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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Offishial news, 9/6/23: Rojas reflects on Miami tenure; Scott stays hot
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Tuesday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-back-luzardo-with-four-homers-take-game-one/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/05/c6ca559d-39af81d4-37dfc803-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: Every full-season affiliate won! On a night where top-rated MLB prospect Jackson Holliday made his Triple-A debut, SS Jacob Amaya stole the show with two homers. 1B Troy Johnston went yard for the 25th time this season. C/DH Paul McIntosh (Pensacola) put the Blue Wahoos ahead for good with a solo shot in the ninth inning. INF Yiddi Cappe (Beloit) has now gone 30 straight games without drawing a walk. The Jupiter Hammerheads clinched a Florida State League playoff berth for the first time since 2012.Jazz Chisholm Jr. entered Tuesday with only 10 total bases off of left-handed pitching all season. He racked up six against Clayton Kershaw and Ryan Yarbrough. After the game, he detailed the daily work he's been doing in order to improve against lefties.Tanner Scott put the game on ice by dotting a 98.5 mph fastball on the corner, amusingly ignoring Dodgers baserunner James Outman, who took off for third base before Scott even began his delivery. Scott lowered his FIP to 2.16, the second-best mark among all qualified MLB relievers.After five years in the Marlins front office, Adrian Lorenzo is departing at season's end to pursue a full-time art career. Lorenzo most recently held the position of senior director of international operations. I marveled at how Lorenzo balanced both of his passions considering the reputation that baseball jobs have for being all-consuming. is the podcast that Lorenzo did with us last offseason.NL Wild Card race updates: the Brewers, Cubs and Reds won, while the Diamondbacks, Giants and Phillies lost. The Marlins are a half-game back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Giancarlo Stanton blasted his 400th career home run (267 of those came with the Fish). The Yankees have won seven of their last eight games to get back to .500. José Altuve homered three times within the first three innings of Houston's blowout win over the Rangers. Check out the latest for my extended thoughts on the Marlins' current playoff chances. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 50.7% chance to win their next game against the Dodgers, per FanGraphs. Edward Cabrera is poised to make his first career relief appearance behind opener JT Chargois. A sixth straight win would match the Marlins' longest streak of the season, which was set from June 2-7 against the lowly Athletics and Royals. Triple-A Jacksonville (6:35 p.m. ET), Double-A Pensacola (12:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are all on the road.Miguel Rojas was in good spirits heading into his first career series at LoanDepot Park as a visiting player. He said he will "forever be grateful" for how the Marlins treated him from 2015-2022. Rojas started at shortstop in the series opener and went 1-for-4 with a run scored.https://fishonfirst.com/at-the-ballpark/miguel-rojas-miami-return-quotes/Happy 21st birthday to Marlins RHP Xavier Meachem. The 10th-round draft pick is with Low-A Jupiter as he wraps up his first pro summer. Being utilized exclusively as a reliever, eight of his nine MiLB appearances have been scoreless. He's been striking out 34.2% of total batters faced.Our partners at FOCO have dozens of products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images-
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Offishial news, 9/5/23: Post-Labor Day grind begins
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I must admit, you're completely right on that haha. Thanks. -
Offishial news, 9/5/23: Post-Labor Day grind begins
Ely Sussman posted a topic in Miami Marlins Talk
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Monday's GamesNone 🫤 Marlins Podcast Episodes NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Phillies and Reds won, while the Brewers and Giants lost. Trea Turner homered for the seventh time in his last seven games. Justin Steele remains firmly in the NL Cy Young conversation after tossing eight scoreless innings and recording a career-high 12 strikeouts. The Marlins are a half-game back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Julio Urías was arrested on felony domestic violence charges. Urías previously served a suspension in 2019 stemming from a domestic violence incident. Previously scheduled to face the Marlins on Thursday, the Dodgers left-hander won't be traveling to Miami for the series. Lucas Giolito was destroyed by the Twins in his Guardians debut (3.0 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 3 HR). It got so ugly that Cleveland position player David Fry pitched even longer than Giolito did to save the club's other arms for more competitive circumstances.We’ve got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 5:30 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 46.8% chance to win their series opener against the Dodgers, per FanGraphs. It marks the beginning of a 16-game stretch without any scheduled off days for the Fish. Triple-A Jacksonville (6:35 p.m. ET), Double-A Pensacola (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are all on the road.I think Joey Wendle is overdue to have his playing time sharply reduced. He's in the midst of arguably the worst half-season by any hitter in Marlins history.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/joey-wendle-second-half-slump/Kevin Barral spoke to Troy Johnston about reaching the 20 HR/20 SB milestone. Johnston candidly analyzed how he would fit on the Marlins active roster right now (if given the opportunity).https://fishonfirst.com/farm/troy-johnston-20-20-season/Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers wants Marlins fans to give Miguel Rojas a standing ovation as he makes his return to LoanDepot Park.The Marlins are commemorating Childhood Cancer Awareness Day by bringing patients from Alex’s Place and their families to tonight's game. The players will wear special batting practice shirts that were designed by children undergoing treatment at Alex’s Place.Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
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What should the Marlins do with slumping Joey Wendle?
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
If Johnston was a solidly average fielder at 1B instead of a clear negative, I think he would've forced his way up by now to take Gurriel's job. I'm still of the opinion that they should make that change, but realistically, if it hasn't happened by now, it will not happen unless there is an injury. -
Joey Wendle was an MLB All-Star just two years ago and a key cog of the Miami Marlins lineup in early 2022. Entering this season, the Marlins projected Wendle and his lifetime 100 wRC+ as their primary shortstop, counting on somewhat of a bounce back from him after battling several minor injuries. There were moderate expectations placed on his shoulders, and he had ample motivation to meet those expectations as a first-time pending free agent. After yet another IL stint (right intercostal strain) and a mediocre month of May, Wendle began looking a lot like his usual self. The 33-year-old's signature series came against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park (June 27-29), going 8-for-12 at the plate en route to a Miami sweep. His batting average peaked at .290. He was on pace for 1.4 fWAR, slightly better than his previous season. Then the All-Star break arrived. The second half of Wendle's 2023 campaign has been one of the most severe slumps you'll ever see from a reputable hitter who supposedly has something left in the tank. And the Marlins cannot afford to tip-toe around it any longer. Wendle has a slash line of .139/.176/.178 since the break. That's a .354 OPS in those 39 games for somebody whose OPS has never dipped below .514 during any other 39-game stretch of his career! It is also the lowest half-season OPS in Marlins history (min. 100 PA). Placing second on that notorious list is the first half of Chris Coghlan's 2012 season, though that was interrupted by a demotion to the minors. The closest comp to what Wendle is doing would have to be the second half of Joe Panik's 2021 season...which led him directly into retirement. Lowest half-season OPS in Marlins history (min. 100 PA) | StatheadWhat has gone so wrong for Wendle? Well, his batting average on balls in play has been halved, from .350 pre-ASB to .171 post-ASB. That is problematic when you have zero home runs to compensate for it. Although it's discouraging to see an increase in his groundball rate and a reduction in his walk rate amid this slump, those tendencies did not hold him back from being serviceable in 2022. Clearly, there is some degree of bad luck involved here. However, making Wendle's futility more baffling is the fact that the Marlins have carefully platooned him. About 90% of the left-handed batter's plate appearances have come against righties, yet for the first time since his debut season, he's exhibiting reverse splits. There are no tasty matchups for him—he is nearly two months removed from his last multi-hit game. Wendle has historically fared well against offspeed pitches like changeups and splitters. Not so much recently. Wendle has zero hits against those pitch types since July 15. It's been a combination of chasing some of them below the strike zone and mistiming his swing on others that stay up. Opponents have noticed and responded by attacking him with offspeed stuff way more frequently. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/67a8af3b-2db2-4b57-adda-e0e0ffd188f9.mp4https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/7cd83135-a9a3-43ba-97a5-93cbe5a7d76b.mp4https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/d06b0ba9-0148-429d-8c51-4cc3fc28d169.mp4https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/3fe0f601-fcc8-4c51-bf60-03db1f7a39df.mp4Whenever a relatively steady veteran like Wendle plummets to sub-replacement level production, it's worth mentioning the possibility that he is grinding through some kind of injury. Whatever the true explanation, there is nothing to suggest that he's close to turning a corner. I don't think that the Marlins will nor should cut Wendle. He is the best defensive shortstop on their active roster, and by all accounts, a positive clubhouse influence. That being said, the days of Wendle as the strong side of Miami's SS platoon need to end immediately. The value of his glove does not come close to offsetting the superior offense—hitting and baserunning—that Jon Berti and Garrett Hampson provide. With each of their 25 remaining regular season games being so crucial, the Marlins ought to bench Wendle. I would only start him when both Berti and Hampson are unavailable due to rest or covering at non-SS positions. What do you think? Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
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2023 Marlins NL Wild Card tiebreaker breakdown
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I think the ship has already sailed on catching the Phillies. While it'd be uplifting to beat them in that series, can't see a scenario where the Marlins finish with the same or better record. So I have the significance of that on par with all the other divisional games. -
2023 Marlins NL Wild Card tiebreaker breakdown
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
Try to follow along with this: If Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure. If the three clubs have identical records against one another, then the team with the best intradivision record is the qualifier. -
Offishial news, 9/4/23: Marlins mop Nationals; Johnston goes 20/20
