Ely Sussman

Today's news roundup also looks ahead to the MLB Draft lottery and Rule 5 draft. Left-hander Jesús Luzardo is "drawing trade interest," Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported on Monday, and the Marlins are "open" to moving him, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. If that sounds familiar, it should: Luzardo was being shopped exactly one year ago at the previous Winter Meetings as well. Back then, though, Luzardo was coming off a great, healthy season and still had three years of club control remaining. His trade value was immense. Once rumors of trade talks subsided, it was not entirely crazy to wonder if the Marlins might try to sign him to a contract extension. The 27-year-old Luzardo is still plenty desirable, but the Marlins don't have as much leverage this time around. Suitors will expect the Marlins to drop his price tag significantly in the aftermath of a back injury and mediocre results during the 12 starts he made in 2024. I haven't put much thought into Luzardo trade possibilities this offseason because it seems clear that the appropriate course of action is to stand pat long enough for him to re-establish himself as a quality starter, then reassess midway through 2025. Either way, Luzardo's departure from Miami is a matter of when, not if. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 The Marlins granted Mike Baumann his release so that he could sign with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball. Good opportunity for Baumann who would've been a DFA candidate leading up to Opening Day anyway. Conveniently, his departure creates some wiggle room on Miami's 40-man roster with the Rule 5 draft looming on Wednesday (clubs cannot participate in the major league phase of the draft if their 40-man is full). Our Marlins Rule 5 preview goes up on the site later today! 🔷 During a 20-minute scrum with reporters at the Winter Meetings (including our own Alex Krutchik), manager Clayton McCullough shared his excitement about Edward Cabrera's potential. McCullough said he still has vacancies on his staff for a first base coach, third base coach, assistant pitching coach and bullpen coach. 🔷 Reacting to Juan Soto's contract details, I wrote about the payroll disparity between the Marlins and Mets. 🔷 The 2025 MLB Draft lottery is being broadcasted tonight on MLB Network/MLB.com at 5:30 p.m. ET. The Marlins and Rockies are tied for the best odds of receiving the No. 1 overall pick (22.45%). There's about an 85% chance of the Fish landing in the top five. The lowest that they could possibly fall is the eighth pick. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Phillies signed Jordan Romano (1 YR/$8.5M) and the Tigers have a one-year deal in place with Alex Cobb. Japanese RHP Roki Sasaki has been posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines. He'll be signing with an MLB team as part of the 2025 international free agent class. Dick Allen and Dave Parker were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame via the Classic Baseball Era Committee process. They'll be inducted alongside whichever players make it through the BBWAA ballot (those voting results will be announced next month). 🔷 Join us immediately after the lottery for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE at 6:00 p.m. ET streaming on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. View full article

We've grown accustomed to seeing a massive payroll disparity between the Marlins and their NL East rivals, but Soto's historic contract takes it to another level. Major League Baseball's wealthiest owner, Steve Cohen, was determined to do whatever it took win the bidding war for one of the most coveted free agents ever, Juan Soto. Venerable reporters braced us for an absurd contract, yet the end result is still unfathomable. Soto and the New York Mets reached an agreement Sunday night on a 15-year, $765 million pact. None of the money is deferred. This comes close to matching the value of the two previous biggest MLB contracts put together, and he has the potential to earn even more, maxing out at $805 million if the Mets have to deter him from opting out after five years. The league previously altered its rules to account for Cohen's aggressive spending. In the most recent collective bargaining agreement, luxury tax-related penalties were made more stringent in the spirit of competitive balance. Evidently, that has done little to discourage him. While the Mets can access "the entirety of the player universe," the Miami Marlins, even with the aid of revenue sharing, have a tiny fraction of their cash. Barring dramatic changes to Bruce Sherman's ownership group, the Marlins will never successfully court an elite free agent to Miami in the prime of their career. Rather, they find themselves constantly churning experienced big leaguers for younger, cheaper alternatives who might be as good. Juan Soto's signing bonus: $75 million Projected 2025 Marlins Opening Day payroll (via Cot's Baseball Contracts): $63 million The current contrast between these teams overstates the imbalance. Last month, Sherman said he's waiting for "the right time" to increase his investment in the roster, indirectly acknowledging that the 2025 Fish are doubtful to be postseason contenders no matter which reinforcements get brought in. In the meantime, entering the second year with Peter Bendix leading baseball operations, the Marlins are devoting themselves to becoming a premier player development organization. The daunting reality is, every organization recognizes the importance of that as well. Baseball can be beautifully chaotic from year to year. As recently as July 2023, the Mets were reluctantly selling established veterans to the playoff-bound Marlins! The correlation between payroll and victories is not as sturdy as it seems in moments like this. However, unless the Marlins are truly innovative with the ways that they maximize their players' potential via analysis and coaching, how can they consistently overcome richer competition, especially in the deep-pocketed National League East division? View full article

