You are overestimating Tanner Scott's trade value

Tanner Scott was a relatively anonymous middle reliever when the Miami Marlins acquired him in April 2022. In 156 career innings pitched at the major league level, he had a lifetime 4.73 ERA (95 ERA+), 4.00 FIP and only one career save. He worked a career-high 62 games during the previous campaign for the 110-loss Baltimore Orioles, but still had unresolved control issues (14.7 BB% and 10 WP). For the cost of a competitive balance round draft pick and three fringy prospects—Kevin Guerrero, Antonio Velez and Yaqui Rivera—the Marlins were able to add Scott and fellow reliever Cole Sulser.

In parts of three seasons with the Fish, Scott has established himself as a high-leverage weapon. He has sliced his home run rate in half, leading to a much-improved 2.89 ERA (152 ERA+) and 2.94 FIP. He has tallied 40 saves for Miami and was also on the mound to clinch the club's 2023 postseason berth. As of this writing, Scott is in the midst of a 15-inning scoreless streak (20 straight innings without allowing an earned run). Even with Sulser failing to contribute, the Marlins won that trade.

Obviously, Scott's achievements make him appealing to a greater number of teams compared to a few years ago. However, his market value is not much higher at the moment. Flipping the veteran left-hander to a contender in the coming weeks won't fetch a huge haul, at least not if he's flipped on his own.

Scott was undisputedly an elite reliever in 2023. He struck out 104 batters in relief, overpowering both righty and lefty opponents, compared to just 21 unintentional walks. He stranded all but three of the baserunners that he inherited. Scott ranked first among MLB bullpen arms in win probability added (4.9 WPA) and Baseball-Reference WAR (3.6 bWAR) and tied for first in FanGraphs WAR (2.8 fWAR).

Understandably, Scott entered 2024 as Miami's full-time closer. He raised concerns during spring training when he surrendered 10 runs through his first three Grapefruit League appearances. He settled down after that, only to slump again once the real games began. The low point came on April 14 when he blew a save against the Atlanta Braves via Marcell Ozuna's go-ahead, three-run homer. He hasn't allowed an earned run since then. Ozuna remains the only batter who has taken him deep this year.

Although Scott has everybody's attention with his streak and bottom line run prevention (1.30 ERA/331 ERA+ in 2024), that is not necessarily predictive of what he'll do moving forward. His reduced walk rate from last season (7.8 BB%) was an anomaly—he has soared to a 16.4 BB%, his worst since becoming an MLB regular. His FIP in 2024 is 3.51, approximately the same as his career mark. In the aftermath of the Luis Arraez trade, there were rumblings that the now-rebuilding Marlins could move Scott next, but six weeks have come and gone without any action.

That last detail—the element of time—is crucial because Scott is a pending free agent. Even a notoriously hard worker like him is going to appear in fewer than half of his team's games. Relievers can have an outsized impact during the playoffs, but that is largely out of his control (the Marlins trailed throughout their 2023 NL Wild Card Series matchup, which took Scott out of the equation). While the upside for the acquiring club is still tantalizing, there's also the possibility that Scott doesn't move the needle whatsoever and leaves this coming winter.

In the estimation of Baseball Trade Values, Scott had $3.7M in median trade value when the Marlins got him. As of Thursday, his value is at $3.6M. With his remaining club control evaporating, he has come full circle.

When trading Arraez, the Marlins ate nearly all of the salary still owed to him this season to extract a better prospect return. They may attempt to do the same with Scott, who's making $5.7M (approx. $3.4M yet to be paid). That cannot be assumed, though. They'll need cooperation from their eventual trade partner. Those of you who were underwhelmed by the Arraez deal are about to be underwhelmed again.

If Scott brings back a genuine blue-chip prospect, it will be because he was bundled with a bigger asset such as Jesús Luzardo or Jazz Chisholm Jr. If the Marlins shop Scott on his own, the realistic best-case scenario would look something like what the Marlins themselves gave up for David Robertson last summer (teenagers INF Marco Vargas and C/1B Ronald Hernández).