Ely Sussman

Welcome to FOF's 35th Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. First one since Luis Arraez was officially traded to the San Diego Padres. At least against right-handed pitching, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the team's new leadoff hitter. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: INF Jonah Bride recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville. Nate Karzmer will be writing the game recap.

Bruján has recently thrived at the plate in a part-time role. Now, there is room for him to play regularly. The sudden departure of Luis Arraez stings. He is such a unique player, not to mention the heart and soul of the Miami Marlins. During his first six months on the job, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix refused to say the quiet part out loud about the franchise's trajectory. But actions speak louder than words: the Marlins are punting on the present to accumulate long-term assets. It is unlikely that any of the Marlins' internal options can serve as a satisfactory replacement for Arraez. That's why they play the games, though. When Vidal Bruján has gotten opportunities this season, his production has been eerily Arraez-esque: Luis Arraez's MLB career: 123 wRC+, 7.5 K%, 27.3 HardHit% Vidal Bruján's 2024 season: 128 wRC+, 7.5 K%, 25.6 HardHit% Fittingly, in the immediate aftermath of the Arraez trade news, Bruján accounted for three of Miami's seven hits against the Oakland Athletics on Friday and drove in the club's lone run. 99f58e13-4af364b3-7bc6e876-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 One of Bendix's first maneuvers as Marlins POBO was to buy low on Bruján, a former MLB Top 100 prospect whose offensive futility and inconsistent defense from 2021-2023 left him without a role in Tampa Bay moving forward. Per FanGraphs, he had contributed at least half a win below replacement level during each of those three seasons and exhausted his minor league options in the process. The first few weeks of Bruján's campaign looked like a continuation of his Rays tenure. He went hitless through 14 Marlins games (only played in eight of them). He was the last man on Skip Schumaker's bench, seemingly with nothing to offer aside from positional versatility and decent wheels on the bases. Once fellow speedy switch-hitter Xavier Edwards recovered from his foot infection, Bruján was destined to be designated for assignment...right? Well, narratives change rapidly in small sample sizes. Bruján has been on fire since April 26. That has taken him from liability to bright spot. As was the case during his previous MLB stints, Bruján is devoid of power with only one barreled ball so far in 2024, per Baseball Savant. To make himself a valuable hitter, he needs to constantly put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts. Bruján is doing that by ambushing pitchers early in the count, seeing only 3.32 pitches per plate appearance (the MLB average is 3.90). His swing decisions have also improved, offering at a career-high 79.4% of in-zone pitches and dropping his chase rate to a career-low 30.4%. That is crucial because it's not like he has magically acquired Arraez's contact skills—he is still whiffing on one of every five swings. Bruján's approach is quite different from Arraez's. Bruján is swinging at 54.9% of first-pitch strikes, nearly doubled the league average; throughout his career, Arraez has been passive on the first pitch, including a 20.9% swing rate this season. It's not yet clear what Bruján will be as a baserunner. This past offseason, he led the Dominican Winter League with 23 stolen bases, but he just picked up his first pair of Marlins steals on Friday. His 27.1 ft/sec Sprint Speed is barely above Arraez's (26.5 ft/sec) and way down from where Bruján used to be (28.8 ft/sec in 2021 and 28.5 ft/sec in 2022). Bizarre, troubling trend for a 26-year-old. Overall, there is a 50-point gap between Bruján's actual weighted on-base average (.352 wOBA) and his expected mark based on batted ball data (.302 xwOBA). Regression is inevitable. Arraez is an absurd comp for Bruján, in case that was not obvious already. Back in November, I likened Bruján to longtime utilityman Leury García instead and stand by that. He's somebody who you can feel okay with giving stretches of consistent playing time to when necessary, but ideally, he'll back up superior players. Even with infielder Jake Burger nearing his return from the injured list, this is the Bruján's window to legitimize himself. Ample playing time should be available at second base and third base (on days when Burger is at 1B/DH). His emergence as a viable major leaguer would ever-so-slightly soften the blow of losing Arraez. View full article

I would say it's a C+. Okay. You can feel confident that there will be some major league production coming from this package no matter what. It's just the upside is limited because of Dillon Head's non-existent power and Nathan Martorella being limited to 1B/DH moving forward.

