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Ely Sussman

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  1. Yup, that last part is an understatement. Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers and Braves each have very tough pitching staffs and have gotten stronger as the season has progressed (top 10 in MLB in ERA since the All-Star break).
  2. I think the ship has already sailed on catching the Phillies. While it'd be uplifting to beat them in that series, can't see a scenario where the Marlins finish with the same or better record. So I have the significance of that on par with all the other divisional games.
  3. Try to follow along with this: If Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure. If the three clubs have identical records against one another, then the team with the best intradivision record is the qualifier.
  4. Sunday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-nationals-9-3-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/03/b5f6d428-7e50e21d-7ad83a0d-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Sunday's Marlins MiLB Notes: 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville) completed a 20 HR/20 SB season. He's the first Marlins minor leaguer to go 20/20 since Bryan Petersen in 2008! Ryan Weathers threw five scoreless innings and earned a win. More control issues for RHP Evan Fitterer (Pensacola), but overall, one of his best starts of the season (5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 6 K, 91 pitches/49 strikes). C Will Banfield hit his 20th home run. OF Chase Luttrell (Beloit) is in a 3-for-39 slump. Blue Wahoos OF Davis Bradshaw confirmed that an injury will sideline him throughout the Southern League playoffs. He had a .314/.383/.405 slash line (124 wRC+) in 86 games this season, albeit while facing much younger competition. Bookmark our injury/rehab tracker.https://fishonfirst.com/news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/The Marlins are riding a four-game winning streak, their longest since late June. They went a perfect 7-0 at Nationals Park this season. Similar to 2022, the seemingly large gap in the standings between them and the Nats can be explained by head-to-head record.Sandy Alcantara retook the MLB lead in innings pitched (184.2 IP). He also committed two errors and now leads all pitchers in that department as well with five.NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs and Phillies won, while the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Giants and Reds lost. The Marlins are in a three-way tie for the third Wild Card spot.On a related note, I'll be tracking the status of tiebreakers between the Marlins and other Wild Card contenders in the event that the final regular season standings aren't enough to determine postseason berths.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/2023-nl-wild-card-tiebreakers/Elsewhere around the majors, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman both went 0-for-4. Luis Arraez is now up by 21 points on them in the NL batting title race. Jorge López tossed a scoreless inning in his return to the Orioles.Entering this new week, the Marlins have 26.3% playoff odds, per FanGraphs.Our 2023 FOF Super Subscribers fantasy football league is set. The league is viewable here.With eight series remaining in the MLB regular season, Willyans is clinging to a slim lead in our 2023 Prediction Time contest. All Super Subscribers are encouraged to play along with us.https://fishonfirst.com/super-subscribers/marlins-prediction-time-leaderboard/Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
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  7. Barely a month after acquiring Jorge López from the Minnesota Twins, the Miami Marlins quietly placed the struggling right-handed reliever on waivers. One of the last MLB teams in the waiver order, the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, placed a claim on him. On Saturday, López went back to Baltimore where he was an All-Star closer in 2022. His departure created room for Johnny Cueto to return from the injured list. The Marlins swapped Dylan Floro for López on July 26, valuing the latter's additional year of club control and trusting that he'd perform better with a change of scenery and subtle adjustments. Well... López with the Twins in 2023: 5.09 ERA, 5.92 FIP, -0.24 WPA in 35.1 IPLópez with the Marlins in 2023: 9.26 ERA, 5.32 FIP, -0.28 WPA in 11.2 IPAs a Marlin, López allowed an average of nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning. He authored only one perfect inning (in a low-leverage situation on August 13 with the club trailing by four runs). He continued to show glimpses of his ability with high-90s fastballs and a deep bag of pitches, but still too much hard contact and too many walks allowed, both deficiencies attributable to lousy control. The Marlins evidently didn't have faith in López meaningfully contributing in September or doing enough to justify what a 2024 contract offer would've cost via the arbitration system. Had López cleared waivers, he would have remained with the Marlins. In that scenario, presumably Geoff Hartlieb would've been optioned to make room for Cueto instead. Even if López flips a switch and becomes productive for the O's again, he will not be eligible to pitch for them in the postseason. However, he could still help them lock up the AL East title and a top-two record in the AL, which comes with a bye to the ALDS (and home-field advantage in that matchup). Baltimore is on the hook for 30 days' worth of his salary (approx. $569k). Checking in on Floro in Minnesota, he has a 6.30 ERA, 3.06 FIP and -0.25 WPA in 10.0 IP. The majority of his appearances have been successful, though his implosion on August 22 was largely responsible for a Twins loss. To tie a bow on this, I don't fault the Marlins for shopping Floro's expiring contract. Kim Ng thought creatively, as she often does, and got somebody who could potentially fill his shoes for the rest of 2023 and beyond. In this case, I thought the front office got too cute and should've accepted a conventional 40-grade prospect in return while securing a controllable 'pen arm in a separate deal. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First
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  11. Miami-Marlins-Game-Information-Friday-Sept.-1-at-WashingtonDownload
  12. I should have noted that today is the anniversary of the Nyjer Morgan/Chris Volstad/Gaby Sanchez brawl. Still a cherished memory.
  13. The lack of SB has been jarring for a team that puts so many runners on first base. 29th in MLB with only 10 steals since the All-Star break despite having plenty of opportunities.
