Ely Sussman

Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is joining forces with fellow Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani, agreeing to a 12-year, $325M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night. It's the largest guarantee ever given to a conventional pitcher (the two-way Ohtani belongs in a separate category, of course). The Dodgers' fiercest competition for Yamamoto reportedly came from the New York clubs. The Mets matched the terms of the final deal, per Andy Martino of SNY. The Yankees only bid $300M, but that would've been paid out over the course of 10 years, meaning it came with a superior $30M average annual value. There have been rumblings that the Miami Marlins are willing to consider trade offers for any of their healthy starters outside of Eury Pérez. With the Yamamoto sweepstakes now concluded, could we see those negotiations intensify? Jesús Luzardo would bring the Marlins a massive return if they decided to move him this winter | Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty ImagesAs Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic explain, the Mets were fixated on Yamamoto specifically: "the initial expectation is that the Mets will not simply pivot to the next-best available starting pitchers." In the Yankees' case, however, there is an apparent urgency to win now and—more importantly—a supply of young bats that the Marlins might covet. Peter Bendix is not plunging the Marlins into a rebuild, at least not this offseason. The organization is not aggressively shopping Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera. The rumors regarding these SPs being available are born out of Bendix's long-term confidence in Miami's pitching supply...and his long-term concern about lacking offense. If a fair offer is made centered around an everyday-caliber hitter, then he might sign off on it. The ideal acquisition for the Marlins would be a young player with a chance to stick at a premium defensive position who's not yet eligible for arbitration. Two Yankees who fit that description and ought to be realistically attainable are infielder Oswald Peraza and catcher Austin Wells. Peraza was a consensus Top 100 MLB prospect entering last season. Coming up through the Yankees farm system, he slashed .273/.348/.424 (111 wRC+) in parts of six minor league seasons, leading all of their farmhands with 131 stolen bases during that period. He used to be a full-time shortstop, but primarily manned third base when called up to the Bronx in 2023 due to the presence of Anthony Volpe. https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/3ec9f899-bba7-4a58-9188-ca302c8ada02.mp4Given Peraza's limited major league track record (75 wRC+ and 0.1 fWAR in 70 G), ill-defined role on the 2024 Yankees roster and the fact that he's out of minor league options, the 23-year-old Venezuelan would be an intriguing buy-low candidate. The price to get Wells is likely steeper. He was a more productive hitter in the minors (career .260/.370/.476 slash line and 128 wRC+) and caught fire at the big league level at the tail end of last season. "Wells has made considerable progress as a receiver and ball-blocker," Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes in his newly updated Yankees top prospects list. Also, all of his minor league options are still intact. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-09/26/7526e14c-125ebff6-9f155746-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4I personally wouldn't entertain the idea of a Luzardo blockbuster unless both Peraza and Wells are included in the return. Whether or not it leads to a sizable trade, let's hope the Yamamoto signing will spur more conversation between the Marlins and pitcher-needy teams so that we get a clearer idea of how the market values these guys.

Here's what you should know with 98 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Wednesday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, Troy Johnston went 1-for-7 with a walk during a doubleheader, RF Vidal Bruján went 0-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base, SS José Devers went 0-for-3 with an error and RHP Huascar Brazoban pitched a perfect inning of relief in his LIDOM season debut. The Brazoban development suggests that he'll be contributing for Gigantes del Cibao during the upcoming postseason Round Robin. The Marlins sent cash considerations to the Pirates in exchange for RHP Roddery Muñoz. It's technically Peter Bendix's third trade of the offseason, but it's essentially a glorified waiver claim. In the minors last season, Muñoz posted a 5.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 81 K in 78.0 IP (34 G/14 GS). Could be a decent MLB reliever in the future if he develops a competent changeup. He's the only "Roddery" in the history of professional baseball, as far as I can tell. Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment to make room for him.Free agent OF Diego Infante signed a minor league deal with the Fish. He played 454 games in the Rays organization over the last seven seasons, slashing .275/.342/.437. What sticks out to me is how little power production Infante had to the pull side in 2023. Most of his defensive reps have come in right field.The latest episode of Fish On First LIVE discussed those acquisitions along with Jesús Luzardo trade rumors. This was our first time crossposting the show to Instagram Live! We'll continue doing so with all future streams if there's an audience for it. Elsewhere around baseball, the Brewers traded Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor to the Mets for pitching prospect Coleman Crow.Cristian Crespo of Just Baseball explains why he trusts Peter Bendix, even if his approach doesn't necessarily put the Marlins in the best situation to contend in 2024.With 28 BBWAA ballots entered into Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, former Marlin Gary Sheffield has received 66.7% of the vote (needs 75.0% for election). I’ll continue updating his status in Offishial News as more ballots come in.The hiring of Frankie Piliere as Marlins director of amateur scouting is now official. His private Twitter account has been updated accordingly.Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First

