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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Marlins admit Jorge López miscalculation, lose him via waiver claim
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Barely a month after acquiring Jorge López from the Minnesota Twins, the Miami Marlins quietly placed the struggling right-handed reliever on waivers. One of the last MLB teams in the waiver order, the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, placed a claim on him. On Saturday, López went back to Baltimore where he was an All-Star closer in 2022. His departure created room for Johnny Cueto to return from the injured list. The Marlins swapped Dylan Floro for López on July 26, valuing the latter's additional year of club control and trusting that he'd perform better with a change of scenery and subtle adjustments. Well... López with the Twins in 2023: 5.09 ERA, 5.92 FIP, -0.24 WPA in 35.1 IPLópez with the Marlins in 2023: 9.26 ERA, 5.32 FIP, -0.28 WPA in 11.2 IPAs a Marlin, López allowed an average of nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning. He authored only one perfect inning (in a low-leverage situation on August 13 with the club trailing by four runs). He continued to show glimpses of his ability with high-90s fastballs and a deep bag of pitches, but still too much hard contact and too many walks allowed, both deficiencies attributable to lousy control. The Marlins evidently didn't have faith in López meaningfully contributing in September or doing enough to justify what a 2024 contract offer would've cost via the arbitration system. Had López cleared waivers, he would have remained with the Marlins. In that scenario, presumably Geoff Hartlieb would've been optioned to make room for Cueto instead. Even if López flips a switch and becomes productive for the O's again, he will not be eligible to pitch for them in the postseason. However, he could still help them lock up the AL East title and a top-two record in the AL, which comes with a bye to the ALDS (and home-field advantage in that matchup). Baltimore is on the hook for 30 days' worth of his salary (approx. $569k). Checking in on Floro in Minnesota, he has a 6.30 ERA, 3.06 FIP and -0.25 WPA in 10.0 IP. The majority of his appearances have been successful, though his implosion on August 22 was largely responsible for a Twins loss. To tie a bow on this, I don't fault the Marlins for shopping Floro's expiring contract. Kim Ng thought creatively, as she often does, and got somebody who could potentially fill his shoes for the rest of 2023 and beyond. In this case, I thought the front office got too cute and should've accepted a conventional 40-grade prospect in return while securing a controllable 'pen arm in a separate deal. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First -
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The long ball blasts the Fish past the Nats
Ely Sussman replied to Nick Turok's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
The lack of SB has been jarring for a team that puts so many runners on first base. 29th in MLB with only 10 steals since the All-Star break despite having plenty of opportunities.- 2 replies
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Offishial news, 9/1/23: August mercifully over; roster expansion
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Thursday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-nationals-8-31-23/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/31/9552f569-b1831132-8daa1a1a-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes https://open.spotify.com/episode/4HdN2hloBgCretTF0Macfn?si=ILwdyPDgQretXI_yIZbhowThursday's Marlins MiLB Notes: 1B Troy Johnston (Jacksonville) has reached base safely in all 30 games he's played with the Jumbo Shrimp this season. Nice final line for Edward Cabrera despite being relatively inefficient with his 98 pitches (5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K). The walk-less streak for INF Yiddi Cappe (Beloit) is up to 29 games, though he did reach safely on a hit by pitch. LHP Thomas White (Jupiter) threw 40 pitches in his full-season debut (1.2 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K). Having gone 12 days since his last game appearance, Tommy Nance was assigned to the Hammerheads just to get some work in (1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K).The Marlins put in waiver claims for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore. They were poised to deepen both their starting rotation and bullpen for the final month of regular season competition! Then the Guardians intervened, acquiring all three veteran pitchers for themselves. Although the Marlins can still make outside additions during September, Thursday was the final day for players changing organizations to be postseason-eligible for their new teams.https://fishonfirst.com/news/marlins-2023-waiver-claim-results/The Marlins went 10-17 in August, their worst record for any month in 2023. Aside from Josh Bell and Jake Burger of course, A.J. Puk was one of the few bright spots (10.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 15 K).Only five hard-hit balls for the Nationals on Thursday, tied for the 9th-fewest by any Marlins opponent this season.NL Wild Card race updates: the Giants won. The Marlins are three games back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first MLB player ever to hit 30-plus homers and steal 60-plus bases in a single season. The Braves just barely held off the Dodgers for a thrilling 8-7 win. The White Sox named Chris Getz as their new general manager. The Sox are promoting from within barely a week after firing top baseball executives Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn.The latest had much more reaction to Miami's lack of waiver wire pick-ups. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 59.7% chance to win their next game against the Nationals, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (doubleheader beginning at 5:05 p.m. ET), Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Single-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are all at home.Active rosters expand today from 26 spots to 28. I can confirm the report from Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald that INF Xavier Edwards is getting one of those spots. Leading the Triple-A International League batting title race, Edwards has been splitting time defensively between second base, third base and shortstop in recent weeks. He played in nine big league games earlier this season.Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers analyzes the excellence and historical significance of Eury Pérez's first 15 MLB starts.Enrollment for 2024 Marlins memberships is now open. The lowest price point averages out to $11 per game. Early enrollment continues through Sept. 5.Farewell to Jason Latimer, the Marlins senior vice president of communications and outreach. Back in 2018, which was his first year with the franchise, Latimer reached out to me at Fish Stripes to get acquainted and facilitate on-site credentialed coverage. Had he not opened the door for us back then, who knows what I'd be doing now or whether Fish On First would even exist. Thanks to Jason for his half-decade of assistance.Our partners at Homage have Flashback Friday-flavored products in their Miami Marlins collection. Shop here.Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images -
Marlins get no waiver claim reinforcements for playoff push
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
It probably speaks to the total lack of faith in Edwards at SS. It was only this past month that he finally began getting occasional reps there and those have gone poorly. Not impossible for him to someday become adequate at it. For the time being, he just isn't close to helping out there. -
Why Marlins should be all over waiver wire veterans
Ely Sussman replied to Ely Sussman's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
The money owed to Clevinger was unreasonable due to the buyout of his 2024 option. Would not have been worth it. But very bad look for them to come up completely empty. -
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Join the 2023 Fish On First fantasy football league
Ely Sussman replied to Fish On First Staff's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
The league has quickly filled up. I could expand from 12 teams to 14, but you would have to click the link above to sign up as a Super Subscriber first. -
Marlins get no waiver claim reinforcements for playoff push
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Recognizing an opportunity to add accomplished veterans to their roster for the final month of the MLB regular season (and a potential postseason run), the Miami Marlins placed claims on players prior to Thursday's deadline, Craig Mish of SportsGrid confirms. Alas, they whiffed and were not awarded any of them. The Marlins went after Los Angeles Angels pitchers Reynaldo López, Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore, according to Mish. However, the Cleveland Guardians surprisingly sniped all three to keep their fading AL Central division title hopes alive. With a 64-70 record, Cleveland had waiver claim priority over the Marlins (66-67). Their playoff odds were only 5.3% entering Thursday, per FanGraphs, about half as high as Miami's (10.5%). The notable bats on the market were Harrison Bader of the New York Yankees and the Angels' Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk. The outfield admittedly isn't among the Marlins' biggest weaknesses at the moment, but the offense as a whole is in dire straits—their bats have posted a 81 wRC+ since the All-Star break (27th in MLB), including a 55 wRC+ since August 19 (29th in MLB). Trade deadline pick-ups Josh Bell and Jake Burger haven't been mighty enough to offset slumps from many of their teammates. When accounting for those hitters' recent struggles, their potential fit on the active roster and the money still owed to them (approximately one-sixth of their 2023 salaries), the Marlins passed. We know that because Bader and Renfroe both went to the Cincinnati Reds, who were behind them in the waiver claim order. Grichuk passed through waivers unclaimed. The Marlins are three games back of the National League's final Wild Card spot entering Thursday's contest in Washington. They'll need to leapfrog the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks...and the Reds. So even if the Marlins didn't feel like Bader or Renfroe would move the needle for them, at least claiming them would've blocked a rival from addressing its needs. It'll be a tough look if either of them catch fire in September. While deflating to see the Marlins come away empty, this doesn't necessarily mean they will be complacent. Active roster sizes expand on Friday from 26 spots to 28. Prospects 1B Troy Johnston, INF Xavier Edwards and OF Dane Myers have nothing left to prove with Triple-A Jacksonville. RHP Anthony Maldonado has been unhittable for the past four months. At least one of them will get a shot to help halt the club's second-half collapse, right? -
Offishial news, 8/31/23: Waiver claim day; sub-.500
Ely Sussman posted a topic in Miami Marlins Talk
