Ely Sussman

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's road series against the New York Mets. View full article

A Marlins roster that's been inflicted by constant injuries and trades this season is on track to make franchise history in an obscure way. QUEENS, NY—The Miami Marlins have not had many wins to spread around this season. The 46 that they do have are being dispersed in a highly unconventional way. Such is life when you're missing your ace and lacking any semblance of roster continuity, for that matter. Facing the New York Mets on Sunday, Valente Bellozo was attempting a feat that none of his teammates had done this season: earning a win in three consecutive starts. Bellozo was coming off back-to-back scoreless games against the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies. With one out to go in the bottom of the fifth inning, he was giving the Mets the same treatment, clinging to a 1-0 lead. But then Francisco Lindor stepped into the batter's box for the third time. Bellozo got the desired result when Lindor chased a 1-0 changeup slightly below the strike zone. However, the Mets shortstop got underneath the ball enough to float it into left field for a game-tying RBI single. "It was a really nasty pitch," Bellozo said postgame. "He's an All-Star. He's a really good hitter. He got it." To lead off the sixth inning, Brandon Nimmo also did his damage against a changeup, crushing a middle-middle pitch into the upper deck to give the Mets a 2-1 lead. Bellozo took full responsibility for that mistake. "We're in the big leagues: if you miss, you're gonna pay." dzcwZWxfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1Z3RlFVRklGVUZZQVcxWUtCd0FBQVFaUkFBQUVWVlVBQlZSV1VWWURDUUZjVmdFSA==.mp4 On a day when he admittedly did not have his best stuff and got bailed out by his defense on several deep fly balls, Bellozo's final line (5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 83 pitches/50 strikes) still would've been enough to register a W under most circumstances. Unfortunately, this iteration of the Marlins lineup does not give pitchers much margin for error. The rookie right-hander was on the hook for the loss when he exited. Despite their deficits in talent and experience, give the second-half Marlins credit for their resiliency. They haven't been swept in a series since before the All-Star break and manufactured just enough offense to salvage their series finale in New York. Former Fish reliever Huascar Brazoban plated Miami's second run in the seventh inning with a wild pitch. Batting with two on and two out in the eighth, Derek Hill singled home Jonah Bride to retake the lead. oblw4c.mp4 Four Marlins relievers combined for eight strikeouts across 3 ⅔ scoreless innings to seal the victory. Andrew Nardi's well-timed appearance—completing the seventh inning and starting off the eighth—dropped the decision into his lap. Nardi became just the fifth pitcher in Marlins history and the first since Clay Hensley in 2010 to record a win on his birthday. The other 29 MLB teams have each had pitchers record at least seven wins in their uniforms this season (yes, even the Chicago White Sox). Bellozo was, in my estimation, the only Marlins pitcher with a realistic path to get there. His no-decision on Sunday further decreases those already-slim odds. Tanner Scott paces the Marlins with the six wins he accrued prior to being traded on July 30. Merely tying him will be challenging for any of his ex-teammates. Next up on the Marlins wins leaderboard are two other relievers, Anthony Bender and A.J. Puk with four apiece. Bender will be sidelined for the foreseeable future due to a right shoulder impingement. Like Scott, Puk was dealt to a contender prior to the deadline, so any additional victories he earns won't count toward his Miami total. Tied at three wins, we have Nardi, Declan Cronin, Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer. Nardi needs to be right in the middle of a few more Sunday-like scenarios. Cronin appears in high-leverage situations semi-regularly, but his effectiveness has dipped recently (hasn't completed a full inning of work in his last six outings). Luzardo's back injury will keep him out for the rest of the season. Barring setbacks, Weathers' finger injury will still delay his return until mid/late September. Although Meyer is a fixture in the starting rotation, he's been both mediocre and inefficient since coming up from Triple-A last month, averaging 18.6 pitches per inning. There have been and likely will continue to be starts where he does not pitch deep enough to be eligible for the W. Between trades, injuries and guys simply being unable to get the job done, the Marlins have constantly cycled through arms in 2024. Their total of 35 different pitchers used is only two shy of the single-season franchise record set in 2020. Adam Oller will reportedly be No. 36 when he starts Monday's contest. In the midst of a minor league rehab assignment, Josh Simpson could become No. 37 in September (if somebody else doesn't beat him to it). With the exception of the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, every Marlins team has had somebody reach eight pitcher wins. We are witnessing an unprecedented season from that standpoint. The Marlins begin their third-to-last homestand of the year on Monday night. The Arizona Diamondbacks—whose roster features old friends Josh Bell, A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro—are coming to Miami for a three-game set. The aforementioned Oller has a 2.88 ERA and 3.46 FIP in 25 innings at Triple-A since signing with the Marlins organization. His first pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's road series against the New York Mets. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the New York Mets. View full article