The Miami Marlins swung another tiny trade on Wednesday, acquiring Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Roddery Muñoz for cash considerations, as first reported by Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports. The Marlins designated fellow righty Ryan Jensen to make room for him on their 40-man roster. The Dominican pitcher had spent his entire professional career with the Atlanta Braves organization before moving around this past year. He was the eighth-ranked prospect in the Braves system entering 2023, per FanGraphs. Muñoz was claimed off waivers by the Washington Nationals on July 17 and stuck with their Triple-A affiliate for the remainder of the season (used primarily as a starter). The Pirates claimed Muñoz off waivers on December 1, only to DFA him themselves this past Friday. In 287 total innings pitched in the minor leagues (88 G/56 GS), Muñoz has a 5.02 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 317 K. His 2023 performance was slightly below that standard (5.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 81 K in 78.0 IP) and that's despite being helped by a midseason FCL rehab assignment. With Triple-A Rochester, Muñoz's pitch mix was comprised of 47% fastballs (94.7 mph average velocity), 34% sliders (90.1 mph) and 19% changeups (89.8 mph). https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/ccca111f-2d0c-4ea9-a9ec-fe74a111b15c.mp4The Braves actually called up Muñoz to the big leagues for a couple days last season, but he didn't make an appearance. He turns 24 in April and has two minor league options left. Although Muñoz made nine straight starts to end the season, he rarely worked more than twice through an opposing lineup and continued to struggle against lefties (had issues with both walks and home runs). He profiles as a middle reliever moving forward. Fun biographical note: Muñoz has a twin brother, Rolddy Muñoz, who's also a right-handed pitcher. Rolddy is still with the Braves. The Marlins claimed Jensen off waivers from the Seattle Mariners on November 27. He's a former first-round draft pick of the Chicago Cubs, but control problems have stunted his progress, including a 17.4% walk rate last season. The Marlins are hoping he'll clear waivers this time, allowing them to outright him to the minors and retain control over him entering 2024. Photo courtesy of Rome Emperors

Here's what you should know with 99 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Tuesday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, Troy Johnston made his LIDOM debut...sort of. The game was postponed due to rain in the middle of the third inning (before he could even take an at-bat). It was Johnston's first time playing right field in a professional game since May 2021 when he was with Low-A Jupiter.Elsewhere around baseball, Andrew McCutchen (1/$5M) re-signed with the Pirates. It will be McCutchen's 16th season in the majors and 11th in Pittsburgh.Xavier Edwards tells the that he's been working out as a shortstop and outfielder this offseason. He admits that his arm strength hasn't been the same over the last two years following a shoulder injury and he's focusing on restoring that.Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports that the Marlins are one of five teams whose digital broadcast rights are carried by Diamond Sports (in addition to local television rights). Amazon is in talks to invest in Diamond, potentially with the goal of streaming games for those teams while Diamond's Bally Sports affiliates face an uncertain future.On Locked On Marlins, Peter Pratt and Shaun Barrett discuss a hypothetical for Luis Arraez. I consider Arraez a high-priority extension candidate as well, but wouldn't budge far above $100M for him.With 25 BBWAA ballots entered into Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker, former Marlin Gary Sheffield has received 76.0% of the vote (needs 75.0% for election). I'll continue updating his status in Offishial News as more ballots come in.Join us tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET for a new edition of Fish On First LIVE on YouTube/Twitter/Instagram. You read that right: we now have a way to stream through Instagram Live. Also, for the first time since 2022, we can read and feature comments submitted by you through Twitter. Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On First

