6b2e7329-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: 1B Troy Johnston has hits in all 13 of his games since joining Jacksonville, including extra-base hits in nine of those games. In Pensacola, SS Nasim Nuñez is riding a 14-game hitting streak (though none of those hits have gone for extra bases). In the fifth appearance of his minor league rehab assignment, Tommy Nance (Pensacola) had an effective 16-pitch outing (1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K). OF Osiris Johnson (Beloit) continues to quietly play the best ball of his pro career. Over the last 30 days, he's slashing .379/.453/.606. Mesmerizing box score in the first half of the FCL Marlins doubleheader. The two teams combined to draw 31 walks in a seven-inning game. OF Davis Bradshaw moving up from Beloit to Pensacola and INF/OF Javier Sanoja going from Jupiter to Beloit were among the latest series of minor league promotions. Kevin Barral put those transactions in their proper context./news/marlins-prospects-roster-moves-8-8-23/Jorge Soler now has eight home runs this season in what Baseball-Reference defines as "late-and-close" situations. That's tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most in Major League Baseball. The Marlins won their 25th one-run game, surpassing their total from the entire 2022 season.Elsewhere around the majors, Rays ace Shane McClanahan is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a forearm injury. Surgery is being considered. Kyle Schwarber reached the 30-homer milestone for the fifth time in his career. Orioles closer Félix Bautista, who had allowed only five earned runs all year, blew a save on Kyle Tucker's ninth-inning grand slam. The Marlins gained a half-game on the Phillies in the NL Wild Card race and a full game on the Giants, Diamondbacks and Padres (and obviously, the Reds). The Angels won for the first time in August.The Marlins have a 47.2% chance to win their series finale against the Reds, per FanGraphs. It'll be Johnny Cueto's 102 career start at Great American Ball Park. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:15 p.m. ET) is on the road.I have brought the Fish Stripes concept of FanPosts to FOF. They will be published here. Submit your own Marlins articles and we'll share them with the rest of our community. Details below./fish-on-first-updates/marlins-fanposts/Hall of Famer Wade Boggs explained to Jerry Beach of Compare.bet why it's "kind of refreshing" to see Luis Arraez thrive with an old-school, contract-oriented approach.Super Subscriber Paolo Torres is running a fantasy football league this NFL season and encourages Marlins fans to join him.Happy 24th birthday to Xavier Edwards. Edwards made his major league debut on May 2, but has spent most of the season with Triple-A Jacksonville, posting a .374 batting average and 5.3% strikeout rate. Both marks are the best among qualified full-season MiLB players. It will be almost impossible for the Marlins to deny Edwards of a September call-up, and he could make it up sooner if any infielders suffer an injury.Our partners at FOCO have dozens of products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes a well-deserved prospect promotion.Monday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-reds-eury-perez-loss-8-7-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/07/197f22fb-75f1a816-da3fa2b3-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Monday's Marlins MiLB Notes: OF Griffin Conine has been promoted from Pensacola to Jacksonville, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. Conine had been stuck at Double-A for parts of three seasons, becoming the all-time Blue Wahoos home run leader in the process. He gradually raised his wRC+ there from 86 in 2021 to 103 in 2022 to 126 this season, coinciding with a reduction in his strikeout rate (47.4% to 36.9% to 34.0%). Swing-and-miss issues still hinder the 26-year-old's long-term outlook, but now he's just one call away from The Show. Meanwhile in the Florida Complex League, the FCL Marlins erupted for 12 runs, led by INF/C Carmine Lane. Eury Pérez excelled in his first trip through the Reds lineup, but it was a very different story the next time through. His inability to throw his secondary pitches in the zone allowed hitters to sit on his fastball. He threw 78 pitches overall, tied for his second-fewest in any MLB start. The leash should be a little longer for his next outing (projected to be Sunday vs. Yankees).Jazz Chisholm Jr. put his hamstring cramp behind him by homering as a pinch-hitter. Chisholm has barely played in recent months due to various injuries, but here's some small sample size fun: since returning from his initial IL stint (turf toe) on June 27, he's slashing .359/.405/.769(!!!) with a 214 wRC+. Alas, that's only 12 games. Across the board, his 2023 rate stats are comparable or better than his career numbers. Just gotta stay on the field.Elsewhere around the majors, the Angels remain winless since the All-Star break after allowing the Giants to rally for six runs in the top of the ninth. The Rangers expect a six-week absence for Josh Jung after he suffered a broken left thumb in Sunday's game against Miami. Spencer Strider had one of the worst starts of his career in a Braves loss to the Pirates (2.