Not quite as splashy as committing three-quarters of a billion dollars to a single player, Miami has been focusing on "things you don't see." When the Miami Marlins left the field in Toronto on the afternoon of September 29, they were one of the hottest teams in baseball, riding a four-game winning streak. Let's say that after you turned off the postgame coverage, you ceased following the Fish until this very moment. Here is what you missed... Coaching staff turnover On the evening of the 29th, Skip Schumaker and the Marlins officially parted ways. He has landed with the Texas Rangers as a senior advisor. A candidate to fill his shoes, Luis Urueta ultimately followed Schumaker to Arlington where he'll serve as Bruce Bochy's bench coach. Other members of the 2024 Miami coaching staff who have joined different MLB clubs include Jon Jay (St. Louis Cardinals) and Wellington Cepeda (Arizona Diamondbacks). The process to find Schumaker's replacement took an awkward twist when perceived frontrunner Craig Albernaz decided to forgo managerial opportunities to stay with the Cleveland Guardians for another season. The Marlins pivoted to Los Angeles Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough and announced his hiring on November 11. As of this writing, McCullough's coaching staff is approximately half-full. He'll be surrounded by bench coach Carson Vitale, hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, pitching coach Daniel Moskos, field coordinator Aaron Leanhardt and pitching strategist Brandon Mann (the lone uniformed holdover from the Schumaker era). Baseball operations realignment Peter Bendix continues to create positions that did not previously exist in the Marlins front office. Joe Migliaccio, Bill Hezel and Maxx Garrett are Miami's new directors of hitting, pitching and catching, respectively. Garrett was already with the organization last season, while the other two are newcomers. There has also been a baseball solutions group established under the baseball ops umbrella. It's being led by Ryan Plunkett. Player movement For a meager 0.2% of the Juan Soto contract, the Marlins filled out their 2024 international signing class by inking Cuban INF Luis Manuel León for $1.5 million. León might be a half-decade away from MLB readiness, but we should see some combination of OF Heriberto Hernández, RHP Robinson Pina, LHP John Rooney and UTIL Ronny Simon in Miami next season. Each of them have received minor league deals with invitations to spring training after spending some/all of the 2024 campaign at the Triple-A level. Prospects 1B Deyvison De Los Santos, INF Jared Serna and LHP Dax Fulton have been selected to the 40-man roster in advance of Wednesday's Rule 5 draft. RHP Luarbert Arias, who was due to become a minor league free agent, was selected as well. The Marlins also tendered contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. The following players are no longer with the organization after finishing the season finale on Miami's 40-man roster or major league injured list: Shaun Anderson, David Hensley, Anthony Maldonado, Darren McCaughan, John McMillon, Roddery Muñoz, Adam Oller, Michael Petersen and Sixto Sánchez. The Marlins hold the No. 3 pick in the Rule 5, but their 40-man is currently full. Teams cannot participate in the draft's major league phase unless they have at least one open spot in advance. Miscellaneous The Marlins and FanDuel Sports Network Florida have moved on from television play-by-play announcer Paul Severino whose contract had expired following the season. No word yet on the contenders to replace him. For the second consecutive year, Fish On First is providing in-person coverage of the Winter Meetings! Follow Alex Krutchik for updates from Dallas. View full article

