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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Enjoy top plays from Miami Marlins outfielder Victor Mesa Jr.! Mesa spent his age-21 season with the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos. In 123 games played, he slashed .242/.308/.412 (91 wRC+) with 18 HR and 16 SB. He also had 11 outfield assists. In October 2018, the Marlins signed Mesa along with older brother, Victor Victor Mesa. Although Victor Victor received the much larger signing bonus at the time, Victor Jr. has clearly established himself as the better player. He's likely to earn a 40-man roster spot in November and advance to the Triple-A level next year. Where would you rank Mesa among the top prospects in the Marlins organization?
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What to expect from first phase of Marlins offseason roster moves
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
The Miami Marlins have had a chance to catch their breath during the week since they parted ways with general manager Kim Ng, but the Major League Baseball transaction calendar will soon require them to get back to business. Interim GM Brian Chattin and principal owner Bruce Sherman have moves to make between now and early November. Entering Monday, the Marlins 40-man roster is at 39 players. Several of them are goners following the World Series as the team makes room to reinstate members of the 60-day injured list. Yuli Gurriel, David Robertson and Joey Wendle are pending free agents. Although there is an exclusive five-day negotiating window between free agents and their former clubs, it's doubtful that new deals will be consummated so soon in these cases. Gurriel and Wendle are low-priority bench players. Robertson surely will want to test the open market after a rocky experience in Miami. Johnny Cueto and Matt Barnes will join them in free agency after their 2024 club options are declined. Due to injuries and illness, Cueto was limited to 13 sub-replacement-level appearances in 2023. As much as the Marlins need a veteran innings-eater next season, Cueto ain't that guy. They'll pay him a $2.5 million buyout to go away rather than pick up his $10.5 million option. Barnes is coming off a slightly better season than Cueto and has a slightly cheaper option ($9 million), but he's also a middle reliever coming off hip surgery. No reason to overthink this. Barnes will take home a $2.75 million buyout. Barnes wasn't counting against the 40-man, but Gurriel, Robertson, Wendle and Cueto were. Their subtractions take the roster count from 39 to 35. Anthony Bender (Tommy John surgery), Jonathan Davis (right meniscus surgery), Max Meyer (Tommy John surgery) and Trevor Rogers (right lat strain) will each be reinstated from the 60-day IL. Barring setbacks, all four are expected to be ready for spring training and hold positive trade value. It's an easy call to re-add them to the 40-man, bringing the Marlins back up to 39 players. Tommy Nance's campaign began with a shoulder strain, ended with an oblique strain, and in between, he never threw a pitch for the Marlins (though he was effective on minor league rehab assignments). I don't have a feel for what the Marlins will do with him. They temporarily have room for him on the roster and he'll be cheap in 2024 (pre-arb), so no urgency to get rid of him during "Phase I" of offseason transactions. All-Star Jorge Soler is opting out of his contract, forgoing the $13 million salary he's currently in line for, knowing there will be more money out there for him. I recommend that the Marlins extend a qualifying offer to Soler, retaining him for approximately $20.5 million if he accepts and making themselves eligible to receive draft-pick compensation if he declines and signs elsewhere. Will they? Likely not. No outcome would surprise me in the case of Josh Bell. Like Soler, he can opt out and test the market as one of the most talented run producers in the 2023-24 free agent class. Unlike Soler, he would not be bogged down by draft-pick compensation because he's ineligible for a qualifying offer. However, his existing contract already calls for a $16.5 million salary and his 2023 production was below average by first base/designated hitter standards, although he finished on a very high note. Bell's agent, Scott Boras, has historically encouraged his clients to enter free agency when they're on the fence. My best guess is he'll opt out. Lastly, there is Jon Berti's situation. In February, he signed a contract that included a club option for 2024. The option's value has increased from $3.5 million to $3.625 million based on his total plate appearances from this past season, and it comes with a $25k buyout. I mention Berti last because he'll be on the 40-man either way and remain under the Marlins' control. If they decline the option, it just means they feel he would settle for less than $3.6 million to avoid arbitration. After posting a shiny .294 batting average and setting career highs in most counting stats (other than stolen bases), I predict that the Marlins will pick up the option. Previewing "Phase II"Coming up in mid-November, MLB teams have to determine which Rule 5 Draft-eligible prospects to protect on their 40-man roster and which pre-arb and arbitration-eligible major leaguers they want to tender 2024 contracts to. It's unclear whether the Marlins' new baseball operations chief will be in place by then. Regardless of who's calling the shots, expect outfielder Victor Mesa Jr. to be protected and Jacob Stallings to be non-tendered. I'll have another article out explaining why in greater detail after Phase I is complete. Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins- 4 comments
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Offishial news, 10/23/23: Game 7; "The Locker Room;" Melvin to the Giants?
