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Everything posted by Ely Sussman
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Offishial news, 10/3/23: Arraez ready to play; series previews; AFL begins
Ely Sussman posted an article in Marlins
Monday's Coveragehttps://fishonfirst.com/analysis/2023-wild-card-series-preview/ Marlins Podcast Episodes Monday's AFL/winter ball updates: IF Jacob Berry started at third base and went 0-for-5 in what was his first game action since August 29. RHP Zach McCambley (2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) couldn't hold Peoria's lead in the bottom of the 10th inning, so the game ended in a tie.Luis Arraez is expected to be in tonight's Game 1 Marlins lineup, per Skip Schumaker. Arraez hasn't played a complete game since September 18 due to a left ankle sprain.Elsewhere around the majors, the Angels are parting ways with manager Phil Nevin. Aaron Boone is reportedly being retained as Yankees manager. Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) suffered a shoulder injury that could keep him out throughout the postseason.We’ve got a new episode of Fish On First LIVE streaming tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Special guests: Alex Carr and Sean Millerick. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! https://fishonfirst.com/la-pop/The Marlins have a 43.5% chance to win Game 1, per FanGraphs, and a 40.4% chance to win the series overall. All four Wild Card Series matchups get underway today. Good luck to old friend Pablo López in Minnesota! Free tickets are available (you can claim two per account) to tonight's watch party at LoanDepot Park. Tickets also went on sale for the Marlins' potential NLDS home games, which would be October 11 and October 12 (if necessary) against the Braves. The get-in price, including all fees, is $48.Speaking of get-in prices, TickPick says it'll cost you $199 on the secondary market to get inside Citizens Bank Park tonight. Assuming you're not there in person, be sure to follow Isaac Azout and Noah Berger throughout the series.Daniel Rodriguez highlights four unsung heroes who were crucial for the Marlins during the regular season.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/2023-marlins-unsung-heroes/Alex Krutchik is convinced that Billy the Marlin would triumph over the Phillie Phanatic in a fight.https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/phillie-phanatic-billy-the-marlin-mascot-royal-rumble/John Turlington's new revisits the final two wins that pushed the Marlins into the postseason.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBW71s7dT_gJordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reviews how the Marlins constructed a playoff-caliber roster under Kim Ng.Enjoy more Wild Card Series previews from Michael Baumann of FanGraphs, The Athletic and Ryan Schlesinger. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com gives the Phillies the advantage at every position except for second base, left field and center field.2B Xavier Edwards and 1B Troy Johnston were named to MLB Pipeline's Prospect Team of the Year second team.On this day 20 years ago, the Marlins took a 2-1 lead over the Giants in the NLDS thanks to Pudge Rodriguez's 11th-inning walk-off single.https://twitter.com/FishOnFirst/status/1709170995473289412?s=20Photo by courtesy of Miami Marlins -
If there was an extra pitcher that the Marlins trusted or if Arraez was at 100% strength, Wendle would be off the roster. I think he makes it for this series and then they'll obviously re-evaluate if they advance. Eury has already thrown more innings this year than the team planned for. There might be time to bring him back as a reliever, but that's a role he has no experience with anyway. I'd be shocked if he pitches again.
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For only the fourth time in franchise history, the Marlins are playing postseason baseball! It's been three years since they previously made it and twenty since their last full-season berth. Celebrate the rare occasion by treating yourself and other Marlins fans in your life to new merch from BreakingT. Every purchase made through the links below earns a commission for the Fish On First staff, helping to power our round-the-clock, on-site coverage throughout the playoffs. Party Like It's 2003 (t-shirts and hoodies)Get Wild Miami (t-shirts and hoodies)And even though this design is three years old, it was a best-seller at the time, inspired by the Philadelphia Phillies, who happen to be Miami's NL Wild Card Series opponent... Bottom Feeders (t-shirts and hoodies)Through the years (previously as Fish Stripes and now as FOF), we have collaborated with BreakingT on dozens of Marlins-themed products. Shop the full collection here.