Minutes before first pitch of Friday's game, the Marlins agreed to ship the reigning NL batting champ to San Diego. The latest Miami Marlins rebuild is now officially underway. All-Star Luis Arraez was traded to the San Diego Padres on Saturday morning for OF Dillon Head, RHP Woo-Suk Go, OF Jakob Marsee and 1B Nathan Martorella. The Marlins also included nearly $8M in the deal, leaving the Padres responsible for only a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum salary for the rest of the season. Arraez concludes his Marlins tenure with a .343/.384/.450 slash line (127 wRC+). The 2023 National League All-Star and batting champion contributed 3.5 fWAR in 180 games played. A full-time second baseman in Miami, Arraez figures to get most of his reps for the Padres in the DH spot (that's where they utilized him on Saturday night in his Padres debut). Arraez was initially in Friday's Marlins lineup, occupying his usual leadoff spot. He was scratched shortly before the game began and watched the first several innings from the dugout, hugging his soon-to-be former teammates. Following the 2023 season, Aram Leighton of Just Baseball ranked Head (sixth), Marsee (10th) and Martorella (13th) among the top prospects in San Diego's farm system. None of the trio require 40-man roster spots yet. The 19-year-old Head has been playing center field regularly at Low-A, posting an 85 wRC+ in 21 games this season. Marsee, 23, is also a center fielder. He has a 96 wRC+ with 12 stolen bases already in 22 games at Double-A. Martorella has been very productive at the plate so far in 2024, entering Friday with a 132 wRC+ in 23 Double-A contests. He's also 23 years old. Go, a 25-year-old reliever from South Korea with no MLB experience yet, is under contract through 2025 with a $3M mutual option for 2026. He had been assigned to the Padres' Double-A affiliate (4.38 ERA and 2.15 FIP in 12.1 IP) and will slide into Arraez's 40-man spot. b3ab66cf-59fc-4dd1-a040-a803d7749661.mp4 Rosenthal and The Athletic's Dennis Lin had previously reported that the Marlins and Padres engaged in Arraez trade talks prior to Opening Day. It's unclear if any of the prospects in the final deal were also part of the "strong offer" that was on the table during spring training. Arraez wanted to sign a long-term extension with the Marlins. He was direct about that. However, there's no evidence that the club had a genuine willingness to pay what it would require to come to terms with the 27-year-old infielder. Even including a recent three-game winning streak, the Marlins have had an awful 9-24 start to the season that made it clear they wouldn't be competing for another playoff berth. As one of the Marlins' most expensive players ($10.6M salary in 2024) and someone who was rapidly approaching free agency after the 2025 season, Arraez was an obvious trade chip. In his public comments on Saturday, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was adamant that there was no urgency to part with him. Rather, the timing came down to being offered a prospect package that was "too good of a deal to pass up." There is now a void at second base—Arraez had started each of Miami's first 33 games at the position. Otto Lopez filled his shoes on Friday. Once Jake Burger returns from the injured list in the coming days and begins serving as the primary Marlins third baseman again, expect Vidal Bruján to play second frequently. View full article

Welcome to FOF's 34th Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. Late night with the Fish for the first time this year. Hot-hitting Dane Myers will make his first major league start in the cleanup spot. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: RHP Darren McCaughan recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; RHP Bryan Hoeing (left hamstring strain) placed on the 15-day injured list retroactive to May 2. Kevin Barral will be writing the game recap.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Top highlights of pitchers Roddery Muñoz, Edward Cabrera and Burch Smith from the Marlins' series against the Colorado Rockies (April 30-May 2, 2024). View full video