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Sunday's GamesThe Dominican Winter League season has just begun, while the Arizona Fall League is entering its third-to-last week. Check our Marlins fall/winter ball tracker regularly for updates.In postseason news, Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers) improved to 4-0 this month, completing at least six innings in each of those starts. Adolis García's grand slam secured Sunday's victory, setting up a winner-take-all ALCS Game 7.Elsewhere around the majors, Padres manager Bob Melvin is interviewing for the same position with the Giants and considered the "leading candidate" to get it. Melvin's imminent departure from San Diego reportedly stems from a rift between he and general manager A.J. Preller.The Phillies attempt to remain undefeated at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. A win tonight punches their ticket to the World Series. Max Scherzer and Cristian Javier are the probable starters in Houston with the American League pennant hanging in the balance.I prepare you for what the first phase of Marlins offseason roster moves will look like. It remains hard to gauge whether or not Josh Bell will exercise his opt-out, but I lean yes.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series keeps expanding. The latest installments cover Jesús Sánchez and Johnny Cueto. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.Former Marlins reliever AJ Ramos debuted his new show, " ," taking us inside the mind of a professional athlete and finding a balance between life on and off the field. Outfielder Noah Williamson was the Marlins' 19th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. He was cut this past summer before advancing beyond the Low-A level due to severe swing-and-miss issues. I only bring this up because he's made an unconventional career move, signing with the Hyogo Bravers of Japan's Sawakami Kansai Independent League. Good luck to Williamson! On this day 20 years ago, the Marlins beat the Yankees in Game 5 of the World Series. The Marlins haven't played a postseason home game since then.Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images -
Someday, the Miami Marlins will likely have to compete against their ex-general manager Kim Ng once she lands a gig with another MLB team's front office. That day might not be coming this offseason, though. Ng was "thought to be of strong interest" to the Boston Red Sox, Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive report, the only other franchise actively searching for a new baseball operations department leader. But on Friday, she declined to interview with them. While "the reasons for Ng’s refusal are unknown," there are plenty of other prominent executives who have done the same during the month-plus since Boston's chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was fired: Traditionally, working for the Red Sox came with the flexibility of a top-five MLB payroll, but ownership tightened the purse strings during Bloom's tenure. The expectation to win World Series titles is still there, contributing to the frequent turnover that the Sox have had since Theo Epstein's tenure ended. The New York Mets could be in the market for a GM to replace Billy Eppler, who resigned earlier this month. However, David Stearns just took over as their president of baseball operations. Ng reportedly parted with the Marlins largely due to Bruce Sherman's plan to hire a POBO to oversee her, so it's difficult to imagine her going there (unless ultra-wealthy Mets owner Steve Cohen overwhelms her with a massive salary and long-term job security). It's possible that other teams who currently have a GM as their top decision-maker could target Ng to be their POBO, reacting to her sudden availability rather than conducting broad searches like the Red Sox and Marlins. If not, perhaps she'll bide her time in an advisory role until the 2024-25 hiring cycle begins.