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Sunday's Gamehttps://fishonfirst.com/at-the-ballpark/marlins-fall-in-regular-season-finale-set-eyes-for-tuesday/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-10/01/4d97a77f-b0eccc1f-c04f9820-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes No clue what the pitching plan would've been on Sunday if the Marlins actually needed to win. Because they didn't, Ryan Weathers took the mound...and he looked solid out there! The Marlins used a comically weak lineup and the results were just as bad as expected: four total baserunners and no extra-base hits. The Pirates scored the game's only three runs against Bryan Hoeing in the bottom of the eighth.Meanwhile in Arizona, the Diamondbacks adopted a similar approach. With their loss to the Astros, the Marlins clinched the fifth seed in the National League playoffs.The Marlins will not complete their suspended game against the Mets, as they had been scheduled to do this afternoon. I'm frankly confused about how that game is being ruled for record-keeping purposes. MLB is preserving the individual stats from the game, but it hasn't been marked as a win, loss or tie yet.Congrats to Luis Arraez on winning the NL batting title. He practically led the race from wire to wire, finishing with a .354 batting average that establishes a new Marlins single-season record.Listen back to Sunday's State of the Fish Twitter Space hosted by Grant Kiefer. It's also available on the Fish On First podcast feed. Elsewhere around the majors, Buck Showalter announced that he won't be returning as Mets manager. The Mets plummeted from 101 wins in Showalter's first season to 74 this season despite carrying the highest payroll in the majors. Former knuckleballer Tim Wakefield—best known for his Red Sox tenure—passed away from brain cancer at the age of 57. Miguel Cabrera's playing career came to an end.https://fishonfirst.com/old-friends/miguel-cabrera-final-mlb-stats-marlins-tigers/The Marlins begin their postseason run against the fourth-seed Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday. All games of the best-of-three series will have 8:08 p.m. ET start times with television coverage on ESPN. The Game 1 probable starters are Jesús Luzardo and Zack Wheeler. For Game 2, it'll be Braxton Garrett and Aaron Nola. It's the first time that these longtime NL East rivals have ever met in the playoffs. Kevin Barral updated his NL Wild Card Series roster projection. How does it compare to yours?https://fishonfirst.com/analysis/marlins-playoff-roster-projection-2023-wild-card-series-2/This is Opening Day for the Arizona Fall League. Eight players from the Marlins organization have been assigned to the Peoria Javelinas. First pitch at 9:30 p.m. ET.Photo courtesy of Bally Sports Florida
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As you've seen by now, it'll be Luzardo in Game 1 and that's what I would have done as well. The schedule has him making that start on regular rest. Other young pitchers benefit from extra time between starts, but that hasn't really been the case for him. Very similar overall seasons for him and Garrett. It's still clear that Luzardo has the superior upside. I want him to be in a position to pitch as many times as possible over the course of the postseason.
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It's been a pleasure getting comments and encouragement from you throughout the year!
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This entire year of transactions has involved a lot of risk. Kim made a big bet on the team contending immediately even when it seemed like a longshot and it paid off. Hopefully it will change how the team is perceived locally. If nothing else, it definitely has captured national attention.
