Ely Sussman

The Offishial Show—Episode #217 It's been nearly seven years since David Samson last stepped foot inside loanDepot park (or attended any MLB game, for that matter). In this exclusive interview, the former Miami Marlins president breaks down the direction that the franchise has taken without him and explains why he's finally returning to Miami for a visit. Find Fish Unfiltered on the Fish On First YouTube channel, our new-look Apple Podcasts channel and wherever else you get your pods. FOF's audio programming also includes Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream, Big Fish Small Pod and more. The Fish On First podcast is presented by MPT College Consulting! They pride themselves on helping clients navigate the college application process. This includes preparation for standardized testing, guidance through high school, assistance with essays and applications, and choosing the right college. Visit them today at mptcollegeconsulting.com to learn more about their services and schedule a free consultation. Follow David (@DavidPSamson), Ely (@RealEly), Isaac (@IsaacAzout) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the fourth and final game of Miami's road series against the Colorado Rockies. View full article

Burger will enter the offseason with two years and 127 days of MLB service time. Is that enough to qualify for arbitration? The answer to that question could have major ramifications on his future with the Marlins. It's been 13 months since the Miami Marlins acquired Jake Burger. Overall, he has been exactly as advertised. In 154 games as a member of the Chicago White Sox, Burger smashed 34 home runs with a 113 wRC+. In 163 games with the Fish entering Thursday, he's gone deep 34 more times with a 117 wRC+. There are some obvious deficiencies. Burger chases too many pitches outside the strike zone. He has shown himself to be a defensive liability at third base and not much better at first base. Despite being a faster sprinter than you'd suspect, he provides no value as a baserunner. All aspects of the game considered, he's more or less an average MLB regular. Meanwhile, the young pitcher they gave up in return, left-hander Jake Eder, has an ERA north of 7.00 with White Sox minor league affiliates. The trade has unquestionably been a big win for the Marlins. It's almost time for Burger to begin cashing in on his production. Injuries slowed down his ascent to the majors, so as a 28-year-old this season, he is earning only a smidge above the MLB minimum salary. Will Burger's first substantial raise come in 2025 or 2026? That depends on what the "Super Two" service time cut-off is this offseason. Based on recent precedent, he is a true borderline candidate to gain arbitration eligibility. A couple days of service could determine whether or not he collects a couple million dollars. As explained by MLB Trade Rumors, most players who aren’t on a guaranteed contract and have between three and six years of MLB service qualify for arbitration. Additionally, the top 22% of players in service time with between two and three years qualify early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list). Last offseason, the cut-off was two years and 118 days (often formatted as 2.118). The year before, it was 2.128. Throughout the last decade, it has ranged from 2.115 to 2.134. Burger will finish 2024 at 2.127. If Burger falls short, his salary will barely budge, remaining in the high six figures (the league minimum in 2025 will be $760k). However, if eligible for arbitration, he can negotiate for much more based on what comparable players earned through the arb process. I estimate that an arb-eligible Burger would make between $3M and $3.5M next season. The offensive production from his platform year of 2024 has been similar to what Hunter Renfroe did in 2019 and what Josh Naylor did in 2022. The following year, they were awarded salaries of $3.3M and $3.35M, respectively. When viewing the following tables, keep in mind that Burger still has a full month left to play this season to improve his numbers. I've taken that into account. Platform year comparison Career comparison from debut through platform year Neither is a perfect comp—Naylor had already gone through arbitration once before and Renfroe is a corner outfielder whereas Burger is a corner infielder. Feel free to share other potential comps in the comments. If Burger becomes a Super Two player, he will have four years of arbitration eligibility (2025-2028). Otherwise, he gets three bites at the apple before free agency (2026-2028). Age and money are always going to be key considerations when it comes to Marlins roster construction. Therefore, Burger entering Arb 1 this offseason could mean his Miami tenure is winding down. I'm not advocating for that to happen, but simply reading the tea leaves. Between red-hot rookie Connor Norby, second-half revelation Jonah Bride and power-hitting prospects Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustín Ramírez, the organization is brimming with cheap right-handed hitters who can play the same positions as Burger. Regardless of how Burger's situation plays out, the Marlins are poised to have ample payroll flexibility in 2025. Before factoring in their arbitration class, the only guaranteed contracts on the books belong to Sandy Alcantara ($17.3M), Avisaíl García ($12M) and Woo-Suk Go ($2.25M). There is no urgency to dump any of their players out of financial distress. Peter Bendix ought to be a lot more active and creative than he was during his first offseason in the POBO chair. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the third game of Miami's road series against the Colorado Rockies. View full article