Offishial News for 8/16/24 On Thursday, the Marlins announced their 2025 spring training schedule. They'll face the Cardinals in their Grapefruit League opener on February 22. The second annual Spring Breakout exhibition featuring top prospects will be held at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 14. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 6-0. INF Deyvison De Los Santos has alarmingly struck out 18 times in his last eight games. Double-A Pensacola won, 3-1. INF Jared Serna's 13-game post-trade hitting streak was snapped. In 14 games since returning to first base full time (instead of taking occasional reps in left field), Nathan Martorella is hitting .388 with more walks than strikeouts. LHP Justin King recorded the save and very quietly has been dominant since joining Pensacola as a free agent (8.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 16 K). High-A Beloit lost, 4-1. LHP Thomas White (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 85 pitches/56 strikes) continues to be Mr. Consistency. The Sky Carp lineup was being perfect-gamed until the seventh inning. Low-A Jupiter lost, 2-1. LHP Keyner Benitez (5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 80 pitches/51 strikes) is the prospect I most regret leaving out of our latest FOF Top 30 list. DSL Marlins won, 12-3. It was a career day at the plate for OF Janero Miller, who went 4-for-5 with 5 RBI. DSL Miami lost, 2-0. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Alex Krutchik analyzes how Roddery Muñoz was tipping his pitches earlier this season and the ways he has improved since implementing a subtle change. 🔷 Xavier Edwards spent some of Thursday's off-day making a guest appearance on MLB Network's MLB Central studio show. My favorite part was his explanation of what "tells" he looks for from opposing pitchers in order to steal bases off of them. Since July 22, Edwards leads Major League Baseball with 16 steals and has not been caught once during that span. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Christian Yelich announced that he will undergo season-ending back surgery. Yelich had been one of the National League's best outfielders this year, but he'll wind up playing only 73 games. Making just the 13th start of his major league career, Weston Wilson hit for the cycle in a Phillies blowout victory. The Tigers completed a sweep of the Mariners thanks to Javier Báez's eighth-inning, game-winning home run. Bailey Ober threw his 10th consecutive quality start for the Twins. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Roddery Muñoz) begin a three-game set against the Mets (LHP Sean Manaea). The Marlins have a 29.0% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE today from 6:00-7:00 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. Special guests: Aram Leighton and Isaac Shapiro. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Memphis, 5:05 p.m. ET (doubleheader) Double-A Pensacola vs. Montgomery, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Quad Cities, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at Palm Beach, 6:30 p.m. ET DSL Marlins at DSL Rangers Red, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami vs. DSL Arizona Black, 11:00 a.m. ET View full article

During his August 15 in-studio appearance on MLB Central, Marlins shortstop Xavier Edwards explains what his keys are to stealing bases efficiently. View full video