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K). The Orioles suspended their television play-by-play announcer, Kevin Brown, for simply reflecting on how much the franchise struggled to compete with the rival Rays while rebuilding. In the event that Brown leaves the O's altogether, he'd be a welcome addition to Marlins broadcasts, in my opinion.Rewatch the latest episode of and remember to join us prior to every Marlins series opener. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 58.4% chance to win their next game against the Reds, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET), DSL Marlins (10:00 a.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:15 p.m. ET) and FCL Marlins (doubleheader beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.I have brought the Fish Stripes concept of FanPosts to FOF. They will be published here. Submit your own Marlins articles and we'll share them with the rest of our community. Details below./fish-on-first-updates/marlins-fanposts/Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald calls out Chisholm, Jorge Soler and A.J. Puk as the Marlins players who need to step up most to halt this midseason collapse.Super Subscriber Paolo Torres is running a fantasy football league this NFL season and encourages Marlins fans to join him.Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

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Today's Marlins news roundup also ponders the future of Jorge Soler.Sunday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-rangers-shutout-sweep-8-6-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/06/520308ae-cc19a0a2-b3726af4-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Recently optioned Edward Cabrera (Jacksonville) had a quality start on an efficient 74 pitches (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR). INF/OF Xavier Edwards homered for the second straight game and raised his batting average to .373. 1B Jacob Berry (Pensacola) stuffed the box score by going 2-for-3 with a triple, a home run, two walks, a stolen base and four RBIs. C Joe Mack (Beloit) provided the Sky Carp's only offense with two solo home runs. RHP Anthony Maldonado (Jupiter) threw a scoreless inning with three strikeouts in the first game of his rehab assignment. He's coming back from a hip injury. 1B Brock Vradenburg, who went 2-for-5 in his professional debut with the Hammerheads, is just 2-for-26 since then.The Marlins have lost 13 of their last 14 road games. Sandy Alcantara now has more losses (10) and more home runs allowed (17) than he did during the entire 2022 season.Craig Mish of SportsGrid made a special guest appearance on our weekly State of the Fish Twitter Space. Listen to it here or via the Fish On First podcast channel.Elsewhere around the majors, the Cubs leapfrogged the Marlins in the NL Wild Card race. They've won 13 of their last 16 games overall. Carlos Rodón's nightmare season with the Yankees continues. His ERA ballooned to 7.33 as he left his start in the third inning with left hamstring tightness. In his first major league start of the season, Minnesota's Dallas Keuchel took pitch-to-contact to an extreme. Keuchel did not strike out any of the 23 Diamondbacks batters he faced, though he did limit them to only one run in five innings pitched.FOF staffer Grant Kiefer made perfect picks for the Marlins vs. Rangers series. He's now tied with Daniel Rodriguez atop the Prediction Time leaderboard. You can participate in Prediction Time too while supporting what we do by becoming a Super Subscriber./fish-on-first-updates/super-subscriber-details/We’ve got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins enter this new week with 32.0% playoff odds, per FanGraphs. They are a half-game back of the third NL Wild Card spot entering play today. Weather permitting, they have a 58.3% chance to win their series opener against the Reds as Eury Pérez will make his return to the majors. FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) is on the road.I have brought the Fish Stripes concept of FanPosts to FOF. Submit your own Marlins articles and we'll share them with the rest of our community. Details below./fish-on-first-updates/marlins-fanposts/As valuable as Jorge Soler has been this season, it seems clear that the Marlins will let him walk in free agency (assuming he exercises his opt out). I explain why./analysis/jorge-soler-marlins-qualifying-offer/Kevin Barral and Alex Carver were on site in Jupiter to witness the professional debut of top Marlins prospect Noble Meyer. They got a postgame interview with him, too./game-coverage/at-the-ballpark/noble-meyer-interview-professional-debut/According to Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital, Major League Baseball has launched an investigation following reports that Marlins executives at their baseball academy in the Dominican Republic are fining players for minor rules violations and pocketing the money for themselves.Super Subscriber Paolo Torres is running a fantasy football league this NFL season and encourages Marlins fans to join him.Secret Base did a of the 2003 Marlins season, setting the scene for how they spoiled what was supposed to be the final act of Roger Clemens' legendary career.Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Imaget

Soler has been among Miami's most important players in 2023, but it's difficult to see how he fits with the franchise moving forward.It took until year two, but Jorge Soler is one of the few examples in recent memory of a Marlins free agent signing living up to his contract. Acquired by the Fish coming off a starring role in the 2021 World Series, he has become the imposing power threat that their offense sorely needed. Soler leads the 2023 Marlins—by wide margins—in home runs, walks and runs scored. "Cubano Gigante" has been especially productive in high-leverage situations. Across Major League Baseball, only Chas McCormick tops him in FanGraphs' Clutch stat. Combining his timely hitting with his everyday availability, Soler ranks 12th among MLB hitters in win probability added (2.83), residing in the same neighborhood as the likes of Yordan Álvarez (3.16), Aaron Judge (2.75) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2.50). https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-05/27/2b6af449-6728cb05-966c4844-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/02/dacea2cc-b6964fda-b0348a49-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Soler's contract is not up yet—2024 is the final guaranteed season on what was originally a three-year, $36 million deal. However, he negotiated the ability to opt out early and dive back into the free agency this coming winter. It ought to be a fairly easy decision for him under the current circumstances. Shohei Ohtani is far and away the best bat available in the 2023-24 MLB free agent class, occupying a tier all his own. Cody Bellinger, assuming he declines his mutual option with the Chicago Cubs, is in tier two largely because of his youth and MVP upside. But Soler would be firmly in the third tier. His production at the plate is comparable to the likes of Matt Chapman, Jeimer Candelario, J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner (player option). Soler's Marlins deal calls for a 2024 base salary of $9 million, plus up to $4 million of performance bonuses for 2023 plate appearances. Soler has already achieved $2 million of those incentives by reaching 350 PA ($500k), 400 PA ($500k) and 450 PA ($1M). He will get $2 million more for reaching 550 PA. Starting about half of the Marlins' remaining regular season games will get him there, so barring a significant injury down the stretch, he'll have 13 million reasons to stick around. I doubt that will be enough. Entering his age-32 season with a lifetime 111 wRC+ and still having the flexibility to roam the corner outfield spots when necessary, Soler should once again receive lucrative multi-year proposals. The more fascinating hypothetical is this: What would Soler do if the Marlins presented him with a qualifying offer upon exercising his opt out? The QO's value is the average of MLB's 125 highest-paid players. Last offseason, it was worth $19.65 million. Let's conservatively say it rises to $20 million. Would that be enough? The Marlins' trade deadline activity suggests they will probably let Soler walk without finding out. For the moment, new acquisitions Josh Bell and Jake Burger are primarily being used at first base and third base, respectively. However, they're both below-average fielders at those positions, just like Soler is in the outfield. While the power potential of this trio is alluring, keeping them in the lineup together would come at the expense of the team's defense...and the expense of principal owner Bruce Sherman. As much as Sherman has increased the Marlins payroll from where it used to be, efficiency is still a priority. Soler has All-Star upside, but he hasn't consistently performed at that level—just look at 2022, when a back injury limited him to 72 mediocre games. Would a low-revenue team that's already on the hook to pay $16.5 million to Bell next season commit $20 million more to Soler given the need to make major upgrades at several other positions, most obviously catcher and shortstop? Unlikely. Here's the best-case scenario for the Marlins: Soler dominates for the rest of this season, guiding them to a playoff berth and boosting his market value to such an extent that the club can extend a qualifying offer knowing he'll reject it to sign elsewhere. As compensation, the Marlins would get an extra 2024 MLB Draft pick (and the bonus pool money associated with it). The draft pick would be wedged between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if Soler signs for $50 million or more; it'd come after Competitive Balance Round B if his contract guarantees less than $50 million. Either way, that's a notable asset considering the weakened state of Miami's farm system. Sherman has gotten a lousy return on the majority of his multi-year free agent investments, most recently Jean Segura. But hopefully Soler's impact emboldens him to continue shopping for proven veterans who suit the Marlins' roster needs. Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

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