Marlins news roundup for 5/3/24 On Thursday, frustrating start for Edward Cabrera (4.0 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 9 K). His pure stuff was phenomenal, but his command was inconsistent and old friend Jacob Stallings capitalized by crushing a three-run home run. Jesús Sánchez had the 10th-inning, walk-off hit, singling the opposite way against a left-hander in a two-strike count. Miami's bullpen allowed only one (unearned) run over the course of the series. The Marlins won, 5-4. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 2-0. Double-A Pensacola lost, 6-1. High-A Beloit won, 5-1. Good outing for LHP Cade Gibson (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K). Low-A Jupiter lost, 9-2. Another clean inning for RHP Josh Ekness (0.75 ERA this season), who should be moving up to Beloit any day now. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 Jesús Luzardo (left flexor muscle strain) is scheduled to make a minor league rehab start on Sunday. He could potentially come off the injured list during the following weekend. 🔷 Reliever Mychal Givens exercised the May 1 opt-out in his minor league deal and became a free agent. In nine relief appearances with Jacksonville (11.1 IP), he posted a 7.94 ERA and 5.25 FIP. Givens' stuff simply is not what it used to be—he had been averaging around 90 mph with his fastball. 🔷 Through 10 Marlins series, @Michael Cronin has moved into a tie for the Prediction Time lead. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 Traditionally played from June to August, the Florida Complex League schedule has been shifted up a month in 2024. Opening Day for the FCL Marlins is on Saturday. Notable Marlins prospects who are on the initial roster and will be making their stateside debut include OF Andrés Valor, INF Fabian López and INF Yoffry Solano. 🔷 RHP Max Meyer (No. 46) is ranked as the Marlins' top prospect on Baseball America's updated Top 100 MLB prospects list. RHP Noble Meyer ranks 67th overall. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE tonight from 6:00-7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Francisco Lindor hit an 11th-inning, two-run, walk-off double for the Mets. Not yet 28 years old, retired former Marlin Jordan Yamamoto is coaching high school baseball these days (via Isaac Edelman). 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter LHP Ryan Weathers) visit the Athletics (LHP JP Sears). It's the final trip that the Fish will be making to Oakland for the foreseeable future as the A's intend to relocate to Sacramento in 2025 and eventually Las Vegas several years after that. The Marlins have a 44.7% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 1:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola at Mississippi, 7:35 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Cedar Rapids, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at St. Lucie, 6:10 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Welcome to FOF's 33rd Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. Getaway day matinee! SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: none. Enjoy live on-site coverage from Kevin Barral.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Marlins news roundup for 5/2/24 On Wednesday, Roddery Muñoz's second career start (6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K) was even more impressive than his first. He induced plenty of chases on breaking balls outside the zone and commanded his sinker well. Emmanuel Rivera reached base safely in all four of his plate appearances. Just recalled over the weekend, Dane Myers already has as many RBI (five) as Luis Arraez and Tim Anderson have all season (he has also matched the total of all Marlins catchers combined). The Marlins won, 4-1. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 5-0. Jake Burger began his minor league rehab assignment by going 1-for-4 and playing the complete game at first base, while Braxton Garrett (5.0IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K) seemingly wrapped up his rehab assignment with a 61-pitch quality outing. Double-A Pensacola won, 5-3. Jacob Berry and Paul McIntosh continue to get reps in the corner outfield spots. High-A Beloit won, 6-5. LHP Emmett Olson (5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K) has now made four straight scoreless starts to begin his first full professional season. Low-A Jupiter lost, 7-2. The Hammerheads are collectively hitting just .200 this season, with organizational newcomers OF John Cruz (.123 BA) and OF/1B Yeral Martinez (.138 BA) off to especially slow starts. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 The Marlins have finally strung together consecutive wins! However, their overall .250 winning percentage is still behind the pace of the notorious 1998 Marlins. Here is my comparison between these teams through the first month-plus of their respective seasons. 🔷 In the midst of Bally Sports' carriage dispute with Comcast, a streaming alternative, the Bally Sports Florida Season Pass, has been discounted to $84.99 through the end of September. 🔷 In a redraft of the 2014 MLB Draft, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline has the Marlins taking Aaron Nola with the No. 2 overall pick. The Marlins' actual selection that year was, regrettably, Tyler Kolek. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, National League Rookie of the Year co-favorites Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both made scoreless starts. Imanaga's 0.78 ERA is the lowest among all MLB qualified starters. The Twins extended their winning streak to 10. Nearly two years removed from his last MLB appearance, Walker Buehler of the Dodgers will return from the injured list on Monday, coincidentally to face the Marlins. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Edward Cabrera) host the Rockies (RHP Peter Lambert). The Marlins have a 62.6% chance to win, per FanGraphs. That is the most heavily they've been favored entering any game so far this season. First pitch at 12:10 p.m. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola at Mississippi, 7:35 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Quad Cities, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at St. Lucie, 6:10 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Welcome to FOF's 32nd Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. Can the Fish finally secure back-to-back victories and their first winning series of the year? Tim Anderson (left thumb sprain) is out of the starting lineup for the second straight contest. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: RHP Roddery Muñoz recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville; RHP Emmanuel Ramírez optioned to Jacksonville. Enjoy live on-site coverage from Kevin Barral and Daniel Rodriguez.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Thanks for listening. Yeah, Skip must be held partially accountable for what's happened. He has been unacceptably complacent when it comes to keeping players in the same roles even when it's apparent that they're struggling. His default answer to the team's problems has been to work longer hours prior to the games. There seems to be an absence of both creativity and data-driven insight right now. The best organizations use plenty of both to help players achieve peak performance.

More than a month into the MLB regular season, this is still on pace to be the worst team in Marlins history. The toxic vibes surrounding the 1998 Marlins are unlikely to ever be replicated. Before the champagne could dry following the franchise's first World Series title celebration, most of that team's key contributors vanished via free agency or trade. From the get-go, there wasn't the faintest possibility of contending for a postseason berth despite having accomplished so much the year before. Although the dysfunction of the 2024 Marlins will not elicit quite as much anger from the fanbase, this team is stunningly comparable from a statistical standpoint so far. A bevy of embarrassing records that have stood for more than a quarter-century are in peril of changing hands, and some of them already have through the first month of competition. 1998 Marlins: 54-108 record, minus-256 run differential 2024 Marlins: on pace for 37-125 record, minus-329 run differential During March/April 1998, the Marlins went 9-18 with a minus-26 run differential. That included an 11-game losing streak, which is still tied for the longest such streak in Fish history. They had fallen eight games back of the nearest National League playoff spot. During March/April 2024, the Marlins went 7-24 with a minus-63 run differential. That included separate losing streaks of nine and seven games in length, the former occurring at the very start of the regular season. They have fallen 9.5 games back of the nearest NL playoff spot even with the implementation of two additional Wild Card spots per league. All this despite having had the advantage of playing 18 games in their home ballpark (tied for the most of any MLB team). It's the worst 31-game start that the Marlins have ever endured. The 1998 Marlins actually had a deep, respectable lineup early on. Outfielder Cliff Floyd (.260/.390/.542, 8 HR, 4 SB through one month) was their best all-around performer, but Gary Sheffield, Derrek Lee and Craig Counsell each had been hitting well themselves. Florida's .743 OPS was slightly better than the National League average! The offensive disparity is hysterical. To repeat, .743 OPS for the opening month of the 1998 season. This year, meanwhile, the Marlins' leader in OPS among players to receive semi-regular playing time is...Vidal Bruján at .741. There are zero consistently good hitters in Miami right now. Quite a feat of futility while living in the universal DH era. The 1998 offense cooled off soon after April ended in large part because of a May 14 blockbuster that sent away Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich and Charles Johnson. While Peter Bendix's front office will