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  • 'Bloodbath' of Marlins personnel changes; 2025 arbitration projections


    Ely Sussman

    Offishial News for 10/2/24

    Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

    Marlins Video

    On Tuesday, Peter Bendix spent 12 minutes taking questions from the media at loanDepot park...and not providing much transparency with his answers. Asked repeatedly about Skip Schumaker leaving the Miami Marlins, he declined to elaborate on why the relationship ended and what efforts the team made to retain him ("I'm going to keep the private conversations that we had private").

    Bendix also wouldn't comment on the future of the coaches who had been on Schumaker's coaching staff in 2024. Mere hours after the press conference, our own Isaac Azout learned that all of them are being let go amidst a "bloodbath" of baseball operations personnel changes. Many of those who lost their jobs had expiring contracts anyway and likely saw the writing on the wall, but it's nonetheless a bold step.

    Here's more Marlins news and content:

    🔷 Previously outrighted to the minors by the Marlins, José Devers, Kent Emanuel, Cristian Pache and Ali Sánchez exercised their right to elect free agency. Among them, Sánchez had the longest stay on Miami's active roster in 2024, serving as backup catcher from late June through August. MLB Trade Rumors has a roundup of 30 other MiLB players from other organizations who also hit the open market on Tuesday.

    🔷 Speaking of MLBTR, Matt Swartz shared his annual arbitration salary projections. Barring veteran offseason additions, the Marlins will have a smaller arbitration class than usual in 2025, consisting of Jesús Luzardo (projected $6.0M), Jesús Sánchez ($3.2M), Edward Cabrera ($2.2M), Braxton Garrett ($1.8M), Nick Fortes ($1.6M) and Anthony Bender ($1.4M).

    🔷 No matter what, a former Marlin will receive a World Series ring this year. I listed 35 people with Fish ties whose current teams are participating in the MLB postseason.

    🔷 Hector Rodriguez discusses which players stood out most during last month's Prep Baseball All-American Game in Miami.

    🔷 Peter Pratt concluded his tenure as host of Locked On Marlins (final episodes embedded below). Peter's enthusiasm for the team is unmatched and I know his podcast was appreciated by many of you. Even though he's ending this chapter of his content creation career, I look forward to talking Fish with him frequently in the future.

    🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Tigers, Royals, Mets and Padres won the opening games of their respective Wild Card Series matchups. Corbin Burnes and Michael King had terrific starts, though Burnes' came in a losing effort. The Giants hired recently retired franchise legend Buster Posey as their new president of baseball operations. The Cubs let go of first base coach Mike Napoli, hitting coach Jim Adduci and bullpen coach Darren Holmes; and the Pirates parted ways with hitting coach Andy Haines and bullpen coach Justin Meccage.

    🔷 Today's postseason schedule:

    • Tigers vs. Astros Game 2 at 2:32 p.m. ET (Tigers lead 1-0)
    • Royals vs. Orioles Game 2 at 4:38 p.m. ET (Royals lead 1-0)
    • Mets vs. Brewers Game 2 at 7:38 p.m. ET (Mets lead 1-0)
    • Braves vs. Padres Game 2 at 8:38 p.m. ET (Padres lead 1-0)

     


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    Triple-A Jacksonville's Josh White tossed three more hitless innings on Wednesday and lowered his ERA to 1.20. He has recorded at least one strikeout in each of his nine relief appearances this season.

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    Then let's roughly break down the Payroll for 2025:

    17M for Sandy
    17M for Avi García
    Around 18M on the arbitration class (6 players) mentioned in this article
    The rest of the active roster (18 players) is around 16M
    The rest of the 40-man (14 players) say is 7M (exaggerating)

    That yields a total of 75M. Say I am forgetting something and is 80M.

    For reference, the teams with the lowest projected payrolls this season were OAK (63M), PIT (85M), and TB (89M). The Fish is the next-lowest with a 98M payroll in 2024.

    Will this team spend 20M on free agents this season? Maybe 10M getting some bullpen arms? Perhaps only 5M? How about nothing?

    16 hours ago, Hans Herrera said:

    Then let's roughly break down the Payroll for 2025:

    17M for Sandy
    17M for Avi García
    Around 18M on the arbitration class (6 players) mentioned in this article
    The rest of the active roster (18 players) is around 16M
    The rest of the 40-man (14 players) say is 7M (exaggerating)

    That yields a total of 75M. Say I am forgetting something and is 80M.

