Time for Tanner Scott to cash in on his recent excellence

The San Diego Padres should have no regrets about the six-player deal they struck with the Miami Marlins on July 30. To fortify their bullpen down the stretch, they acquired Bryan Hoeing and Tanner Scott in exchange for prospects, and the results were outstanding. Hoeing and Scott combined for a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings of work, with the pair stranding 25 of the 26 baserunners they inherited. San Diego's post-trade deadline record of 36-18 was the best in Major League Baseball, propelling them to the NL's top Wild Card spot.

The Padres seemingly had enough arms to close out the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. Unfortunately, their offense was halted by a once-in-a-generation scoreless streak. Regarded by many as the most well-rounded roster entering October, they were eliminated from the postseason on Friday.

Not even arbitration-eligible yet, Hoeing should be an impactful, versatile and cost-efficient piece of the Padres' 2025 pitching staff. Bringing back Scott won't be cheap, however. The 30-year-old All-Star is entering free agency for the first time in his career and certain to draw widespread interest.

Over the last two seasons, Scott has been MLB's most valuable reliever. He leads all of his peers in fWAR (4.5), bWAR (7.6) and win probability added (8.17) since the start of 2023. He has even tacked on 5 ⅓ innings of scoreless postseason performance. The bearded lefty offers an awesome combination of swing-and-miss stuff, suppression of hard contact and durability.

This isn't to say that Scott is flawless. Control has been an issue. With the exception of 2023, in all of his other qualified seasons, he has ranked in the bottom 10th percentile of MLB pitchers in walk rate, including 7th percentile in 2024 with a 12.2 BB%.

You could poke holes in Scott's résumé from a consistency and trustworthiness standpoint. He has typically been a slow starter in March/April. Also, he has never spent a full season as his team's closer, though he very likely would have this year if not for the Marlins' decision to trade him.

Scott earned a salary of only $5.7M in 2024. That should skyrocket next season and for several seasons beyond that.

He isn't quite in the same tier as Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader, who recently received the largest reliever contracts in baseball history, guaranteeing $102M and $95M, respectively. Scott's teammate, Robert Suárez, set the market for non-closing RPs when he re-upped with San Diego for $46M after the 2022 season. All of these deals spanned five years. I also find the $11M average annual value of Robert Stephenson's contract last winter to be a relevant data point, establishing a floor for Scott.

My prediction: Scott will ultimately sign a five-year, $57.5M deal ($11.5M AAV). As much as the Marlins valued his contributions, don't expect them to make a formal offer.