Here's what you should know with 100 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Monday's winter ball notes: In the Dominican Republic, 2B Vidal Bruján went 1-for-4 with a walk and 1B Troy Johnston joined the Toros del Este roster (but did not make his debut yet). The Mariners are the "most active" team in pursuit of free agent Jorge Soler, with the Marlins and Yankees also showing interest, reports Francys Romero. Last month, Romero said the Marlins wanted him back on a multi-year deal. I'm still very skeptical that this gets done, putting the odds of Soler re-signing with the Fish at 8%.Five Marlins players received a portion of MLB's pre-arbitration bonus pool, AP reports: Braxton Garrett ($466,898), Jake Burger ($356,317), Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($307,518), Eury Pérez ($274,674) and Jesús Sánchez ($254,236). Their bonus amounts were determined based on wins above replacement.Elsewhere around baseball, Martín Pérez (1/$8M) signed with the Pirates and Tom Murphy (2/$8M) signed with the Giants. The Orioles reached a new lease agreement with Maryland state officials to remain at Camden Yards for the next 30 years.During his Tommy John surgery recovery, Max Meyer has been working on controlling the cut of his four-seamer and developing a sinker, according to Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. Keep up with the health status of Meyer and other Marlins players via our injury/rehab tracker. Cody Christie of Twins Daily concocts three potential trades that could bring Jesús Luzardo to Minnesota. The entire premise of trading Luzardo irritates me, but I find his first proposal—involving Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee and a low-level minor leaguer—to be the most palatable.In the latest Locked On Marlins (embedded below), Peter Pratt explains his bold idea to swap Luzardo for Royce Lewis.PECOTA projections for the 2024 season have been released for individual players. These are the 50th percentile projections for all hitters on the Marlins 40-man roster (except for Peyton Burdick, who I couldn't find for some reason). Pretty bullish on Jazz!Baseball ProspectusBob Nightengale of USA Today spoke at length to Gary Sheffield about his Hall of Fame candidacy and the off-the-field issues that BBWAA voters have held against him. Needing 75.0% of the vote to be elected in 2024, Sheffield is currently at 71.4%, per Ryan Thibodaux's tracker.Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

Fish On First MLB Draft analyst Hector Rodriguez joins Ely Sussman to revisit the writings of Frankie Piliere from his tenure with D1Baseball. Piliere shared his thoughts on eventual big leaguers such as Jesús Luzardo, Jake Burger, Bryan Reynolds, Royce Lewis and Mickey Moniak. At the end of the show, Hector explains why Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns could be good selection for the Marlins in the first round of 2024 draft. Subscribe to the Fish On First YouTube channel to watch video versions of every episode of The Offishial Show. Before working six years in the Seattle Mariners organization and reportedly being hired last week to take over the Marlins amateur scouting department, Piliere was publicly writing and editing content about the draft. There are 266 D1Baseball articles under his name from 2015-2017. You can access them here by subscribing to D1Baseball. These are the articles we reviewed on the pod: 2016 MLB Draft: Day One Thoughts2016 MLB Draft: Day Two Breakdown2017 MLB Draft: Day One Thoughts2017 MLB Draft: Day Two ThoughtsAs of Tuesday morning, the Marlins have yet to formally announce Piliere. Follow Ely (@RealEly), Hector (@Hector_Baseball) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. Our Fish On First podcast programming includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream, Big Fish Small Pod and What a Relief. All new episodes are posted to FishOnFirst.com/podcasts. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Podbean, Megaphone or wherever you normally get your pods from.

Here's what you should know with 101 days to go until Marlins Opening Day... Sunday's winter ball notes: In Venezuela, LF Javier Sanoja went 0-for-1 with a walk and LHP Luis Palacios pitched in relief (2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K). In Puerto Rico, C Jan Mercado went 0-for-2. Poor guy is still hitless in the month of December.The Athletic reported that the Marlins and Royals discussed a massive trade at the Winter Meetings involving Jesús Luzardo and Vinnie Pasquantino. I wrote why valuing those players similarly would have been a big mistake from the Marlins' perspective.Former Marlins left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus inked a one-year, $800k deal to pitch for the KBO's Kiwoom Heroes. De Jesus made his major league debut with the Marlins last September, appearing twice in mop-up duty.Elsewhere around baseball, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3/$42M) signed with the Diamondbacks. That seemingly closes the door on Tommy Pham re-signing with Arizona. How would you folks feel about Pham in Miami if he was willing to take a relatively cheap two-year deal? Maybe I'll write an article on that. For the time being, the Marlins are one of only eight teams who haven't made a major league free agent signing.Kevin Barral explains why he likes Carl Edwards Jr. as a low-cost, right-handed bullpen reinforcement for the Marlins.On Saturday, LoanDepot Park hosted the Triple Play 5K. The event fundraised for Alzheimer's research, Parkinson's research, ALS research, general brain health, mental health and stroke awareness.Speaking of a different kind of "running," the Marlins Radio Network posted the first two episodes of "Marlins Rerun." The five-part series reflects on key players and moments from the 2023 season.Marlins Podcast Episodes Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins