Ely Sussman

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Garrett is the posterchild for why it's important to look under the hood at FIP. His ERA has been bloated by inherited runners who scored after he exited his start, whereas a starter's FIP is unaffected by how the relievers behind him perform. On the other hand, Sánchez is an example of how FIP can also be misleading. He fares well in this stat because he prevents homers. Still, he makes a lot of mistakes over the heart of the plate and consistently gets hit hard. FIP treats this as bad luck rather than recognizing his stuff is simply more hittable than his peers.

You picked a smart game to go to. For whatever reason, they have played their best this season in series finales (9-8 record in those situations).

Big Fish Small Pod for 5/27/24 Ely Sussman shares recent stats and observations about prospects from each full-season level of the Miami Marlins farm system: Triple-A Jacksonville OF Griffin Conine, Double-A Pensacola 1B Nathan Martorella, High-A Beloit RHP Nigel Belgrave and Low-A Jupiter OF Colby Shade. Find Big Fish Small Pod on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. The Fish On First podcast is now being presented by MPT College Consulting! They pride themselves on helping clients navigate the college application process. This includes preparation for standardized testing, guidance through high school, assistance with essays and applications, and choosing the right college. Visit them today at mptcollegeconsulting.com to learn more about their services and schedule a free consultation. Griffin Conine has spent nearly four years in the Marlins org after coming over from the Blue Jays in the 2020 Jonathan Villar trade. He's streaky at the plate and this is one of his fiery stretches, with a 1.015 OPS over his last three series. That raises his slash line this season to .237/.349/.466, almost perfectly aligned with his minor league career averages. Conine's 29.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is on pace to be his lowest since short-season ball in 2018, and it marks a significant improvement from his 38.5 K% at Triple-A last season. Nathan Martorella (FOF #9 prospect) was acquired from the San Diego Padres in the Luis Arraez trade. Surprisingly, he's being utilized more often in left field (11 starts) than first base (seven starts). Martorella is in the midst of a deep slump, recording hits in only three of his last 40 at-bats. His groundball rate (25.5%) is lower than anybody else's in the Marlins org who's gotten comparable playing time this season and he's frequently pulling the ball, yet it has not led to any homers. A 2023 Marlins draft pick, Nigel Belgrave is seemingly on the fast track to joining Miami's big league bullpen. Split evenly between Low-A and High-A, he has posted a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP this season. Belgrave's slider is quickly emerging as a plus-plus pitch, proving to be especially dominant against righties. He could rise to Double-A by season's end. Another recent draftee, Colby Shade is serving as Jupiter's everyday center fielder. He has gone 16-for-17 on stolen base attempts on a Hammerheads team that leads all Low-A affiliate with 106 steals. Although he's homered only twice in 150 plate appearances, that's tied for the team lead! Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article