The cast of characters in the Marlins organization has changed dramatically over the past year and gotten younger, but at least in one model's estimation, this series of transactions wasn't especially efficient. Several times throughout their history, the Miami Marlins have seized control of a seller's market, making numerous trades in quick succession that push back their competition timeline in pursuit of a long-term objective. It was not immediately clear what direction Peter Bendix would steer the franchise upon being hired in November 2023, but he began following that familiar script soon after the start of Miami's disastrous 2024 campaign. While it's way too soon to draw conclusions based on the results, now's an appropriate time to reflect on a hyperactive year and try to quantity what the Marlins parted with compared to what they received in return. Baseball Trade Values got a bad rap in the early 2020s when wishful fans constantly concocted and screenshotted proposals using the free-at-the-time trade simulator to make their favorite teams substantially better without accounting for the desires of the other team(s). But all things considered, BTV does a nice job of appraising major leaguers and minor leaguers with the same currency (surplus trade value, expressed in millions of dollars). The BTV model acknowledges the inexactitude of its player valuations. A lot of information about players isn't publicly available, so their site publishes a low, median and high estimate for each of them. The high value is typically 50% above the low. When a trade is reported, they'll tweet out the median estimates of the assets involved (examples here). The following list includes all of the substantial trades made by the Marlins during the past calendar year, meaning those that sent players in both directions as well as the Josh Bell partial salary dump. In a few cases (denoted by ???), traded minor leaguers were not previously in BTV's system because they were unranked by public prospect evaluators. Let's count them as $0.5 million apiece. 2024 Marlins trade activity summary -February 11 (MIA/MIN)—Marlins acquired Nick Gordon ($0.2M surplus trade value) for Steven Okert ($3.5M) -March 27 (MIA/NYY/TB)—Marlins acquired Shane Sasaki ($1.3M) and John Cruz ($1.9M) for Jon Berti ($4.7M) -April 6 (MIA/HOU)—Marlins acquired Valente Bellozo (???) and cash considerations for Jacob Amaya ($2.6M) -May 4 (MIA/SD)—Marlins acquired Dillon Head ($8.9M), Jakob Marsee ($5.7M), Nathan Martorella ($4.2M) and Woo-Suk Go ($0.7M) for Luis Arraez ($5.3M) and cash (approx. $7.9M) -July 25 (MIA/AZ)—Marlins acquired Deyvison De Los Santos ($8.0M) and Andrew Pintar ($2.5M) for A.J. Puk ($8.2M) -July 27 (MIA/NYY)—Marlins acquired Agustín Ramírez ($11.1M), Jared Serna ($5.6M) and Abrahan Ramírez (???) for Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($33.6M) -July 30 (MIA/BAL)—Marlins acquired Connor Norby ($10.1M) and Kyle Stowers ($0.1M) for Trevor Rogers ($18.0M) -July 30 (MIA/AZ)—Marlins acquired cash considerations for Josh Bell (-$4.7M) and cash (approx. $3.6M) -July 30 (MIA/SEA)—Marlins acquired Will Schomberg (???) for JT Chargois (-$0.4M) -July 30 (MIA/SD)—Marlins acquired Robby Snelling ($10.6M), Adam Mazur ($8.0M), Graham Pauley ($6.0M) and Jay Beshears ($1.1M) for Tanner Scott ($5.5M) and Bryan Hoeing ($0.1M) -July 30 (MIA/PIT)—Marlins acquired Garret Forrester ($1.1M) and Jun-Seok Shim ($0.8M) for Bryan De La Cruz ($3.2M) -July 30 (MIA/NYM)—Marlins acquired Wilfredo Lara ($0.5M) for Huascar Brazoban ($8.3M) -December 11 (MIA/TEX)—Marlins acquired Echedry Vargas ($7.3M), Max Acosta ($2.4M) and Brayan Mendoza ($0.7M) for Jake Burger ($11.0M) -December 22 (MIA/PHI)—Marlins acquired Starlyn Caba ($22.2M) and Emaarion Boyd ($0.9M) for Jesús Luzardo ($21.9M) and Paul McIntosh ($0.8M) -December 29 (MIA/CHC)—Marlins acquired Matt Mervis ($0.4M) and cash considerations for Vidal Bruján ($0.0M) Some of the Marlins' trades were "rejected" by the BTV model at the time—they got too much in return for Scott/Hoeing and not enough for Chisholm or Rogers. Overall, a total of $132.3 million in surplus value went out and $123.8 million came in. You could argue that the Marlins made up for that $8.5 million gap with waiver wire acquisitions. While many of those claims amounted to nothing, Otto Lopez and Declan Cronin currently hold a combined $15.1 million in surplus value after being designated for assignment less than a year ago. There's also Jonah Bride ($1.6M), who was acquired for cash considerations. The vast majority of MLB veterans traded away by the Fish were under club control beyond 2024. A handful of them have since been released anyway due to downturns in their production combined with rising salaries. At least they got something in return for Berti, Chargois, De La Cruz, etc. before it was too late. As he adds negotiating experience, perhaps Bendix will "fleece" his peers more frequently with the tone and timing of his moves, but ultimately, the key to sustainable winning is player development. Player values change based on projected performance in relation to contracts and years of control. If the Marlins provide their guys with the right coaching guidance and analytical feedback, they'll turn out better than the rest of the industry anticipated. View full article

