How much total value Marlins acquired, sent away in 2024 trades

[Ely Sussman]

The cast of characters in the Marlins organization has changed dramatically over the past year and gotten younger, but at least in one model's estimation, this series of transactions wasn't especially efficient.

Several times throughout their history, the Miami Marlins have seized control of a seller's market, making numerous trades in quick succession that push back their competition timeline in pursuit of a long-term objective. It was not immediately clear what direction Peter Bendix would steer the franchise upon being hired in November 2023, but he began following that familiar script soon after the start of Miami's disastrous 2024 campaign. While it's way too soon to draw conclusions based on the results, now's an appropriate time to reflect on a hyperactive year and try to quantity what the Marlins parted with compared to what they received in return.

Baseball Trade Values got a bad rap in the early 2020s when wishful fans constantly concocted and screenshotted proposals using the free-at-the-time trade simulator to make their favorite teams substantially better without accounting for the desires of the other team(s). But all things considered, BTV does a nice job of appraising major leaguers and minor leaguers with the same currency (surplus trade value, expressed in millions of dollars).

The BTV model acknowledges the inexactitude of its player valuations. A lot of information about players isn't publicly available, so their site publishes a low, median and high estimate for each of them. The high value is typically 50% above the low. When a trade is reported, they'll tweet out the median estimates of the assets involved (examples here).

The following list includes all of the substantial trades made by the Marlins during the past calendar year, meaning those that sent players in both directions as well as the Josh Bell partial salary dump. In a few cases (denoted by ???), traded minor leaguers were not previously in BTV's system because they were unranked by public prospect evaluators. Let's count them as $0.5 million apiece.

 

2024 Marlins trade activity summary

-February 11 (MIA/MIN)—Marlins acquired Nick Gordon ($0.2M surplus trade value) for Steven Okert ($3.5M)

-March 27 (MIA/NYY/TB)—Marlins acquired Shane Sasaki ($1.3M) and John Cruz ($1.9M) for Jon Berti ($4.7M)

-April 6 (MIA/HOU)—Marlins acquired Valente Bellozo (???) and cash considerations for Jacob Amaya ($2.6M)

-May 4 (MIA/SD)—Marlins acquired Dillon Head ($8.9M), Jakob Marsee ($5.7M), Nathan Martorella ($4.2M) and Woo-Suk Go ($0.7M) for Luis Arraez ($5.3M) and cash (approx. $7.9M)

-July 25 (MIA/AZ)—Marlins acquired Deyvison De Los Santos ($8.0M) and Andrew Pintar ($2.5M) for A.J. Puk ($8.2M)

-July 27 (MIA/NYY)—Marlins acquired Agustín Ramírez ($11.1M), Jared Serna ($5.6M) and Abrahan Ramírez (???) for Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($33.6M)

-July 30 (MIA/BAL)—Marlins acquired Connor Norby ($10.1M) and Kyle Stowers ($0.1M) for Trevor Rogers ($18.0M)

-July 30 (MIA/AZ)—Marlins acquired cash considerations for Josh Bell (-$4.7M) and cash (approx. $3.6M)

-July 30 (MIA/SEA)—Marlins acquired Will Schomberg (???) for JT Chargois (-$0.4M)

-July 30 (MIA/SD)—Marlins acquired Robby Snelling ($10.6M), Adam Mazur ($8.0M), Graham Pauley ($6.0M) and Jay Beshears ($1.1M) for Tanner Scott ($5.5M) and Bryan Hoeing ($0.1M)

-July 30 (MIA/PIT)—Marlins acquired Garret Forrester ($1.1M) and Jun-Seok Shim ($0.8M) for Bryan De La Cruz ($3.2M)

-July 30 (MIA/NYM)—Marlins acquired Wilfredo Lara ($0.5M) for Huascar Brazoban ($8.3M)

-December 11 (MIA/TEX)—Marlins acquired Echedry Vargas ($7.3M), Max Acosta ($2.4M) and Brayan Mendoza ($0.7M) for Jake Burger ($11.0M)

-December 22 (MIA/PHI)—Marlins acquired Starlyn Caba ($22.2M) and Emaarion Boyd ($0.9M) for Jesús Luzardo ($21.9M) and Paul McIntosh ($0.8M)

-December 29 (MIA/CHC)—Marlins acquired Matt Mervis ($0.4M) and cash considerations for Vidal Bruján ($0.0M)

 

Some of the Marlins' trades were "rejected" by the BTV model at the time—they got too much in return for Scott/Hoeing and not enough for Chisholm or Rogers. Overall, a total of $132.3 million in surplus value went out and $123.8 million came in.

You could argue that the Marlins made up for that $8.5 million gap with waiver wire acquisitions. While many of those claims amounted to nothing, Otto Lopez and Declan Cronin currently hold a combined $15.1 million in surplus value after being designated for assignment less than a year ago. There's also Jonah Bride ($1.6M), who was acquired for cash considerations.

The vast majority of MLB veterans traded away by the Fish were under club control beyond 2024. A handful of them have since been released anyway due to downturns in their production combined with rising salaries. At least they got something in return for Berti, Chargois, De La Cruz, etc. before it was too late.

As he adds negotiating experience, perhaps Bendix will "fleece" his peers more frequently with the tone and timing of his moves, but ultimately, the key to sustainable winning is player development. Player values change based on projected performance in relation to contracts and years of control. If the Marlins provide their guys with the right coaching guidance and analytical feedback, they'll turn out better than the rest of the industry anticipated.

