Ely Sussman

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MLB's hottest team set a new season-high in runs scored to further assert their NL East supremacy.Bryan Hoeing had a shaky outing at Truist Park in his 2023 Miami Marlins debut on April 25. He returned Friday night as a full-fledged major league starter, but struggled to an even greater extent against an All-Star-studded Atlanta Braves lineup. Miami's bullpen didn't fare much better in the 16-4 loss. The quality of Hoeing's stuff simply wasn't what it needed to be. His best pitch this season, the slider, generated only one whiff and lacked its usual late break. In four career appearances against the Braves (9.2 IP), his lifetime earned run average is 13.03. The Marlins initially showed some resiliency. After falling behind 5-0, Jesús Sánchez and Jorge Soler both homered in the top of the third, narrowing the deficit to 5-3. However, Hoeing yielded two more runs in the bottom of the frame. Then, mop-up man Archie Bradley was equally ineffective (2.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 HR). Despite this deflating performance, expect Hoeing to remain in the Marlins rotation and face the St. Louis Cardinals next series. Jacob Stallings (left ankle soreness) exited the game in the fifth inning, aggravating an injury that he says he initially suffered against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week. Seems to be a day-to-day issue for now. He's supposed to start again on Sunday afternoon as Sandy Alcantara's battery mate—Alcantara has pitched to Stallings exclusively dating back to the start of the 2022 season. Marlins rookie right-hander Eury Pérez will make his 10th MLB start on Saturday. Charlie Morton, who's nearly twice his age, will toe the rubber for Atlanta. Morton has 12 career wins against the Fish, his highest total against any team. The 39-year-old's first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Photo courtesy of Atlanta Braves

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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes a lookahead to the most important series of Miami's season thus far.Thursday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-red-sox-highlights-sweep/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/29/fb5b83e0-10efa8eb-b5cc4fe8-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Thursday's Marlins MiLB notes: UTIL Dane Myers (Jacksonville) had a walk-off single. He's driven 19 runs in his first 17 Triple-A games. LHP Patrick Monteverde (Pensacola) lowered his ERA to 1.93 and OF Victor Mesa Jr. matched a season high with four runs driven in. The two Dominican Summer League teams combined for 12 stolen bases. INF Cherif Neymour (DSL Marlins) went 3-for-4 at the plate and bumped up his slash line to .368/.478/.579.Jesús Luzardo dominated on Thursday, retiring 17 consecutive batters at one point. His overall 2023 stats are eerily similar to 2022—he's been more hittable, but with better control over a near-identical sample size. Jazz Chisholm Jr. homered to provide a valuable insurance run. In the Red Sox series, he went 5-for-12 with two homers and also reached on an error. The Marlins got their run differential up to zero for the first time all season.Yuli Gurriel (nose) and Garrett Cooper (illness) missed the game, but both are expected to avoid the injured list.Nobody's Marlins vs. Red Sox series predictions came out perfectly as few people had the audacity to pick a sweep at Fenway Park. Participate in Prediction Time prior to every Marlins series opener by becoming a Super Subscriber!https://fishonfirst.com/super-subscribers/marlins-prediction-time-leaderboard/Luis Arraez has deservedly been voted the National League's starting second baseman for the MLB All-Star Game. He'll be the first Marlins player to start the ASG at that position—Chisholm wasn't available to play when voted in last year, and the franchise's other All-Star second basemen made it as reserves. Elsewhere around the majors, the Mets reached a new low point, falling to nine games below .500 after a loss to the Brewers. Particularly ugly night for old friend Starling Marte, who had two strikeouts and grounded into two double plays. The Cardinals got obliterated by the Astros at home, 14-0. Adam Wainwright (1.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 0 HR) may have run out of old man magic. Shohei Ohtani hit his MLB-leading 29th home run.We’re back with a new episode Fish On First LIVE series tonight, streaming tonight at 6:00 p.m. ET on /Twitch/Twitter. Super Subscribers, submit your series predictions before first pitch. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 37.3% chance to win their series opener against the Braves, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Daily Luis Arraez batting average update: he enters today at .392. He went 1-for-3 with 2 RBI in his only previous matchup with Michael Soroka, who's expected to be called up to start for Atlanta. Additionally, Arraez is hitting .352 in road games this season and .385 in night games.An updated MLB mock draft of Keith Law of The Athletic has the Marlins taking Maryland shortstop Matt Shaw with their first-round pick. "I've also heard the Marlins with (Noble) Meyer, (Kyle) Teel and (Jacob) Wilson," Law writes.Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions highlights the Marlins' valuable defensive positioning this season and how infield coach Jody Reed communicates with his players."We're about to find out if the Marlins are for real," writes Glenn Geffner. Geffner points out that these teams have the two best records in the majors since May 5 (Braves are 31-17 and Marlins are 32-18). Subscribe to his daily Substack to read more.Ryan Schlesinger likes the White Sox as a potential trade partner for the Marlins.On this day 10 years ago, Jeff Mathis blasted a walk-off grand slam against the Padres.Graphic courtesy of Miami Marlins