Headed by a former Phillies executive, this new group of employees will be responsible for developing tools and applications for player evaluation and development. I know, Miami Marlins fans are fed up with hearing about new hires who don't play baseball themselves. Ryan Plunkett is not going to be bat in the middle of Miami's lineup or shore up their mediocre defense. Still, this seems significant: the Marlins announced on Thursday that the Harvard University graduate has been named vice president of their Baseball Solutions group. Plunkett was plucked from the Philadelphia Phillies where he most recently served as assistant director of foundational research. Prior to that, he was a quantitative analyst. "The Baseball Solutions group will be tasked with developing tools and applications for player evaluation and development to allow for a seamless connection between Research & Development and the entire Marlins organization," per the team's press release. In talking to local media about the new guy, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix added, "The implementation of all the data that we're getting is so important and Ryan is such a great fit for that...The intellectual curiosity that he showed, the leadership traits—even though he's pretty young in his career—and the culture fit that he is, he's going to enhance our culture." Via LinkedIn, here is how Plunkett summarized his work experience with the Phillies: Across Major League Baseball, every front office uses data to better understand what's happening on the field and to identity potential player adjustments and team strategies that can maximize their chances of winning. The separator has been (and will continue to be) which teams do the most effective job of interpreting the data and presenting it to players and coaches in a way that they actually act upon those findings to deliver better results. At least the Marlins are expanding their research and development efforts in pursuit of that. View full article

Once again, a non-contender has surprisingly won the bidding for a notable free agent starter, limiting the options for the teams who are most motivated to make rotation upgrades this offseason. More than a full month into MLB free agency, Thursday's reported agreement between Luis Severino and the Athletics registers as the biggest surprise we've seen. Entering his age-31 season, the right-hander is receiving a larger guarantee ($67 million) than any player in A's history despite the club coming off a 93-loss campaign and expected to spend the duration of that deal housed in a minor league ballpark (Sacramento's Sutter Health Park). Severino's signing was not an isolated incident, though. In late November, the similarly bad Los Angeles Angels inked left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to a similar contract (three years, $63 million). Across the board, it's been expensive to sign starting pitchers during this free agent cycle. When adding the wrinkle that a pair of desirable mid-rotation arms have found unexpected landing spots, the supply of starters available to contenders is dwindling. Six of the top 13 FA SPs as ranked by MLB Trade Rumors are off the market (Severino, Kikuchi, Blake Snell, Matthew Boyd, Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez), and only two of those six went to 2024 postseason teams. There are going to be teams who want a new quality starter, but either can't find what they're looking for in free agency or can't get their owner to pay what it takes for their primary target. That is where the Miami Marlins come in. If trade inquiries regarding their major league starting pitchers haven't been coming in already, they should soon. The organization is loaded with arms on the right side of 30 who have multiple years of club control remaining at well-below market value salaries. For several of Miami's potential trade chips, it's awkward timing. Sandy Alcantara missed all of last season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Jesús Luzardo (lumbar stress reaction) and Braxton Garrett (left forearm flexor strain, followed by a left elbow impingement) were sidelined from mid-June onward and underperformed even when they were on the mound. In each of those cases, the Marlins probably prefer to be patient and have them re-establish themselves in regular season action (and give the 2025 team some hope of actually winning games). That is, unless a desperate suitor is willing to overlook their health setbacks and bolster their trade offers to reflect that. Ryan Weathers returned from his own lengthy IL stint in time to finish September with a flourish. However, he isn't even arbitration-eligible yet. Neither is Eury Pérez or Max Meyer, both of whom also hurt their throwing arms earlier this year. There is no urgency to include them in trades right now. Although Valente Bellozo far exceeded expectations as a rookie (124 ERA+ in 13 GS), there are serious questions about the sustainability of his pitching style given his limited velocity and dependency on fly balls. It's hard to imagine any good team counting on him to be in their starting rotation based on what he's done to this point. The most logical trade candidate of the bunch, in my opinion, is Edward Cabrera. The homegrown right-hander who's been very difficult to hit (career .213 BAA) has four years of club control still to go, and during the second half of 2024, he showed a newfound willingness to challenge opponents in the strike zone. The Marlins front office reportedly included Cabrera in trade talks last offseason. He's about to go through the arbitration process for the first time. Regardless of which starter(s) ultimately get discussed, expect the Marlins to prioritize years of control when asking for players in return. If they are going to continue to thin out a rotation that lacked sufficient depth last season, it's because they have an opportunity to acquire young talent that better aligns with their competitive window. View full article