Compete for 2025 Marlins game tickets, FOF merch and a free extension of your SuperSub subscription. It's back! I have reactivated the Fish On First SuperSubs fantasy football league. The 12-team league—hosted on Yahoo with head-to-head scoring and reserved for our loyal SuperSubs—will hold its online draft this Sunday at 5:00 p.m. ET. The following managers from the 2023 season have returned: @Sean Millerick (league champion) @loudmarlinsfan @PHeyser08 @Romeo Rodriguez @Ryan Schlesinger @TheYearOfTheFish Including them and myself, that leaves five vacancies in the league. If you enjoy fantasy football, are available for the live draft and have an active SuperSub subscription, click the link below to participate. FIRST-PLACE PRIZES: two tickets to any 2025 Miami Marlins regular season game (home or road, up to $75 value); guest appearance on FOF LIVE 2025 Opening Day livestream; FOF flexfit hat; six free months of SuperSub subscription SECOND-PLACE PRIZES: FOF flexfit hat; six free months of SuperSub subscription THIRD-PLACE PRIZE: FOF flexfit hat View full article

Offishial News for 8/28/24 On Tuesday, Roddery Muñoz (1.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 45 pitches/25 strikes) reached a new low, surrendering a leadoff home run to Charlie Blackmon and two others to Ezequiel Tovar. His ERA ballooned to 6.53. It frankly was not all that compelling to watch most of this game because a Marlins loss seemed inevitable. However, they miraculously overcame an early 6-0 deficit, thanks in large part to Griffin Conine. Making his first-ever MLB start, Conine cut down a Rockies run with his arm and recorded two extra-base hits, including a double that initiated Miami's five-run rally in the top of the ninth inning. Jesús Sánchez stroked the game-winning three-run blast off of Angel Chivilli. The Marlins won, 9-8. Down on the farm, Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 4-3. Jacob Berry made his Triple-A debut, starting in right field (which had gradually become his primary position before the promotion). At the plate, he went 1-for-3 with a walk. C Agustin Ramirez hit his third homer for the Jumbo Shrimp and 23rd of the season overall. Double-A Pensacola won, 1-0. LHP Patrick Monteverde (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K, 85 pitches/63 strikes) faced one batter over the minimum during his dominant outing. INF Jared Serna drove in the lone Pensacola run—he's still hitting .330 with his new organization. High-A Beloit won, 7-5. OF Kemp Alderman mashed his first High-A long ball, which was a game-winning, two-run shot. Low-A Jupiter lost, 4-2. OF Jacob Jenkins-Cowart homered for the first time as a pro and OF Eric Rataczak stole three bases. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 Connor Norby continues to excel atop the Marlins lineup. I was on the verge of penning an analysis about how he's too aggressive at the plate, and while that may still be the case, it has been tabled for the time being after he drew two walks on Tuesday. So far as a Marlin, Norby is slugging at an elite level while striking out just 20% of the time. Aside from helping out opponents by chasing a lot of inside pitches, there isn't much to nitpick about his first week-plus with the team. 🔷 The Athletics claimed Tristan Gray off waivers. His Marlins tenure ends with a .000 OPS in seven plate appearances. His departure from Jacksonville should lead to an increase in shortstop reps for Javier Sanoja. 🔷 Sandy Alcantara threw his 10th bullpen session coming off Tommy John surgery. As MLB.com's Christina De Nicola details, his rehab has gone according to plan, if not even better than planned. Alcantara's most recent session was 35 pitches and included the re-introduction of his slider to go along with his four-seam fastball, sinker and changeup. "Alcantara is likely to throw a few more side sessions before live batting practice," according to De Nicola. "He would then shut down until next year when he can return at 100 percent." 🔷 On this day 20 years ago, Juan Encarnación's late home run lifted the Marlins past the Rockies. 🔷 Peter Pratt announced that he will be stepping down as host of the Locked On Marlins podcast. Aside from the channel run by the Marlins themselves, I don't think any other Marlins-related podcast has produced more episodes over the last three years than Pratt's show did. I have enjoyed making several guest appearances during his hosting tenure and will be coming on once more in September during his farewell tour. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Jarren Duran became the first player in MLB history to reach 10 triples, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases and 40 doubles in a single season. Old friend Bryan De La Cruz homered for the first time as a Pirate. The Royals beat the Guardians again to tie them atop the AL Central standings. 🔷 Today's MLB game: Marlins (probable starter RHP Max Meyer) against the Rockies (LHP Kyle Freeland). The Marlins have a 51.4% chance to win, per FanGraphs. First pitch at 8:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Norfolk, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola vs. Mississippi, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Peoria, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at St. Lucie, 1:10 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the second game of Miami's road series against the Colorado Rockies. View full article