  14. Thursday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-nationals-8-31-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/31/9552f569-b1831132-8daa1a1a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes https://open.spotify.com/episode/4HdN2hloBgCretTF0Macfn?si=ILwdyPDgQretXI_yIZbhowThursday's Marlins MiLB Notes: 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville) has reached base safely in all 30 games he's played with the Jumbo Shrimp this season. Nice final line for Edward Cabrera despite being relatively inefficient with his 98 pitches (5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K). The walk-less streak for INF Yiddi Cappe (Beloit) is up to 29 games, though he did reach safely on a hit by pitch. LHP Thomas White (Jupiter) threw 40 pitches in his full-season debut (1.2 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K). Having gone 12 days since his last game appearance, Tommy Nance was assigned to the Hammerheads just to get some work in (1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K).The Marlins put in waiver claims for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore. They were poised to deepen both their starting rotation and bullpen for the final month of regular season competition! Then the Guardians intervened, acquiring all three veteran pitchers for themselves. Although the Marlins can still make outside additions during September, Thursday was the final day for players changing organizations to be postseason-eligible for their new teams.https://fishonfirst.com/news/marlins-2023-waiver-claim-results/The Marlins went 10-17 in August, their worst record for any month in 2023. Aside from Josh Bell and Jake Burger of course, A.J. Puk was one of the few bright spots (10.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 15 K).Only five hard-hit balls for the Nationals on Thursday, tied for the 9th-fewest by any Marlins opponent this season.NL Wild Card race updates: the Giants won. The Marlins are three games back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first MLB player ever to hit 30-plus homers and steal 60-plus bases in a single season. The Braves just barely held off the Dodgers for a thrilling 8-7 win. The White Sox named Chris Getz as their new general manager. The Sox are promoting from within barely a week after firing top baseball executives Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn.The latest had much more reaction to Miami's lack of waiver wire pick-ups. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 59.7% chance to win their next game against the Nationals, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (doubleheader beginning at 5:05 p.m. ET), Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Single-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are all at home.Active rosters expand today from 26 spots to 28. I can confirm the report from Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald that INF Xavier Edwards is getting one of those spots. Leading the Triple-A International League batting title race, Edwards has been splitting time defensively between second base, third base and shortstop in recent weeks. He played in nine big league games earlier this season.Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers analyzes the excellence and historical significance of Eury Pérez's first 15 MLB starts.Enrollment for 2024 Marlins memberships is now open. The lowest price point averages out to $11 per game. Early enrollment continues through Sept. 5.Farewell to Jason Latimer, the Marlins senior vice president of communications and outreach. Back in 2018, which was his first year with the franchise, Latimer reached out to me at Fish Stripes to get acquainted and facilitate on-site credentialed coverage. Had he not opened the door for us back then, who knows what I'd be doing now or whether Fish On First would even exist. Thanks to Jason for his half-decade of assistance.Our partners at Homage have Flashback Friday-flavored products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
  15. It probably speaks to the total lack of faith in Edwards at SS. It was only this past month that he finally began getting occasional reps there and those have gone poorly. Not impossible for him to someday become adequate at it. For the time being, he just isn't close to helping out there.
  16. The money owed to Clevinger was unreasonable due to the buyout of his 2024 option. Would not have been worth it. But very bad look for them to come up completely empty.
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  19. The league has quickly filled up. I could expand from 12 teams to 14, but you would have to click the link above to sign up as a Super Subscriber first.
  20. Recognizing an opportunity to add accomplished veterans to their roster for the final month of the MLB regular season (and a potential postseason run), the Miami Marlins placed claims on players prior to Thursday's deadline, Craig Mish of SportsGrid confirms. Alas, they whiffed and were not awarded any of them. The Marlins went after Los Angeles Angels pitchers Reynaldo López, Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore, according to Mish. However, the Cleveland Guardians surprisingly sniped all three to keep their fading AL Central division title hopes alive. With a 64-70 record, Cleveland had waiver claim priority over the Marlins (66-67). Their playoff odds were only 5.3% entering Thursday, per FanGraphs, about half as high as Miami's (10.5%). The notable bats on the market were Harrison Bader of the New York Yankees and the Angels' Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk. The outfield admittedly isn't among the Marlins' biggest weaknesses at the moment, but the offense as a whole is in dire straits—their bats have posted a 81 wRC+ since the All-Star break (27th in MLB), including a 55 wRC+ since August 19 (29th in MLB). Trade deadline pick-ups Josh Bell and Jake Burger haven't been mighty enough to offset slumps from many of their teammates. When accounting for those hitters' recent struggles, their potential fit on the active roster and the money still owed to them (approximately one-sixth of their 2023 salaries), the Marlins passed. We know that because Bader and Renfroe both went to the Cincinnati Reds, who were behind them in the waiver claim order. Grichuk passed through waivers unclaimed. The Marlins are three games back of the National League's final Wild Card spot entering Thursday's contest in Washington. They'll need to leapfrog the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks...and the Reds. So even if the Marlins didn't feel like Bader or Renfroe would move the needle for them, at least claiming them would've blocked a rival from addressing its needs. It'll be a tough look if either of them catch fire in September. While deflating to see the Marlins come away empty, this doesn't necessarily mean they will be complacent. Active roster sizes expand on Friday from 26 spots to 28. Prospects 1B Troy Johnston, INF Xavier Edwards and OF Dane Myers have nothing left to prove with Triple-A Jacksonville. RHP Anthony Maldonado has been unhittable for the past four months. At least one of them will get a shot to help halt the club's second-half collapse, right?
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