    For reference, the teams with the lowest projected payrolls this season were OAK (63M), PIT (85M), and TB (89M). The Fish is the next-lowest with a 98M payroll in 2024.

    Will this team spend 20M on free agents this season? Maybe 10M getting some bullpen arms? Perhaps only 5M? How about nothing?

    They're not going to spend much. Maybe about 5m, but no more than that. We had an awful season, and even with Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez returning, it isn't going to get any better. They may get a vet who's on the cusp of retirement, but that's honestly about it

    Also, among the arbitration class, I can see them letting go of Nick Fortes and Edward Cabrera. Nick Fortes provided negative value and is only going up in arb money, while Edward Cabrera had endless opportunities to prove himself and failed each time, and he's also going up in arb years. They might also cut Jesus Sanchez. $3.2m for nothing more than a barely passable platoon bat is far too expensive.

    2 hours ago, One Regend said:

    They're not going to spend much. Maybe about 5m, but no more than that. We had an awful season, and even with Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez returning, it isn't going to get any better. They may get a vet who's on the cusp of retirement, but that's honestly about it

    Also, among the arbitration class, I can see them letting go of Nick Fortes and Edward Cabrera. Nick Fortes provided negative value and is only going up in arb money, while Edward Cabrera had endless opportunities to prove himself and failed each time, and he's also going up in arb years. They might also cut Jesus Sanchez. $3.2m for nothing more than a barely passable platoon bat is far too expensive.

    Can it get any worse, though? As bad as this team looked, it is still way far from being the White Sox. The performance of this team depends way too much on their pitching staff, and now with Mel gone, it will be a bit more challenging to perform as expected from the group.

    About the arbitration class: Fortes still has strong defensive metrics: Is top 10 in Blocks above average, middle of the pack in the rest of the defensive metrics, durable, young, and still very cheap. He is definitely worth 1,6M, but maybe not for a starting catcher. There is not a single FA Catcher this offseason for the Marlins to target, so they will most probably stick with him and once again, hope for the best.

    I'm biased about Eddy Cabrera. I think he has tremendous stuff, but his mental game is still under development. With all the injuries this team had this season, I highly doubt they will let go of the pitcher who led this team in GS, IP, and SO (and also Losses and BBs), who BTW had a solid second half when he came back from the injury (July 7th- End of season): 15 GS, 75 IP, 4.32 ERA. Of those 15 starts, 3 were really ugly: 20 ER in 9.2 IP combined; the other 12 starts?: 65.1 IP with 2.20 ERA. Inconsistent? Yes, but I'd keep him in a heartbeat. 
    His future might be in the bullpen, but even so, he should be a very valuable asset. I do think there is a fair chance he can be traded this winter IF the return is appealing.

    Now Jeezy: He is a platoon bat but on the more frequent side. He is also a 97 OPS+ / 99 wRC+ player, which means pretty much an average player. The rest of the OFs on the roster are Stowers, Conine, Myers, Hill, and Mesa Jr... READ: A group of unproven hitters (1083 PA combined, Hill accounting for almost half of them) who are the same age or older than Jesús (except for Mesa Jr.) with the same or less upside. Getting rid of him should not be the way to go UNLESS a trade comes at your door and you cannot say no.

    5 hours ago, One Regend said:

    They're not going to spend much. Maybe about 5m, but no more than that. We had an awful season, and even with Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez returning, it isn't going to get any better. They may get a vet who's on the cusp of retirement, but that's honestly about it

    Also, among the arbitration class, I can see them letting go of Nick Fortes and Edward Cabrera. Nick Fortes provided negative value and is only going up in arb money, while Edward Cabrera had endless opportunities to prove himself and failed each time, and he's also going up in arb years. They might also cut Jesus Sanchez. $3.2m for nothing more than a barely passable platoon bat is far too expensive.

    Doesn't seem to be any apparent reason to move on from Fortes. If we figure little spending, they don't have two catchers ready or even with MLB experience to replace Fortes. Who knows, though? Sánchez is cheap vis-à-vis production. Power is in short supply. The combination likely means he stays. Cabrera, though, I can see a move. Cheers.



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