Today's news roundup also includes a summary of last weekend's FanFest event. The Marlins held their annual FanFest at loanDepot park on Saturday. A team spokesperson claims that over 18,000 people attended, but a source within the organization tells Fish On First only 7,400 tickets were scanned. Regardless of what the real turnout was, our on-site reporting suggests that things went smoothly. The "special alumni announcement" that had been teased in advance was the creation of the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. The inaugural class consists of Jeff Conine, Jim Leyland, Jack McKeon and Luis Castillo; they will be inducted on March 30, July 6, August 3 and August 24, respectively. The Marlins also announced that their new City Connect uniforms will be used for the first time on May 3. Still no hints about what the unis will look like, though. Marlins Opening Day is 45 days away. Beginning next week, Offishial News returns to its usual Monday-Friday schedule and our email newsletter expands to seven days a week. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Check out my updated Opening Day roster projection. I removed Andrew Nardi following ominous comments from manager Clayton McCullough about him being "a little bit behind" schedule in his throwing progression. Also, contrary to popular opinion, I think Eric Wagaman will start off the season in Triple-A. Nearly half of the players I picked weren't even part of the Marlins organization last Opening Day. 🔷 The starting rotation is unsettled beyond the top three spots, as I noted. MLB.com's Christina De Nicola picked that as her No. 1 spring training story for the Fish. 🔷 The first pitchers and catchers workout will be held in Jupiter on Wednesday. That is also when the 60-day injured list opens. At some point this spring, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett will be placed on the 60-day, but only when there are corresponding moves made to fill their 40-man roster spots. This page will be regularly updated to show who's in big league camp. 🔷 Here's a clever/infuriating table from BrooksGate showing how this season's Marlins payroll is projected to be approximately the same as it was 20 years ago despite prices for various other things rising dramatically due to inflation. MLB revenues have also exploded during that period. (Using the Spotrac payroll estimate lowballs the team's actual spending by several million dollars, but the general point still applies.) 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Dodgers are re-signing Kiké Hernández to a one-year deal. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Today's news roundup also includes the annual Marlins ZiPS projections, and they're not very encouraging. On this day 17 years ago, the Marlins dealt Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for a handful of highly regarded prospects. It was "one of the worst trades in baseball history," Alex Krutchik explained in the Jeffrey Loria section of the new Fish On First ownership guide. Cabrera was inarguably baseball's best hitter during the early 2010s and he'd remain in Detroit through the end of his career in 2023, surpassing 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. FOF SuperSub Sean Millerick suspects that it's only a matter of time before current Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is traded as well in a financially motivated move. "They just can’t afford to get another blockbuster deal like this one wrong," he writes for the IBWAA Newsletter. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Speaking of trade possibilities, Reice Stark came up with five hypothetical deals that the Marlins should try to make this offseason, acquiring either prospects or former top prospects whose initial hype has worn off. 🔷 We have introduced a Marlins payroll blueprint tool. How would you assemble the 2025 roster on a $90 million budget? Submit your ideas. 🔷 Marlins director of amateur scouting Frankie Piliere spoke to MLB.com's Christina De Nicola about how significant it'd be for the team to win the 2025 MLB Draft lottery, which takes place on Tuesday during the Winter Meetings. The Marlins haven't held the No. 1 overall draft pick since 2000 when they took Adrián González. 🔷 Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs posted his ZiPS projections for the 2025 Marlins. Here's his summary: "Should the Marlins have better luck with the health of the pitching staff, they could get just enough from their offense to squeeze into the playoffs. For that to happen, though, they’d probably need other teams to underperform...As far as team goals go, it’s a rather depressing one, but until the Marlins get better at drafting and developing position players or decide to spend more in free agency, this is the organization’s best case scenario." 🔷 Leo Morgenstern of Just Baseball makes the case that the Marlins are the best fit for free agent center fielder Harrison Bader (and I agree with that). 🔷 Former Marlins CEO Derek Jeter was back in Miami on Tuesday to check out a collection of paintings celebrating iconic moments from his playing career. The collection remains open through Sunday. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, every team still alive in the bidding for top free agent Juan Soto has reportedly bid at least $600 million. Soto's signing decision is expected within the next week. The Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million deal. The Royals struck a new deal with Diamond Sports Group for local television rights. That leaves seven MLB teams who are still being carried by FanDuel Sports Network affiliates (including the Marlins). Marlins podcast episodes View full article