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Sunday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-nationals-9-3-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/03/b5f6d428-7e50e21d-7ad83a0d-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville) completed a 20 HR/20 SB season. He's the first Marlins minor leaguer to go 20/20 since Bryan Petersen in 2008! Ryan Weathers threw five scoreless innings and earned a win. More control issues for RHP Evan Fitterer (Pensacola), but overall, one of his best starts of the season (5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 6 K, 91 pitches/49 strikes). C Will Banfield hit his 20th home run. OF Chase Luttrell (Beloit) is in a 3-for-39 slump. Blue Wahoos OF Davis Bradshaw confirmed that an injury will sideline him throughout the Southern League playoffs. He had a .314/.383/.405 slash line (124 wRC+) in 86 games this season, albeit while facing much younger competition. Bookmark our injury/rehab tracker.https://fishonfirst.com/news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/The Marlins are riding a four-game winning streak, their longest since late June. They went a perfect 7-0 at Nationals Park this season. Similar to 2022, the seemingly large gap in the standings between them and the Nats can be explained by head-to-head record.Sandy Alcantara retook the MLB lead in innings pitched (184.2 IP). He also committed two errors and now leads all pitchers in that department as well with five.NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs and Phillies won, while the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Giants and Reds lost. The Marlins are in a three-way tie for the third Wild Card spot.On a related note, I'll be tracking the status of tiebreakers between the Marlins and other Wild Card contenders in the event that the final regular season standings aren't enough to determine postseason berths.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/2023-nl-wild-card-tiebreakers/Elsewhere around the majors, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman both went 0-for-4. Luis Arraez is now up by 21 points on them in the NL batting title race. Jorge López tossed a scoreless inning in his return to the Orioles.Entering this new week, the Marlins have 26.3% playoff odds, per FanGraphs.Our 2023 FOF Super Subscribers fantasy football league is set. The league is viewable here.With eight series remaining in the MLB regular season, Willyans is clinging to a slim lead in our 2023 Prediction Time contest. All Super Subscribers are encouraged to play along with us.https://fishonfirst.com/super-subscribers/marlins-prediction-time-leaderboard/Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images -
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Marlins admit Jorge López miscalculation, lose him via waiver claim
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Barely a month after acquiring Jorge López from the Minnesota Twins, the Miami Marlins quietly placed the struggling right-handed reliever on waivers. One of the last MLB teams in the waiver order, the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, placed a claim on him. On Saturday, López went back to Baltimore where he was an All-Star closer in 2022. His departure created room for Johnny Cueto to return from the injured list. The Marlins swapped Dylan Floro for López on July 26, valuing the latter's additional year of club control and trusting that he'd perform better with a change of scenery and subtle adjustments. Well... López with the Twins in 2023: 5.09 ERA, 5.92 FIP, -0.24 WPA in 35.1 IPLópez with the Marlins in 2023: 9.26 ERA, 5.32 FIP, -0.28 WPA in 11.2 IPAs a Marlin, López allowed an average of nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning. He authored only one perfect inning (in a low-leverage situation on August 13 with the club trailing by four runs). He continued to show glimpses of his ability with high-90s fastballs and a deep bag of pitches, but still too much hard contact and too many walks allowed, both deficiencies attributable to lousy control. The Marlins evidently didn't have faith in López meaningfully contributing in September or doing enough to justify what a 2024 contract offer would've cost via the arbitration system. Had López cleared waivers, he would have remained with the Marlins. In that scenario, presumably Geoff Hartlieb would've been optioned to make room for Cueto instead. Even if López flips a switch and becomes productive for the O's again, he will not be eligible to pitch for them in the postseason. However, he could still help them lock up the AL East title and a top-two record in the AL, which comes with a bye to the ALDS (and home-field advantage in that matchup). Baltimore is on the hook for 30 days' worth of his salary (approx. $569k). Checking in on Floro in Minnesota, he has a 6.30 ERA, 3.06 FIP and -0.25 WPA in 10.0 IP. The majority of his appearances have been successful, though his implosion on August 22 was largely responsible for a Twins loss. To tie a bow on this, I don't fault the Marlins for shopping Floro's expiring contract. Kim Ng thought creatively, as she often does, and got somebody who could potentially fill his shoes for the rest of 2023 and beyond. In this case, I thought the front office got too cute and should've accepted a conventional 40-grade prospect in return while securing a controllable 'pen arm in a separate deal. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First -
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The long ball blasts the Fish past the Nats
Ely Sussman replied to Nick Turok's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
The lack of SB has been jarring for a team that puts so many runners on first base. 29th in MLB with only 10 steals since the All-Star break despite having plenty of opportunities.- 2 replies
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