Offishial News for 8/15/24 On Wednesday, Edward Cabrera (4.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 82 pitches/44 strikes) constantly fell behind in the count against Phillies batters and failed to hold a three-run lead. Kyle Schwarber's fourth-inning grand slam flipped the entire game around. Jonah Bride drove in four runs and extended his on-base streak to 15 games. His wRC+ is up to 136. Although Declan Cronin continues to prevent home runs, he's been yielding a lot of well-struck balls in play, including three earned runs on four hits in his latest outing. The Marlins lost, 9-5. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville won, 7-2. INF/OF Javier Sanoja and INF Tristan Gray had three-hit games while Nick Gordon played left field for the Jumbo Shrimp. Double-A Pensacola lost, 12-8. C Joe Mack hit his 20th and 21st homers of the season and the Blue Wahoos jumped out to an 8-0 lead. However, RHP Nigel Belgrave collapsed in the ninth inning, unable to retire any of the six batters he faced (they all came around to score). High-A Beloit lost, 4-3. RHP Noble Meyer is still having trouble putting batters away, averaging 4.5 pitches per plate appearance in this start. Low-A Jupiter lost, 3-1. Nice bounce-back performance from RHP Eliazar Dishmey (5.0, IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 77 pitches/48 strikes). DSL Miami lost, 10-1. RHP Raisei Nakamura allowed four hit by pitches in his two-inning relief appearance. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 As a matter of principle, Peter Bendix is willing to consider parting with any Marlins player for the right price. He's making a temporary exception for Sandy Alcantara, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. The club has ensured Alcantara that he will not be traded during the 2024-25 offseason as he finalizes his comeback from Tommy John surgery. The rehabbing ace is due $17.3M in 2025—the only player in Marlins history to earn a higher salary is Wei-Yin Chen. However, that is a reasonable price even for a low-revenue franchise considering the only other guaranteed money on the books for next season is Avisaíl García's contract. 🔷 To continue on this subject, the internal decision to stand pat with Sandy is not at all surprising. Signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027, there is no urgency to move the former NL Cy Young award winner. Beyond creating a PR nightmare for the Marlins, it would be an asinine baseball decision to be so hasty rather than allowing him to re-establish himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. They'll surely reassess the situation as the 2025 season wears on, though, largely depending on how competitive the team is around him. 🔷 Through 39 Marlins series, here's an updated look at the Prediction Time leaderboard. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 The Marlins are 15th in MLB Pipeline's updated farm system rankings, a few spots higher than they ranked on Baseball America and ESPN earlier this month. 🔷 On this day in 2004, the Marlins scored two runs in the ninth inning and two more in the 10th to rally past the Brewers. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Aaron Judge became the fastest player ever to reach 300 career homers (in terms of total games played). The NL West race is closer than it's been since late April, with both the Padres and Diamondbacks just 2.5 games back of the Dodgers. The Pirates lost their 10th consecutive game. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Memphis, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola vs. Montgomery, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Quad Cities, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at Palm Beach, 6:30 p.m. ET DSL Marlins vs. DSL Cardinals, 11:00 a.m. ET DSL Miami at DSL Phillies White, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the second and final game of Miami's road series against the Philadelphia Phillies. View full article

Thomas WhiteAgustín RamírezDeyvison De Los SantosConnor NorbyNoble MeyerCarter JohnsonRobby SnellingVictor Mesa Jr.Dillon HeadJared SernaAdam MazurAndrés ValorJavier SanojaPJ MorlandoJoe MackDax FultonLuis CovaJakob MarseeJuan De La CruzAndrew PintarAiden MayJacob MillerEliazar DishmeyKarson MilbrandtGraham PauleyKemp AldermanJun-Seok ShimNigel BelgraveGage MillerValente Bellozo The gap between Thomas White and every other prospect in the Marlins system is substantial. The prospects who just missed cracking my Top 30 are Josh Ekness, Keyner Benitez and Will Banfield.

Sooooo much has changed about this Miami Marlins farm system since we previously opened up community voting during spring training. Thanks to everybody who submitted their own rankings below! (here is the official Fish On First Top 30 for comparison's sake) Combined Top 30 List Thomas White Noble Meyer Agustín Ramírez Connor Norby Deyvison De Los Santos Robby Snelling Carter Johnson Jared Serna Dillon Head PJ Morlando Adam Mazur Victor Mesa Jr. Andrés Valor Javier Sanoja Joe Mack Luis Cova Dax Fulton Juan De La Cruz Karson Milbrandt Aiden May Graham Pauley Jakob Marsee Eliazar Dishmey Andrew Pintar Jacob Miller Jun-Seok Shim Kemp Alderman Grant Shepardson Keyner Benitez Jacob Berry We will do another round of voting after the 2024 season concludes.

Most of my staff seems to be aligned on Serna because of his upside. He generates far more power from his tiny frame than Sanoja does. Sacrificing some extra strikeouts for more doubles and home runs should ultimately be more valuable in the majors. Sanoja has an extremely high floor, but I still have trouble envisioning him as a true everyday starter.