Luis Arraez is going back to the MLB All-Star Game for the second straight year—that part has been a forgone conclusion for weeks. But this time, the Miami Marlins leadoff man made it in as a starter, thanks to the support of the voting public. He beat out Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves in Phase 2 of fan voting as announced on ESPN Thursday night. Historically, it's been rare for any Marlins player to win an international "popularity contest" like this. However, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Arraez have now gone back-to-back as fan-elected NL second basemen. (Chisholm was unable to participate in the 2022 Midsummer Classic due to a stress fracture in his back.) Regardless of fan sentiment, Arraez was guaranteed to make it onto the roster somehow. He's on the short list of best offensive players in the league this season, entering Thursday with a .396/.447/.490 slash line (158 wRC+) through 75 games. Arraez is the first qualified major leaguer since Chipper Jones (2008) to seriously flirt with a .400 batting average this deep into a season, which has ensured his production is being noticed outside of South Florida and his former home of Minnesota. "I don't think there's anyone more deserving, at least on our team, to start and represent our ballclub," manager Skip Schumaker said in reaction to the voting results, "and I think he represents what we're all about. The type of player he is, he plays the game the right way. It's not just the production, but all the work he puts in—a winning type of player." Ironically, the news comes out on a night when Arraez isn't occupying his usual position. Due to the absences of Garrett Cooper (illness) and Yuli Gurriel (facial injury) on Thursday, the Marlins deployed Arraez as their starting first baseman for only the second time this season. Arraez will likely have a teammate accompanying him on the trip to Seattle. J.D. Martinez of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the fan-elected NL designated hitter. Despite cooling off recently, Jorge Soler has a very strong statistical case to be picked as the reserve at the position. Here is the full list of starting position players for the All-Star Game. Photo courtesy of Miami Marlins

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Today's Marlins news roundup also includes a final reminder to support Luis Arraez in MLB All-Star voting.Wednesday's Gameshttps://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/28/7bde38bc-0e241ac7-48300a9c-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Wednesday's Marlins MiLB notes: Johnny Cueto (Jacksonville) got pulverized again. In five minor league rehab starts this season, he owns a 11.50 ERA with 11 home runs allowed in 18 innings pitched. Although Cueto got stretched out to 90 pitches, there's simply zero evidence that he'd be a better rotation option than any of the lesser-known Triple-A alternatives. By the way, the Jumbo Shrimp erased a 8-2 deficit over the final two innings for a miraculous comeback win. RHP Karson Milbrandt was promoted from Jupiter to Beloit. He'll become the youngest prospect to play for the Sky Carp so far this season. It's curious timing for a promotion considering Milbrandt's 5.33 ERA in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, though two of his last three starts with the Hammerheads were scoreless. The latest Marlins minor league signing is LHP José Salvador. He posted a 3.81 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate as a starter in Low-A/High-A last season, but just got released by the Angels anyway. The 23-year-old will make his organizational debut with Jupiter.Braxton Garrett gave the Fish five good innings (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR) on an efficient 66 pitches. He would've stayed in longer if not for a rain delay. Joey Wendle has had multi-hit games in three straight starts and he's up to a .283 batting average for the season. Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s 2023 slash line (.243/.305/.434) is now almost precisely in line with his career norms (.243/.305/.446). Dating back to before his IL stint, Chisholm has homered in three of his last four games. Garrett Cooper homered for the 10th time in 2023, his highest total in any season since 2019.Elsewhere around the majors, Yankees right-hander Domingo Germán (a former Marlins prospect, by the way), threw a perfect game against the Athletics. It's the 24th perfecto in MLB history and first since Félix Hernández in 2012. To say that Germán was an improbable candidate to do this would be an understatement. He has averaged only 5.2 innings per start during his MLB career and got blown up in each of his two previous outings. The Braves shut out the Twins for their 13th win in the last 14 games. They're off today before hosting Miami this weekend. Overall, 10 of the 15 MLB games played on Wednesday were won by the road teams.The Marlins have a 48.2% chance to win their series finale against the Red Sox, per FanGraphs. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and DSL Marlins (11:00 a.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET), Low-A Jupiter (4:00 p.m. ET resumption of suspended game followed by regularly schedule game), FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) and DSL Miami (11:00 a.m. ET) are on the road.Daily Luis Arraez batting average update: he enters today at .396. He went 1-for-2 with a walk in his only previous matchup with Boston's Bryan Bello. Additionally, Arraez is hitting .360 in road games this season and .392 in night games.Phase 2 of MLB All-Star voting concludes today at noon ET. Arraez's teammates spread awareness about it by wearing "Arraez up and vote" t-shirts during batting practice. Unpacking Sandy Alcantara's frustrating first half, Ben Clemens of FanGraphs finds that "the core of what he does is the same. But erosion around the edges matters a lot more for someone with Alcantara’s skill set."Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers continues to break down fans' main reasons for not attending Marlins games at LoanDepot Park.On this day 30 years ago, the Marlins grounds crew made it onto the blooper reel by struggling to place the tarp over the wet infield.Happy birthday to former Marlins right-hander Tom Koehler. The 37-year-old ranks in the top 10 in most of the franchise's counting stats for his contributions during the 2012-2017 seasons.Graphic courtesy of Miami Marlins