Offishial News for 8/27/24 On Monday, Edward Cabrera (5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 102 pitches/65 strikes) was okay, all things considered. I was intrigued to see him use his fastball 48.0% of the time, the third-highest fastball usage of his entire major league career. But as has been the case throughout this season, his effectiveness waned after facing an opposing lineup multiple times. Griffin Conine debuted as a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning and struck out swinging. He was the 62nd different player to appear in a game for the Marlins in 2024, setting a new franchise single-season record. John McMillon retired four of the five batters he faced in relief to keep the game within reach. The waiver claim has quietly impressed with a microscopic 16.7 HardHit% allowed. Barring a disastrous September, I think he'll stick on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. The Marlins lost, 3-2. Down on the farm, RHP Adam Mazur was named International League Pitcher of the Week and LHP Emmett Olson was named Midwest League Pitcher of the Week. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 The official IL designation for Xavier Edwards is mild back extensor soreness. He's expected to be reinstated sometime next week. Tristan Gray and Forrest Wall were both designated for assignment to clear 40-man roster spots. Gray has played all four infield positions for Triple-A Jacksonville this season while showing off his plus power, but his overall offensive package still isn't quite good enough (97 wRC+ with no baserunning value). Wall was mainly playing center field for the Jumbo Shrimp after being claimed by the Marlins last month. With Dane Myers progressing toward a return from his fractured ankle, the Marlins are willing to risk losing depth at that position. 🔷 Kevin Barral and I compiled a lot of details about the Marlins' upcoming international free agent class. Only SuperSubs can access the full article, so please consider signing up here to support what we do! 🔷 On Nothing Personal with David Samson, the ex-Marlins president—who's a close friend of Jeff Conine—promised to attend a game at loanDepot park before the end of the season to see Griffin play. Samson hasn't been to the ballpark since Derek Jeter fired him nearly seven years ago. 🔷 Sophia Monteleone spoke with Marlins fourth-round draft pick Fenwick Trimble about the work ethic that his late father instilled in him. Marlins IX had 16th-rounder Eric Rataczak as a podcast guest to share his chaotic odyssey, attending four different schools over the course of five years and learning he had Type 1 diabetes. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Danny Jansen become the first player in MLB history to play for two teams in the same game. Jansen was with the Blue Jays when the game began in June, but it was suspended due to rain and he was traded to the Red Sox by the time it resumed. The No. 2 overall pick from the 2023 MLB Draft, Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, went 0-for-3 with a walk in his major league debut. The Royals swept a doubleheader from the Guardians to move within a game of first place in the AL Central. 🔷 Today's MLB game: the Marlins (RHP Roddery Muñoz) and the Rockies (RHP Cal Quantrill) continue their series at Coors Field. The Marlins have a 44.1% chance to win, per FanGraphs. Muñoz has earned the W just once in his last 15 appearances (14 starts). First pitch at 8:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Today's MiLB schedule: Triple-A Jacksonville vs. Norfolk, 7:05 p.m. ET Double-A Pensacola vs. Mississippi, 7:05 p.m. ET High-A Beloit vs. Peoria, 7:35 p.m. ET Low-A Jupiter at St. Lucie, 6:10 p.m. ET Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the first game of Miami's road series against the Colorado Rockies. View full article