I would feel more hopeful if Bellozo had a recent track record of missing barrels, something innate about his delivery that tricked hitters into swinging at the wrong spot. Although he had outstanding home run prevention in the low minors, that didn't translate to High-A or above. Opponents slugged plenty against him even when encountering him for the first time. At least when you throw strikes, you give yourself a chance to get quick outs. There's value in that and I won't take it for granted.

Offishial News for 8/14/24 On Tuesday, Valente Bellozo (7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 95 pitches/62 strikes) was brilliant. He made nearly three full trips through the Phillies lineup, inducing tons of lazy fly balls. His 2.28 ERA is the ninth-lowest ever through five career starts with the Marlins. Jake Burger and Xavier Edwards continue to produce/create runs on a daily basis. Jonah Bride reached base safely four times. Even Ali Sánchez doubled for his first extra-base hit of the season. The only bad news: Vidal Bruján suffered a right shoulder AC joint sprain while making a catch in right field. The Marlins won, 5-0. Down on the farm, things got pretty ugly for Marlins affiliates. Triple-A Jacksonville won, 4-3. OF Griffin Conine provided all of their offense with a grand slam. Double-A Pensacola lost, 18-5. LHP Patrick Monteverde (1.2 IP, 8 H, 10 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 58 pitches/35 strikes) could not get through the second inning and LHP Josh Simpson (1.1 IP, 0 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 31 pitches/14 strikes) struggled with control during his rehab appearance. High-A Beloit lost, 1-0. RHP Karson Milbrandt's quality start (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 78 pitches/52 strikes) went to waste. Low-A Jupiter won, 3-1. DSL Marlins lost, 10-8. They committed eight errors in only eight defensive innings! DSL Miami lost, 5-3. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Nick Gordon accepted his outright assignment to Jacksonville (electing free agency would've meant forfeiting the rest of his 2024 salary). He could see substantial playing time in left field down the stretch if only because the Jumbo Shrimp roster is thin on healthy alternatives. 🔷 MLB Pipeline finally updated their Marlins Top 30 prospects list to incorporate draft picks and 2024 player performances. Overall, lots of similarities to the Fish On First Top 30. Those who we disagree most on: OF Kemp Alderman (MLB #14 vs. FOF #30), INF Gage Miller (MLB #17 vs. FOF unranked), RHP Juan De La Cruz (MLB unranked vs. FOF #19), LHP Dax Fulton (MLB #27 vs. FOF #15) and OF Victor Mesa Jr. (MLB #18 vs. FOF #10). 🔷 Happy birthday to former Marlins Juan Pierre (47th b-day) and Josh Bell (32nd). A 2003 World Series champion, Pierre continues to hold the Marlins all-time record for most hits in a single season (221 in 2004). Terrific contact hitter, bunter and base-stealer who will always be remembered fondly by Fish fans. Bell is thriving as the Diamondbacks everyday first baseman, slashing .300/.352/.660 (175 wRC+) with four home runs in 12 games. The D-backs are 10-2 in those games. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the Pirates have rapidly faded from the NL Wild Card race. They've lost nine games in a row, including five to the Padres during that streak. Juan Soto had the first three-homer game of his career. He's gone deep 33 times this season, which ranks fifth in the majors. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (probable starter RHP Edward Cabrera) wrap up their brief series against the Phillies (RHP Tyler Phillips). Cabrera enters the matchup with a 12-inning scoreless streak. He also owns a 2.84 ERA in 19 career innings vs. the Phils. The Marlins have a 37.1% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Memphis, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola vs. Montgomery, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Quad Cities, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at Palm Beach, 6:30 p.m. ET DSL Miami at DSL Rangers Red, 11:00 a.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Through five career starts, Bellozo has been a fantastic addition to the Marlins rotation. Tuesday was his most effective outing yet as the Fish became the first team all season to shut out the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Valente Bellozo is in the Miami Marlins rotation by necessity. He did not "earn" his spot in a conventional way, making just 13 inconsistent appearances for Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville this season. Well, the soft-tossing right-hander who wasn't even supposed to be here is poised to stay here for the foreseeable future. Bellozo is performing far better against major league opponents than he did in the upper minors. On Tuesday, his seven innings pitched matched the longest outing of