Offishial news for 5/27/24 On Sunday, the Diamondbacks could not get anything going against Ryan Weathers (6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K, 91 pitches/60 strikes). Jake Burger capped off his excellent weekend with a two-run single. Tanner Scott pitched a 1-2-3 ninth inning to continue his scoreless month of May. The Marlins won, 3-1. That's now four consecutive series wins. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 3-1. RHP Roddery Muñoz (8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 93 pitches/62 strikes) matched the longest start by any Marlins minor leaguer this season. INF Xavier Edwards played a complete game for the first time on his rehab assignment. Double-A Pensacola lost, 3-2. INF Cody Morissette went 2-for-4 and has quietly been the most consistent Blue Wahoos hitter this season (119 wRC+). High-A Beloit lost, 9-3. Four errors committed by the Sky Carp, who have lost 13 of their last 16 games. Low-A Jupiter lost, 5-2. INF Jesús Hernández hit his first home run of the season. Here's more Marlins news and content for you: 🔷 The Marlins made three more international free agent signings last week: 19-year-old RHP Melvin Cuevas, 18-year-old INF Diwarys Encarnación and 17-year-old RHP Albert Ortiz. Each of them are from the Dominican Republic and should be playing in the Dominican Summer League this season. 🔷 Listen back to Sunday's State of the Fish call-in show. 🔷 Through 17 Marlins series, there remains a three-way tie atop the Prediction Time leaderboard. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 At the one-third mark of the 2024 regular season, Isaac Azout, Kevin Barral and I are looking back at our bold predictions for the Marlins. 🔷 RHP Noble Meyer showed the highest velocity of his professional career on Saturday and recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts. Kevin interviewed him afterwards. 🔷 Christina De Nicola of MLB.com spoke to Marlins assistant general manager Oz Ocampo about how the team decided to sign Japanese RHP Raisei Nakamura. 🔷 Jolly Olive posted part two of his entire trade history of the Marlins, covering the most notable transactions from late 2005 through the present day. 🔷 I feel compelled to share yet another update on Andrew Salas, the 16-year-old infielder who'll be signing with the Marlins in January once he's eligible to become an international free agent. Salas went 3-for-5 with two stolen bases for LMBP's Marineros de Carabobo on Sunday. Through six professional games against much older competition, he's slashing .429/.579/.500 with six steals (leads the league). Check the stats for yourself here. andrew salas 5-26-24 highlights.mp4 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE tonight from 5:30-6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a season-ending ACL injury. He tore his right ACL against the Marlins in 2021. This time, it was the left one. With Acuña joining Spencer Strider on the shelf, Atlanta's NL East title odds are now in serious jeopardy (they've won six straight division titles entering this year). Kyle Bradish threw seven no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts against the White Sox. Dylan Floro's scoreless streak was snapped after 22 innings. It had been the longest single-season streak ever for a Nationals relief pitcher. The Dodgers have lost five games in a row, their longest losing streak since 2019. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter LHP Trevor Rogers) pay a visit to Luis Arraez in San Diego (RHP Michael King). Since joining the Padres, Arraez is slashing .390/.419/.476 (164 wRC+). The Padres have an 11-10 record over that span while Miami has gone 10-10. The Marlins have a 41.9% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