Offishial News for 8/26/24 On Sunday, Connor Norby hit a leadoff home run and later made Marlins history after doubling in the third inning. Adam Oller pitched legitimately well (5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 95 pitches/57 strikes), solidifying his spot in the starting rotation for at least another turn. Another mental lapse by Jesús Sánchez turned an intentional walk into an out, though the mistake ultimately did not prove to be consequential. The Marlins won, 7-2, snapping their five-game losing streak. Down on the farm, the Marlins announced the call-up of OF Griffin Conine. Nearly four years to the day that he was acquired via trade, he'll make his major league debut with the franchise that his dad, Jeff, played more than 1,000 games for. Griffin is slashing .268/.350/.475 this season with 19 home runs and a 113 wRC+. Triple-A Jacksonville lost, 10-0. Missing Conine from the lineup and with scheduled starter LHP Jonathan Bermúdez being added to Miami's bullpen on short notice, the Jumbo Shrimp got routed. Double-A Pensacola lost, 9-5. LHP Chandler Jozwiak allowed a walk-off grand slam. The Blue Wahoos have lost six games in a row. High-A Beloit lost, 3-2. RHP Ike Buxton (5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 85 pitches/46 strikes) enjoyed arguably his best start of the season. Low-A Jupiter won, 6-0. INF Carter Johnson and OF Fenwick Trimble each went 3-for-4 at the plate. RHP Walin Castillo shoved (5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 76 pitches/46 strikes). The DSL Marlins postseason run came to an end on Saturday. Here's more Marlins news and content: 🔷 In a corresponding move to get Conine on the active roster, Xavier Edwards (lower back discomfort) will be placed on the 10-day injured list, according to Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. Simply put, that sucks. In 47 MLB games this season, Edwards is slashing .349/.428/.436 (144 wRC+) with 22 stolen bases while serving as Miami's shortstop. Assuming the IL stint is retroactive to Saturday, he will be eligible for reinstatement at the start of the next homestand. Vidal Bruján figures to get most of the SS reps in Edwards' place. 🔷 Through 42 Marlins series, here's an updated look at the Prediction Time leaderboard. Make series predictions with us all season long when you become a Fish On First SuperSub. 🔷 MLB.com's Ben Weinrib wrote about INF Deyvison De Los Santos and his transition to a new organization. Director of player development Rachel Balkovec spoke about De Los Santos occasionally playing third base despite the skepticism that he can succeed there: “So why not add something to someone's repertoire and let them prove us wrong? It's kind of the approach that I think we'll be taking more often.” 🔷 The Marlins are accepting applications for 24 different positions as of Monday morning across their analytics, creative services, medical & clubhouse, sales, scouting and security departments. 🔷 MLB is giving away a pair of Xavier Edwards game-used batting gloves. Follow the instructions here to be entered to win. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Lake Mary Little League became the first Florida team to ever win the Little League World Series. Aaron Judge hit his 50th and 51st home runs of the season. With more than a month still to play, the White Sox lost their 100th game. Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras suffered a right middle finger fracture that threatens the rest of his season. In his ninth major league season, Contreras has posted a career-best 141 wRC+. 🔷 Today's MLB game: it's the start of a four-game set between the National League's two weakest teams, the Marlins (probable starter RHP Edward Cabrera) and the Rockies. First pitch at 8:40 p.m. ET. 🔷 Join us for a new episode of Fish On First LIVE today from 7:30-8:30 p.m. ET on YouTube/Twitter/Facebook. FOF LIVE is presented by Berger & Hicks. If you’ve been injured as a result of somebody else’s negligence, give them a call at (305) 670-7050. Marlins podcast episodes View full article

Ely Sussman reacts to the breaking news that Miami Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine has been called up to make his major league debut for the same franchise that his dad, Jeff Conine, won two World Series titles with. It was later reported that Xavier Edwards will be placed on the injured list in a corresponding roster move. View full video

The 18-year-old Marlins infielder took a massive leap offensively in his second Dominican Summer League season, though some of that production was seemingly outside of his control. The Miami Marlins spread their money around among international amateur free agents entering the 2023 signing period. No player's signing bonus exceeded $1M, but more than a dozen received six figures. Two of those investments have aged especially well: Venezuelan outfielder Andrés Valor ($520k), who is a consensus Top 30 prospect in this organization, and Dominican left-hander Keyner Benitez ($225k), who soon will be. Both Valor and Benitez have already come over to the U.S. and excelled against older competition. Then there's the curious case of $400k man Joseph Tailor. Tailor made his professional debut with DSL Miami in 2023 and stumbled out of the starting gate. Splitting time between second base and third base, he committed six errors in his first five games. It took nearly two months for his batting average to rise above the Mendoza Line. The native of San Pedro de Macoris in the DR made significant improvements late in the summer, particularly in terms of trimming of his strikeout rate, but his overall numbers still underwhelmed: .237/.312/.309 slash line (72 wRC+) in 42 games. Unsurprisingly, the Marlins determined that he needed to spend another year at their Dominican academy. Repeating the DSL as an 18-year-old, Tailor's consistency was astounding. His 153 wRC+ this season led all qualified hitters in the Marlins organization, regardless of level. He was selected to represent the Fish at the Dominican Summer League All-Star Game and performed even better during the post-All-Star portion of the season. Tailor's 23 extra-base hits ranked seventh in the DSL—keep in mind, this is a league with 51 different teams! Tailor's contributions helped DSL Marlins clinch the DSL East division title. He served as the leadoff hitter during their brief playoff run which ended on Saturday. A source within Marlins player development tells Fish On First that Tailor's swing "got better in each and every month last year and has been well-rounded consistent this year. He’s an aggressive hitter by nature as that will lead to some chase and some swing-and-miss on fastballs, which is our biggest concern, but even then he’s one of the hitters that has some strong potential." The samples are microscopic, but the left-handed-hitting Tailor fared poorly against lefties in 2023 (.120/.185/.120 slash line in 27 PA), then crushed them in 2024 (.289/.434/.546 in 29 PA). Also, Tailor's defense "improved immensely" from year to year, the source added. His most likely long-term home is second base. Here are a couple angles of Tailor at the plate (the first clip is a home run and the second clip is a triple). Find more highlights of Tailor from FOF farm director Alex Carver, who advocated for him throughout this past season. joseph tailor hr cf dsl.mp4 7HlSOpJ9eTc4do-z.mp4 What made Tailor's season so strange? His extreme frequency of hit-by-pitches. Opponents plunked Tailor 23 times in only 49 regular season games. He never had a streak longer than five games without taking one for the team. As you might expect, HBP rates in the DSL are higher than other MiLB levels considering how many inexperienced pitchers lack control. Even so, Tailor distinguished himself from his peers in this category. He had nearly twice as many HBPs as any other DSL Miami/Marlins player (INF Breyias Dean had 12). No other hitter in the entire league topped 18 (I'll remind you again, it's a 51-team league). This statistical quirk has no precedent in Marlins minor league history. Across 31 years of Marlins affiliated ball, Tailor's HBP total in 2024 ranks tied for third. The only guys ahead of him, 1998 Alex Melconian (28 HBP) and 2019 Thomas Jones (24 HBP), played well over 100 games at full-season levels. Tailor is tied with 2017 Jarett Rindfleisch, who played 89 games. Tailor's HBP habit came out of nowhere. He was hit by only three pitches in 2023. Let's pretend that was the case again this season and the extra 20 HBP plate appearances never happened—that would have lowered his on-base percentage from .419 to .360. For context, the league-wide OBP in the DSL was .365. It would have been a noteworthy season regardless (wRC+ in the high 120s or low 130s), but the question of whether or not Tailor will be such a ball magnet moving forward has a legitimate impact on his future outlook. Expect some regression from Tailor on balls in play as well. His .362 BABIP will be hard to maintain as he faces higher quality fielders in the U.S. As detailed above, 2024 was Tailor's second trip through the DSL. That in itself suggests his stats shouldn't be weighed too heavily. Position players who spend more than one season in a foreign rookie league seldom taste the majors. The only Marlins player this year who falls into that category is Jhonny Pereda, their afterthought third-string catcher. I'm eager to see how Tailor does in the 2025 Florida Complex League. View full article

Player status updates, insightful stats and more information to fully equip you for today's Marlins game. Here are the latest Miami Marlins game notes, produced by the Marlins communications department and relayed to our loyal SuperSubs. These notes apply to the third and final game of Miami's home series against the Chicago Cubs. View full article