In an interview with Foul Territory, new Marlins manager Clayton McCullough explains what lessons learned from his Dodgers days can be implemented in Miami and how to overcome the disadvantage of being a small-market team. View full video

This involves trading for Christian Vázquez and Ronny Mauricio and signing Spencer Turnbull and Matt Moore to one-year free agent deals, as explained last month in my offseason blueprint article C: Agustin Ramirez ($0.80M) 1B: Jake Burger ($0.80M) 2B: Otto Lopez ($0.80M) 3B: Connor Norby ($0.80M) SS: Xavier Edwards ($0.80M) LF: Jesus Sanchez ($3.20M) CF: Dane Myers ($0.80M) RF: Griffin Conine ($0.80M) DH: Jonah Bride ($0.80M) 4th OF: Kyle Stowers ($0.80M) 5th OF: Derek Hill ($0.80M) Utility: Ronny Mauricio ($0.80M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Sandy Alcantara ($17.30M) SP2: Jesus Luzardo ($6.00M) SP3: Ryan Weathers ($0.80M) SP4: Braxton Garrett ($1.80M) SP5: Spencer Turnbull ($5.00M) RP: Calvin Faucher ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Nardi ($0.80M) RP: Jesus Tinoco ($0.80M) RP: Anthony Bender ($1.40M) RP: Declan Cronin ($0.80M) RP: Matt Moore ($2.50M) RP: Lake Bachar ($0.80M) RP: Xzavion Curry ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 31.33% under budget

Generally speaking, the Marlins struggled on defense in 2024, but spectacular moments like these still saved runs and turned into timeless highlights. View full video

Today's news roundup also includes an introduction to our Marlins ownership guide. On Sunday in winter ball competition, OF Dane Myers stole a base off the bench, RF Troy Johnston went 1-for-5 with 1 RBI and INF Johnny Olmstead went 0-for-3 with a walk. Johnston, who is typically a first baseman, has now played four straight games in the corner outfield spots for Toros del Este. More Marlins news and content below: 🔷 Introducing our complete Marlins ownership guide! Alex Carver, Alex Krutchik and I collaborated to summarize the tenures of Wayne Huizenga, John Henry, Jeffrey Loria and Bruce Sherman, including their accomplishments, shortcomings and controversies as stewards of the franchise. 🔷 Long-awaited renovations to Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium are underway. In time for the start of spring training, a new drainage system is being installed and the bullpen mounds are being moved from foul territory to beyond the outfield walls. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Japan's Munetaka Murakami announced that he will be coming to Major League Baseball after the 2025 season. The star slugger has averaged 37 home runs over the last six seasons, though he also perennially ranks among the Nippon Professional Baseball leaders in strikeouts. He turns 25 years old in February. The Mets have signed RHP Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal with an opt-out after the first year, while the Cubs and LHP Matthew Boyd have agreed on a two-year, $29 million deal. 🔷 Every offseason, free agency shows us how desperate teams are for competent starting pitching. The contracts that Montas and Boyd got are robust for prototypical No. 4 starters who've had significant injury issues in the recent past. Their 2025 salaries will be comparable to Sandy Alcantara's and several times higher than anybody else on the Marlins pitching staff. Although there is no urgency to shop arms this offseason (like the arbitration-eligible Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett), their relative youth and affordability would make them attractive to any team. View full article