With one-third of the 2024 season complete, how have our predictions aged? On Episode #55 of Fish Unfiltered (recorded in March), Ely Sussman, Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral each shared five of their bold predictions for the upcoming Miami Marlins season. Memorial Day has historically been a popular checkpoint for a major league team's performance, and conveniently for the 2024 Marlins, it arrives exactly one-third of the way through their regular season schedule. So let's take this opportunity to revisit every prediction. The predictions have been divided into four categories, placed in descending order of the likeliness that they come to fruition. The predictor's name is in parentheses. Nailed it! Luis Arraez does not lead the Marlins in hits (via Ely)—In his only full Marlins season, Arraez racked up 203 hits, comfortably leading his club and ranking third in Major League Baseball. This was a bet against him spending the full 2024 season in Miami and it has already paid off. Arraez had only 41 hits on May 3 when the Marlins reached an agreement to ship him to the San Diego Padres. Bryan De La Cruz currently leads the Fish with 54. Trending in right direction Ryan Weathers earns NL All-Star selection (via Kevin)—Weathers has been arguably the most valuable player on the Marlins. He has trimmed his ERA in half from a season ago while consistently working deep into his starts (six-plus innings pitched in each of his last five outings). The lefty's first career All-Star selection is absolutely in play if he makes all of his scheduled starts in June. Victor Mesa Jr. plays 30 games for the Marlins (via Ely)—The 22-year-old Cuban outfielder has made a smooth transition to the Triple-A level, slashing .289/.358/.474 with eight home runs and four stolen bases in 42 games with Jacksonville. He's getting reps at all three outfield positions, though primarily center field. In the event of a Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade and/or continued sub-replacement-level performance from Jesús Sánchez, Mesa could get an extended MLB audition during the second half of the season. Griffin Conine hits first career MLB home run (via Isaac)—Conine's Jumbo Shrimp production has been comparable to Mesa's, just with fewer hits, more walks and a lot more strikeouts. He won't be starting regularly for the Marlins if they call him up, but with his all-fields power, it might only take a handful of plate appearances to blast one over the fence. Still worth monitoring Braxton Garrett posts 4.66 ERA or higher (via Ely)—The 4.66 figure was chosen because it would signify a full-run increase from Garrett's 2023 season ERA. As of this writing, the crafty lefty has an ugly 5.30 ERA, but all of the underlying data suggests he is the same guy as before. Since returning from a season-opening injured list stint, Garrett is exhibiting pinpoint command of his deep pitch arsenal and inducing ground balls at a 63.5% rate. Marlins rank top 10 in MLB in stolen bases (via Isaac)—The Marlins were on a decent stolen base pace initially. Since May 7, however, the rest of the league has left them in the dust. They rank dead last in MLB with only five steals during that span, and four of those five occurred in a single game! Overall, the Marlins are tied for 20th with 28 SB and all alone in 30th with a 66.7% success rate. Josh Bell gets 100 runs batted in (via Ely)—Bell is on pace for 81 ribbies. That'd be his highest total since 2021. Unfortunately, his century-mark pursuit is being hampered by a career-low slugging percentage. Extreme longshots Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 35 home runs and 35 stolen bases (via Isaac)—This prediction hinged on Chisholm avoiding the injured list for a change. Although he's been able to do that so far, his current pace is merely 21 homers and 27 steals. In addition to remaining injury-free, he will have to be among the very best offensive players in baseball moving forward to get it done. Five Marlins hit 20 home runs (via Isaac)—De La Cruz probably reaches 20. Likely Chisholm as well, barring a trade. Jake Burger and Bell are capable of it, but they're both lagging behind for now. There does not seem to be a viable fifth candidate. Jesús Luzardo reaches 200 innings and 200 strikeouts (via Kevin)—Luzardo's elbow scare made this workload objective borderline unreachable. With 45 ⅔ innings pitched entering his next scheduled start on Tuesday, he would have to pitch every fifth game for the Marlins through season's end while averaging seven innings per appearance. Tanner Scott records 50 saves (via Kevin)—Despite performing very well, Scott is 43 saves away from this target. It's doubtful that he will even get that many save opportunities the rest of the season. Anthony Maldonado and Anthony Bender combine for over 12.5 saves (via Isaac)—Only one combined save for the Anthonys thus far and Maldonado isn't even on the Marlins active roster at the moment. There would need to be a sooner-than-expected Scott trade to put this in play. Marlins sign Eury Pérez to contract extension (via Kevin)—Pérez would have been a logical extension candidate had he spent the 2024 season establishing himself as a quality MLB starter. Instead, he's been sidelined the entire time while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Hard to imagine either side rushing to reach a deal until the talented right-hander returns to the mound next year. Marlins make the postseason again (via Kevin)—The Marlins' improved play recently is too little, too late. Their odds of a playoff berth are only 0.3%, per FanGraphs. A.J. Puk earns NL All-Star selection (via Ely)—Puk could be a perfect high-leverage reliever through the remainder of the first half of the season and it still would not be enough to compensate for how poorly he pitched as a starter and the time he missed on the IL. View full article

Welcome to FOF's 54th Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. A victory will secure the club's fourth consecutive winning series. Ryan Weathers has performed especially well on the road this season (2.52 ERA in 6 GS). SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: none. Kevin Barral will be writing the game recap.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Welcome to FOF's 53rd Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. The Marlins have pitched back-to-back shutouts, but that scoreless streak will be in jeopardy early. Sixto Sánchez has a 19.80 ERA in the first inning this season. Vidal Bruján continues to ride the bench since Tim Anderson's return from the injured list. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: none. Nate Karzmer will be writing the game recap.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

Specifically, it's difficult to understand why Sánchez keeps batting 4th. There isn't much evidence that he is a better offensive player than Lopez right now. Getting too much credit for his 2023 season and left-handedness.

