Can Deyvison De Los Santos overcome these approach concerns?

[Sean McCormack]

The reigning minor league home run king and headline prospect in the A.J. Puk deal has some major red flags. 

First, I would like to highlight how hard Deyvison De Los Santos hits the ball. He has posted a max exit velocity of 119 mph, putting him in the company of MLB's elite power hitters like Ohtani, Judge, and Stanton. This is especially impressive coming from a 21-year-old.

De Los Santos has made a name for himself in the baseball world by leading all of Minor League Baseball in home runs. Many Marlins fans were understandably excited to add somebody like this to their minor league system. Although his potential is through the roof, there are some major concerns to highlight when it comes to plate approach.

De Los Santos had 12 home runs with Triple-A Jacksonville after joining the Marlins org in late July, and 40 on the year between AA and AAA. It feels as if many people can be blinded by his immense power and miss out on a critical question: If he isn't hitting home runs, what can he do?

De Los Santos does not walk. He had a 5% walk rate following the trade, which tied into his poor .284 OBP. His chase and whiff rates are even more concerning.

This graphic shows De Los Santos' whiff rates per zone from August and September. The right-handed batter has a massive hole up and inside. He also swings and misses a ton out of the zone. This swing-happy approach has hurt his production greatly. In the final 30 games of the season, De Los Santos chased at a 51% rate. For context, league average is a 28% chase rate. When you combine bad whiff and chase rates, you get too many strikeouts.

De Los Santos only had a 28% strikeout rate as a Marlins prospect. That seems manageable on the surface with the help of an above-league-average 57% out-of-zone contact rate. However, I believe if he were to play in the major leagues right now, he'd easily have strikeout rates over 35%. Teams scout opposing players more thoroughly in the majors and would know that they have no reason to throw him anything near the zone, the same way Javier Báez is treated. 

Because De Los Santos has been making hard contact in all quadrants of the zone, he has adopted an aggressive mindset, leading to quick plate appearances that keep his strikeout rate down. This may work in the minor leagues, but a jump in quality of stuff and scouting would certainly hinder his ability to maintain this.

When De Los Santos isn't hitting the ball over the fence, he's usually putting it on the ground. This season, he posted a 53 GB% with Jacksonville. This is due to swinging at everything, even offspeed and breaking pitches that dip below the zone.

As the season went on, De Los Santos saw fewer fastballs and more secondary stuff. He saw less and less pitches in the zone, but continued to try to hit them. 

It's not all doom and gloom, though. De Los Santos is only 21 years old and the Marlins can afford to be patient. They are clearly committed to the young slugger with hopes of developing his eye and patience. Skill and talent is not the issue—he has real 50 home run potential. If De Los Santos simply swung and missed at an above-league-average rate, he'd be the best power hitter the Marlins have had since Stanton.

My fear is that if De Los Santos does not fix his approach, he has no value as a player outside of hitting home runs. He is going to be a 1B/DH, which gives him nearly no margin for error in terms of his development.

De Los Santos is the epitome of a boom-or-bust prospect. His "boom" is really loud and his "bust" is strikingly low.

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[Hans Herrera]

This is a great article and everything is actually well pointed. In the context that he has a full season in AAA, and probably has little to nothing to show at that level, the burning question is:

Are the Marlins willing to find out straightaway if he’s going to perform at the Major League level or will the give him a Johnston-type treatment (that is, leave him forever at AAA until “he figures it out”)?

[Chad Turner]

He's about 4 years younger than the average AAA player, so he has time to figure it out, unlike Johnston (who is the definition of a quad-A guy).  That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in AAA until the trade deadline.  

[Sean McCormack]

3 hours ago, Hans Herrera said:

This is a great article and everything is actually well pointed. In the context that he has a full season in AAA, and probably has little to nothing to show at that level, the burning question is:

Are the Marlins willing to find out straightaway if he’s going to perform at the Major League level or will the give him a Johnston-type treatment (that is, leave him forever at AAA until “he figures it out”)?

I believe the Marlins are almost definitely going to use this upcoming spring training to tell if he is ready for MLB. He is also playing currently in the DWL, take that as you will. You see 1B/DH get this “Troy Johntson” treatment in all organizations. Think about Matt Mervis with the cubs, they took awhile to promote him. Luken Baker, spends most his time in AAA. Even a guy like Michael Busch couldn’t crack the dodgers 26 man consistently. What makes these guys stand out in my opinion is their ability to make contact and get on base. An example is Pete Alonso. Deyvison has probably more power in the tank than Alonso who is a 50 Homerun guy, but he is able to just hit enough and have a good enough eye at the plate to not have absorbent chase and whiff rates. Which seem to hold back guys like Mervis or Baker. 

[Slacker Mills]

I'd give De Lost Santos about a 20% chance of being a 1.00 OPS+, or average, major league hitter at some point. He has a couple years in AAA to work things out.