his professional career at any level, and he did it while holding the Philadelphia Phillies scoreless at Citizens Bank where they had been averaging 5.27 runs per game in 2024. He has allowed only seven total runs through five starts in The Show. "It's refreshing to see a young guy come up who's super excited to be here," manager Skip Schumaker said postgame. "He's taking his shot and making the most of it." 6b108458-2fa0f54a-b118dffd-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Bellozo lowered his ERA to 2.28, which is the ninth-best mark in Marlins history for a pitcher's first five starts with the club. However, the company he's keeping near the top of the list is a reminder of how misleading such a small sample size can be. Entering Tuesday, Bellozo ranked in the fifth percentile of MLB pitchers with an average fastball velocity of 90.1 mph. He averaged merely 89.5 mph vs. the Phillies. None of that pitch's other characteristics are remarkable, either. Bellozo's four-seam fastball has a 56 Stuff+ where 100 represents average—only Darren McCaughan (50) has a lower grade among Marlins pitchers this season. And yet, it is easily his most-used weapon. The four-seamer has been practically unhittable so far, with opponents going 5-for-38 (.132 BA) against it. As illustrated beautifully in this latest start, Bellozo likes to throw his four-seamer up in the zone to right-handed batters and off the outside corner. Being sharp with his location is helping him excel far beyond what the raw quality of his stuff would tell you to expect. The trajectory of the batted balls against Bellozo make him unique. So far in his young career, he's only inducing ground balls 22.8% of the time—that is barely half the MLB average! No qualified MLB starters are below 30% this season. The only precedent for a qualified starter with a GB% lower than Bellozo's during the entire Sports Info Solutions era (since 2002) is 2014 Chris Young. That's a very, very bad sign...right? All of the ERA estimators agree that Bellozo is due for heavy regression because eventually, more of these fly balls will fly over the wall for home runs. There are a lot of opportunities for hitters to do damage considering his pedestrian 21.1% strikeout rate. So far, he has allowed only two homers. To Bellozo's credit, there is something about him that is causing hitters to get too far underneath the ball. It's not only his fastball: the average launch angle is at least 21 degrees against four different pitches in his arsenal (his curveball being the exception). He ranks among baseball's leaders in infield fly ball percentage. There is seemingly some tangible skill involved with this as Bellozo also led the Southern League (min. 30 IP) with a 38.2 IFFB%. Even though it doesn't have the same sex appeal, a pop-up is almost always an unproductive out and therefore just as valuable as a strikeout. NU53MU1fVjBZQUhRPT1fQVZKV1hGMEZBMVlBV1ZRSEJBQUFVZ1FDQUZoVFVWTUFBVjBDVXdjTkJRVlRDQUJS.mp4 Referring again to the table above, Bellozo isn't the only overlooked, unorthodox pitcher to stymy big leaguers at the start of his career. The longer his success sustains, the more effort opponents will put into cracking the code. Nonetheless, the Marlins must be thrilled to see him go three full times through one of the world's most talented lineups and dominate. More takeaways from this game - Jake Burger did it again, homering for the fourth consecutive game and the 23rd time overall this season. - Vidal Bruján made a great running catch in foul territory to end the third inning, but suffered a right shoulder AC joint sprain, according to the Marlins. X-rays were negative, though I suspect that will require a stint on the injured list. Bruján was only playing on a part-time basis, so don't get your hopes up for a Connor Norby promotion (he'll wait until there is a clear path to everyday reps). It is much more likely that Forrest Wall or Tristan Gray comes up in a corresponding move, whether that be on Wednesday or on Friday following the next off-day. - Xavier Edwards created an insurance run in the top of the seventh. He singled, stole second base, then swiped third on the very next pitch, scoring on an errant throw by J.T. Realmuto. Edwards has been successful on 15 straight stolen base attempts over his last 21 games. - Jesús Sánchez established a new career high with his 15th home run of the season, a solo shot off of Carlos Estévez in the ninth inning. - Alec Bohm drew a walk in the fourth inning to extend his on-base streak to 30 games. Wednesday is the finale of this two-game series. Edward Cabrera, who has been on a Bellozo-like hot streak himself in recent weeks, gets the starting nod. Right-hander Tyler Phillips makes his sixth career start for the Phillies. It'll be his first time ever pitching against the Marlins. First pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Philadelphia Phillies. View full article