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The Miami Marlins have exceeded expectations so far in 2023. However, to sustain this (and to better position themselves for perennial postseason contention), they'll likely need to acquire help from outside the organization. Leading up to the August 1 MLB trade deadline, Fish On First will profile potentially attainable players who would fit with what the Fish are building. 3B Jeimer Candelario (Washington Nationals)Originally signed and developed by the Chicago Cubs, Jeimer Candelario broke through to the majors during their curse-breaking 2016 campaign. That cup of coffee lasted only five games, however, and he didn't make much of an impression during brief MLB stints with them the following year. Candelario was shipped to the Detroit Tigers prior to the 2017 trade deadline, where he spent the next half-decade as one of the few bright spots of their gradual rebuild. From 2018-2022, Candelario led the Tigers in practically every offensive counting stat while posting a league-average slash line at the plate. Detroit used him primarily at third base except for the shortened 2020 season, when he moved across the diamond to first and raked at a career-best level (.297/.369/.503, 140 wRC+ in 52 G). Candelario got off to an extremely poor start in 2022, then briefly missed time due to a left shoulder subluxation. Even though he played closer to his career norms from late June onward, his overall season production was roughly replacement level and the Tigers non-tendered him (otherwise, he would've been due a contract in the $7 million range via arbitration). The Washington Nationals scooped up the 29-year-old in free agency on a one-year, $5 million deal. Candelario has rewarded them by fully rebounding to his pre-2022 self. Candelario enters Wednesday having played in 75 of Washington's first 79 games, slashing .262/.336/.469 (116 wRC+) and providing 2.3 fWAR/2.5 bWAR. The Nats are vying for the National League's worst record, but they'd be even worse without Candelario's clutch hitting—he ranks fifth among MLB third basemen in win probability added, per FanGraphs. A switch-hitter who's historically been the same dude from both sides of the plate, he's disproportionately mashing as a lefty in 2023 (135 wRC+ and all 10 of his home runs). https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/07/82031ddc-76fa0dea-ba9a7a68-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/27/8995b8de-b8f9bf5e-4fdad4e9-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4After mixed results on defense in 2022, Candelario has improved in that facet of the game, too. He's got three defensive runs saved and a career-high six outs above average. Aside from lacking the arm strength typically associated with the position, he has well-rounded skills. https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-04/10/9f1cd67a-f31cf077-84453532-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-05/20/d28586e9-f8f718ee-4226bc9f-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Even Candelario's baserunning is aging gracefully. His 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed is his best since 2017 and he has taken the extra base in 53% of his opportunities, as defined by Baseball-Reference (his career average is only 39%). Availability The Nationals entered 2023 with minuscule playoff odds and those have only gone down from there. For Candelario to be arguably their best player speaks to the dearth of talent around him. The Nats could conceivably explore an extension with the pending free agent to raise the floor of their lineup moving forward. However, the FA class around Candelario is thin on everyday players, so he'll be very tempted to let things play out and cash in. Facilitating a trade would behoove Washington as well because there just aren't many veteran players on their roster likely to generate interest from contenders. Although intradivision trades have been rare in the past, I expect attitudes toward that to change now that head-to-head matchups between rivals are less frequent and it's easier to reach October as a Wild Card (and make noise once you get there) irregardless of who's in your division. Roster Fit & Hypothetical Trade Photo by Danis Sosa/Fish On FirstCandelario's fit with the Marlins hinges on how Jean Segura performs over the next month leading up to the deadline. Segura has been miscast as a third baseman, so Candelario would clearly be an upgrade defensively, but the Fish are understandably holding out hope that Segura's bat will improve down the stretch. So far, he's been MLB's worst hitter (min. 200 PA) despite a lengthy, solid track record. If Segura's July falls significantly short of a 100 wRC+, how about making Candelario the strong side of a third base platoon with the potential to play some first base in the event of 39-year-old Yuli Gurriel wearing down or Garrett Cooper suffering another injury? The cost to acquire Candelario is suppressed by his lack of club control beyond 2023 and the suspicion that his production will drop off a bit in August and September, so Miami's best prospects will be off limits. Would pairing right-hander Evan Fitterer and outfielder Peyton Burdick be enough? Both 2019 draft picks still have paths to being serviceable big leaguers, but their flaws are glaring (shaky control for Fitterer, too much swing-and-miss for Burdick). The Marlins can subtract them without hindering their chances of a postseason berth. Here's what Baseball Trade Values thinks. Photo courtesy of Washington Nationals