The long overdue Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium renovations have begun. When the dust settles, Marlins Grapefruit League games should be comfortable for both players and fans. Spring training baseball returns to Jupiter in less than three months. The 2025 edition will look different than it has over the past two-plus decades as Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium modernizes. Key components of the renovation project that the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals have spent years pushing for began this week, Mike Diamond of the Palm Beach Post reports. All of the old grass at Roger Dean has been excavated and workers began laying sod on Monday as a new drainage system is being installed. Rain only falls sporadically throughout February and March, but this will come in handy during the regular season when the Jupiter Hammerheads and Palm Beach Cardinals combine to use the facility six days a week. Hopefully, more efficient drainage will cut down on the number of games that get postponed due to "wet grounds." No more bullpens along the foul lines—those are being relocated beyond the outfield walls. Those are the first wave of renovations. The majority of the work will be done after spring training, according to the Marlins. The teams' clubhouses will still be in separate buildings from the ballpark itself, but Roger Dean general manager Mike Bauer says "we will add on both sides to increase the square footage so we can take care of the deficiencies we had. There’ll be more space for a larger weight room, more space for physical training and hydrotherapy.“ In terms of fan-friendly changes, the stadium is setting up complimentary Wi-Fi. The gift shop will be expanded to three times its original size. There are new socialization spaces coming to left field and center field. The Fish On First staff will be pleased to hear about the upcoming pressbox improvements. The Marlins and Cardinals are receiving some financial assistance from both the state of Florida and Palm Beach County on the $108 million project. Marlins spring training tickets went on sale earlier this month. Dynamic pricing applies to single-game tickets, with reserved box seats going for $42, $49 or $56 a seat depending on the popularity of the matchup (yes, I see the irony in median prices for Marlins exhibition games being significantly higher than regular season games at loanDepot park). View full article

Well, so much for that 😂 Still will be fun to follow the rest of the way. Playoffs have essentially begun—might need to win 5 straight just to make it in.

It's been a long time since the Marlins have made any long-term commitments. It is only natural for Miami Marlins fans to be envious. Since Opening Day, they've seen the Arizona Diamondbacks (Ketel Marte and Brandon Pfaadt), Boston Red Sox (Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell) and San Diego Padres (Jackson Merrill) announce contract extensions that will retain key players into the 2030s, not to mention the handful of similar deals that were completed across the league during spring training. Meanwhile in Miami, the only constant is change. In early 2024, Luis Arraez and Jesús Luzardo were both transparent about their desire to stay with the club for many years—the Marlins traded them later that year. Pablo López signed an extension shortly after being dealt to the Minnesota Twins in 2023, as did Miguel Rojas upon joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. Peter Bendix has not extended any player since being hired as president of baseball operations. Neither did Kim Ng during the second half of her tenure as general manager. The most recent Marlin to agree to an extension was reliever Richard Bleier—that forgettable two-year, $6 million pact was announced more than three years ago (March 22, 2022). In the meantime, 27 of the 30 MLB teams have extended at least one of their own guys, according to MLB Trade Rumors. The only exceptions to that have been the Marlins, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees. (Although it was a free agent deal rather than an extension, the Yankees kept the face of their franchise, Aaron Judge, and subsequently named him team captain.) Why are extensions important? Well, prior to Bleier, the Marlins locked up Sandy Alcantara in November 2021. That shrewd five-year, $56 million deal is the only reason he's still in Miami right now. Had they waited until after his subsequent Cy Young award-winning season to negotiate, Alcantara would have had the leverage to ask for more guaranteed money than the franchise was comfortable committing to an individual pitcher. Without an extension, he was on track to reach free agency following the 2024 season; instead, he's under club control through 2027. 1j25vg.mp4 Low-revenue teams like the Marlins should be utilizing extensions even more than average teams because they will inevitably be priced out of premium free agents. They need to roll the dice on young players before their potential is fully realized in order to eventually contend on a tight budget (their payroll is the lowest in the majors entering 2025). The most logical extension candidates for any club are up-the-middle position players. Catcher Joe Mack had a breakout season at Double-A in 2024, excelling both offensively and defensively against much older competition. If this year mirrors that one, Mack deserves consideration for a pre-debut extension entering 2026. In the meantime, shortstop Xavier Edwards and second baseman Otto Lopez are top of mind. Both have valuable skill sets, but ones that typically don't pay well in arbitration—Edwards has never and will never hit for power, while Lopez is a standout defender. They are two seasons away from even becoming arb-eligible, so the Marlins wouldn't have to break the bank. Current Triple-A Jacksonville catcher Agustín Ramírez is a fascinating case. He will inevitably move off of the position, especially if Mack pans out, but his potential with the bat is immense. Poised to debut by the midpoint of 2025, perhaps a positive first impression compels the the front office to sign him next winter. No player in the Marlins organization has a higher ceiling than Eury Pérez. I'm very skeptical about him being a realistic extension candidate because of his combination of youth and pure stuff. Due to hit free agency as a 26-year-old, he is practically assured of getting a massive contract even if he pitches sparingly between now and then. The Marlins should make an attempt, nonetheless. View full article