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Thursday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's fall/winter ball notes: It was Opening Day for LIDOM in the Dominican Republic. The only Marlin on an active roster was CF Dane Myers (Gigantes del Cibao), who went 0-for-2 with a run scored. In the AFL, C Paul McIntosh and SS Nasim Nuñez each recorded a hit. LHP Evan Taylor pitched a scoreless inning of relief.Listen back to Thursday's State of the Fish, our first Twitter Space of the Marlins offseason.In postseason news, NLCS Game 3 starters Ranger Suárez and Brandon Pfaadt threw up zeroes into the sixth inning. The Phillies took a 1-0 lead on a wild pitch in the seventh, but the Diamondbacks immediately answered back and then walked off to victory on Ketel Marte's RBI single. The Phillies are still up 2-1 in the series. Both ALCS Game 4 starters had lousy outings, but the Astros bullpen was exponentially better than the Rangers. Another big night at the plate for Yordan Alvarez (2-for-4, 3 RBI) helped even up the series.Elsewhere around the majors, Jim Leyland is among eight nominees to be considered by the Baseball Hall of Fame's Contemporary Baseball Era Committee for the Class of 2024. The 1997 World Series champion needs to receive votes from at least 75% of the committee members to be elected. Veteran right-hander Michael Fulmer underwent UCL revision surgery that's expected to cost him the entire 2024 season. He pitched for the Cubs this past year.Both League Championship Series matchups resume tonight. Road teams are undefeated so far in the ALCS and the same goes for home teams in the NLCS.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series keeps expanding. The latest installments cover Luis Arraez and David Robertson. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.It isn't hard to find national media columns roasting the Marlins, including Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs, Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. I have found that many of these articles overlook key facts to push a neat narrative, though at least in Heyman's case, there is interesting reporting about how Kim Ng overruled the majority of the club's decision-makers to select Skip Schumaker as manager over Matt Quatraro.Nasim Nuñez tells Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald why it's so important to disconnect from baseball when away from the field.Barely a week post-surgery, Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s right foot is tough to look at, though his recovery appears to be going as planned.Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images
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Wednesday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's AFL/winter ball notes: Solid start for RHP Ike Buxton (5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K), matching the highest strikeout total of his pro career. LHP Dale Stanavich followed with a scoreless inning of relief. 3B Jacob Berry went 3-for-5 with his first home run of the fall league. 2B Nasim Nunez went 1-for-5 with a double.Subscribe to Fish On First wherever you get your podcasts to check out our extended conversation with Marlins insider Craig Mish! He explains why ownership had concerns about the organization's sustainability and why Kim Ng wasn't willing to go along Bruce Sherman's vision. The pod references reporting from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic.Jesús Luzardo is a finalist for the NL Gold Glove award along with pitchers Taijuan Walker and Zack Wheeler, Rawlings Baseball announced on Wednesday. Eight Marlins players have previously won Gold Gloves, but only one pitcher (Mark Buehrle in 2012). Aside from Luzardo, no other Marlins were finalists at their respective positions this year. The award winners will be announced on November 5. Elsewhere around baseball, the Astros spoiled Max Scherzer's return from injury to win ALCS Game 3. Jose Altuve now has 25 career postseason homers (for context, Luis Arraez has 24 career regular season homers). The Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) announced the implementation of an automatic ball-strike system for the 2024 season. The KBO is generally considered the world's third-most competitive baseball league behind only MLB and Japan's NPB. MLB officials will surely be monitoring this situation closely.The latest included our final thoughts on Ng, what the Marlins should be prioritizing in the search for her replacement and observations about the MLB postseason. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/Tonight brings us an LCS doubleheader. Ranger Suárez takes the mound for the Phillies, having allowed just one total run in his previous two postseason starts.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series keeps expanding. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.Just Baseball updated their Top 100 MLB prospects list. The lone Marlin on there, RHP Noble Meyer, ranks 59th.Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers endorses Michael Hill for a second stint as Marlins president of baseball operations. "From what I’ve heard over the years, Hill’s 2020 departure from the Marlins was orchestrated by the departed (Derek) Jeter," Geffner writes. "There’s some question as to whether or not Sherman was even informed in advance that Hill would be leaving the club he served for nearly 20 years."Christina De Nicola of MLB.com mentions teenagers SS Fabian López and OF Andrés Valor as possible breakout prospects for the Marlins in 2024.Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
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The timing complicated this process as well. If Sherman had sought a new president a year ago to fill the Jeter void and thoroughly evaluate Kim, it would've been more understandable. But it's bizarre that after he had the confidence to allow her to call the shots all year and she did so successfully, he backs out of committing long term.