Today's Marlins news roundup also includes the anniversary of an incredible comeback.Tuesday's Gameshttps://fishonfirst.com/game-coverage/marlins-red-sox-highlights-jazz-chisholm-return/https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2023/2023-06/27/058b6d2f-f8eae122-23afa3d0-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_16000K.mp4Marlins Podcast Episodes Tuesday's Marlins MiLB notes: Matt Barnes (FCL Marlins) began a minor league rehab assignment with a scoreless inning. Perhaps another week or so until he's ready to come off the injured list. Jancory De La Cruz (DSL Miami) went 3-for-5 with a home run and Fabian López went 2-for-4 with a stolen base, raising their OPS to .894 and .913, respectively.In his return from the IL, Jazz Chisholm Jr. matched a season high by reaching base four times. He got the start in the cleanup spot, which is where the Marlins used him back in early April (despite his objections). As a team, the Marlins compiled a season-high-tying 19 hits and had their largest margin of victory in any road game.Sandy Alcantara leaned on his changeup more heavily than he had in any previous 2023 start (36.8% usage) and generated most of his whiffs with it. Sunday's matchup against the Braves in Atlanta figures to be an important test of how close he is to turning the page on his first-half mediocrity.After being sworn in to the Presidential Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition on Tuesday, Kim Ng participated in her first meeting with the other newly appointed members, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.Elsewhere around the majors, Shohei Ohtani destroyed the White Sox on the mound (6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K) and at the plate (3-for-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB). Halfway through the Angels' season, he's on pace for 11.4 fWAR and 12.2 bWAR. J.D. Martinez hit his 299th and 300th career home runs. Esteury Ruiz became the first major leaguer to reach 40 stolen bases this season—you'll recall that Jon Berti's 41 steals led MLB in 2022.The latest episode of covered Chisholm's return, Miami's Futures Game selections and much more. With chiropractic care and functional health, La Pop takes a preventative approach that optimizes wellness and quality of life for all ages. Find out more here! The Marlins have a 49.8% chance to win their next game against the Red Sox, per FanGraphs. Right-hander Kaleb Ort is likely to serve as the opener for a Boston bullpen day. Triple-A Jacksonville (7:05 p.m. ET), High-A Beloit (7:35 p.m. ET) and FCL Marlins (12:00 p.m. ET) are at home, while Double-A Pensacola (7:35 p.m. ET) and Low-A Jupiter (6:30 p.m. ET) are on the road.Daily Luis Arraez batting average update: he enters today at .399. He doesn't have any substantial history against anybody who could be pitching for the Red Sox tonight. Additionally, Arraez is hitting .366 in road games this season and .399 in night games.Phase 2 of MLB All-Star voting continues until Thursday at noon ET. When the latest update was provided on Tuesday, Arraez was leading Ozzie Albies in National League second base voting, 54% to 46%. Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune talked to former Twins teammates about what makes Arraez so exceptional.Glenn Geffner's View from the Bleachers has begun breaking down fans' main reasons for not attending games at LoanDepot Park, including the ballpark's location and lack of public transportation options.On this day 20 years ago, the Marlins overcame a seven-run deficit to beat the Red Sox at Fenway Park.FOCO released a new Charlie Brown Marlins bobblehead, available to pre-order for $65.Graphic courtesy of Miami Marlins

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