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Luis Arraez didn't have a chance to defend his American League batting title crown because of an offseason trade that sent him from the Minnesota Twins to the National League's Miami Marlins. Instead, he conquered his new domain while elevating his game to even greater heights. Resting on Sunday, Arraez (.354 BA) secured the 2023 NL batting title, finishing 17 points ahead of the next-best qualified hitter (Ronald Acuña Jr., .337 BA). Arraez spent the first half of his age-26 season chasing ghosts, trying to become the first major leaguer in generations to hit .400. That fantasy fell apart once and for all in August during what was arguably the worst month he's ever had at the plate. Freddie Freeman briefly made Arraez sweat, closing the batting average gap between them to single-digit points. However, Arraez went 2-for-5 in his final August game, then created breathing room with three more consecutive multi-hit efforts. Arraez's supernatural contact skills were on full display in September—he hasn't struck out since Sept. 9. Unfortunately, a left ankle sprain sidelined him for the much of that period (he started only two of the final 11 Marlins regular season games). The silver lining is those limited at-bats made it virtually impossible to lose his lead. Even better, his teammates produced enough in his absence to secure a postseason berth. Arraez is the third NL batting champ in Marlins history, joining Hanley Ramírez (2009) and Dee Strange-Gordon (2015). Arraez's .354 BA establishes a new single-season franchise record, surpassing Ramírez's .342 mark. It's also a new personal best for him, shattering the .316 BA that paced the AL in 2022 (Arraez did not have enough plate appearances to qualify in any of his other seasons). In 2022, the Marlins ranked 14th out of 15 NL teams in batting average (.230 BA). Largely because of Arraez's contributions, they vaulted all the way to second place in that category this season (.259 BA), trailing only the dominant Atlanta Braves. Arraez joins DJ LeMahieu as the only players to ever win both an AL and NL batting title, and unlike LeMahieu, he pulled it off in back-to-back years. He figures to be the betting favorite for a three-peat in 2024. Arraez's value to the Marlins goes far beyond being a singles merchant. His enthusiasm is infectious in the clubhouse. His defense at second base is better than advertised. His determination to play through hand and ankle injuries demonstrated his desire to compete. The frequency of his hits and his overall style of play make him highly marketable. There are many intriguing contract extension candidates in Miami. Locking up Arraez long term ought to be a top offseason priority. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First
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After 21 MLB seasons and countless accolades, future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera has hung up his cleats. Cabrera made it known earlier this year that his age-40 season would be his last, and he was deservedly celebrated everywhere that the Detroit Tigers went in 2023. He capped off his career this weekend at Comerica Park. Most baseball fans will remember Miggy as a Tiger. That's where he won his MVP awards, became his generation's only Triple Crown winner and reached prestigious career milestones (500 home runs, 3,000 hits, etc.). But José Miguel Cabrera got his start in professional baseball when he signed with the Marlins in 1999(!) out of Maracay, Venezuela. He rose through the minor league ranks rapidly and became an everyday starter in the big leagues at age 20. With Cabrera's help, the 2003 Marlins pulled off a stunning midseason turnaround and won the World Series title. There are three moments from Cabrera's five-year Marlins tenure that have aged particularly gracefully: Walk-off home run in MLB debut (6/20/03) 2. World Series home run off of Roger Clemens (10/22/03) 3. Game-winning RBI single during intentional walk attempt (6/22/06) Cabrera's .313 batting average as a Marlin is the highest in franchise history for a player with at least 1,000 career at-bats. Although Luis Arraez will likely unseat him for that distinction next season, Cabrera ranks among the top 10 all-time Marlins in practically every offensive counting and rate stat. And he did all of that before even entering his prime. Cabrera played in Miami for the last time during the July 28-30 series between the Tigers and Marlins. He started all three games as Detroit's designated hitter. The Marlins marketed it as "Miguel Cabrera Weekend" and scheduled their annual Venezuelan heritage celebration to coincide with his visit. Despite the Tigers' mediocrity, Miggy fans flooded the stadium—the announced attendance for that series was 22,354 per game, approximately 56% higher than the Marlins' average turnout. A topic I plan to explore further this offseason: Should the Marlins honor Cabrera by retiring his uniform number? (Obviously, the Tigers will.) After wearing No. 20 as a rookie, he donned No. 24 for the rest of his Marlins tenure (2004-2007). That number is currently assigned to Avisaíl García. As not only a former Miggy teammate but also a fellow Venezuelan, García would presumably cooperate with zero resistance (and frankly, it's possible that García doesn't survive this offseason on the Marlins roster anyway). Following Cabrera's departure from the diamond, Giancarlo Stanton and Brad Hand are the only former Florida Marlins who remain active major leaguers. Cabrera will begin his post-playing career as a special assistant to Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris. Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First
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Saturday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-clinch-2023-playoff-berth/https://fishonfirst.com/at-the-ballpark/inside-2023-marlins-postseason-clinch-celebration/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/30/3a24301a-ae3c515d-aba5068f-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes With their 84th win of the 2023 regular season, the Marlins punched their ticket to the MLB postseason. Jazz Chisholm Jr. drove in each of their first two runs. Jon Berti continues to be the hottest hitter on the club, reaching base safely four times. Eight different pitchers patched things together, constantly working under duress but limiting the Pirates to 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position. Tanner Scott sealed the deal by striking out the side in the bottom of the ninth. Although it's only been three years since Miami's last postseason berth, several members of the organization agree that pulling this off under normal circumstances is a "far superior" feeling. Enjoy Chisholm's livestream of the champagne celebration in the Marlins clubhouse.https://www.instagram.com/p/Cx1tqDLOScc/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==The 43-year-old Skip Schumaker is by far the youngest manager to ever lead the Marlins to the postseason. Kim Ng is the first woman to reach this milestone as an MLB general manager and it only adds to the leverage she'll have in contract extension negotiations.Listen back to our postgame Twitter Space, nearly two hours of jubilation about the clinch and trepidation about what lies ahead in October and beyond.NL Wild Card race updates: the Cubs and Reds have both been eliminated. The Marlins hold the second Wild Card spot, half a game ahead of the Diamondbacks.Elsewhere around the majors, the full 12-team postseason field is set. All that's left to determine is seeding. Felix Bautista (Orioles) will undergo Tommy John surgery, likely sidelining him for the entire 2024 season. The Rockies signed Charlie Blackmon to a one-year, $13 million contract extension. That covers what will be his 14th big league season (all of those spent in Colorado). The Reds extended Nick Krall and promoted him to president of baseball operations.All of Sunday's MLB games will begin during the 3 p.m. ET hour. No clue who's pitching for the Marlins, but they'd be wise to stay away from anybody with a prominent role in their postseason plans.Join us for a new State of the Fish after the final out! As usual, speaking priority goes to our loyal Super Subscribers. Please consider signing up for as little as $3 per month to help us deliver the best possible Marlins postseason coverage.https://fishonfirst.com/fish-on-first-updates/super-subscriber-details/The suspended game against the Mets will not be resumed on Monday as scheduled, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. The Marlins obviously prefer to have an off day instead and fortunately the result of the game isn't necessary to determine a postseason berth. Regardless of whether Miami's next opponent is the Phillies or Brewers, that series opener will be on Tuesday.On this day 20 years ago, the Marlins took NLDS Game 2 from the Giants. Huge performance from Juan Pierre (4-for-5, 3 RBI).https://fishonfirst.com/history/marlins-nlds-game-2-giants-2003/Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic goes in depth on the 2003 campaign, highlighting the team's biggest personalities and most important inflection points.Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins
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The Offishial Show: The Marlins Can Clinch a Playoff Spot Today
Ely Sussman posted an article in Podcasts
The Miami Marlins' magic number to clinch a 2023 postseason berth is down to one! Postgame reaction to Friday's win from Ely Sussman, Kevin Barral, Alex Carver, Alex Krutchik, Daniel Rodriguez and Isaac Azout. Subscribe to the Fish On First YouTube channel to watch video versions of every episode of The Offishial Show. The Marlins did it again. After seven innings of aimless offense against the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen, a hobbled Luis Arraez helped ignite a rally in the eighth. Josh Bell's double snapped the shutout. Jake Burger's single evened the score at 3-3. Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s sacrifice fly put the Fish in front. Tanner Scott ultimately slammed the door shut. https://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-complete-their-41st-come-from-behind-win-inch-closer-to-playoffs/Meanwhile in Milwaukee, the Chicago Cubs found themselves in a similar predicament facing the underbelly of the Brewers pitching staff. They erased their own 3-0 deficit against September call-ups Clayton Andrews and Caleb Boushley to force extra innings. But Boushley buckled down in the 10th and Carlos Santana walked it off in the bottom half of the inning. If Miami wins on Saturday, or if the Cubs and Cincinnati Reds both lose, then the Marlins can pop champagne having secured a Wild Card berth. Follow Ely (@RealEly), Kevin (@kevin_barral), Alex C. (@marlinsminors) Alex K. (@AlexKrutchikFOF), Daniel (@Drodyyy), Isaac (@IsaacAzout) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. Our Fish On First podcast programming includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, State of the Fish, Swimming Upstream, Fishology and What a Relief. All new episodes are posted to FishOnFirst.com/podcasts. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Podbean, Megaphone or wherever you normally get your pods from. -
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