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Offishial news, 10/17/23: Bruce Sherman's lack of trust in Kim Ng
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Monday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes https://open.spotify.com/episode/0eTvvh6tylPRBRdejsNgcY?si=TZg544A4Sju3cV69Q80qUQMonday's AFL/winter ball updates: IF Nasim Nuñez went 1-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases and IF Jacob Berry went 0-for-3 with a walk. Nuñez has gone 8-for-8 on steal attempts in his nine games played. RHP Zach McCambley pitched a scoreless inning. The Peoria Javelinas have lost four of their last five games.Kim Ng is not coming back to the Marlins. Bruce Sherman reportedly offered her a contract extension to continue as general manager, but under the condition that he would pursue a new top executive to serve as president of baseball operations. I have many thoughts about this messy situation as expressed in the podcast episodes embedded above. To be concise, it's disappointing to see the Marlins hemorrhaging leadership and brainpower, and I wish Ng immense success when she inevitably lands with another MLB front office. While Sherman may have been uncomfortable elevating Ng to president of baseball ops given her mixed track record as GM, wouldn't that be preferable to starting from scratch? Doesn't it send a horrible message to job candidates that their predecessor wasn't appreciated by ownership on the heels of such a successful season? Brian Chattin is serving as the club's interim GM.https://fishonfirst.com/news/kim-ng-marlins-part-ways/Elsewhere around the majors, the Rangers are still undefeated in postseason competition after holding on to win their second straight ALCS road game. José Leclerc has pitched in all seven of those contests. The Phillies led wire to wire in their Game 1 victory over the Diamondbacks. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper (who was celebrating his 31st birthday) and Nick Castellanos each homered off of Zac Gallen in their first plate appearances.A raucous Citizens Bank Park will be hosting NLCS Game 2 tonight.Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reminds us that just a few weeks ago, Sherman said Ng was doing a "fabulous" job. But Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic describes Sherman as "a huge proponent of analytics" who has "different ideas regarding personnel decisions and where some of the team’s resources should be allotted." Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers explains why Sherman's handling of her should not come as a surprise.Kevin Barral reports on Jacob Berry's fall league performance, including Berry's reflections on the 2023 regular season.https://fishonfirst.com/farm/jacob-berry-arizona-fall-league-quotes/Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series keeps expanding. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins- 4 comments
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It is unfortunately an undesirable job opening. This situation only adds to that. How can anybody get genuinely excited about it when their predecessor didn't get a reasonable contract offer coming off a successful year?
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In a baffling turn of events, the Miami Marlins are parting ways with general manager Kim Ng, as first reported by Craig Mish of SportsGrid. The first woman GM in MLB history leaves the organization after only three seasons. Here's the statement that Marlins chairman and principal owner Bruce Sherman sent out Monday morning: And here is Ng's side of it as relayed through Tyler Kepner of The Athletic: Longtime Marlins assistant GM Brian Chattin will serve as interim GM during the search progress, according to a since-deleted tweet by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins had a .453 winning percentage (220-266 record) during the Ng era, but that includes a 15-win improvement from 2022 to 2023 and the franchise's first "normal" postseason berth in 20 years (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign). Operating with Sherman's limited payroll and a barren farm system, Ng excelled in trades to construct a tight-knit club with a knack for winning tight games. It was widely known as far back as spring training that Ng was entering the final guaranteed year of her contract. Even if 2023 had not been so successful, the idea of her running baseball operations without any long-term security was absurd. The Fish On First staff persistently advocated for Sherman to sign her to an extension. According to Ng's words above, they were attempting to find common ground after the Marlins were bounced from the NL Wild Card Series, but failed to do so. At the center of the disagreement, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports, was Sherman's desire to hire an additional Marlins executive for Ng to report to. Although her title would remain the same, it'd essentially be a demotion to no longer serve as the lead baseball operations decision-maker. Looking at this from Sherman's perspective, Ng was inefficient in free agency, whiffing on sub-replacement-level veterans Avisaíl García ($53M), Jean Segura ($17M) and Johnny Cueto ($8.5M), though coming out okay on Jorge Soler ($36M). Even with many prospects graduating from eligibility or being used as trade capital during her tenure, the lack of impact talent left in the pipeline is worrisome. Their existing player development approach clearly needs to be adjusted. Although I woke up on Monday expecting Ng to stay with the Marlins, I can't say that I'm shocked about this news. After all, she was handpicked by Derek Jeter, who left his CEO position in early 2022. Ng did not hold a formal end-of-season press conference with the media and every day that passed by without reassurance about her status made a break-up seem slightly more plausible. I'm disappointed that the organization couldn't find a way to maintain continuity at such a crucial position coming off an exhilarating year. Ng ought to be highly coveted by other MLB teams in free agency. The Boston Red Sox seek new baseball ops leadership and the New York Mets are in the market for a GM to report to David Stearns. Despite being repeatedly passed over for top executive jobs in the early 2000s, she now has tangible results to validate her decades of front office experience. Aside from Chattin, internal replacement candidates include fellow assistant GMs Dan Greenlee and Oz Ocampo. Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins
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Both options who are more analytically inclined than Ng. The ideal configuration to me would've been hiring one of them as GM and elevating Ng to president of baseball ops.
