Is an offseason break-up between Marlins, Jorge Soler inevitable?

Soler has been among Miami's most important players in 2023, but it's difficult to see how he fits with the franchise moving forward.

It took until year two, but Jorge Soler is one of the few examples in recent memory of a Marlins free agent signing living up to his contract. Acquired by the Fish coming off a starring role in the 2021 World Series, he has become the imposing power threat that their offense sorely needed.

Soler leads the 2023 Marlins—by wide margins—in home runs, walks and runs scored. "Cubano Gigante" has been especially productive in high-leverage situations. Across Major League Baseball, only Chas McCormick tops him in FanGraphs' Clutch stat. Combining his timely hitting with his everyday availability, Soler ranks 12th among MLB hitters in win probability added (2.83), residing in the same neighborhood as the likes of Yordan Álvarez (3.16), Aaron Judge (2.75) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2.50).

Soler's contract is not up yet—2024 is the final guaranteed season on what was originally a three-year, $36 million deal. However, he negotiated the ability to opt out early and dive back into the free agency this coming winter. It ought to be a fairly easy decision for him under the current circumstances.

Shohei Ohtani is far and away the best bat available in the 2023-24 MLB free agent class, occupying a tier all his own. Cody Bellinger, assuming he declines his mutual option with the Chicago Cubs, is in tier two largely because of his youth and MVP upside. But Soler would be firmly in the third tier. His production at the plate is comparable to the likes of Matt Chapman, Jeimer Candelario, J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner (player option).

Soler's Marlins deal calls for a 2024 base salary of $9 million, plus up to $4 million of performance bonuses for 2023 plate appearances. Soler has already achieved $2 million of those incentives by reaching 350 PA ($500k), 400 PA ($500k) and 450 PA ($1M). He will get $2 million more for reaching 550 PA. Starting about half of the Marlins' remaining regular season games will get him there, so barring a significant injury down the stretch, he'll have 13 million reasons to stick around.

I doubt that will be enough. Entering his age-32 season with a lifetime 111 wRC+ and still having the flexibility to roam the corner outfield spots when necessary, Soler should once again receive lucrative multi-year proposals.

The more fascinating hypothetical is this: What would Soler do if the Marlins presented him with a qualifying offer upon exercising his opt out? The QO's value is the average of MLB's 125 highest-paid players. Last offseason, it was worth $19.65 million. Let's conservatively say it rises to $20 million. Would that be enough?

The Marlins' trade deadline activity suggests they will probably let Soler walk without finding out. For the moment, new acquisitions Josh Bell and Jake Burger are primarily being used at first base and third base, respectively. However, they're both below-average fielders at those positions, just like Soler is in the outfield. While the power potential of this trio is alluring, keeping them in the lineup together would come at the expense of the team's defense...and the expense of principal owner Bruce Sherman.

As much as Sherman has increased the Marlins payroll from where it used to be, efficiency is still a priority. Soler has All-Star upside, but he hasn't consistently performed at that level—just look at 2022, when a back injury limited him to 72 mediocre games. Would a low-revenue team that's already on the hook to pay $16.5 million to Bell next season commit $20 million more to Soler given the need to make major upgrades at several other positions, most obviously catcher and shortstop? Unlikely.

Here's the best-case scenario for the Marlins: Soler dominates for the rest of this season, guiding them to a playoff berth and boosting his market value to such an extent that the club can extend a qualifying offer knowing he'll reject it to sign elsewhere. As compensation, the Marlins would get an extra 2024 MLB Draft pick (and the bonus pool money associated with it). The draft pick would be wedged between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if Soler signs for $50 million or more; it'd come after Competitive Balance Round B if his contract guarantees less than $50 million. Either way, that's a notable asset considering the weakened state of Miami's farm system.

Sherman has gotten a lousy return on the majority of his multi-year free agent investments, most recently Jean Segura. But hopefully Soler's impact emboldens him to continue shopping for proven veterans who suit the Marlins' roster needs.

Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins