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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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MIA 4, STL 6: Marlins unable to come up with the big hit
Ely Sussman replied to Nick Turok's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I can't say it has really been top of mind for me this season. The Marlins' overall numbers in 2-out situations are right in line with the rest of the league (no better, no worse). RECENTLY, yes. It cost them this game in particular and both of the Puk blown saves before the break. -
Today's Marlins news roundup also includes an update on Avisaíl García's progress.Monday's Game/game-coverage/marlins-cardinals-highlights-nolan-arenado-jesus-luzardo/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/17/d4df8583-32687580-e40bbbc0-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Monday's Marlins MiLB Notes: All three rookie-ball affiliates had their games suspended due to rain.Dylan Floro's earned run average ballooned to 4.86 during his rough inning on Monday. That's despite a fielder independent pitching of 2.85. He has been the fourth-unluckiest qualified MLB reliever this season by that measure.The Marlins became the first MLB team to ground into 100 double plays. Meanwhile, no other team has more than 81.Per Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline, RHP Justin Storm is the third Marlins draft pick to sign for less than his slot value, receiving a $241k bonus (slot was $261k). There's one more week remaining until the signing deadline (5:00 p.m. ET on July 25).Elsewhere around the majors, highly regarded Pirates prospects Endy Rodriguez and Quinn Priester debuted together in a blowout loss to the Guardians. Shohei Ohtani blasted his MLB-leading 35th home run in the Angels' victory over the Yankees. The latest episode of touched on Johnny Cueto, Edward Cabrera, Marlins/Cardinals trade possibilities and more. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 38.6% chance to win their next game against the Cardinals, per FanGraphs. Edward Cabrera will be making his return from a five-week injured list stint, as will St. Louis outfielder Tyler O'Neill, who's been sidelined since early May. Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Triple-A Jacksonville (7:35 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:35 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Daily scoreboard watching notes: root for the Orioles over the Dodgers, the Braves over the Diamondbacks, the Blue Jays over the Padres and the Nationals over the Cubs.Our MLB trade deadline coverage is at full intensity. The latest articles in there include my favorite right-handed reliever targets, Grant Kiefer's overview of realistically available and attainable players, and Kevin Barral's write-ups on rental starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman.Per Christina De Nicola of MLB.com, Avisaíl García (left back tightness) will begin a rehab assignment with Pensacola tonight. His previous rehab assignment was derailed by a setback, but barring a repeat of that, he's on track to make it back to the Marlins active roster within the next two weeks.There have been upticks in Jean Segura's quality of contact and luck during his recent hot streak, writes Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. were merely honorable mentions in the FanGraphs 2023 Trade Value series. Expect to see Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez ranked inside the top 40 as the rest of the list gets unveiled this week. Perhaps Jesús Luzardo sneaks in there, too.Marlins Historian asks what you think is the best shorthand name for LoanDepot Park. Happy 23rd birthday to Marlins RHP Ike Buxton. Miami's 15th-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft has a 1.91 ERA in 33.0 IP for Jupiter this season with a huge 58.6% groundball rate. He's been stretched out as a starter after originally being utilized out of the bullpen.
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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes a shoutout to Johnny Cueto for filling his mop-up role to a T.Sunday's Games/game-coverage/marlins-orioles-sweep-johnny-cueto-return/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-07/16/e7794100-996de8f8-441d3079-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: INF Jordan Groshans (Jacksonville) had a season-high four hits. Brutal start for Pensacola's RHP M.D. Johnson (3.0 IP, 9 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR). High-A Beloit scored 13(!) unanswered runs after initially falling behind 6-0. INF Kahlil Watson wasn't part of the fun—he's been placed on the 7-day IL. Jupiter's RHP Collin Lowe, LHP Dale Stanavich and RHP Riskiel Tineo combined to pitch a shutout.Johnny Cueto was the bright spot for the Marlins' pitching staff on Sunday, logging three scoreless innings in mop-up duty. Yes, he benefited from a couple generous called strikes and barely showed any ability to miss bats, but I have to give him credit for completing the task assigned to him. After throwing 50 pitches, he's doubtful to be available during the Cardinals series.Three more hits for Dane Myers raised the rookie's batting average to .406. That ranks 11th among all qualified hitters since July 4 (the date of his major league debut).The Marlins signed fourth-round draft pick LHP Emmett Olson ($460k) and fifth-rounder RHP Andrew Lindsey ($340k) to underslot deals. The $239k of combined savings from their signings will presumably go toward locking up LHP Thomas White, who's commanding far above his slot value.As usual, lots of ground covered during Grant Kiefer's weekly State of the Fish Twitter Space. Check out the full replay of Sunday's episode.Nobody made perfect predictions for the Marlins vs. Orioles series. Series MVP honors went to Anthony Santander. There's now a three-way tie between Super Subscribers atop the 2023 Prediction Time leaderboard. Join the fun by becoming a Super Subscriber yourself!/super-subscribers/marlins-prediction-time-leaderboard/Elsewhere around the majors, the Angels bullpen imploded on Sunday Night Baseball. It's been a full month since the Halos last won a series, pushing them firmly into the "seller" category. The Giants swept the Pirates and have taken over the National League's top Wild Card spot. The Rockies and Yankees combined for 14 runs from the sixth inning onward. Alan Trejo's first home run of the season provided the walk-off winner in the 11th.We’re back with a new episode of Fish On First LIVE, streaming at 6:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Our special guest is David Fernandez. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! Entering this new week, the Marlins have 62.1% playoff odds, per FanGraphs. They have a 46.1% chance to win their series opener against the Cardinals. FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Daily scoreboard watching notes: root for the Orioles over the Dodgers and the Nationals over the Cubs.Our MLB trade deadline coverage is at full intensity. The latest articles in there include my favorite right-handed reliever targets, Grant Kiefer's overview of realistically available and attainable players, and Kevin Barral's write-ups on rental starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman.RHP Noble Meyer ranks 54th and RHP Max Meyer ranks 80th on Baseball America's updated Top 100 prospects list.Awkward timing considering the news of his season-ending hip surgery, but congrats nonetheless to Matt Barnes and his wife Chelsea, who are expecting their first child together in January 2024.
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The Miami Marlins have exceeded expectations so far in 2023. However, to sustain this (and to better position themselves for perennial postseason contention), they'll likely need to acquire help from outside the organization. Leading up to the August 1 MLB trade deadline, Fish On First will profile potentially attainable players who would fit with what the Fish are building. The bullpen has been a surprising strength of the Marlins roster this season. The club has a trusted closer in A.J. Puk. Tanner Scott is throwing more strikes than ever and excelling. It's been a career year for Steven Okert and an exciting breakout for Andrew Nardi, who has found his niche inheriting messy situations. What do all of those names have in common? They're lefties. The Marlins are more vulnerable from the right side. High-leverage standouts during the first quarter of the season, both Huascar Brazoban and Dylan Floro are in the midst of extended stretches of mediocrity. Bryan Hoeing has come down with a bad case of gopheritis (5 HR in his last 8.1 IP). Matt Barnes will undergo season-ending hip surgery. By default, JT Chargois is the bullpen's most reliable right-hander, and to his credit, the offseason acquisition enters Sunday on a streak of eight scoreless appearances in a row (with all six of his inherited runners left stranded). But Chargois is relying heavily on ground balls while inducing swinging strikes at a career-low rate. There are some intriguing internal candidates like prospects George Soriano, Sean Reynolds, Anthony Maldonado and Zach McCambley. Injured righties Tommy Nance and Anthony Bender (and maybe even Max Meyer) have a chance of making it back before season's end. If this was a typical Marlins season, letting the kids play would be a reasonable approach. As you've surely noticed by now, the Fish are atypically competitive (66.2% odds to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs). I think the front office should seriously pursue a formidable right-handed reliever from outside the organization. I'm not strictly opposed to rentals, but the Marlins should prioritize arms with club control beyond 2023. Floro and Barnes (once they decline his club option) are heading for free agency this winter. Also, Miami's farm system is on shaky ground already, making it hard to justify depleting it even further for somebody who's only going to pitch 20-25 innings through the remainder of this regular season and then leave (e.g. David Robertson and Jordan Hicks). The Marlins should look at righties who perform particularly well with the platoon advantage. The ability to work on back-to-back days is crucial considering how many close games this team finds itself in. Assuming that the Marlins stick with a catching tandem of Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings, newcomers must do their part to limit the running game—far too many opponents have gone first to third by stealing second and forcing a throwing error. Ideal targets are quick to the plate with their deliveries and have low walk/hit-by-pitch rates. Honorable Mention: Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs) https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/0d47eeb5-cf25-4ad2-8e82-37b0c1cb4f9d.mp4I really wanted to highlight Alzolay, a Baseball Savant darling who has been outstanding in his first full season as a reliever. But the more I mull over it, the less I think he'll be available at a reasonable price due his combination of upside, club control through 2026 and the Cubs' aspirations to be contenders in the not-too-distant future. Let's focus on these four guys instead. Justin Lawrence (Colorado Rockies) 2023 stats: 2.70 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.41 WPA in 46.2 IP Lawrence is even farther away from free agency than Alzolay (still pre-arbitration eligible). Thankfully for the Marlins, he's on a rudderless Rockies team that should be aiming to offload most of their productive big leaguers at this deadline. Throwing from a low arm slot, the 28-year-old uses his mid-90s sinker for soft contact and his mid-80s sweeper for punchouts. He has allowed only two home runs in his 46 career appearances at Coors Field (52.2 IP). Lawrence has stranded 23 of his 25 (92%) inherited baserunners this season, a success rate unmatched by any other MLB reliever who has inherited at least 20. Scott Barlow (Kansas City Royals) 2023 stats: 4.09 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 0.19 WPA in 33.0 IP Barlow has been Kansas City's primary closer for much of the last three seasons. Even in a down year by his standards, he's been amazing against right-handed batters (allowing .423 OPS with 39.4 K%). Barlows ranks in the 93rd percentile among all pitchers in the majors in hard-hit rate allowed. He was in the 96th percentile in 2022. Earning a $5.3 million salary this season, Barlow will be getting a raise during his final trip through the arbitration process into the $8 million range if he remains healthy down the stretch. That's more than the Marlins are generally comfortable spending on any individual reliever, but that factor ought to help them acquire him from the Royals without forfeiting any of their top-tier prospects. Carlos Estévez (Los Angeles Angels) 2023 stats: 1.75 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 2.47 WPA in 36.0 IP https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/63b55f7f-31fa-4921-ad93-47df938be2eb.mp4A first-time All-Star in 2023, Estévez's win probability added is the fifth-highest in the majors. He's the hardest thrower of anybody I've mentioned in this article, averaging 97.1 miles per hour on his four-seamer. Unconventionally, he continues to stick with his heater in two-strike counts (83.7% of his strikeouts via fastballs). The ever-disappointing Angels have lost 10 of their last 12 games, dropping their playoff odds into the single digits. Like Barlow, Estévez would come with one more year of control ($6.75M in 2024). The Angels don't need to trade him now, but this is likely the peak of his value. Paul Sewald (Seattle Mariners)2023 stats: 3.22 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 2.32 WPA in 36.1 IP Sewald is the most consistent pitcher in this group and he's doing it with 26th percentile average fastball velocity. He possesses one of the sport's most aesthetically pleasing sweepers. The shape of that pitch is unlike any of the Marlins' current righties—always a bonus when you can construct a bullpen with as many "different looks" as possible. If you want to nitpick the 33-year-old, he's been susceptible to homers when pitching on back-to-back days. The Mariners were trending up before the All-Star break, but overall, they're in a similar spot to the Angels and they just lost a home series to the Tigers. Yikes. They'll need to get hot again leading up to the deadline to justify keeping their current roster together. Sewald is under control through 2024 at a salary that will be in the Barlow/Estévez range. Photo courtesy of carlosestevez28/Instagram