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Wednesday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/tb-3-mia-0-luzardos-brilliance-spoiled-by-rays/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-08/30/eefa257d-5fc4f181-e371bbea-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's Marlins MiLB Notes: OF Tanner Allen (Pensacola) hit his first Double-A home run. The walk-less streak for INF Yiddi Cappe (Beloit) is up to 28 games. He's got a .210 on-base percentage during that stretch. RHP Jacob Miller (Jupiter) completed six innings for the first time as a pro, getting there efficiently thanks to 12 groundball outs.For the first time since May 25, the Marlins find themselves below the .500 mark. They've lost eight of the last 10 games, scoring only 1.7 runs per game in that span.Andrew Nardi (left hand) and Jorge Soler (right hip) remain day-to-day. We're monitoring the health status of all Marlins major league and minor league players via the injury/rehab tracker.https://fishonfirst.com/news/tracking-miami-marlins-injury-rehab-updates/Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Marlins are expected to place waiver claims on at least one of the available Angels relievers, those being Reynaldo López, Matt Moore and Dominic Leone. As I wrote on Wednesday, López makes the most sense for them (and that was before yet another David Robertson stinker). In just a few hours, we'll find out if any of the waiver wire options were awarded to the Marlins.https://fishonfirst.com/opinion/marlins-waiver-claim-targets/NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs and Reds won, while the Diamondbacks, Giants and Phillies lost. Bryce Harper launched his 300th career home run. The Marlins are three games back of the third Wild Card spot.Elsewhere around the majors, Tommy Edman's walk-off homer snapped Josh Hader's three-month streak without allowing an earned run. With still all of September ahead of them, the Braves have established a new single-season franchise record with 250 long balls.We’ve got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 6:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 58.6% chance to win their series opener against the Nationals, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (doubleheader beginning at 4:00 p.m. ET) are all at home.Isaac Azout's "Flipped Fish" interview series will catch up with former Marlins players when they return to LoanDepot Park as members of opposing teams. Here's his conversation with Harold Ramirez of the Rays: Following the game tonight, hop in the livestream of the latest Battered Marlins Fans episode, where I'll be their special guest.Photo by Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images
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Why Marlins should be all over waiver wire veterans
Ely Sussman posted a topic in Miami Marlins Talk
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No matter who they add during the waning hours of August, the Miami Marlins are longshots. Let's be clear about that. They enter Wednesday with season-low 13.6% playoff odds, per FanGraphs, needing to leapfrog three of the other National League Wild Card hopefuls to clinch a postseason berth. There is no combination of newly waived veterans who are guaranteed to move the needle for them. But they have to try. Between offseason trades and midseason reinforcements, the Marlins have been willing to part with long-term assets to maximize their chances of making it to October in 2023. Now, we're at a juncture where more useful players are available for merely one month's salary and a roster spot. No other strings attached. The waiver claim priority order goes by ascending winning percentage. By being worse than any of the other realistic AL/NL contenders, the .500 Marlins get priority over them. While half of the MLB teams are below the Marlins in the standings, it wouldn't be logical for those non-contenders to splurge on pending free agents. Very convenient for the struggling Fish. It'd be almost impossible to justify passing up on Los Angeles Angels right-hander Reynaldo López considering his affordability and recent excellence. He is owed barely $600k for the final month of the season. Dating back to the beginning of July, López has a 1.37 ERA and 2.05 FIP. Really, for the better part of two years, he's been a great setup man. https://bdata-producedclips.mlb.com/f8f55f27-b4f8-4cc5-b836-9745eb296096.mp4The Marlins tried to upgrade the right side of their bullpen in July via the acquisitions of David Robertson and Jorge López. Neither have panned out. Reynaldo should immediately vault past them to pitch in high-leverage situations if claimed. Like López, Lucas Giolito began 2023 with the Chicago White Sox before being dealt to the Angels at the trade deadline. Unlike López, his tenure with the Halos has been mostly miserable (6.89 ERA and 6.82 FIP) and his remaining salary is more substantial (approx. $1.7M). That being said, Giolito's main issue lately is yielding home runs (13 allowed in his last eight starts). LoanDepot Park can help with that. Giolito has higher upside as Miami's fifth starter than Johnny Cueto or Bryan Hoeing do. If the club decides to utilize a six-man rotation in September, he'd be a more desirable option than Edward Cabrera as well because at least he can be counted on to eat innings. There is no safe bet to assist the Marlins' struggling offense. Outfielders Harrison Bader (42 wRC+), Randal Grichuk (37 wRC+) and Hunter Renfroe (36 wRC+) have each gone ice cold in August. However, Renfroe still possesses awesome raw power; Grichuk was raking for the Colorado Rockies (even outside of Coors Field) before being traded; and Bader is the best contact hitter of the bunch while contributing as a baserunner and legitimate defender in center field and he's been pounding left-handed pitching. I'm torn between Bader and Grichuk as my preference here. Either guy would help the Marlins protect Jorge Soler's health down the stretch, allowing him to be used as a full-time designated hitter. Plus they can't be any worse at the plate than over-the-hill Yuli Gurriel. https://fishonfirst.com/news/miami-marlins-playoff-race-update-8-30-23/Matt Moore (Angels), Mike Clevinger (White Sox), José Cisnero (Tigers) and Carlos Carrasco (Mets) are also out there on the wire. Creating room on the Marlins 40-man roster for multiple waiver claims is a non-issue. Transfer Avisaíl García to the 60-day injured list. Recall Sixto Sánchez and do the same. Designate Geoff Hartlieb or Tommy Nance for assignment. Bottom line: if Marlins leadership still believes in this team, they cannot remain idle. Continue adding talented vets who fit your needs (and block them from getting through to the NL clubs you're chasing after). Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins