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[Hans Herrera]

It would be extremely difficult to measure the "success rate" of this new fire sale anytime soon whether using BTV or any other tool. It's going to take a couple of years to see how good -or bad- the farm system got. Over the next two years, we can only see how the farm system ranks in MLB, that is probably the best guess. Maybe the '27-'30 window would be more accurate to properly evaluate.

As for 2025-2026, we can see glimpses of the new era with De Los Santos, Agustín Ramírez, Snelling, Serna, Acosta, and maybe Mazur. Those are the short-term answers, but none of them were fully developed by the now-overhauled scouting and player development department.

The "new administration" is all-in on player development, or at least so far it's been consistent with the ZERO-Free Agents winter while retooling the scouting and coaching corps.

I do believe this methodology is good but it had terrible timing for the fanbase. Miami had a "young", mostly controllable team freshly coming from playoffs. Injuries had their share, yes, but it really hurts to see an overall good core vanish in 4-6 months.

What I don't justify is the extremely cheap approach by this ownership. At least you can go after a couple of veterans, hoping to get more prospects by the trade deadline with some good performances. Maybe will happen before Spring Training, but by then all the good reclamation projects would be gone. We'll see.

I understand Bendix. He was brought here to do what he (supposedly) knows: Develop a strong, consistent, and perennial top farm system with limited resources. He identified that position player development had enormous faults. Another thing I do not agree with is getting rid of the entire pitching department, both development and ML level.

Too late now to cry a river. By starting over, Bendix bought himself 4-5 years of his role. If we are lucky, we might get another playoff run before Sandy's contract expires if he isn't traded this coming year. Fast your seatbelts and cross your fingers, this can get uglier.

[Slacker Mills]

The question is: Did the Marlins acquire any players that are a good bet to be better than average major leaguers?

I'd say no. 

[Hans Herrera]

4 minutes ago, Slacker Mills said:

The question is: Did the Marlins acquire any players that are a good bet to be better than average major leaguers?

I'd say no. 

Head, Snelling, Caba, Ramírez, and (hopefully) Norby can become average-or-better players. None of them are a blue-chip material, though.

[Slacker Mills]

I have some hope for Snelling as the best of the lot. He could be another Weathers if he finds a little more velocity. His FIP after joining the Fish last season was 2.76.

[BMK3]

The big story right now seems to be can the Marlins possibly get their payroll to $105M to justify MLB GIVING them $70M in competitive balance money which they are required to spend.  The answer at this moment is NO.

I am not saying Sherman is a serial killer. I am saying he has no business owning a baseball team.  GET HIM OUTTA HERE please. 

[rurrusuno]

8 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

The question is: Did the Marlins acquire any players that are a good bet to be better than average major leaguers?

I'd say no. 

I don't think so either. Agustin Ramirez and DLS are my only hopes for now. 

[rurrusuno]

4 hours ago, BMK3 said:

The big story right now seems to be can the Marlins possibly get their payroll to $105M to justify MLB GIVING them $70M in competitive balance money which they are required to spend.  The answer at this moment is NO.

I am not saying Sherman is a serial killer. I am saying he has no business owning a baseball team.  GET HIM OUTTA HERE please. 

The Marlins payroll at $105M? That's not happening this season. I'd be surprised if it even hit $50M any time soon. 

[Russell]

14 hours ago, Slacker Mills said:

The question is: Did the Marlins acquire any players that are a good bet to be better than average major leaguers?

I'd say no. 

That is the million dollar question, whether or not any of these guys will have impact as major leaguers.

[Russell]

13 hours ago, Hans Herrera said:

Head, Snelling, Caba, Ramírez, and (hopefully) Norby can become average-or-better players. None of them are a blue-chip material, though.

I don't like that Head is supposed to be a speed guy and at 20 years old has already had hip surgery.

[Chad Turner]

•  Gordon disappointed, but Okert didn't do much either.  TIE
• I hated the Berti trade and still do.  LOSS
• Bellozo was given to us after we waived Amaya produced more WAR than Amaya probably ever will. WIN
• Head, Marsee, and Martorella had a rough go of it, but Arraez didn't produce much WAR either.  Head still could be something special.  TIE
• I love DDLS.  I hope he proves me right, because Pintar doesn't have much value.  Puk is nasty and controllable, but just a RP.  TIE
• Jazz for 3 flawed prospects.  TBD.  Right now I have my doubts.  Yanks look like geniuses for moving him to 3B.  
• I'd do Norby for Rogers right now, so I'm saying WIN
• Bell is a FA now, so we didn't lose by saving.  
• Chargois is also a FA, but we didn't get much. 
• Snelling went from pitcher of the year to running into a wall, but he's young.  I wish we still had Hoeing.  Mazur and the others didn't do much after the trade.  Verdict still out on this one.  
• Forrester is a former 3rd rd pick and Shim looked bad in the AFL.  DLC burned out, so this is a WIN.  
• Lara posted a .761 OPS after the trade and Braz didn't look good and is now 35. WIN!

 

 

[THOMAS JOSEPH]

"... ultimately, the key to sustainable winning is player development."

Amen. It's the only way that is under direct team control barring a Cohen clone owner. 

I will also add two other systemic keys: MLB must make significant changes in the CBA for the sustainability of low-revenue teams after the 2026 season and develop a solid television scheme for the future as a corollary to that new Agreement,