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Sunday's GamesLHP Sean Nolin became the latest eligible player in the Marlins organization to elect minor league free agency. Nolin made just one forgettable mop-up relief appearance for the big league team, spending most of the year on the injured list.Elsewhere around the majors, Jordan Montgomery outdueled Justin Verlander in ALCS Game 1 as the Rangers shut out the Astros. Texas rookie outfielder Evan Carter extended his postseason hit streak to six games (the Rangers have won all six of those games). Giants assistant coach Alyssa Nakken interviewed for the team's managerial vacancy. She's believed to be the first woman ever to receive a formal interview for an MLB managerial job.Baseball won't be included in the 2024 Paris Olympics, but it's coming back for the 2028 edition in Los Angeles. The sport was part of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics after being absent in 2012 and 2016. The United States hasn't won the gold medal since 2000.Game 2 of the ALCS is coming up today, followed by Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler facing off in the NLCS opener. The Phillies are 10-2 in postseason home games dating back to last year.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review series keeps expanding. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff.On Friday, Luis Arraez and Charles Johnson paid a visit to Joe DiMaggio Children's Hospital to deliver Totes for Hope comfort bags to patients. They spent quality time with the kids as Noah Berger documented.Happy 22nd birthday to LHP Dax Fulton. The former second-round draft pick had established himself as one of the Marlins' most promising prospects entering 2023, but his season was cut short by left elbow surgery.Lastly, thanks to Super Subscriber David K. Tobin for digging this up: Photo by Noah Berger/Fish On First
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Enjoy top plays from Miami Marlins catcher Will Banfield! Banfield spent his age-23 season with the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos. In 115 games played, he slashed .258/.302/.472 (100 wRC+) with 23 HR and 3 SB. He also had a 28.3% caught stealing rate. The Marlins selected Banfield in Competitive Balance Round B (69th overall pick) of the 2018 MLB Draft. He's likely to advance to the Triple-A level next year and even has a decent chance to break through to the majors depending on what moves the organization makes to address the catcher position. Where would you rank Banfield among the top prospects in the Marlins organization?
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FanPost: What are the priorities this offseason?
Ely Sussman replied to Hans Herrera's topic in Miami Marlins Talk
I largely agree with this. One topic I want to dive into soon is what happened to Fortes' bat. Exciting debut in 2021 and showed a lot of promise in early 2022 as well, but now his struggles greatly outweigh his initial success. Given the bad alternatives on the market, it wouldn't be the worst thing to bet on Fortes bouncing back and bringing in a veteran on a minor league deal to battle with Banfield and McIntosh for the backup job. So I have shortstop as the higher priority for this particular offseason. -
Thursday's GamesMarlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's AFL/winter ball notes: IF Nasim Nuñez went 1-for-4 with 2 RBI and C Paul McIntosh went 1-for-1 with 2 BB and 2 SB.Elsewhere around the majors, the Phillies knocked out the favored Braves in the NLDS for the second straight October. Nick Castellanos became the first player ever with consecutive multi-homer postseason games and Trea Turner went 4-for-4 with a home run of his own. Three years since his tenure as Marlins president of baseball operations ended, Michael Hill is reportedly a target for the Red Sox. Hill is MLB's senior vice president of baseball operations. He's got a connection to the Boston area as a Harvard University alum.The majority of Fish On First Twitter followers say it's easier to accept that the Marlins were eliminated by the Phils now that they've beaten Atlanta as well. The poll is still open, so vote for yourself.Postseason baseball resumes on Sunday with ALCS Game 1 between the Rangers and Astros. The Phillies host the Diamondbacks for the NLCS opener on Monday.Our 2023 Marlins Season Review has recently covered Jazz Chisholm Jr. Check back daily for more articles from the FOF staff."I think that a lot more focus needs to be on individual teams to do better and not just rely on revenue-sharing," Yankees president Randy Levine said at the Sportico Invest in Sports Conference regarding the business of baseball. "You can't have two Florida teams averaging 15,000 fans." Buoyed in part by the Yankees' robust revenue streams, the Rays and Marlins both performed better this season than his team did.Voting for the 2023 Hank Aaron Award closes tonight! Luis Arraez is among the National League nominees. Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos