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Offishial news, 7/14/23: TV ratings rise; 2024 schedule release
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Today's Marlins news roundup also includes fascinating details about Jesús Sánchez's upbringing and baseball roots.Marlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Both DSL teams got rained out. Coming out of the All-Star break, Marlins affiliates have combined for a winning percentage of precisely .500 (202-202).The 2024 Marlins schedule is already out. It begins with hosting the Pirates in Miami (March 28-31) and concludes with visiting the Blue Jays in Toronto (September 27-29). No neutral site matchups. The only three-city road trip is actually reasonable in terms of air travel (Milwaukee to Tampa Bay to Atlanta).We dusted off the old @fishstripes Twitter account and made it @MarlinsSpaces! That's the new home of Grant Kiefer's weekly State of the Fish program as well as breaking news/game reaction Twitter Spaces we'll be doing whenever the situation calls for it. Check out the full replay of Thursday's episode.No word of any 2023 Marlins draft picks officially signing as of yet, but the club scooped up University of Arizona infielder Tony Bullard as an undrafted free agent. The 23-year-old slashed .286/.374/.492 during his collegiate career and drastically improved his strikeout rate last spring, from 24.0% the previous season down to 12.6%.We’re back with a new episode of Fish On First LIVE, streaming at 6:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Our special guests will be the masterminds behind Marlins Network. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 48.1% chance to win their series opener against the Orioles, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET), FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (8:05 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:10 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.You've seen Marlins players do their "just keep swimming" celebration on the basepaths throughout this season, right? Our partners at BreakingT have designed a t-shirt for it! Buy yours here.Alex Carver highlights C Ronald Hernández, 1B Torin Montgomery and OF/INF Javier Sanoja among the lower-level Marlins prospects who are deserving of promotions.John Turlington's newest breaks down last Wednesday's stunning walk-off win against the Cardinals.Jesús Sánchez reflects on growing up with food insecurity and learning to bat left-handed to imitate Dominican legend David Ortiz (via Las Mayores). Also during the interview (recorded in 2022), Sánchez shows gratitude toward Starling Marte and Jesús Aguilar for being positive veteran presences in the Marlins clubhouse.On a related note, the Marlins organized another food distribution at LoanDepot Park on Thursday. At least 500 families received a week's worth of meals.Household viewership of Marlins regular season games on Bally Sports Florida is up 14% from 2022. That aligns closely with the club's home attendance increase (up 13% per game).Get the backstory about how the Pensacola Blue Wahoos hired team photographer Nino Mendez. He's been making our MiLB coverage so much better the last few years with the volume and beauty of his player pics. Examples of Mendez's work shown below.Happy 26th birthday to Marlins LHP Will Stewart. Acquired from the Phillies in the J.T. Realmuto trade, Stewart pitched in Triple-A each of the last two seasons, but hasn't quite broken through to the highest level. His best offering is his changeup. Stewart is out for the rest of 2023 while recovering from elbow surgery.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins -
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Although barely halfway through the 2023 campaign, Major League Baseball unveiled its entire 2024 regular season slate on Thursday. The Miami Marlins devoted plenty of time and energy to producing their schedule-at-a-glance video starring Billy the Marlin and several of their sponsors, but apparently did not come prepared with a snazzy graphic overviewing all 162 games. I don't have the time to make one myself. Hopefully, this series of screenshots will suffice! Home games are in black, away games are in gray.