not be hesitant to trade productive veterans, it's fairly safe to assume that they'll wait deeper into the season before making moves of that magnitude. The 2024 team is edging out 1998 in run prevention by a quarter-run per game, overcoming appallingly sloppy defense and a high volume of pitching injuries in the process. The '98 club would go on to allow the second-most runs in the majors (923); the current club is on pace to allow 909. If we are to conservatively pencil in Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer for 45 more combined starts between now and season's end, there will be meaningful improvement. Hopefully, the 1998 vs. 2024 comparisons do not linger all season, but that is up to the Marlins to get their s*** together. Through May '98, they had a 17-38 record. Another installment of this article series awaits next month if the Marlins still have fewer than 20 wins by then. May 2024 schedule View full article

Marlins news roundup for 5/1/24 On Tuesday, the Rockies pummeled Sixto Sánchez for five runs in the top of the first, while Ryan Feltner easily and efficiently silenced Miami's bats through eight frames. Then, the 2023 Marlins crashed the party. In an inexplicable comeback reminiscent of several we witnessed last season, the Marlins scored five times in the ninth and twice more in the 10th. Dane Myers—who was only in the game to replace an ejected Jazz Chisholm Jr.—drove home Bryan De La Cruz for the game-deciding run. The Marlins won, 7-6. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 7-6. LHP Devin Smeltzer (1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) endured his worst relief outing of the season. Double-A Pensacola won, 5-3. INF Cody Morissette (3-for-4) is quietly hitting .359 over the last two weeks. LHP Chandler Jozwiak still has not allowed a run through seven appearances. High-A Beloit lost, 6-0. Low-A Jupiter lost, 11-1. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 Recently designated for assignment, Kyle Tyler and Kent Emanuel both predictably cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville. remains in DFA limbo. 🔷 There is a carriage dispute between Comcast and Bally Sports channels, taking Bally Sports Florida and Bally Sports Sun off of cable for Comcast subscribers. As Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald details, viewers impacted by this can access Marlins games through the Bally Sports app or by subscribing to Bally's Marlins Season Pass. Still an extreme inconvenience. 🔷 Marlins radio voice Kyle Sielaff was the special guest on a new episode of Fish Unfiltered. Subscribe to Fish On First wherever you get your podcasts! 🔷 Sielaff's predecessor, Glenn Geffner, just launched his own pod, Crooked Numbers (trailer embedded below). Each week, he is going to share fun and interesting numbers that will be jumping off points to help tell some fun and interesting stories related to the game, both past and present. 🔷 Eno Sarris of The Athletic takes note of how Bryan De La Cruz is impacting more balls at productive angles and velocities in a way that should be predictive of a power increase. 🔷 The latest Fish On First LIVE episode discussed how the Marlins' circumstances compare to the Rockies. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 The Marlins are expanding their analytics department, with new job listings for an analyst, junior analyst, senior analyst and data engineer. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the World Baseball Classic championship game is expected to be held at loanDepot park again in 2026, per Craig Mish. Not yet clear whether the ballpark will be hosting as many total games as it did during the 2023 edition of the tournament. The White Sox lost and retook MLB's worst record from the Marlins. Mike Trout is injured again and will undergo left meniscus surgery (he'll certainly return later this season, but still a bummer). The game between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers was delayed nearly two hours because of...bees?! Like the Fish, the D-backs ultimately won in 10th-inning walk-off fashion at 2:22 a.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Roddery Muñoz) host the Rockies (RHP Dakota Hudson). I expect Muñoz to take Emmanuel Ramirez's spot on the active roster. The Marlins have a 56.7% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule (Braxton Garrett and Jake Burger will both be making rehab starts with Jacksonville): Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola at Mississippi, 12:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Quad Cities, 12:10 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at St. Lucie, 1:10 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article