All 12 head-to-head matchups between Gallen and Chisholm have ended the same way: with an out being recorded. The Miami Marlins won on Friday. That's the most important thing, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. contributed with three catches in center field that helped preserve Braxton Garrett's shutout. However, Miami's leadoff man was once again muffled at the plate against Zac Gallen, the right-handed pitcher whom he was traded for in 2019. Chisholm attempted to bunt for a hit in the top of the first inning, but impacted the ball too hard. Gallen fielded it a few steps in front of the mound and easily made the out. In the third, Chisholm batted with runners on the corners and two outs, trying to build upon the 2-0 lead that his teammates had created that inning. Gallen struck him out swinging on a curveball in the dirt. Then in the fifth inning, Gallen K'd him looking with a 2-2 changeup at the knees. The Arizona Diamondbacks would go to their bullpen before Chisholm had a chance to face him again. gc 1-2-3.mp4 This was the fourth MLB regular season game where Chisholm and Gallen have battled each other. All four times, Chisholm has gone 0-for-3 while Gallen was in the game. Via Stathead, here is a complete summary of those head-to-head matchups: Even in a tiny sample size, these lopsided results are notable. Gallen is one of 17 pitchers who Chisholm has had at least 12 MLB plate appearances against. Gallen is the lone member of that group to prevent Chisholm from reaching base safely. Gallen's right-handedness makes his performance additionally impressive. Chisholm has been a substantially better hitter during his career when operating with the platoon advantage. Of the 31 righties who Chisholm has faced most frequently (7 PA or more), only Gallen has limited him to a .000 OPS. You could invert the 0-for-12 head-to-head results into 12-for-12 favoring Jazz and the D-backs would still be comfortably "winning" this trade. Particularly using stats that account for the players' availability, Gallen (16.8 bWAR in Arizona) has lapped Chisholm (6.9 bWAR in Miami). Gallen has received NL Cy Young award votes in three separate seasons. Both players have earned one All-Star selection apiece and will be considered again this year, but Chisholm suffered a season-ending injury that prevented him from participating in the 2022 Midsummer Classic. Overall, he has played in just 62.1% of all Marlins regular season contests since making his major league debut. Although Chisholm has youth on his side—being two-and-a-half years younger than Gallen—the Marlins might not be able to capitalize on it. Despite a recent stretch of terrific run prevention, they're still owners of the second-worst record in the NL (18-34). Postseason contention seems implausible this season (0.4% odds, per FanGraphs) and the Marlins have twice changed front office leadership since he's been in the organization, which means teams across the sport will be attempting to acquire Chisholm for themselves. The silver lining is that the combination of Chisholm's all-around potential, durability so far in 2024 and low salary ought to make his trade value higher now than it had been when the Marlins originally got him as a volatile prospect. Chisholm has created a bunch of fond memories for Fish fans through the years...just not when matched up with the top-of-the-rotation arm they could've had instead of him. View full article

Braxton Garrett turned in the best start of his career on Friday night, throwing a Maddux against the Diamondbacks and leading the Marlins to a win. View full video

Welcome to FOF's 52nd Miami Marlins game thread of the 2024 season. Zac Gallen makes his fourth career start against the Fish. Each of the previous three were quality starts and D-backs victories. SuperSubs can access exclusive game notes here. Pregame roster moves: none. Kevin Barral will be writing the game recap.

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. Got thoughts about this matchup? Head over to Fish On First's Marlins game thread. View full article

I'm very grateful for it. This is the equivalent of having complete footage from the senior season of an early first-round draft pick that the team has already agreed to select. International signings are generally difficult to assess until they come stateside, but this case is an exception. I'm already learning so much about Salas.